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2017

1) Gao Ya, Wang Huijun, Chen Dong, 2017: Interdecadal variations of the South Asian summer monsoon circulation variability and the associated sea surface temperatures on interannual scales. 34, 7, 816-832. 摘要

We investigated the interannual variability of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) circulation, which has experienced a significant interdecadal change since 2000. This change is primarily influenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. During the pre-2000 period examined in this study (1979‒1999), the SASM is negatively correlated with eastern Pacific SSTs (the canonical El Ni&ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode) and positively correlated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic SST tripole (NAT). During the post-2000 period (2000‒2014), the SASM is negatively correlated with central Pacific SSTs and positively correlated with the positive phase of the NAT pattern. The associated Pacific SSTs change from eastern to central region, leading to the rising (subsiding) branch of the Walker circulation moving westward to the Maritime Continent in the latter period, which can impact the interannual variability of the SASM through modulating the wind field in the troposphere. In addition to Pacific SSTs, the NAT SSTs can propagate energy from North Atlantic to South Asian High (SAH) region through the wave activity flux, then further impact the SASM via SAH.<br /> Because the SASM is intimately related with precipitation over the Asian region, we briefly discuss the features of the precipitation patterns associated with the SASM during the two periods. The westward shifting Walker circulation leads to the shrinking and weakened anomalous westerlies of SASM in the lower level, inducing the Maritime Continent rainfall location moving westward and more moisture from Pacific Ocean can arrive at the Southern China in the latter period.

2) Gao Ya, 2017: Shift of the principal mode of Pan-Asian monsoon summer precipitation in terms of spatial pattern. 10, 3, 221-227. 摘要

In paper, it is documented that the principal mode of the Pan-Asian monsoon summer precipitation has experienced a prominent interdecadal shift around 1992/1993 in terms of spatial pattern and major driving factors. During 1979‒1992 (Period 1‒P1), Pan-Asian monsoon summer precipitation anomalies mainly display a meridional dipole pattern from north to south, whereas in the period 1993‒2016 (Period 2‒P2), it shows a meridional tripole pattern instead. The summer precipitation in P1 is primarily associated with a combination of the developing phase (central-eastern Pacific type) and decaying phase (eastern Pacific type) of El Ni&ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode; while in P2, it is mainly associated with the eastern Pacific type of ENSO decaying phase.<br />

3) Guo Donglin, Li Duo, Hua Wei, 2017: Quantifying air temperature evolution in the permafrost region from 1901 to 2014. International Journal of Climatology, , DOI: 10.1002/joc.5161. 摘要 PDF


4) Chen, H. P., and J. Q. Sun, 2017: Anthropogenic warming has caused hot droughts more frequently in China. Journal of Hydrology, 544, 306-318. 摘要 PDF

Historical records have indicated an increase in high-impact drought occurrences across China during recent decades, but whether this increase is due to natural variability or anthropogenic change remains unclear. Thus, the shift toward dry conditions and their associated attributions across China are discussed<br /> in this study, primarily regarding the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results show that drought occurrences across China increased consistently during 1951&ndash;2014, especially during the recent twenty years. Most of the increased drought events happened under warm-dry conditions that coincided with relatively high temperature anomalies but without large anomalies in annual<br /> precipitation, implying an increase in hot drought events across China. Further analysis revealed that the change in drought occurrences were mainly due to the combined activity of external natural forcings and anthropogenic changes across China. However, external natural forcings were mainly responsible for the variability of droughts and anthropogenic influences for their increasing trends, suggesting that<br /> anthropogenic warming has increased hot drought occurrences, associated risks and impacts across China. With continued warming in the future, the impact of anthropogenic warming on the increased hot drought events will be further amplified. The probability of warm years is projected to significantly increase, and the occurrence probability of hot drought events (SPEI &lt; 1.0) will increase to nearly 100% <a href="http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907102013186.pdf">http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907102013186.pdf</a><br /> by the year 2050, even though the annual precipitation is projected to increase across China in the future.

5) Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, 2017: Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 °C global warming. Climate Dynamics, , DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3469-9. 摘要 PDF


6) 郭东林, 李多, 刘广岳, 2017: 1901~2010年青藏高原土壤温度变化的模拟研究. 第四纪研究, 37, 1101–1109. 摘要 PDF

<a href="http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907030226114.pdf">http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907030226114.pdf</a><br />

7) Yin, Z. C., H. J. Wang, and H. P. Chen, 2017: Understanding severe winter haze events in the North China Plain in 2014: roles of climate anomalies. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1641-1651. 摘要 PDF

Atmospheric pollution has become a serious environmental and social problem in China. Over the past 30 years, the number of winter (December&ndash;February) haze days<br /> over the North China Plain (WHDNCP/ was greatest in 2014. In addition to anthropogenic influence, climate anomalies also played a role. Thus, it is necessary to analyze the anomalous atmosphere circulations associated with haze pollution of this year in detail. Near the surface, the weaker East Asian winter monsoon pattern, causing southerly winds over the North China Plain, could aggravate the situation of haze. In the lower and middle troposphere, taking the anticyclone circulation over North China as an intermediate system, the positive phases of the eastern Atlantic/western Russia (EA/WR), the western Pacific (WP), and the Eurasia (EU) patterns led to a worse air pollution dispersion condition that contributed to a larger number of WHDNCP. In 2014, these three patterns could be recognized from the wind anomalies in the lower troposphere. The preceding autumn (September&ndash;November)<br /> Arctic sea ice (ASI) anomalies over the eastern Hemisphere and the warmer winter surface over Eurasia might have induced or intensified the positive EA/WR pattern in 2014. These two external forcings, together with the pre-autumn sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific, might have also stimulated or enhanced the positive EU-like patterns. The anomalous surface temperature in autumn 2014 was efficient in intensifying anomalous circulations such as the positive phase of the WP pattern. The opposite case of minimum WHDNCP in 2010 further supports the mechanism of how <a href=" since 1999 */white-space: -pre-wrap; /* Opera 4-6 */white-space: -o-pre-wrap; /* Opera 7 */ word-wrap: break-word; /* Internet Explorer 5.5+ */} a:link">since 1999 */white-space: -pre-wrap; /* Opera 4-6 */white-space: -o-pre-wrap; /* Opera 7 */ word-wrap: break-word; /* Internet Explorer 5.5+ */} a:link</a><br /> <a href=" since 1999 */white-space: -pre-wrap; /* Opera 4-6 */white-space: -o-pre-wrap; /* Opera 7 */ word-wrap: break-word; /* Internet Explorer 5.5+ */} a:link">since 1999 */white-space: -pre-wrap; /* Opera 4-6 */white-space: -o-pre-wrap; /* Opera 7 */ word-wrap: break-word; /* Internet Explorer 5.5+ */} a:link</a><br /> EA/WR and WP patterns and associated external factors altered<br /> the local climate conditions to impact the WHDNCP.

8) Chen, H. P., and J. Q. Sun, 2017: Contribution of human influence to increased daily precipitation extremes over China. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 2436-2444. 摘要 PDF

This study provides an estimate of the human influence on increases in daily precipitation extremes over China using data sets from multiple coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The effects of human forcings can be detected in the observed changes of daily precipitation extremes, but the effects of external natural forcings as well as the aerosols are not detected using the optimal fingerprint methods. Estimation showed that human influence has increased daily precipitation extremes by approximately 13% (1% to 25% for 90% confidence interval) on average over China in recent decades. With further warming, human influences on precipitation extremes would be<br /> amplified. For a temperature increase of 1.5&deg;C with respect to the preindustrial time, the occurrence probability of severe extremes is doubled, and approximately 51% of these events occurring over China are attributable to human influences. This fraction increases with temperature. Furthermore, the contributions of human influences are much stronger for the high-percentile extremes, and the highest sensitivity of the<br /> changes in daily precipitation extremes due to human influences is observed in the region of the Tibetan <a href="http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907103804259.pdf">http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907103804259.pdf</a><br /> Plateau in the southwest of China.

9) Chen, H. P., and J. Q. Sun, 2017: Characterizing present and future drought changes over eastern China. Int. J. Climatol., , doi:10.1002/joc.4987. 摘要 PDF

This study aimed to characterize present and future drought changes over eastern China using observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. We used the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration<br /> index (SPEI) to characterize droughts at the timescales of 3- and 12-month. We distinguished the spatial patterns of drought regimes (DRs) using the rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) on the SPEI. Our results identified three DRs centered in northern China (DR1), northeastern China (DR2), and southern China (DR3). Droughts in these regimes have increased in recent decades. Most CMIP5 models reproduce at least two of the DRs. The rotated EOF results indicate that the three DRs can jointly explain 46&ndash;68% of the SPEI variance (compared with approximately 60% in the observations). Among the 33 CMIP5 models analysed in this study, 13 simulated all three DRs well and showed a strong correlation pattern (&gt;0.5). Further analysis indicated that both the external natural and greenhouse gas forcing experiments in CMIP5 reproduced the DRs, implying that natural variability and anthropogenic activity play important roles in the formation of these DRs. With continued climate warming, the three DRs over eastern China will persist. Despite the uncertainties in drought changes that mainly depend on the potential evapotranspiration methods, climate model results suggest that droughts would be aggravated under warming scenarios. The probability of severe droughts increase by the end of the century: 33% in DR1, 25% in DR2, 34% in DR3 in RCP4.5 and almost double in RCP8.5 scenario in <a href=" since 1999 */white-space: -pre-wrap; /* Opera 4-6 */white-space: -o-pre-wrap; /* Opera 7 */ word-wrap: break-word; /* Internet Explorer 5.5+ */} a:link">since 1999 */white-space: -pre-wrap; /* Opera 4-6 */white-space: -o-pre-wrap; /* Opera 7 */ word-wrap: break-word; /* Internet Explorer 5.5+ */} a:link</a><br /> Thornthwaite method based SPEI estimates.

