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1) Chen, H. P., H. J. Wang, J. Q. Sun, Y. Y. Xu, and Z. C. Yin, 2019: Anthropogenic fine particulate matter pollution will be exacerbated in eastern China due to 21st century GHG warming. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 19, 233-243. 摘要 PDF

China has experienced a substantial increase in severe haze events over the past several decades, which is primarily attributed to the increased pollutant emissions caused by its rapid economic development. The climate changes observed under the warming scenarios, especially those induced by increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs), are also conducive to the increase in air pollution. However, how the air pollution changes in response to the GHG warming has not been thoroughly elucidated to date. We investigate this change using the century-long large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1) with the fixed anthropogenic emissions at the year 2005. Our results show that although the aerosol emission is assumed to be a constant throughout the experiment, anthropogenic air<br /> pollution presents positive responses to the GHG-induced warming. The anthropogenic PM2:5 concentration is estimated to increase averaged over eastern China at the end of this century, but varying from regions, with an increase over<br /> northwestern part of eastern China and a decrease over southeastern part. Similar changes can be observed for the light air pollution days. However, the severe air pollution days are reported to increase across eastern China at the end of this<br /> century, particularly around the Jing&ndash;Jin&ndash;Ji region. Further research indicates that the increased stagnation days and the decreased light precipitation days are the possible causes of the increase in PM2:5 concentration, as well as the anthropogenic<br /> air pollution days. Estimation shows that the effect of climate change induced by the GHG warming can account for 11 %&ndash;28% of the changes in anthropogenic air pollution days over eastern China. Therefore, in the future, more stringent regulations on regional air pollution emissions are needed to balance the effect from climate change.

2) Shuangshuang HE, Jun WANG, Huijun WANG, 2019: Projection of Landslides in China during the 21st Century under the RCP8.5 Scenario. J. Meteor. Res., 33(1), 138-148. 摘要

3) 马洁华,孙建奇,汪君,等, 2019: 2018年夏季我国极端降水及滑坡泥石流灾害预测. 大气科学学报, 42(1), 93-99. 摘要

Ma JH,Sun  JQ,Wang  J,et aI.,2019. ReaI-time prediction  for 2018 JJA extreme precipitation  and  IandsIides [ J] . Trans. Atmos. Sci. ,42(1): 93-99. doi:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20181214001. (in  Chinese) .

4) 何爽爽,汪君,王会军, 2019: 滑坡泥石流大尺度统计预报模型的实时检验. 大气科学学报, 42(1), 78-92. 摘要

He SS, Wang J, Wang HJ, 2019: Real-time warning test of landslide and debris flow with a statistical model in large scale. [J] Trans. Atmos. Sci. 42(1):78-92. doi:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20181008002. (in Chinses).

5) kk, 2019: ceshi. , , . 摘要 PDF



1) Li H. X., H. P. Chen, H. J. Wang, and E. T. Yu, 2018: Future precipitation changes over China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming targets by using CORDEX regional climate models. Science of The Total Environment, 640-641, 543-554. 摘要 PDF

This study aims to characterize future changes in precipitation extremes over China based on regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-East Asia project. The results of five RCMs involved in CORDEX-East Asia project that driven by HadGEM2-AO are compared with the simulation of CMA-RegCM driven by BCC-CSM1.1. Eleven precipitation extreme indices that developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices are employed to evaluate precipitation extreme changes over China. Generally, RCMs can reproduce their spatiotemporal characteristics over China in comparison with observations. For future climate projections, RCMs indicate that both the occurrence and intensity of precipitation extremes in most regions of China will increase when the global temperature increases by 1.5/2.0 &deg;C. The yearly maximum five-day precipitation (RX5D) averaged over China is reported to increase by 4.4% via the CMA-RegCM under the 1.5 &deg;C warming in comparison with the baseline period (1986&ndash;2005); however, a relatively large increase of 11.1% is reported by the multi-model ensemble median (MME) when using the other five models. Furthermore, the reoccurring risks of precipitation extremes over most regions of China will further increase due to the additional 0.5 &deg;C warming. For example, RX5D will further increase by approximately 8.9% over NWC, 3.8% over NC, 2.3% over SC, and approximately 1.0% over China. Extremes, such as the historical 20-year return period event of yearly maximum one-day precipitation (RX1D) and RX5D, will become more frequent, with occurrences happening once every 8.8 years (RX1D) and 11.5 years (RX5D) under the 1.5 &deg;C warming target, and there will be two fewer years due to the additional 0.5 &deg;C warming. In addition, the intensity of these events will increase by approximately 9.2% (8.5%) under the 1.5 &deg;C warming target and 12.6% (11.0%) under the 2.0 &deg;C warming target for RX1D (RX5D).

2) Entao Yu, Ran Zhang, Dabang Jiang, Gilles Ramstein, Zhongshi Zhang, Jianqi Sun, 2018: High-resolution simulation of Asian monsoon response to regional uplift of the Tibetan Plateau with regional climate model nested with global climate model. Global and Planetary Change, 169, 34-47. 摘要 PDF

3) Zhang, R., D. Jiang, G. Ramstein, Z. Zhang, P. C. Lippert, and E. Yu, 2018: Changes in Tibetan Plateau latitude as an important factor for understanding East Asian climate since the Eocene: A modeling study. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 484, 295-308. 摘要 PDF

4) Wang Tao, Miao Jiapeng, 2018: Twentieth-century Pacific Decadal Oscillation simulated by CMIP5 coupled models. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 11(1), 94-101. 摘要 PDF

5) Wang Tao, Miao Jiapeng, Sun Jianqi, Fu Yuanhai, 2018: Intensified East Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation mode shift under the 1.5 °C global warming target. Advances in Climate Change Research, 9(2), 102-111. 摘要 PDF

6) 何爽爽,汪君,王会军, 2018: 基于卫星降水和WRF预报降水的“6.18”门头沟泥石流事件的回报检验研究. 大气科学, 42(3), 590-606. 摘要

<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;">何爽爽,汪君,王会军.2018.基于卫星降水和WRF预报降水的&ldquo;6.18&rdquo;门头沟泥石流事件的回报检验研究[J].大气科学,42(3):590-606,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1804.18148.</span><br /> <br /> <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;">&nbsp;</span><span id="Abstract" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: &quot;PingFang SC&quot;;">2017年6月18日北京门头沟地区突发泥石流,造成6人伤亡。短时强降水是这起事件的主要诱发因素,但常规气象观测并没有很好地观测到此次降水过程,可见降水数据的准确性对于滑坡泥石流的实时预警及预报至关重要。近年来,卫星遥感估算降水发展迅速,WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)模式关于降水的预报技巧也逐渐提高。本文以自动站降水资料为参考,首先利用定性方法和泰勒图、TS(Threat Score)评分等定量的方法比较了CMORPH(CPC MORPHing technique)、GPM(Global Precipitation Measurement)和PERSIANN-CCS(Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System)三种卫星降水资料以及不同起报时间的WRF预报降水对此次降水过程的表现能力,然后利用降水数据驱动滑坡泥石流统计预报模型,对此次事件进行了回报,分析不同降水数据在模型中的实际应用效果,最终为滑坡泥石流实时预警和预报系统的构建提供参考。结果表明,三种卫星降水资料基本上能反映出此次降水过程东北&mdash;西南向的带状空间分布形态,其中,CMORPH与自动站资料的空间相关性最好,命中率也最高,但对降水量有一定的高估,GPM对平均降水量的时间变化有较好的反映,体现了卫星降水在观测较少地区的良好利用价值,PERSIANN-CCS的表现则相对差些。WRF模式能预报出此次降水的带状空间分布特征,但降水中心的位置与实际有所偏差;此外,预报的最大降水量的峰值出现时间比实际上晚。由于此次降水的强局地性,只有空间分辨率均匀且质量相对较好的CMORPH卫星降水驱动模型可以回报出此次事件,而自动站点资料由于空间分布不均,则没有回报出此次事件,这表明了卫星降水在滑坡泥石流实时预警系统的构建中具有一定的优势。WRF模式降水驱动模型可以提前做出预警,虽然预报的事件发生时间与实际相比偏晚3~5 h,但WRF可以较好地预报72 h内的降水,因而可以延长灾害的可预见期。WRF模式预报降水的时间和空间精度都需要进一步提高,但是仍具有很好的参考意义。</span>

7) Hua Wei, Lin Zouxin, Guo Donglin, Fan Guangzhou, Zhang Yongli, Yang Kaiqin, Hu Qin, Zhu Lihua, 2018: Simulated long-term vegetation–climate feedbacks in the Tibetan Plateau. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, , https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-018-0056-5. 摘要

8) Tao Wang, Dong Guo, Yongqi Gao, Huijun Wang, Fei Zheng, Yali Zhu, Jiapeng Miao, Yongyun Hu, 2018: Modulation of ENSO evolution by strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Climate Dynamics, 51(7-8), 2433–2453. 摘要

9) ZHU Ya-Li, WANG Hui-Jun, WANG Tao & GUO Dong, 2018: Extreme spring cold spells in North China during 1961–2014 and the evolving processes. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 11(5), 432-437. 摘要