10) Li, H. X., H. P. Chen, and H. J. Wang, 2017: Effects of anthropogenic activity emerging as intensified extreme precipitation over China. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, doi:10.1002/2016JD026251. 摘要 PDF

This study aims to provide an assessment of the effects of anthropogenic (ANT) forcings and other external factors on observed increases in extreme precipitation over China from 1961 to 2005. Extreme precipitation is represented by the annual maximum 1 day precipitation (RX1D) and the annual maximum 5 day consecutive precipitation (RX5D), and these variables are investigated using observations and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The analyses mainly focus on the probability-based index (PI), which is derived from RX1D and RX5D by fitting generalized extreme value distributions. The results indicate that the simulations that include the ANT forcings provide the best representation of the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation over China. We use the optimal fingerprint method to obtain the univariate and multivariate fingerprints of the responses to external forcings. The results show that only the ANT forcings are detectable at a 90% confidence level, both individually and when natural forcings are considered simultaneously. The impact of the forcing associated with greenhouse gases (GHGs) is also detectable in RX1D, but its effects cannot be separated from those of combinations of forcings that exclude the GHG forcings in the two-signal analyses. Besides, the estimated changes of PI, extreme precipitation, and events with a 20 year return period under nonstationary climate states are potentially attributable to ANT or GHG forcings, and the relationships between extreme <a href="http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907104437567.pdf">http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907104437567.pdf</a><br /> precipitation and temperature from ANT forcings show agreement with observations.

11) Chen, H. P., J. Q. Sun, and H. X. Li, 2017: Future changes in precipitation extremes over China using the NEX-GDDP high-resolution daily downscaled data-set. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., , doi:10.1080/16742834.2017.1367625. 摘要 PDF

Recently, a new high-resolution daily downscaled data-set derived from 21 CMIP5 model simulations has been released by NASA, called &lsquo;NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP). In this study, the performance of this data-set in simulating precipitation extremes and long-term climate changes across China are evaluated and compared with CMIP5 GCMs. The results indicate that NEX-GDDP can successfully reproduce the spatial patterns of precipitation extremes over China, showing results that are much closer to observations than the GCMs, with<br /> increased Pearson correlation coefficients and decreased model relative error for most models. Furthermore, NEX-GDDP shows that precipitation extremes are projected to occur more frequently, with increased intensity, across China in the future. Especially at regional to local scales, more information for the projection of future changes in precipitation extremes can be obtained from this high-resolution data-set. Most importantly, the uncertainties of these projections at the regional scale present significant decreases compared with the GCMs, making the projections by NEX-GDDP much more reliable. Therefore, the authors believe that this high-resolution data-set will be popular and widely used in the future, particularly for climate change impact studies in areas where a finer <a href="http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907104822491.pdf">http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907104822491.pdf</a><br /> scale is required.

12) Li, S. L., Z. Han, and H. P. Chen, 2017: A Comparison of the Effects of Interannual Arctic Sea Ice Loss and ENSO on Winter Haze Days: Observational Analyses and AGCM Simulations. J. Meteor. Res., 31(5), doi:10.1007/s13351-017-7017-2. 摘要

This study compares the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss and ENSO [El Ni&ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation] events on winter haze days in mainland China through observational analyses and AGCM sensitive experiments. The results suggest that (1) Arctic sea ice loss favors an increase in haze days in central-eastern China, (2) the impact of ENSO is overall contained within southern China, with increased (reduced) haze days during La Ni&ntilde;a (El Ni&ntilde;o) winters, and (3) the impacts from sea ice loss and ENSO generally add linearly. Mechanistically, Arctic sea ice loss causes quasi-barotropic positive height anomalies over the region from northern Europe to the Ural Mountains (Urals in brief) and weak and negative height anomalies over the region from central Asia to northeastern Asia. The former favors intensified frequency of the blocking over from northern Europe to the Urals, whereas the latter favors an even air pressure distribution over Siberia, Mongolia and East Asia. This large-scale circulation pattern favors a more-frequent occurrence of calm and steady weather in northern China and, as a consequence, increased occurrence of haze days. In comparison, La Ni&ntilde;a (El Ni&ntilde;o) exerts its influence along a tropical pathway by inducing a cyclonic (anticyclonic) lower-tropospheric atmospheric circulation response over the subtropical northwestern Pacific. The northeasterly (southwesterly) anomaly at the northwestern rear of the cyclone (anticyclone) causes reduced (intensified) rainfall over southeastern China, which favors increased (reduced) occurrence of haze days through the rain-washing effect.

13) Yang Liu, Shengping He, Fei Li, Huijun Wang, and Yali Zhu, 2017: Interdecadal change between the Arctic Oscillation and East Asian climate during 1900-2015 winters. Int. J. Climatol., , . 摘要


2016

1) Jiang, D., Z. Tian, and X. Lang, 2016: Reliability of climate models for China through the IPCC Third to Fifth Assessment Reports. International Journal of Climatology, 36(3), 1114–1133, doi:10.1002/joc.4406. 摘要 PDF

Based on observation and reanalysis data, 77 coupled global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third (TAR), Fourth (AR4), and Fifth (AR5) Assessment Reports are evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of surface air temperature at 2 m and precipitation over China and the climatological East Asian monsoon for the late decades of the 20th century. Results show that GCMs reliably reproduce the geographical distribution of the variables considered. Compared with observations, however, most GCMs have topography-related cold biases (although these are smaller than those found in previous studies), excessive precipitation, an underestimated southeast-northwest precipitation gradient, an overestimated magnitude and spatial variability of the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation, and an inadequate strength of the East Asian monsoon circulation. Pairwise comparison reveals that GCMs continue to improve from the TAR via the AR4 to the AR5 for temperature, but have little change for precipitation and the East Asian monsoon. The ability of GCMs varies with season and is affected to certain degree by their horizontal resolutions. Both the arithmetic mean and the median of multiple GCMs are little affected by filtering GCMs in terms of their ability, and the multi-model mean outperforms most of individual GCMs in every respect.

2) 汪君, 王会军, HONG Yang, 2016: 一个新的高分辨率洪涝动力数值监测预报系统. 科学通报, 61(4-5), 518-528. 摘要


3) Jun Wang, Huijun Wang, Yang Hong, 2016: Comparison of satellite-estimated and model-forecasted rainfall data during a deadly debris-flow event in Zhouqu, Northwest China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 9(2), 139-145. 摘要

<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">The data of several rainfall products, including those estimated from satellite measurements and those forecasted via numerical weather modeling, for a severe debris-flow event in Zhouqu, Northwest China, are compared and analyzed in this paper. The satellite products, including CPC MORPHing technique (CMORPH), TMPA-RT, and PERSIANN are all near-real-time retrieved with high temporal and spatial resolutions. The numerical weather model used in this paper for precipitation forecasting is WRF. The results show that all three satellite products can basically reproduce the rainfall pattern, distribution, timing, scale, and extreme values of the event, compared with gauge data. Their temporal and spatial correlation coefficients with gauge data are as high as about 0.6, which is statistically significant at 0.01 level. The performance of the forecasted results modeled with different spatial resolutions are not as good as the satellite-estimated results, although their correlation coefficients are still statistically significant at 0.05 level. From the total rainfall and extreme value time series for the domain, it is clear that, from the grid-to-grid perspective, the passive microwave-based CMORPH and TRMM products are more accurate than the infrared-based PERSIANN, while PERSIANN performs very well from the general point of view, especially when considering the whole domain or the whole convective precipitation system. The forecasted data &mdash; especially the highest resolution model domain data &mdash; are able to represent the total or mean precipitation very well in the research domain, while for extreme values the errors are large. This study suggests that satellite-retrieved and model-forecasted rainfall data are a useful complement to gauge data, especially for areas without gauge stations and areas not covered by weather radars.</span>

4) Liu, Y., and D. Jiang, 2016: Mid-Holocene permafrost: Results from CMIP5 simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(1), 221–240. 摘要


5) Liu, Y., and D. Jiang, 2016: Last glacial maximum permafrost in China from CMIP5 simulations. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 447, 12–21. 摘要


6) 姜大膀, 刘叶一, 2016: 温室效应会使地球温度上升多高? ——关于平衡气候敏感度. 科学通报, 61, 691–694. 摘要


7) Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, 2016: CMIP5 permafrost degradation projection: a comparison among different regions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 4499–4517. 摘要 PDF



8) Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, 2016: Comparison of a very-fine-resolution GCM and RCM dynamical downscaling in simulating climate in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 559–570. 摘要 PDF


9) Guo Donglin, Yu Entao, Wang Huijun, 2016: Will the Tibetan Plateau warming depend on elevation in the future?. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 3969–3978. 摘要 PDF


10) Wang, H. J., and H. P. Chen, 2016: Understanding the recent trend of haze pollution in eastern China: roles of climate change. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4205-4211. 摘要 PDF

In this paper, the variation and trend of haze pollution<br /> in eastern China for winter of 1960&ndash;2012 were analyzed.<br /> With the overall increasing number of winter haze days in<br /> this period, the 5 decades were divided into three sub-periods<br /> based on the changes of winter haze days (WHD) in central<br /> North China (30&ndash;40 N) and eastern South China (south<br /> of 30 N) for east of 109 E mainland China. Results show<br /> that WHD kept gradually increasing during 1960&ndash;1979, remained<br /> stable overall during 1980&ndash;1999, and increased fast<br /> during 2000&ndash;2012. The author identified the major climate<br /> forcing factors besides total energy consumption. Among all<br /> the possible climate factors, variability of the autumn Arctic<br /> sea ice extent, local precipitation and surface wind during<br /> winter is most influential to the haze pollution change. The<br /> joint effect of fast increase of total energy consumption, rapid<br /> decline of Arctic sea ice extent and reduced precipitation and<br /> surface winds intensified the haze pollution in central North<br /> China after 2000. There is a similar conclusion for haze pollution<br /> in eastern South China after 2000, with the precipitation<br /> effect being smaller and spatially inconsistent.

11) Feng, Y., and H. P. Chen, 2016: Warming over the North Pacific can intensify snow events in Northeast China. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 9(2), 122-128. 摘要

The variation of winter snowfall intensity over Northeast China and its relationship with the autumn<br /> North Pacific SST are investigated for the period 1960&ndash;2012. An upward trend is apparent for the<br /> winter snowfall intensity over Northeast China during the last half-century, coinciding with an<br /> increasing autumn SST over the North Pacific. Their interannual correlation coefficient reaches up to<br /> 0.58 for the past five decades, and 0.42 after their trends are removed. Further analyses indicate that<br /> the warming SST during autumn may persist into winter. Correspondingly, large parts of East Asia<br /> and the North Pacific are dominated by an anticyclonic anomaly, which can induce an anomalous<br /> southeasterly over Northeast China, weaken the northerly wind, then warm the surface, increase<br /> the water vapor content and intensify snowfall events. Thus, the autumn North Pacific SST can be<br /> considered as a key predictor for winter snowfall events over Northeast China. Results from leaveone-<br /> out cross-validation and independent validation both show a significant correlation and a<br /> small RMSE between prediction and observation. Therefore, the autumn SST over the North Pacific<br /> is suggested as a potential predictor for winter snowfall intensity in Northeast China.

12) Tian, Z., and D. Jiang, 2016: Revisiting last glacial maximum climate over China and East Asian monsoon using PMIP3 simulations. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 453, 115-126, doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2016.04.020. 摘要 PDF

Using simulations performed by all available climate models participating in the latest Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 3 (PMIP3), we revisited the climate over China and the East Asian monsoon during the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21,000 years ago). Similar to previous results obtained from the PMIP phases 1 and 2 (PMIP1/2) models, all nine models reproduced colder than the pre-industrial annual and seasonal temperatures over China during the LGM and underestimated the annual cooling as evidenced by proxy data. The LGM annual and seasonal precipitation and evaporation over China consistently decreased in the models, whereas the very small LGM change in net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation) differed among models. The annual net precipitation change during the LGM was broadly consistent with reconstructed moisture conditions over most parts of China, especially over the western Tibetan Plateau where the PMIP1/2 models disagreed with the proxy data. Moreover, the LGM winter monsoon circulation weakened (strengthened) over the East Asian continent in four (one) of five models; the summer monsoon circulation generally weakened in two models, whereas it weakened north and strengthened south of about 30N over East Asia in three models. The spatial patterns of the LGM change in East Asian winter and summer monsoons in the PMIP3 models differed somewhat from those in the PMIP1/2 simulations.

13) Zhu, Y.L., T. Wang , H. J. Wang, 2016: Relative contribution of the anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to the interdecadal shift of climate during the late 1970s and 1990s. Science Bulletin, 61, 416-424. 摘要


14) Zhu, Y. L., T. Wang, and J. H. Ma, 2016: Influence of internal decadal variability on the summer rainfall in eastern China as simulated by CCSM4. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 706-714. 摘要


15) Zhu, Y. L., and T. Wang, 2016: The relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO as simulated by CCSM4. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 9, 198-203. 摘要


16) Miao, J. P., T. Wang*, Y. L. Zhu, J. Z. Min, H. J. Wang, D. Guo, 2016: Response of the East Asian winter monsoon to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Journal of Climate, 29, 5041-5057. 摘要


17) Zhu, Y. L., T. Wang, and H. J. Wang, 2016: Relative contribution of the anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to the interdecadal shift of climate during the late 1970s and 1990s. Science Bulletin, 61(5), 416-424. 摘要 PDF

Global warming accelerated after the late 1970s and slowed down after the late 1990s, accompanying the significant interdecadal changes in the regional climate. We hypothesized that the interdecadal changes linearly consisted of two independent components, anthropogenic forcing and natural decadal variability, which can be represented simply by the radiative forcing effect of carbon dioxide eRFCO2 T and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), respectively. The combined effect of the RFCO2 and PDO could explain the majority of the surface temperature changes during the late 1970s and 1990s, but the magnitudes of the relative contribution of the RFCO2 and the PDO are inconsistent in different regions. For both the surface temperature and geopotential height, the RFCO2 could induce significantly positive anomalies over almost the entire globe for these two shifts, exhibiting a larger magnitude in the mid–high latitudes and in the late 1990s shift. The PDO could induce opposite anomalies for the two interdecadal shifts due to its phase transitions (negative–positive–negative). Furthermore, for the shift in the late 1970s, both the RFCO2 (53.7 %–66.7 %) and the PDO (33.3 %–46.3 %) were important in regulating the tropical geopotential height, whereas the RFCO2 dominated the changes in the mid-latitudes. For the western Pacific subtropical high, the RFCO2 (PDO) could explain 52.3 %–62.1 % (37.9 %–47.7 %) of the change. The negative effect of the PDO counteracted most of the RFCO2 effects for the late 1990s shift.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506101248517.pdf



18) Zhu, Y. L., T. Wang, and J. H. Ma, 2016: Influence of internal decadal variability on the summer rainfall in eastern China as simulated by CCSM4. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33(6), 706-714. 摘要 PDF

The combined impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the summer rainfall in eastern China was investigated using CCSM4. The strongest signals occur with the combination of a positive PDO and a negative AMO (+PDO−AMO), as well as a negative PDO and a positive AMO (−PDO+AMO). For the +PDO−AMO set, significant positive rainfall anomalies occur over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YR), when the East Asian summer monsoon becomes weaker, while the East Asian westerly jet stream becomes stronger, and ascending motion over the YR becomes enhanced due to the jet-related secondary circulation. Contrary anomalies occur over East Asia for the −PDO+AMO set. The influence of these two combinations of PDO and AMO on the summer rainfall in eastern China can also be observed in the two interdecadal rainfall changes in eastern China in the late 1970s and late 1990s.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506095958645.pdf




19) Zhu, Y. L., and T. Wang, 2016: The relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO as simulated by CCSM4. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 9(2), . 摘要 PDF

The correlation between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and ENSO reflects the strength of the interaction between climate systems in the low and high latitudes. Based on the long-term (501 years) control simulation of CCSM4, the authors investigated the linkage between the AO and ENSO in boreal winter. Based on the correlation coefficients between them, the authors divided the entire period into two groups: one that included the years with statistically significant correlations (G1), and the other the years with insignificant correlations (G2). In G1, the AO-related atmospheric circulation pattern resembles the ENSO-related one. The Aleutian Low (AL) acts as a bridge linking these two modes. In G2, however, the AO and ENSO signals are confined to the mid-high and mid-low latitudes, respectively. There is no significant linkage between the AO and ENSO in boreal winter, showing a low correlation coefficient. Further analysis suggests that changes in the climatological features, including the strengthened AO, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase, and the weakened AL, may be responsible for the enhanced relationships.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100051252.pdf



20) Miao, J. P., T. Wang, Y.L. Zhu, J. Z. Min, H.J. Wang, D. Guo, 2016: Response of the East Asian winter monsoon to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Journal of Climate, , DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0600.1. 摘要


21) He Shengping, Huijun Wang, 2016: Linkage between the East Asian January temperature extremes and the preceding Arctic Oscillation. International Journal of Climatology, 36, 1026-1032. 摘要 PDF


22) 14) Hao Xin, Fei Li, Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang, and Shengping He, 2016: Assessment of the response of the East Asian winter monsoon to ENSO-like SSTAs in three U.S. CLIVAR Project models. International Journal of Climatology, 36(2), 847-866. 摘要 PDF


23) Miao Jiapeng, Wang Tao, Zhu Yali, Min Jinzhong, Wang Huijun, Guo Dong, 2016: Response of the East Asian winter monsoon to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Journal of Climate, 29(13), 5041-5057. 摘要 PDF


24) Wang Aihui, Zeng Xubin, Guo Donglin, 2016: Estimates of global surface hydrology and heat fluxes from the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) with four atmospheric forcing datasets. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17, 2493–2510. 摘要 PDF


25) Ting-Ting LI, Wei ZHANG, Jun WANG, Wen ZHANG, Guo-Cheng WANG, Jing-Jing XU & Qing ZHANG, 2016: Parameterizing an agricultural production model for simulating nitrous oxide emissions in a wheat–maize system in the North China Plain. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters , 9(6), 403-410. 摘要 PDF

<span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">Concentrations of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O), a potent greenhouse gas, have been continuously increasing, and cropland soils are one of the largest sources of N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O. Variations in environmental and anthropogenic factors have substantial impacts on both the frequency and magnitude of N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O emissions. Based on measurements from a wheat&ndash;maize system in the North China Plain, the authors parameterized the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model, which was initially developed in Australia, for simulating N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O emissions under different agricultural management practices. After calibrating one of the key parameters &ndash; the fraction of N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O lost in nitrification (</span><i style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">k</i><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">) &ndash; the results showed that the model successfully captured the daily N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O fluxes under different nitrogen fertilization treatments, but underestimated some large peak fluxes. By pooling all data together, the calibrated APSIM model also performed well in representing cumulative N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O emissions under various treatments at annual and finer (monthly and daily) time scales.</span><br /> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">农田土壤是大气氧化亚氮的一个重要排放源,农田氧化亚氮的排放同时受到气候环境和人为活动的复杂影响。本文基于中国华北平原的一个农田试验站的观测数据,对农业生产模拟器(APSIM)进行参数化,并检验该模型在不同时间尺度上模拟农田氧化亚氮排放的能力。结果表明,对消化系数(</span><i style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">k</i><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">)进行校正后,模型能够较好地模拟不同时间尺度和不同施肥处理下小麦-玉米系统的土壤氧化亚氮排放,但是对于一些较高的峰值排放模拟效果欠佳。</span>

2015

1) Jiang, D., Z. Tian, and X. Lang, 2015: Mid-Holocene global monsoon area and precipitation from PMIP simulations. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2493-2512, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2175-8. 摘要 PDF

Towards a better insight into orbital-scale changes in global monsoon, here we examine global monsoon area (GMA) and precipitation (GMP) as well as GMP intensity (GMPI) in the mid-Holocene, approximately 6,000 years ago, using all available numerical experiments from the Paleoclimate Modelling intercomparison Project. Compared to the reference period, both the mid-Holocene GMA and GMP increased in the majority of the 35 models chosen for analysis according to their ability, averaging 5.5 and 4.2 %, respectively, which were mainly due to the increase in monsoon area and precipitation over the boreal land and austral ocean. The mid-Holocene GMPI decreased in most models and by an average of 1.2 %, mainly due to the decrease in monsoon precipitation intensity over the boreal ocean and austral land. The mid-Holocene GMA, GMP, and GMPI all showed opposite changes both between the land and ocean in the northern or southern hemisphere and between the boreal and austral land or ocean. Orbital-induced changes in large-scale meridional temperature gradient and land-sea thermal contrast are the underlying mechanisms, and the presence of an interactive ocean has an amplifying effect in the boreal land monsoon areas overall. Qualitatively, the model-data comparison indicates agreement in the boreal land monsoon areas and South America but disagreement in southern Africa and northern Australia.