10) Miao, J., Wang, T., Wang, H., Zhu, Y., & Sun, J., 2018: Interdecadal Weakening of the East Asian Winter Monsoon in the mid-1980s: The Roles of External Forcings. Journal of Climate, 31(21), 8985-9000. 摘要

11) Liu, Y., H. P. Chen*, H. J. Wang, and Y. B. Qiu, 2018: The Impact of the NAO on the Delayed Break-Up Date of Lake Ice over the Southern Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Climate, 31, 9073-9086. 摘要 PDF

The changing characteristics of lake ice phenology over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) are investigated using historical satellite retrieved datasets during 2002&ndash;15 in this study. The results indicate that the freezing process mainly starts in December, and the ice melting process generally occurs in April for most lakes. However, the changes in lake ice phenology have varied depending on the location in recent years, with delayed break-up dates and prolonged ice durations in the southern TP, but no consistent changes have occurred in the lakes in the northern TP. Further analysis presents a close connection between the variation in the lake ice break-up date/ice duration over the southern TP and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The positive NAO<br /> generally excites an anomalous wave activity that propagates southward from the North Atlantic to North Africa and, in turn, strengthens the African&ndash;Asian jet stream at its entrance. Because of the blocking effect of the TP, the enhanced westerly jet can be divided into two branches and the south branch flow can deepen the India&ndash;Myanmar trough, which further strengthens the anomalous cyclonic circulation and water vapor transport. Therefore, the increased water vapor transport from the northern Indian Ocean to the southern region of the TP can increase the snowfall over this region. The increased snow cover over the lake acts as an insulating layer and lowers the lake surface temperature in the following spring by means of snow&ndash;ice<br /> feedback activity, resulting in a delayed ice break-up date and the increased ice duration of the lakes over the southern TP in recent years.

12) 孙建奇,马洁华,陈活泼,汪君,于恩涛,田宝强, 2018: 降尺度方法在东亚气候预测中的应用. 大气科学, 42, 806-822. 摘要


13) Guo Donglin, Li Duo, Hua Wei, 2018: Quantifying air temperature evolution in the permafrost region from 1901 to 2014. International Journal of Climatology, 38, 66–76. 摘要 PDF

14) Guo Donglin, Sun Jianqi, Yu Entao, 2018: Evaluation of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating temperature and precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 11, 219–227. 摘要 PDF

15) Guo Donglin, Wang Aihui, Li Duo, Hua Wei, 2018: Simulation of changes in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle using CLM4.5 with four atmospheric forcing datasets. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123, 2509–2523. 摘要 PDF

16) 孙建奇,马洁华,陈活泼,汪君,于恩涛,田宝强., 2018: 降尺度方法在东亚气候预测中的应用. 大气科学, 42, doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1801.17266. 摘要

17) Chen, H. P., and J. Q. Sun, 2018: Projected changes in climate extremes in China in a 1.5oC warmer world. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.5521, . 摘要 PDF

In December 2015, the Paris Agreement was reached in an effort to limit global warming to below 1.5<sup>o</sup>C. However, there is few scientific literature assessing changes in the climate with 1.5<sup>o</sup>C of warming over China. We investigated changes in climate extremes in China that generally present high impacts on society. The results indicated that an additional warming of 0.5<sup>o</sup>C would lead to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes across China. Both the temperatures on the hottest days and the frequencies of heat events across China are estimated to be lower when limiting warming to 1.5<sup>o</sup>C compared to 2.0<sup>o</sup>C. Events such as the record heat case in the summer of 2013 over eastern China would be approximately 28% less likely to occur if warming was limited to below 1.5<sup>o</sup>C. Moreover, China would experience reduced precipitation extremes, although this projection is accompanied by a relatively lower confidence level than for changes in temperature extremes. High-impact heavy rain events similar to that in the summer of 2012 over northern China (Beijing) that led to severe urban waterlogging and loss of life would be less likely if there is no more than 0.5<sup>o</sup>C of warming. Similarly, the odds of wide-ranging severe droughts, as witnessed in the summer of 2014 over north China, are projected to decrease clearly. The positive effects of limiting warming on changes in climate extremes are thus clear, and limiting warming should be encouraged regardless of the political and socio-economic goals of a country.