2) Tian, Z., and D. Jiang, 2015: Mid-Holocene ocean feedback on global monsoon area and precipitation. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8, 29-32, doi:10.3878/AOSL20140068. 摘要 PDF

Mid-Holocene ocean feedback on global monsoon area, global monsoon precipitation (GMP), and GMP intensity (GMPI) was investigated by a set of numerical experiments performed with the Community Climate System Model version 4. Results showed that ocean feedback induced an increase in land monsoon area for northern Africa but a decrease for Asia and North and South America, and led to an increase in ocean monsoon area for the western Indian Ocean and southeastern Pacific but a decrease for the eastern Indian Ocean, tropical western Pacific, and tropical West Atlantic between the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial period. Dynamic ocean-induced changes in GMP and GMPI were 10.9 x 10^9 m^3/d and -0.11 mm/d between the two periods, respectively. Ocean feedback induced consistent change between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere land or ocean but opposite change between land and ocean in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere monsoon areas for monsoon precipitation. The mid-Holocene summer changes in meridional temperature gradient and land-sea thermal contrast were the underlying mechanisms.

3) 田芝平,姜大膀, 2015: 全新世中期和末次冰盛期中国季风区面积和季风降水变化. 科学通报, 60, 400-410, doi:10.1360/N972014-00718. 摘要 PDF

使用国际古气候模拟比较计划第1-3阶段中共61个气候模式的数值试验结果,首先定量评估了它们对于当代中国年平均、夏季和冬季降水气候态的模拟能力,而后根据择优选取的26和16个气候模式分别对全新世中期和末次冰盛期中国季风区面积、季风降水以及季风降水强度变化进行了集中研究。结果表明:相对于参考时期,全新世中期中国季风区面积、季风降水及其强度分别在26、26和22个模式中模拟增加,平均增幅依次为10.7%、18.7%和7.3%,这主要是源于轨道强迫所导致的夏季经向温度梯度的减小以及夏季东亚与临近海域间热力对比的增大,海洋反馈的作用相对有限;上述模拟结果与季风区内的地质记录基本相符。在末次冰盛期,中国季风区面积和季风降水在15个模式中减小、季风降水强度在所有16个模式中减小,平均减幅依次为7.7%、25.1%和14.3%,夏季经向温度梯度的增加以及纬向和经向陆地和海洋间热力对比的减小是其内在动力学机制,海洋反馈有一定的抑制作用;以上模拟结果与季风区内较为有限的地质记录是定性一致的。

4) Wang, H.J., H.P. Chen, and J.P. Liu, 2015: Arctic Sea Ice Decline Intensified Haze Pollution in Eastern China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8(1), 1-9. 摘要

Air quality in eastern China has becoming more and more worrying in recent years, and haze is now No.1 air pollution issue. Results in this study show the decreasing Arctic sea ice (ASI) is an important contributor to the recent increased haze days in eastern China. The authors find that the number of winter haze days (WHD) in eastern China is strongly negatively correlated with the preceding autumn ASI during 1979&ndash;2012, and about 45%&ndash;67% of the WHD interannual to interdecadal variability<br /> can be explained by ASI variability. Following previous studies on the impact of ASI loss on the northern hemisphere climate, the authors&rsquo; studies further reveal that the<br /> reduction of autumn ASI leads to positive sea-level pressure anomalies in mid-latitude Eurasia, northward shift of track of cyclone activity in China, and weak Rossby wave<br /> activity in eastern China south of 40N during winter season. These atmospheric circulation changes favor less cyclone activity and more stable atmosphere in eastern<br /> China, leading to more haze days there. Furthermore, the patterns of circulation changes associated with autumn ASI and WHD are in very good agreement over the East Asia, particularly in eastern China. The authors suggest that haze pollution may continue to be a serious issue in the near future as the decline of ASI continues under<br /> global warming.

5) Yu Entao, Sun Jianqi, Chen Huopo, Xiang Weiling, 2015: Evaluation of a high‑resolution historical simulation over China: climatology and extremes. Climate Dynamics, 45, 2013–2031. 摘要 PDF

China faces an increasing challenge in water resources in the coming decades; thus high-confidence climate projection is of particular importance for the country&rsquo;s future. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of a long high-resolution continuous simulation over China based on multiple observations and the corresponding historical simulation. The simulation is completed by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results show that both MIROC5 and WRF can capture the distribution and variability of temperature over China, whereas WRF shows improvements, particularly for simulation of regional features. Compared with MIROC5, WRF can reproduce the spatial distribution, annual cycle, probability distribution, and seasonal evolution of the precipitation over mainland China and the sub-regions with better performance. The trend is of fundamental importance in the future projection estimations, and WRF shows better skill in simulating the annual mean precipitation trend. However, there is overestimation of precipitation in Southeast China while negative one in the middle latitude of China in WRF simulation, which can be traced back to model bias in atmospheric circulation and water vapor transportation in these regions. Several extreme climate indices are selected to further assess the model&rsquo;s performance in simulating climate extremes, WRF can well reproduce the main features with better model skill compared with MIROC5. The better performance of WRF indicates the necessity of the dynamical downscaling technique and the robustness of regional climate simulation in future regional climate projection.

6) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2015: Assessing model performance of climate extremes in China: an intercomparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3. Climatic Change, , DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1319-5. 摘要 PDF

In this study, we present a brief analysis of the performances of global climate<br /> models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating climate extreme events in China and compare the results with those of the previous model generation (CMIP3). The primary focus of this analysis is the climate mean and variability of each extreme index. Results show that the CMIP5 models are generally able to capture the mean climate extremes and trends compared with a new gridded observational dataset. The model spread for some extreme indices is reduced in CMIP5 when compared with CMIP3. Furthermore, the models generally show higher skills in simulating the temperaturebased indices than the precipitation-based indices in terms of means and linear trends. Results from six reanalyses further reveal large uncertainties for these indices and it is difficult to say which reanalysis is better for comparison with the simulations of all indices. Based on the relative errors of the climatology, the model evaluation varies considerably from one index to another. However, some models appear to perform substantially better than the others when the average of all indices is considered for each model, and the median ensembles outperform the individual models in terms of all the extreme indices and their means. Additionally, a relationship is observed between the improved simulation of the climate mean and the improved performance of its variability, although this improvement is limited to particular models.

7) Q. Yan, Z. Zhang, H. Wang and D. Jiang, 2015: Simulated warm periods of climate over China during the last two millennia: The Sui-Tang warm period versus the Song-Yuan warm period. Journal of Geophysical Research, , . 摘要

当我们回顾中国的历史,唐朝的辉煌常让人津津乐道,宋朝的文弱常让人扼腕叹息。农业社会的中国,其实力的强弱往往和气候联系在一起;气候暖的时候,中国古代社会就会强盛。其实,唐朝和宋朝是我国过去两千年中两个典型的暖期,其温度与二十世纪早期相当。经济、教育、文化和外交在这两个朝代都取得了重要的进展。为什么类似的暖期气候条件会导致让人感觉截然不同的朝代,这是一个非常重要的自然和社会科学问题。利用耦合模式CESM,我们开展了过去两千年(0&minus;2000 AD)的瞬变模拟试验,比较了唐朝初期(650&minus;700 AD)和宋朝初期(950&minus;1000 AD)中国气候变化特征。研究发现尽管这两个时期,中国平均温度均偏高,但在空间分布上有很大的差异。唐朝初期增温主要出现在黄河流域、中原腹地,是区域尺度上大气净能量的增加以及有利的热量输送所造成的;而宋朝初期全国普遍增温,是太阳辐射强度的增加造成的。因此,唐朝暖期是一个区域现象,而宋朝暖期是全球或半球尺度上的暖事件在中国的体现。<br /> Qing Yan,&nbsp;Zhongshi Zhang,&nbsp;Huijun Wang and Dabang Jiang, 2015: Simulated warm periods of climate over China during the last two millennia: The Sui-Tang warm period versus the Song-Yuan warm period, Journal of Geophysical Research, doi: 10.1002/2014JD022941.<br /> 文章链接:<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD022941/abstract">http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD022941/abstract</a><br />
图1. 模拟的唐朝初期(650−700 AD; a)和宋朝初期(950−1000 AD; b)年平均温度的异常。 

8) Baoqiang Tian, Ke Fan, 2015: A skillful prediction model for winter NAO based on Atlantic sea surface temperature and Eurasian snow cover. Weather and Forecasting, 30(1), 197-205. 摘要