18) Miao Jiapeng, Wang Tao, Wang Huijun, Sun Jianqi, 2018: InterannualWeakening of the Tropical PacificWalker Circulation Due to Strong Tropical Volcanism. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35(6), 645–658. 摘要 PDF

19) Miao Jiapeng, Wang Tao, Wang Huijun, Gao Yongqi, 2018: Influence of Low-frequency Solar Forcing on the East Asian Winter Monsoon Based on HadCM3 and Observations. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35(9), 1205–1215. 摘要 PDF

20) Han, T. T., H. P. Chen, X. Hao, and H. J. Wang, 2018: Projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Silk Road Economic Belt regions by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 multi-model ensembles. International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.5553, . 摘要 PDF

The Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-century Maritime Silk Road is a development<br /> initiative proposed by the Chinese government. However, the Belt and Road regions &nbsp; involve a large population, and regional economic development is sensitive to climate change, particularly climate extreme events. Hence, it is of vital relevanceto pay more attention to the climate extreme change over this region. In thisstudy, changes in the temperature- and precipitation-related extremes over the Beltand Road regions are evaluated during the middle and the end of this century usingCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. Results present obvious changes in extreme temperature and precipitation indices under both RCP4.5 (representative concentration pathways) and RCP8.5 scenarios against the current climate state (1986&ndash;2005). Changes generally present relatively larger magnitudes<br /> under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Projected multi-model ensemble results showa significant increase in warm events over Moscow and Nairobi. Additionally, cold<br /> events will decrease over central Europe, Moscow and central Asia, along with longer<br /> growing season length over these regions. The annual mean precipitation is<br /> reported to significantly increase over the region of Nairobi and the flooding events<br /> will be exacerbated across the Belt regions under a future warmer world, particularly<br /> over Moscow, Southeast Asia and Nairobi. Meanwhile, the region of West<br /> Asia will be likely to experience more drought and flooding events with the warming.<br /> However, we should also note that the inter-model uncertainty of these results<br /> is reported to increase with time and a relatively large model spread can be seen in<br /> precipitation-related indices when comparing with the temperature.

21) Li H. X., H. P. Chen, H. J. Wang, J. Q. Sun, and J. H. Ma, 2018: Can Barents Sea ice decline in spring enhance summer hot drought events over northeastern China?. Journal of Climate, 31, 4705-4725. 摘要 PDF

In July&ndash;August (JA) of 2016, northeastern China (NEC) suffered from the most severe hot drought event of the past 50 years, leading to profound impacts on agriculture, the ecosystem, and society. Results indicate that the loss of sea ice over the Barents Sea (SICBS) in March might have influenced the hot drought events over NEC in JA for the period of 1997&ndash;2016. Further analyses reveal that lower SICBS is closely related to thinner snow depth over western Eurasia (SDWEA) in April. The decline of SDWEA leads to drier soil from the Yangtze River valley to northern China during May&ndash;June, which is favorable for precipitation deficiency over NEC in JA. Besides, the loss of SICBS in March and decline of SDWEA in April are closely related to the polar&ndash;Eurasia teleconnection pattern and dry soil over NEC in JA, which provides favorable atmospheric circulation patterns for occurrences of hot droughts. The large ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model and the numerical experiments based on version 4 of the Community Atmosphere Model further confirmed their connections and the associated possible physical processes. Therefore, snow depth and soil moisture might serve as linkages between Barents Sea ice in March and hot droughts over NEC during JA, and the Barents Sea ice in March might be an important potential predictor for the summer hot droughts over NEC.


1) Wang Tao, Guo Dong, Gao Yongqi, Wang Huijun, Zheng Fei, Zhu Yali, Miao Jiapeng, Hu Yongyun, 2017: Modulation of ENSO evolution by strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Climate Dynamics, , . 摘要 PDF

2) Gao Ya, Wang Huijun, Chen Dong, 2017: Interdecadal variations of the South Asian summer monsoon circulation variability and the associated sea surface temperatures on interannual scales. 34, 7, 816-832. 摘要

We investigated the interannual variability of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) circulation, which has experienced a significant interdecadal change since 2000. This change is primarily influenced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. During the pre-2000 period examined in this study (1979‒1999), the SASM is negatively correlated with eastern Pacific SSTs (the canonical El Ni&ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode) and positively correlated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic SST tripole (NAT). During the post-2000 period (2000‒2014), the SASM is negatively correlated with central Pacific SSTs and positively correlated with the positive phase of the NAT pattern. The associated Pacific SSTs change from eastern to central region, leading to the rising (subsiding) branch of the Walker circulation moving westward to the Maritime Continent in the latter period, which can impact the interannual variability of the SASM through modulating the wind field in the troposphere. In addition to Pacific SSTs, the NAT SSTs can propagate energy from North Atlantic to South Asian High (SAH) region through the wave activity flux, then further impact the SASM via SAH.<br /> Because the SASM is intimately related with precipitation over the Asian region, we briefly discuss the features of the precipitation patterns associated with the SASM during the two periods. The westward shifting Walker circulation leads to the shrinking and weakened anomalous westerlies of SASM in the lower level, inducing the Maritime Continent rainfall location moving westward and more moisture from Pacific Ocean can arrive at the Southern China in the latter period.