摘要:本文基于北大西洋观测的秋季海温和秋季欧亚大陆的雪盖,建立了一个新的预测冬季NAO指数的新方案——方案I。方案I中选取了海温和雪盖的年际增量作为预测因子。为了检验新方案的预测能力,本论文对方案I进行了1950~2011年的交叉检验(62年)和1990~2011(22年)年的独立样本检验。分析结果表明,1950~2011年交叉检验回报的与观测的NAO指数之间相关系数为0.52,两个指数的年际增量相关系数为0.58;22年独立样本检验的相关系数为0.55,年际增量的相关系数为0.74。此外,我们使用北大西洋观测的秋季海温和秋季欧亚大陆的雪盖的距平建立了方案0预测冬季NAO。方案I能够很好的再现冬季NAO的年代际变化趋势。为冬季NAO的预测研究提供了一个新的预测方案,提高了冬季NAO年际变化的预测能力。
引用格式:Tian B. Q., K. Fan. A skillful of prediction model for winter NAO based on Atlantic sea surface temperature and Eurasian snow cover. Weather and Forecasting, 2015, 30(1): 197–205, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00100.1.
全文链接:http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00100.1
附图:预测模型1950~2011年交叉检验的结果(a)冬季NAO指数年际增量的1950~2011年逐年交叉检验预测值(灰线)和观测值(黑线);(b)冬季NAO指数1950~2011年逐年交叉检验预测值(灰线)和观测值(黑线),阴影部分是95%的置信区间。



9) Wang, H. J., K. Fan, J. Q. Sun, S. L. Li, Z. H. Lin, G. Q. Zhou, L. J. Chen, X. M. Lang, F. Li, Y. L. Zhu, H. Chen, and F. Zheng, 2015: A review of seasonal climate prediction research in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 32(2), 149-168. 摘要 PDF

The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950s, based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program (WCRP) was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100721678.pdf



10) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2015: Drought Response to Air Temperature Change over China on the Centennial Scale. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8(3), 113-119. 摘要 PDF

Climate data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) for the period 1901&ndash;2013 are used to investigate the drought response to air temperature change over China on the centennial scale. Drought is observed to have increased evidently across China, except for some regions in eastern China. This increase is much stronger in northern China compared to southern China, especially in Northwest and North China. These change characteristics of drought are closely associated with air temperature change, with the severe droughts in the major drought episodes of the last century generally coinciding with higher temperatures. The significantly increasing trend of drought in China based on observations only appears when considering the effects of air temperature change, which can explain ~49% of droughts in observations and 30%&ndash;65% of droughts in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations. Furthermore, the response of drought to air temperature change<br /> generally increases as the drought time scale increases. Furthermore, drought shows relatively high sensitivity in spring and early summer in China on the centennial scale.

11) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2015: Changes in Drought Characteristics over China Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Journal of Climate, 28, 5430-5447. 摘要 PDF

The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is computed and compared in China using reference evapotranspiration calculated using the Thornthwaite (TH) approach and the Penman-Monteith (PM) equation. The analysis reveals that SPEI_PM outperforms the SPEI_TH with regard to drought monitoring during the period 1961-2012 over China, especially in arid regions of China. Furthermore, the SPEI_PM also performs better with regard to observed variations in soil moisture and streamflow in China. Thus, changes in drought characteristics over China are detected on the basis of variations in the SPEI_PM. The results indicate that droughts over China exhibit pronounced decadal variations over the past 50 years, with more frequent and severe droughts occurring before the 1980s and in the 2000s compared with the 1980s and 1990s. Since the late 1990s, droughts have become more frequent and severe across China, especially in some regions of northern China. Concurrently, consecutive drought events have also increased across China. This suggests that dry conditions in China have been enhanced in recent years. Further analyses illustrate that the temperature and precipitation anomalies exhibit different roles in detecting droughts across China, which is primarily due to the magnitude of their variations and different climate variability. Considering temperature and precipitation perturbations, droughts exhibit relatively larger responses to temperature fluctuations in northern China and relatively larger responses to precipitation anomalies in southern China.

12) Han, T. T., H. P. Chen, and H. J. Wang, 2015: Recent changes in summer precipitation in Northeast China and the background circulation. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.4280, . 摘要

This study documents recent changes in the characteristics of summer (July&ndash;August&ndash;September) precipitation in Northeast China (NEC).Asignificant shift to less precipitation occurred in 1999&ndash;2012 as compared with that in 1984&ndash;1998. The reduced precipitation in the later period is closely associated with the large-scale anomalous high pressure over East Asia and anomalous descending motion over NEC. Furthermore, the significant reductions in the total cloud cover and moisture content also contribute to the reduced precipitation over NEC. To investigate the possible mechanism for the decadal shift of summer precipitation, a northeast Asian summermonsoon (NEASM) index is defined to describe the monsoon circulation over<br /> NEC. The results indicate that the NEASM has weakened since 1999 and is concurrent with the shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to the negative phase. Warming sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific can zonally reduce the land-sea thermal contrast and lead to a weak NEASM. Further investigation indicates that the negative phase of the PDO has significant impacts on the atmospheric circulation associated with the NEASM. Additionally, changes in synchronous Arctic sea ice cover (SIC) also likely induce an anomalous sinking movement and weaken water vapour transport; thus, the summer precipitation over NEC decreases.

13) HE Shengping, 2015: Potential connection between the Australian summer monsoon circulation and summer precipitation over central China. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 8, 120-126. 摘要 PDF


14) Baoqiang Tian,Ke Fan, 2015: Seasonal Prediction Assessment of the South Asian Summer Monsoon: ENSEMBLES versus DEMETER. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8(4), 208–214. 摘要


15) Li Fei, Gao Yongqi, 2015: The Project Siberian High in CMIP5 Models. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 8(4), 179-184. 摘要


16) Li Fei, Wang Huijun, Gao Yongqi, 2015: Extra-tropical ocean warming and wintertime Arctic sea ice cover since the 1990s. J. Climate, 28, 5510–5522. 摘要


17) Chen, H.P., and H. J. Wang, 2015: Haze Days in North China and the associated atmospheric circulations based on daily visibility data from 1960 to 2012. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere, 120, DOI:10.1002/2015JD023225. 摘要 PDF

Haze is a severe hazard that greatly influences traffic and daily life with great economic losses and threats to human health. To enhance understanding of the haze occurrences, this study examined the haze variations over North China and their associated atmospheric circulations for the period of 1960-2012 using daily visibility data. Results indicate that the haze events over this region primarily occur in boreal winter of year and mainly in the morning of day. The results of the analysis of the long-term variations indicate that the annual haze days were relatively few in the 1960s but increased steeply in the 1970s and have remained stable to the present. Some differences are obvious among seasons. A stably increasing trend is discernable in summer and autumn, relatively low in the 1960s and the 1990s&ndash;2000s and relatively high in the 1970s&ndash;1980s in spring and winter. Haze variations in urban regions are quite similar to haze variations in rural regions but with more haze days in urban regions because of the high aerosol emissions. Further analyses indicate that the occurrences of severe haze events in boreal winter generally correlate with the weakened northerly winds and the development of inversion anomalies in the lower troposphere, the weakened East Asian trough in the midtroposphere, and the northward East Asian jet in the high troposphere. All of these factors provide a favorable atmospheric background for the maintenance and development of haze events in this region.http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2015/0630/20150630081738611.pdf

18) Jiang, D., Z. Tian, X. Lang, M. Kageyama, and G. Ramstein, 2015: The concept of global monsoon applied to the last glacial maximum: A multi-model analysis. Quaternary Science Reviews, 126, 126-139. 摘要 PDF

The last glacial maximum (LGM, ca. 21,000 years ago) has been extensively investigated for better understanding of past glacial climates. Global-scale monsoon changes, however, have not yet been determined. In this study, we examine global monsoon area (GMA) and precipitation (GMP) as well as GMP intensity (GMPI) at the LGM using the experiments of 17 climate models chosen from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) according to their ability to reproduce the present global monsoon climate. Compared to the reference period (referring to the present day, ca. 1985, for three atmospheric plus two atmosphere-slab ocean models and the pre-industrial period, ca. 1750, for 12 fully coupled atmosphere-ocean or atmosphere-ocean-vegetation models), the LGM monsoon area increased over land and decreased over the oceans. The boreal land monsoon areas generally shifted southward, while the northern boundary of land monsoon areas retreated southward over southern Africa and South America. Both the LGM GMP and GMPI decreased in most of the models. The GMP decrease mainly resulted from the reduced monsoon precipitation over the oceans, while the GMPI decrease was derived from the weakened intensity of monsoon precipitation over land and the boreal ocean. Quantitatively, the LGM GMP deficit was due to, first, the GMA reduction and, second, the GMPI weakening. In response to the LGM large ice sheets and lower greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, the global surface and tropospheric temperatures cooled, the boreal summer meridional temperature gradient increased, and the summer land-sea thermal contrast at 40S-70N decreased. These are the underlying dynamic mechanisms for the LGM monsoon changes. Qualitatively, simulations agree with reconstructions in all land monsoon areas except in the western part of northern Australia where disagreements occur and in South America and the southern part of southern Africa where there is uncertainty in reconstructions. Simulations do not support an inter-hemispheric anti-phasing of monsoon intensity change as suggested by proxy data.

19) Li, X., D. Jiang, Z. Zhang, R. Zhang, Z. Tian, and Q. Yan, 2015: Mid-Pliocene westerlies from PlioMIP simulations. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 32, 909-923. 摘要 PDF

The midlatitude westerlies are one of the major components of the global atmospheric circulation. They play an important role in midlatitude weather and climate, and are particularly significant in interpreting aeolian sediments. In this study, we analyzed the behavior and the possible mechanism involved in the change of the westerlies, mainly in terms of the jet stream position, in the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3 to 3.0 million years ago) using simulations of 15 climate models from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Compared to the reference period, the mid-Pliocene midlatitude westerlies generally shifted poleward (approximately 3.6◦ of latitude in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.9◦ of latitude in the Southern Hemisphere at 850 hPa level) with a dipole pattern. The dipole pattern of the tropospheric zonal wind anomalies was closely related to the change of the tropospheric meridional temperature gradient as a result of thermal structure adjustment. The poleward shift of the midlatitude westerly jet corresponded to the poleward shift of the mean meridional circulation. The sea surface temperatures and sea ice may have affected the simulated temperature structure and zonal winds, causing the spread of the westerly anomalies in the mid-Pliocene between the atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations.