3) Gao Ya, 2017: Shift of the principal mode of Pan-Asian monsoon summer precipitation in terms of spatial pattern. 10, 3, 221-227. 摘要

In paper, it is documented that the principal mode of the Pan-Asian monsoon summer precipitation has experienced a prominent interdecadal shift around 1992/1993 in terms of spatial pattern and major driving factors. During 1979‒1992 (Period 1‒P1), Pan-Asian monsoon summer precipitation anomalies mainly display a meridional dipole pattern from north to south, whereas in the period 1993‒2016 (Period 2‒P2), it shows a meridional tripole pattern instead. The summer precipitation in P1 is primarily associated with a combination of the developing phase (central-eastern Pacific type) and decaying phase (eastern Pacific type) of El Ni&ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode; while in P2, it is mainly associated with the eastern Pacific type of ENSO decaying phase.<br />

4) Chen, H. P., and J. Q. Sun, 2017: Anthropogenic warming has caused hot droughts more frequently in China. Journal of Hydrology, 544, 306-318. 摘要 PDF

Historical records have indicated an increase in high-impact drought occurrences across China during recent decades, but whether this increase is due to natural variability or anthropogenic change remains unclear. Thus, the shift toward dry conditions and their associated attributions across China are discussed<br /> in this study, primarily regarding the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results show that drought occurrences across China increased consistently during 1951&ndash;2014, especially during the recent twenty years. Most of the increased drought events happened under warm-dry conditions that coincided with relatively high temperature anomalies but without large anomalies in annual<br /> precipitation, implying an increase in hot drought events across China. Further analysis revealed that the change in drought occurrences were mainly due to the combined activity of external natural forcings and anthropogenic changes across China. However, external natural forcings were mainly responsible for the variability of droughts and anthropogenic influences for their increasing trends, suggesting that<br /> anthropogenic warming has increased hot drought occurrences, associated risks and impacts across China. With continued warming in the future, the impact of anthropogenic warming on the increased hot drought events will be further amplified. The probability of warm years is projected to significantly increase, and the occurrence probability of hot drought events (SPEI &lt; 1.0) will increase to nearly 100% <a href="http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907102013186.pdf">http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907102013186.pdf</a><br /> by the year 2050, even though the annual precipitation is projected to increase across China in the future.

5) Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, 2017: Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 °C global warming. Climate Dynamics, 49, 2569–2583. 摘要 PDF

6) 郭东林, 李多, 刘广岳, 2017: 1901~2010年青藏高原土壤温度变化的模拟研究. 第四纪研究, 37, 1101–1109. 摘要 PDF

7) Yin, Z. C., H. J. Wang, and H. P. Chen, 2017: Understanding severe winter haze events in the North China Plain in 2014: roles of climate anomalies. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1641-1651. 摘要 PDF

Atmospheric pollution has become a serious environmental and social problem in China. Over the past 30 years, the number of winter (December&ndash;February) haze days<br /> over the North China Plain (WHDNCP/ was greatest in 2014. In addition to anthropogenic influence, climate anomalies also played a role. Thus, it is necessary to analyze the anomalous atmosphere circulations associated with haze pollution of this year in detail. Near the surface, the weaker East Asian winter monsoon pattern, causing southerly winds over the North China Plain, could aggravate the situation of haze. In the lower and middle troposphere, taking the anticyclone circulation over North China as an intermediate system, the positive phases of the eastern Atlantic/western Russia (EA/WR), the western Pacific (WP), and the Eurasia (EU) patterns led to a worse air pollution dispersion condition that contributed to a larger number of WHDNCP. In 2014, these three patterns could be recognized from the wind anomalies in the lower troposphere. The preceding autumn (September&ndash;November)<br /> Arctic sea ice (ASI) anomalies over the eastern Hemisphere and the warmer winter surface over Eurasia might have induced or intensified the positive EA/WR pattern in 2014. These two external forcings, together with the pre-autumn sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific, might have also stimulated or enhanced the positive EU-like patterns. The anomalous surface temperature in autumn 2014 was efficient in intensifying anomalous circulations such as the positive phase of the WP pattern. The opposite case of minimum WHDNCP in 2010 further supports the mechanism of how <a href=" since 1999 */white-space: -pre-wrap; /* Opera 4-6 */white-space: -o-pre-wrap; /* Opera 7 */ word-wrap: break-word; /* Internet Explorer 5.5+ */} a:link">since 1999 */white-space: -pre-wrap; /* Opera 4-6 */white-space: -o-pre-wrap; /* Opera 7 */ word-wrap: break-word; /* Internet Explorer 5.5+ */} a:link</a><br /> <a href=" since 1999 */white-space: -pre-wrap; /* Opera 4-6 */white-space: -o-pre-wrap; /* Opera 7 */ word-wrap: break-word; /* Internet Explorer 5.5+ */} a:link">since 1999 */white-space: -pre-wrap; /* Opera 4-6 */white-space: -o-pre-wrap; /* Opera 7 */ word-wrap: break-word; /* Internet Explorer 5.5+ */} a:link</a><br /> EA/WR and WP patterns and associated external factors altered<br /> the local climate conditions to impact the WHDNCP.