20) Tian, Z., and D. Jiang, 2015: Revisiting mid-Holocene temperature over China using PMIP3 simulations. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8, 358-364, doi:10.3878/AOSL20150040. 摘要 PDF

Using the simulations performed by 15 climate models under the latest protocol of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) Phase 3 (PMIP3), the authors revisited the annual and seasonal temperature changes over China during the mid-Holocene. Similar to the previous results produced by PMIP Phase 1 (PMIP1) and 2 (PMIP2) models, 14 (15) of the 15 PMIP3 models reproduced colder annual (boreal winter and spring) temperature in response to mid-Holocene insolation changes, with an average cooling of 0.33 K (1.31 K and 1.58 K) over China. The mid-Holocene boreal summer (autumn) temperature increased in all (13) of the 15 PMIP3 models, with an average warming of 1.02 K (0.61 K) at the national scale. Those changes simulated by the PMIP3 models were similar to those from the PMIP2 simulations but generally weaker than those from the PMIP1 models. A considerable mismatch still existed between the simulated cooling by the PMIP3 models and the reconstructed warming for annual and winter temperatures over China during the mid-Holocene, as was also the case between the previous PMIP1/2 simulations and proxy data.

21) Yu Entao, Xiang Weiling, 2015: Projected Climate Change in the Northwestern Arid Regions of China: An Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8 (3), 134-142. 摘要 PDF


22) 于恩涛,孙建奇,吕光辉,陈活泼,向伟玲 , 2015: 西部干旱区未来气候变化高分辨率预估. 干旱区地理, 38(3), 429-437. 摘要 PDF

<span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: tahoma, arial; font-size: 14px;">利用高分辨率区域气候模式WRF,基于CMIP5计划中MIROC5输出结果,进行了我国高分辨率(30 km)的历史模拟及未来预估。针对我国西部干旱区,在模式验证的基础上分析了该区域未来气温和降水的变化。历史模拟结果显示WRF对我国西部干旱区有较好的模拟能力,模拟结果较MIROC5有明显改进。21世纪西部干旱区将持续增暖,末期的增温幅度明显高于中期。和全国平均相比,西部干旱区21世纪增温幅度高于全国平均水平。空间分布上,年平均气温变化的主要特征是新疆南部增温高于新疆北部,山区的增温高于盆地。气温季节变化主要表现为夏季增温集中在山区,而冬季增温则更多集中在盆地。西部干旱区降水在21世纪总体呈现减少趋势,夏季降水减少更为明显,这和全国平均的降水增加并不一致。空间分布上,降水变化的主要特征是山区降水减少,其中夏季山区降水减少十分明显,而盆地降水则略有增加。</span>

23) Li, H. X., H. P. Chen, and H. J. Wang, 2015: Changes in clustered extreme precipitation events in South China and associated atmospheric circulations. Int. J. Climatol., DOI:10.1002/joc.4549, . 摘要 PDF

Previous studies have documented that the summer precipitation over South China (SC) has experienced a prominent inter-decadal increase in 1992/1993, and the possible mechanism has been well revealed. The aim of this study is to investigate the changes in extreme precipitation and clustered extreme precipitation events in recent decades using station observations and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The results indicate that extreme precipitation also experienced a significant inter-decadal increase around 1992/1993. Significant changes can also be found in the associated atmospheric circulations, such as the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and the westerly jet stream over East Asia. In addition, the water vapour transport (WVT) related to extreme precipitation differed from mean conditions. For extreme precipitation events, the WVT from the Northwest Pacific and Indian Oceans was much stronger when compared with mean precipitation. When extreme<br /> precipitation events were clustered, the increased WVT mainly originated from the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean. Further analysis indicates that theWVTincreased from the Indian Ocean but decreased from theNorthwest Pacific after 1992/1993; this finding explains the significant increase in the clustered extreme precipitation events over SC after 1992/1993. In addition, the atmospheric stratification has become more unstable since 1992/1993.

24) Li Fei, Wang Huijun, Gao Yongqi, 2015: Change in Sea Ice Cover is Responsible for Non-Uniform Variation in Winter Temperature over East Asia. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 8(6), 376–382. 摘要


25) Hao Xin, Li Fei, Sun Jianqi., Wang H. and He S., 2015: Assessment of the response of the East Asian winter monsoon to ENSO like SSTAs in three U.S. CLIVAR Project models. Int. J. Climatol., , . 摘要


26) Zhu, Y. L., H. J. Wang, J. H. Ma, T. Wang, and J. Q. Sun, 2015: Contribution of the phase transition of Pacific decadal oscillation to the late 1990s’ shift in East China summer rainfall. Journal of Geophysical Research, 120(17), 8817-8827. 摘要 PDF

Based on our previous study, the interdecadal changes in summer rainfall over East China in the late 1990s are further explored here. The increased local rising motion is implicated as the dominant factor of increased rainfall in the lower Huang-Huai River valley (LHR). Both the observation and numerical experiments using Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 suggest that the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) mode can result in rising anomalies and thus more rainfall in the LHR. The East Asian westerly jet stream (EAWJS) is suggested as a bridge to link the Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies and East Asian summer rainfall. Model results reveal that the negative PDO mode can lead to significant easterly anomalies over East Asia. As a result, the EAWJS is weakened and shifts poleward, which coincides with observed changes in EAWJS after the late 1990s. In addition, weakened and poleward shifted EAWJS can result in an anomalous ascending motion to its south (in the LHR) by modulating the jet-related secondary meridional-vertical circulation. Consequently, rainfall increased in the LHR after the late 1990s. Besides, the positive Atlantic Meridional Oscillation can only induce insignificant changes over East Asia and partly counteract the negative PDO effect there.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506095744453.pdf



27) Zhou, X., S. Li, F. Luo, Y. Gao, and T. Furevik, 2015: Air-Sea Coupling Enhances East Asian Winter Climate Response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Adv. Atmos. Sci., 32(12), 1647-1659. 摘要


28) Li, S., Jing, Y. and F. Luo, 2015: The potential connection between China surface air temperature and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the Pre-industrial Period. Science China: Earth Sciences, 58, doi: 10.1007/s11430-015-5091-9. 摘要


29) Guo Donglin, Sun Jianqi, 2015: Permafrost thaw and associated settlement hazard onset timing over the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 6, 347–358. 摘要 PDF


30) 张人禾, 苏凤阁, 江志红, 高学杰, 郭东林, 等, 2015: 青藏高原21世纪气候和环境变化预估研究进展. 科学通报, 60, 3036–3047. 摘要 PDF


31) Zhu, Y. L., H. J. Wang, J. H. Ma, T. Wang, J. Q. Sun, 2015: Contribution of the phase transition of Pacific Decadal Oscillation to the late 1990s’ shift in East China summer rainfall. Journal of Geophysical Research, 120, 8817-8827. 摘要


32) He Shengping, 2015: Asymmetry in the Arctic Oscillation teleconnection with January cold extremes in Northeast China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8(6), 386-391. 摘要 PDF


33) Hao Xin, Shengping He, Huijun Wang, 2015: Asymmetry in the response of central Eurasian winter temperature to AMO. Climate Dynamics, , 1-16. 摘要 PDF


34) 9) Gao Yongqi, Jianqi Sun, Fei Li, Shengping He, Stein Sandven, Qing Yan, Zhongshi Zhang, Katja Lohmann, Noel Keenlyside, Tore Furevik, Lingling Suo, 2015: Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 32(1), 92-114. 摘要 PDF


2014

1) Yu, E.T., T. Wang, Y. Q. Gao, and W. L. Xiang, 2014: Precipitation Pattern of the Mid-Holocene Simulated by a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-3178-9, . 摘要

Early proxy-based studies suggested that there potentially occurred a &ldquo;southern drought/northern flood&rdquo; (SDNF) over East China in the mid-Holocene (from roughly 7000 to 5000 years before present). In this study, we used both global and regional atmospheric circulation models to demonstrate that the SDNF&mdash;namely, the precipitation increases over North China and decreases over the the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley&mdash;could have taken place in the mid-Holocene. We found that the SDNF in the mid-Holocene was likely caused by the lower SST in the Pacific. The lowered SST and the higher air temperature over mainland China increased the land--sea thermal contrast and, as a result, strengthened the East Asian summer monsoon and enhanced the precipitation over North China.

2) Wang, A. and X. Zeng, 2014: Land surface air temperature diurnal range over high northern latitudes. Journal of Geophysical Research, in press, . 摘要


3) Ge, J.Y., Z. T. Guo, D. Zhao, Y. Zhang, T. Wang, L. Yi, C. L. Deng, 2014: Spatial variations in paleowind direction during the last glacial period in north China reconstructed from variations in the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility of loess deposits. Tectonophysics, 629, 353–361. 摘要

Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) of Chinese loess is considered to be an effective tool for determining paleowind direction. However, the relationship between AMS and the paleowind direction is still a matter of debate. This study reports the results of AMS measurements of Chinese loess deposited during the last glacial period on slopes of varying slope angles and orientations. The sites are located on the Chinese Loess Plateau, in West Qinling, and on the eastern margin of Qilian Mountain. The results show that within the same region, magnetic lineations are clustered along similar orientations despite differences in slope exposure and slope angle, but that different regions exhibit different directions of magnetic lineation. These results suggest that the alignment of the magnetic grains during deposition of the eolian deposits was determined by air circulation rather than by water flow on the surface of the slopes, and therefore that the AMS of Chinese loess can be used to determine paleowind directions. In addition, our results indicate that the AMS of Chinese loess is determined mainly by the patterns of regional surface wind flow that occurred during dust accumulation rather than by the uniform pattern of large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition, since wind direction is influenced significantly by regional topography, the AMS of Chinese loess may have the potential to detect significant changes in past regional topography.