8) Chen, H. P., and J. Q. Sun, 2017: Contribution of human influence to increased daily precipitation extremes over China. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 2436-2444. 摘要 PDF

This study provides an estimate of the human influence on increases in daily precipitation extremes over China using data sets from multiple coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The effects of human forcings can be detected in the observed changes of daily precipitation extremes, but the effects of external natural forcings as well as the aerosols are not detected using the optimal fingerprint methods. Estimation showed that human influence has increased daily precipitation extremes by approximately 13% (1% to 25% for 90% confidence interval) on average over China in recent decades. With further warming, human influences on precipitation extremes would be<br /> amplified. For a temperature increase of 1.5&deg;C with respect to the preindustrial time, the occurrence probability of severe extremes is doubled, and approximately 51% of these events occurring over China are attributable to human influences. This fraction increases with temperature. Furthermore, the contributions of human influences are much stronger for the high-percentile extremes, and the highest sensitivity of the<br /> changes in daily precipitation extremes due to human influences is observed in the region of the Tibetan <a href="http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907103804259.pdf">http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907103804259.pdf</a><br /> Plateau in the southwest of China.

9) Chen, H. P., and J. Q. Sun, 2017: Characterizing present and future drought changes over eastern China. Int. J. Climatol., , doi:10.1002/joc.4987. 摘要 PDF

This study aimed to characterize present and future drought changes over eastern China using observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. We used the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration<br /> index (SPEI) to characterize droughts at the timescales of 3- and 12-month. We distinguished the spatial patterns of drought regimes (DRs) using the rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) on the SPEI. Our results identified three DRs centered in northern China (DR1), northeastern China (DR2), and southern China (DR3). Droughts in these regimes have increased in recent decades. Most CMIP5 models reproduce at least two of the DRs. The rotated EOF results indicate that the three DRs can jointly explain 46&ndash;68% of the SPEI variance (compared with approximately 60% in the observations). Among the 33 CMIP5 models analysed in this study, 13 simulated all three DRs well and showed a strong correlation pattern (&gt;0.5). Further analysis indicated that both the external natural and greenhouse gas forcing experiments in CMIP5 reproduced the DRs, implying that natural variability and anthropogenic activity play important roles in the formation of these DRs. With continued climate warming, the three DRs over eastern China will persist. Despite the uncertainties in drought changes that mainly depend on the potential evapotranspiration methods, climate model results suggest that droughts would be aggravated under warming scenarios. The probability of severe droughts increase by the end of the century: 33% in DR1, 25% in DR2, 34% in DR3 in RCP4.5 and almost double in RCP8.5 scenario in <a href=" since 1999 */white-space: -pre-wrap; /* Opera 4-6 */white-space: -o-pre-wrap; /* Opera 7 */ word-wrap: break-word; /* Internet Explorer 5.5+ */} a:link">since 1999 */white-space: -pre-wrap; /* Opera 4-6 */white-space: -o-pre-wrap; /* Opera 7 */ word-wrap: break-word; /* Internet Explorer 5.5+ */} a:link</a><br /> Thornthwaite method based SPEI estimates.

10) Li, H. X., H. P. Chen, and H. J. Wang, 2017: Effects of anthropogenic activity emerging as intensified extreme precipitation over China. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, doi:10.1002/2016JD026251. 摘要 PDF

This study aims to provide an assessment of the effects of anthropogenic (ANT) forcings and other external factors on observed increases in extreme precipitation over China from 1961 to 2005. Extreme precipitation is represented by the annual maximum 1 day precipitation (RX1D) and the annual maximum 5 day consecutive precipitation (RX5D), and these variables are investigated using observations and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The analyses mainly focus on the probability-based index (PI), which is derived from RX1D and RX5D by fitting generalized extreme value distributions. The results indicate that the simulations that include the ANT forcings provide the best representation of the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation over China. We use the optimal fingerprint method to obtain the univariate and multivariate fingerprints of the responses to external forcings. The results show that only the ANT forcings are detectable at a 90% confidence level, both individually and when natural forcings are considered simultaneously. The impact of the forcing associated with greenhouse gases (GHGs) is also detectable in RX1D, but its effects cannot be separated from those of combinations of forcings that exclude the GHG forcings in the two-signal analyses. Besides, the estimated changes of PI, extreme precipitation, and events with a 20 year return period under nonstationary climate states are potentially attributable to ANT or GHG forcings, and the relationships between extreme <a href="http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907104437567.pdf">http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907104437567.pdf</a><br /> precipitation and temperature from ANT forcings show agreement with observations.

11) Chen, H. P., J. Q. Sun, and H. X. Li, 2017: Future changes in precipitation extremes over China using the NEX-GDDP high-resolution daily downscaled data-set. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., , doi:10.1080/16742834.2017.1367625. 摘要 PDF

Recently, a new high-resolution daily downscaled data-set derived from 21 CMIP5 model simulations has been released by NASA, called &lsquo;NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP). In this study, the performance of this data-set in simulating precipitation extremes and long-term climate changes across China are evaluated and compared with CMIP5 GCMs. The results indicate that NEX-GDDP can successfully reproduce the spatial patterns of precipitation extremes over China, showing results that are much closer to observations than the GCMs, with<br /> increased Pearson correlation coefficients and decreased model relative error for most models. Furthermore, NEX-GDDP shows that precipitation extremes are projected to occur more frequently, with increased intensity, across China in the future. Especially at regional to local scales, more information for the projection of future changes in precipitation extremes can be obtained from this high-resolution data-set. Most importantly, the uncertainties of these projections at the regional scale present significant decreases compared with the GCMs, making the projections by NEX-GDDP much more reliable. Therefore, the authors believe that this high-resolution data-set will be popular and widely used in the future, particularly for climate change impact studies in areas where a finer <a href="http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907104822491.pdf">http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2017/0907/20170907104822491.pdf</a><br /> scale is required.

12) Li, S. L., Z. Han, and H. P. Chen, 2017: A Comparison of the Effects of Interannual Arctic Sea Ice Loss and ENSO on Winter Haze Days: Observational Analyses and AGCM Simulations. J. Meteor. Res., 31(5), doi:10.1007/s13351-017-7017-2. 摘要

This study compares the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss and ENSO [El Ni&ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation] events on winter haze days in mainland China through observational analyses and AGCM sensitive experiments. The results suggest that (1) Arctic sea ice loss favors an increase in haze days in central-eastern China, (2) the impact of ENSO is overall contained within southern China, with increased (reduced) haze days during La Ni&ntilde;a (El Ni&ntilde;o) winters, and (3) the impacts from sea ice loss and ENSO generally add linearly. Mechanistically, Arctic sea ice loss causes quasi-barotropic positive height anomalies over the region from northern Europe to the Ural Mountains (Urals in brief) and weak and negative height anomalies over the region from central Asia to northeastern Asia. The former favors intensified frequency of the blocking over from northern Europe to the Urals, whereas the latter favors an even air pressure distribution over Siberia, Mongolia and East Asia. This large-scale circulation pattern favors a more-frequent occurrence of calm and steady weather in northern China and, as a consequence, increased occurrence of haze days. In comparison, La Ni&ntilde;a (El Ni&ntilde;o) exerts its influence along a tropical pathway by inducing a cyclonic (anticyclonic) lower-tropospheric atmospheric circulation response over the subtropical northwestern Pacific. The northeasterly (southwesterly) anomaly at the northwestern rear of the cyclone (anticyclone) causes reduced (intensified) rainfall over southeastern China, which favors increased (reduced) occurrence of haze days through the rain-washing effect.

13) Yang Liu, Shengping He, Fei Li, Huijun Wang, and Yali Zhu, 2017: Interdecadal change between the Arctic Oscillation and East Asian climate during 1900-2015 winters. Int. J. Climatol., , . 摘要

14) Hao Xin, Shengping He, 2017: Combined Effect of ENSO-Like and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation SSTAs on the Interannual Variability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon. Journal of Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0118.1, . 摘要

15) He Shengping, Yongqi Gao, Fei Li, Huijun Wang, Yanchun He, 2017: Impact of Arctic Oscillation on the East Asian climate: A review. Earth Science Review, 164, 48-62. 摘要

16) Liu Yang, Shengping He, Fei Li, Huijun Wang, Yali Zhu, 2017: Interdecadal change between the Arctic Oscillation and East Asian climate during 1900–2015 winters. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.5123, . 摘要

17) Han Tingting, Shengping He, Huijun Wang, Xin Hao, 2017: Enhanced influence of early-spring tropical Indian Ocean SST on the following early-summer precipitation over Northeast China. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3669-y, . 摘要