4) Yan, Q., H. J. Wang, O. M. Johannessen, and Z. S. Zhang, 2014: Greenland ice sheet contribution to future global sea level rise based on CMIP5 models. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 31(1), 8-16. 摘要

    格陵兰冰盖是现代北半球唯一的陆地冰盖,其物质平衡变化对全球海平面上升具有重要的影响。同时,格陵兰冰盖融化将导致大量的淡水注入到北大西洋,减弱北大西洋经圈翻转环流,进而影响到全球气候。因此,本文利用最新的CMIP5模式预估结果和冰盖模式SICOPOLIS,模拟研究了21世纪格陵兰冰盖物质平衡的变化以及冰盖融化对全球海平面上升的贡献。在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下,SICOPOLIS模拟结果表明,格陵兰冰盖融化将导致全球海平面在2100年时分别上升0&minus;16 cm和0&minus;27 cm(相对于1986&minus;2005);如果考虑未来冰盖底部滑动加倍,全球海平面将分别上升7&minus;22 cm和7&minus;33 cm。基于多模式集合平均的结果,全球海平面在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下将分别上升4 cm和7 cm(考虑底部滑动增强时,分别为10 cm和13 cm)。上述海平面预估的不确定性正反映了在相同的外部强迫下全球模式预估结果的离散性,而评估模式并选择性的使用模式可以在一定程度上减小海平面预估的不确定范围。</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

5) Li, F., H. J. Wang, and Y. Q. Gao, 2014: Modulation of Aleutian Low and Antarctic Oscillation co-variability by ENSO. Climate Dyn, , . 摘要

    本文利用NCEP-NCAR再分析资料和NCAR CAM3,发现1月份AL和AAO之关系在1990s末之后显著加强,由之前的没有显著相关,变成了AL&ndash;(-AAO)显著正相关。进一步的研究表明,1990s末之后,ENSO在热带东太平洋引起垂直运动距平相对偏强,同时,东太平洋对流层高层的辐散也偏强,经向Hadley环流偏强。ENSO与南、北半球大气环流及气候联系加强是造成AL和AAO之关系加强的主要原因。</div>

6) Sui, Y., X. Lang, and D. Jiang, 2014: Time of emergence of climate signals over China under the RCP4.5 scenario. Climatic Change, 125, 265-276. 摘要


7) Ke Fan, Zhiqing Xu, Baoqiang Tian, 2014: Has the intensity of the interannual variability in summer rainfall. Meteorol Atmos Phys, 124, 23–32. 摘要


8) Yu Entao, Wang Tao, Gao Yongqi, Xiang Weiling, 2014: Precipitation Pattern of the Mid-Holocene Simulated by a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 31, 4. 摘要 PDF

Early proxy-based studies suggested that there potentially occurred a “southern drought/northern flood” (SDNF) over East China in the mid-Holocene (from roughly 7000 to 5000 years before present). In this study, we used both global and regional atmospheric circulation models to demonstrate that the SDNF—namely, the precipitation increases over North China and decreases over the the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley—could have taken place in the mid-Holocene.
We found that the SDNF in the mid-Holocene was likely caused by the lower SST in the Pacific. The lowered SST and the higher air temperature over mainland China increased the land–sea thermal contrast and, as a result, strengthened the East Asian summer monsoon and enhanced the precipitation over North China.

9) 潘攀,祝亚丽,王纪军, 2014: 近50年黄河流域气温变化特征及背景分析. 气候与环境研究, 19(4), 477-485. 摘要 PDF

利用1961~2010年黄河流域142个气象观测站的资料,详细分析了近50年黄河流域气温的时空分布和变化特征。黄河流域四季平均气温均呈现东部高、西部低、南部高、北部低的空间型态。对流域气温进行经验正交分解,第一模态呈现全流域一致的增温形势,上游增温幅度最大[0.40 °C (10 a)−1];第二模态表现为东西部反相变化;第三模态为南北部反相变化。四季气温随时间变化均呈现上升趋势,升温幅度冬季最大[0.52°C (10 a)1],其次是春季[0.30 °C (10 a)−1]、秋季[0.26 °C (10 a)−1]、夏季[0.14 °C (10 a)−1]。进一步分析表明,近50年来,黄河流域的气温增暖除了全球变暖的影响,可能还来自1980年代中期和1990年代后期两次年代际增暖的贡献,这与东亚季风的两次年代际变化时间节点是一致的。

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100657995.pdf



10) Zhang, R., D. Jiang, Z. Zhang, and E. T. Yu, 2014: The impact of regional uplift of the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian monsoon climate. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology, 417, 137-150. 摘要

<strong>青藏高原不同区域隆升对亚洲季风气候的影响</strong><br /> &nbsp;<br /> 青藏高原隆升的气候效应是古气候研究中的热点问题。以往研究中多将青藏高原作为一个整体来进行考虑,但越来越多的地质证据表明,青藏高原的不同区域存在隆升时间上的差异,所以有必要对青藏高原不同区域隆升的气候效应进行深入研究。虽然已有一些关注高原区域隆升的文章,但这些文章对青藏高原的区域划分较粗,没有划分出高原的东部和西部,并且仅仅关注了对夏季气候的影响。<br /> 基于此:本文就两个科学问题进行了研究:<br /> 1)青藏高原的东部和西部的隆升气候效应是什么?<br /> 2)青藏高原那些区域的隆升对东亚冬季风演变的影响更大?<br /> 模拟结果显示,对于南亚夏季风来说,喜马拉雅以及高原中南部的隆升对南亚夏季降水的增加影响较小。而高原东部和西部的进一步隆升对南亚夏季风的增强有显著作用。高原东部隆升后,由于地形的阻挡,在孟加拉湾地区低层产生异常的气旋性环流,同时上升运动增强,从而有利于区域降水的形成。而高原西部的隆起进一步增强了隆升区周围的气旋性环流,使得来自海洋的水汽输送增加,所以区域降水也出现增加。<br /> 对于东亚冬季风。模拟结果显示东亚冬季风的增强与青藏高原特定区域的隆升密切相关。其中,高原中南部、高原北部以及其他北部地形对东亚冬季风的增强有更为重要的作用,而其他区域的隆升作用较小。<br /> 引用格式:Zhang, R., D. Jiang, Z. Zhang, and E. T. Yu, 2015: The impact of regional uplift of the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian monsoon climate. <em>Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology</em>, <strong>417</strong>, 137&ndash;150.<br /> 正文下载地址:<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018214005458">http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018214005458</a><br />

11) Chen, H.P., J.Q. Sun, and X.L. Chen, 2014: Projection and uncertainty analysis of global precipitation-related extremes using CMIP5 models. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 2730-2748. 摘要

Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of precipitation-related extremes and to increase drought and flood risk. Thus, future changes in dryness and wetness over global land areas are analysed using future climate simulations from the World Climate Research Programme&rsquo;s (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP4.5 forcing scenario. Model reproducibility is evaluated first, and it is shown that high performance can be achieved in present-day climate simulations by models, particularly in multi-model ensemble (MME) results. For future climate simulations, the highest reliability regarding changes in precipitation and its related extremes is found over Northern high latitudes, while the lowest confidence levels are mainly localized over the tropics. The projections indicate a high likelihood that there will be a shift to fewer dryness but to more extreme precipitation events or/and flood events in future over Northern high latitudes. Among populated areas, Mediterranean basin is highlighted as displaying<br /> a relatively high reliability of increases in both dryness and wetness indicators, implying increased probabilities of both drought and flood events, despite the fact that there would be less precipitation. In North America and Asian monsoon areas, dryness indictors show no obvious changes, while markedly increases are found in wetness indicators, concurrent with a high model agreement. In contrast, southern Africa, Australia, and the Amazon basin show relatively high reliability regarding increases in dryness, but a low confidence level in wetness. The severity of these changes is not uniform across annual and seasonal scales and is region dependent. Two sources of uncertainty in projections are investigated in this study: internal and inter-model variability. The analysis indicates that internal and inter-model variability are the dominant sources of uncertainty in extreme climate projections, and inter-model variability is much larger and increases with time. Further analysis shows that both sources of uncertainty generally perform lower on annual and global scales than on seasonal and regional ones.

12) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2014: Changes in climate extreme events in China associated with warming. International Journal of Climatology, , doi:10.1002/joc.4168. 摘要

The science that humans are the cause of global warming, and that the associated climate change would lead to serious changes in climate extreme events, food production, freshwater resources, biodiversity, human mortality, etc. is unequivocal. After several political negotiations, a 2 ∘C warming has been considered to be the benchmark for such damaging changes. However, an increasing amount of scientific research indicates that higher levels of warming are increasingly likely. What would the world be like if such higher levels of warming occurred? This study aims to provide information for better politically driven mitigation through an investigation of the changes in temperature- and precipitation-based extreme indices using CMIP5 (coupled model intercomparison project phase 5) simulations of a warming of 1, 2, and 3 ∘C in China.Warming simulations show more dramatic effects in China compared with the global average. In general, the results show relatively small change signals in climate extreme events in China at 1 ∘C, larger anomalies at 2 ∘C, and stronger and more extended anomalies at 3 ∘C. Changes in the studied temperature indices indicate thatwarm eventswould bemore frequent and stronger in the future, and that cold events would be reduced and weakened. For changes in the precipitation indices, extreme precipitation generally increases faster than total wet-day precipitation, and China will experience more intensified extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, the risk of flooding is projected to increase, and the dry conditions over northern China are projected to be mitigated. In certain regions, particularly Southwest China, the risks of both drought and flood events would likely increase despite the decreased total precipitation in the future. Uncertainties mainly derived from inter-model and scenario variabilities are attached to these projections, but a high model agreement can be generally observed in the likelihood of these extreme changes.

13) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2014: Robustness of Precipitation Projections in China: Comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3 Models. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 7(1), 67-73. 摘要

Three sources of uncertainty in model projections of precipitation change in China for the 21st century were separated and quantified: internal variability, inter-model variability, and scenario uncertainty. Simulations from models involved in the third phase and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project<br /> (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were compared to identify improvements in the robustness of projections from the latest generation of models. No significant differences were<br /> found between CMIP3 and CMIP5 in terms of future precipitation projections over China, with the two datasets both showing future increases. The uncertainty can be<br /> attributed firstly to internal variability, and then to both inter-model and internal variability. Quantification analysis revealed that the uncertainty in CMIP5 models has<br /> increased by about 10%&ndash;60% with respect to CMIP3, despite significant improvements in the latest generation of models. The increase is mainly due to the increase of internal variability in the initial decades, and then mainly due to the increase of inter-model variability thereafter, especially by the end of this century. The change in scenario uncertainty shows no major role, but makes a negative<br /> contribution to begin with, and then an increase later.

14) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2014: Sensitivity of Climate Changes to CO2 Emissions in China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 7(5), 422-427. 摘要

In this study, the authors demonstrate that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models project a robust response in changes of mean and<br /> climate extremes to warming in China. Under a scenario of a 1% CO2 increase per year, surface temperature in China is projected to increase more rapidly than the<br /> global average, and the model ensemble projects more precipitation (2.2%/&deg;C). Responses in changes of climate extremes are generally much stronger than that of climate means. The majority of models project a consistent response, with more warm events but fewer cold events in China due to CO2 warming. For example, the ensemble mean indicates a high positive sensitivity for increasing summer days (12.4%/&deg;C) and tropical nights (26.0%/&deg;C), but a negative sensitivity for decreasing frost days (&minus;4.7%/&deg;C) and ice days (&minus;7.0%/&deg;C). Further analyses indicate that precipitation in China is likely to become more extreme, featuring a high positive sensitivity. The sensitivity is high (2.4%/&deg;C) for heavy precipitation days (&gt; 10 mm d&minus;1) and increases dramatically (5.3%/&deg;C) for very heavy precipitation days (&gt; 20 mm d&minus;1), as well as for precipitation amounts on very wet days (10.8%/&deg;C) and extremely wet days (22.0%/&deg;C). Thus, it is concluded that the more extreme precipitation events generally show higher sensitivity to CO2 warming. Additionally, southern China is projected to experience an increased risk of drought and flood occurrence, while an increased risk of flood but a decreased risk of drought is likely in other regions of China.

15) Li Fei, Huijun Wang, Jiping Liu, 2014: The strengthening relationship between Arctic Oscillation and ENSO after the mid-1990s. Int. J. Climatol., 34(7), 2515-2521. 摘要


16) Li Fei and Huijun Wang, 2014: Autumn Eurasian snow depth, autumn Arctic sea ice cover and East Asian winter monsoon. Int. J. Climatol., 34(13), 3616–3625. 摘要


17) Li Fei, Huijun Wang, Yongqi Gao, 2014: On the strengthened relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic Oscillation: A comparison of 1950–1970 and 1983–2012. Journal of Climate, 27(13), 5075-5091. 摘要


18) Li Fei, Huijun Wang, Yongqi Gao, 2014: Modulation of Aleutian Low and Antarctic Oscillation co-variability by ENSO. Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2134-4, . 摘要


19) Luo, F., and S. Li, 2014: Joint statistical-dynamical approach to decadal prediction of East Asian surface air temperature. Science China: Earth Sciences, 57(12), 3062–3072. 摘要

A joint statistical-dynamical method addressing both the internal decadal variability and effect of anthropogenic forcing was developed to predict the decadal components of East Asian surface air temperature (EATs) for three decades (2010–2040). As previous studies have revealed that the internal variability of EATs (EATs_int) is influenced mainly by the ocean, we first analyzed the lead-lag connections between EATs_int and three sea surface temperature (SST) multidecadal modes using instrumental records from 1901 to 1999. Based on the lead-lag connections, a multiple linear regression was constructed with the three SST modes as predictors. The hindcast for the years from 2000 to 2005 indicated the regression model had high skill in simulating the observational EATs_int. Therefore, the prediction for EATs_int (Re_EATs_int) was obtained by the regression model based on quasi-periods of the decadal oceanic modes. External forcing from greenhouse gases is likely associated with global warming. Using monthly global land surface air temperature from historical and projection simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario of 19 Coupled General Circulation Models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we predicted the curve of EATs (EATs_trend) relative to 1970–1999 by a second-order fit. EATs_int and EATs_trend were combined to form the reconstructed EATs (Re_EATs). It was expected that a fluctuating evolution of Re_EATs would decrease slightly from 2015 to 2030 and increase gradually thereafter. Compared with the decadal prediction in CMIP5 models, Re_EATs was qualitatively in agreement with the predictions of most of the models and the multi-model ensemble mean, indicating that the joint statistical-dynamical approach for EAT is rational.

20) Gao Yongqi, Sun Jianqi, Li Fei, He Shengping, Stein Sandven, Yan Qing, Zhang Zhongshi, Katja Lohmann, Noel Keenlyside, Tore Furevik, Suo Lingling, 2014: Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,, 32(1), 92-114. 摘要


21) Yanyan Huang, Huijun Wang, Ke Fan and Yongqi Gao, 2014: The Western Pacific Subtropical High after the 1970s: Westward or Eastward Shift?. Climate Dynamics, , . 摘要

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22) Yanyan Huang, Huijun Wang, and Ke Fan, 2014: Improving the Prediction of the Summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation Using the Interannual Increment Approach. Journal of Climate, 27, 8126–8134. 摘要

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23) Ma Jiehua, Wang Huijun, Zhang Ying, 2014: Will typhoon over the western North Pacific be more frequent in the blue Arctic conditions?. Science China: Earth Sciences, 57(7), 1494-1500. 摘要

    未来的全球变暖情景下, 西北太平洋台风活动会有怎样的变化? 利用CMIP3 模式在IPCC A1B情景下对未来气候的预估结果, 得到全球变暖之北极夏季(September)无海冰时的一种情景, 即蓝色北极. 利用相应的海温场和CO2 含量驱动一个全球大气环流模式, 来对北极夏季无海冰时的西北太平洋台风生成环境做出数值模拟. 试验结果表明, 蓝色北极情况下,6~10 月西北太平洋的大气环流和海洋环流都发生了明显变化, 影响台风活动的主要环境要素:纬向风垂直切变和向外射出长波辐射空间分布的变化分别有利于台风源地向偏西、偏北转变;与台风频数有密切联系的关键区中上述量的变化且皆利于台风频次的减少. 热带气旋生成潜力指数的变化表现为西北太平洋东部减小, 而西部增大. 因而呈现了非常复杂的变化格局.

24) Ma Jiehua, Wang Huijun, 2014: Design and testing of a global climate prediction system based on a coupled climate model. Science China: Earth Sciences, 57(10), 2417-2427. 摘要

    基于美国通用气候系统模式CCSM4 和自行设计的一套初始化方案, 建立了一个全球气候预测系统(PCCSM4), 并使用该预测系统对夏季气候进行了30 年(1981~2010)系统性的超前一个月的集合回报试验. 回报结果表明, PCCSM4 基本可以把握观测中夏季(JJA)平均海表面温度(SST)、海平面气压(SLP)和降水的主要分布特征; PCCSM4 对SST, 尤其是赤道中东太平洋关键区SST 具有较高的回报能力, 30 年的相关系数最高可达0.7; PCCSM4 对500 hPa 位势高度场、850hPa 纬向风场和海平面气压场的回报性能高于降水; 总的来看, 热带地区的可预测性高于全球,更高于东亚地区; PCCSM4 对于典型ENSO 年的夏季气候和亚洲夏季风的年际变化具有较好的回报能力, 经过进一步的检验和完善可以应用于全球和我国短期气候预测业务.

25) Liu Na, Shuanglin Li, 2014: Predicting Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze-Huai Region Based on Time-scale Decomposition Statistical Downscaling. Weather and Forecasting, 29, 162-176. 摘要


26) DONG Xiao, SU Tong-Hua, WANG Jun, LIN Ren-Ping, 2014: Decadal Variation of the Aleutian Low-Icelandic Low Seesaw Simulated by a Climate System Model (CAS-ESM-C). Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 7(2), 110-114. 摘要

<div>&nbsp;</div> <span style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;">Based on a simulation using a newly developed climate system model (Chinese Academy of Sciences-Earth System Model-Climate system component, CAS-ESM-C), the author investigated the Aleutian Low-Icelandic Low Seesaw (AIS) and its decadal variation. Results showed that the CAS-ESM-C can reasonably reproduce not only the spatial distribution of the climatology of sea level pressure (SLP) in winter, but also the AIS and its decadal variation. The period 496&ndash;535 of the integration by this model was divided into two sub-periods: 496&ndash;515 (P1) and 516&ndash;535 (P2) to further investigate the decadal weakening of the AIS. It was shown that this decadal variation of the AIS is mainly due to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), from its positive phase to its negative phase. This transition of the PDO causes the sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern (northern) Pacific to cool (warm), resulting in the decadal weakening of mid-latitude westerlies over the north Pacific and north Atlantic. This may be responsible for the weakening of the inverse relation between the Aleutian Low (AL) and the Icelandic Low (IL).</span><br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <span style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;">Cite this paper:</span><br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <span style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;">DONG Xiao, SU Tong-Hua, WANG Jun, LIN Ren-Ping, 2014: Decadal Variation of the Aleutian Low-Icelandic Low Seesaw Simulated by a Climate System Model (CAS-ESM-C) . Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 7(2), 110-114, doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.13.0061.</span><br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <span style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;">URL:</span><br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <span style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;">http://159.226.119.58/aosl/EN/10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.13.0061 OR http://159.226.119.58/aosl/EN/Y2014/V7/I2/110</span>

27) Dong Chen,Huijun Wang, Jiping Liu,Guoping Li, 2014: Why the spring North Pacific Oscillation is a predictor of typhoon activity over the Western North Pacific. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Published online, . 摘要


28) Ma Jiehua, Wang Huijun, Zhang Ying,, 2014: Will typhoon over the western North Pacific be more frequent in the blue Arctic conditions?. Science China: Earth Sciences, 57(7), 1494-1500. 摘要


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