18) Xu Xinping, Shengping He, Fei Li, Huijun Wang, 2017: Impact of northern Eurasian snow cover in autumn on the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern during the following January and its linkage to stationary planetary waves. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3732-8, . 摘要

19) Li, F., Y. J. Orsolini, H. J. Wang, Y. Q. Gao, and S. P. He, 2017: Modulation of the Aleutian–Icelandic low seesaw and its surface impacts by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Adv. Atmos. Sci., doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-7028-z, . 摘要

20) He Shengping, Yongqi Gao, Tore Furevik, Huijun Wang, and F. Li, 2017: Teleconnection between sea ice in the Barents Sea in June and the Silk Road, Pacific–Japan and East Asian rainfall patterns in August. Adv. Atmos. Sci., doi: 10.1007/s00376-017-7029-y. 23, . 摘要

21) He Shengping, Yang Liu, Huijun Wang, 2017: Connection between the Silk Road Pattern in July and the following January temperature over East Asia. Journal of Meteorological Research, 31(2), 378-388. 摘要

22) Yang Ruowen, Jian Wang, Tianyu Zhang, Shengping He, 2017: Change in the relationship between the Australian summer monsoon circulation and boreal summer precipitation over Central China in the late 1990s. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0556-3, . 摘要

23) Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, 2017: Simulated historical (1901-2010) changes in the permafrost extent and active layer thickness in the Northern Hemisphere. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122, 12285–12295. 摘要 PDF

24) Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, Wang Aihui, 2017: Sensitivity of historical simulation of the permafrost to different atmospheric forcing datasets from 1979 to 2009. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 122, 12269–12284. 摘要 PDF


1) Jiang, D., Z. Tian, and X. Lang, 2016: Reliability of climate models for China through the IPCC Third to Fifth Assessment Reports. International Journal of Climatology, 36(3), 1114–1133, doi:10.1002/joc.4406. 摘要 PDF

Based on observation and reanalysis data, 77 coupled global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third (TAR), Fourth (AR4), and Fifth (AR5) Assessment Reports are evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of surface air temperature at 2 m and precipitation over China and the climatological East Asian monsoon for the late decades of the 20th century. Results show that GCMs reliably reproduce the geographical distribution of the variables considered. Compared with observations, however, most GCMs have topography-related cold biases (although these are smaller than those found in previous studies), excessive precipitation, an underestimated southeast-northwest precipitation gradient, an overestimated magnitude and spatial variability of the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation, and an inadequate strength of the East Asian monsoon circulation. Pairwise comparison reveals that GCMs continue to improve from the TAR via the AR4 to the AR5 for temperature, but have little change for precipitation and the East Asian monsoon. The ability of GCMs varies with season and is affected to certain degree by their horizontal resolutions. Both the arithmetic mean and the median of multiple GCMs are little affected by filtering GCMs in terms of their ability, and the multi-model mean outperforms most of individual GCMs in every respect.

2) 汪君, 王会军, HONG Yang, 2016: 一个新的高分辨率洪涝动力数值监测预报系统. 科学通报, 61(4-5), 518-528. 摘要

3) Jun Wang, Huijun Wang, Yang Hong, 2016: Comparison of satellite-estimated and model-forecasted rainfall data during a deadly debris-flow event in Zhouqu, Northwest China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 9(2), 139-145. 摘要

<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">The data of several rainfall products, including those estimated from satellite measurements and those forecasted via numerical weather modeling, for a severe debris-flow event in Zhouqu, Northwest China, are compared and analyzed in this paper. The satellite products, including CPC MORPHing technique (CMORPH), TMPA-RT, and PERSIANN are all near-real-time retrieved with high temporal and spatial resolutions. The numerical weather model used in this paper for precipitation forecasting is WRF. The results show that all three satellite products can basically reproduce the rainfall pattern, distribution, timing, scale, and extreme values of the event, compared with gauge data. Their temporal and spatial correlation coefficients with gauge data are as high as about 0.6, which is statistically significant at 0.01 level. The performance of the forecasted results modeled with different spatial resolutions are not as good as the satellite-estimated results, although their correlation coefficients are still statistically significant at 0.05 level. From the total rainfall and extreme value time series for the domain, it is clear that, from the grid-to-grid perspective, the passive microwave-based CMORPH and TRMM products are more accurate than the infrared-based PERSIANN, while PERSIANN performs very well from the general point of view, especially when considering the whole domain or the whole convective precipitation system. The forecasted data &mdash; especially the highest resolution model domain data &mdash; are able to represent the total or mean precipitation very well in the research domain, while for extreme values the errors are large. This study suggests that satellite-retrieved and model-forecasted rainfall data are a useful complement to gauge data, especially for areas without gauge stations and areas not covered by weather radars.</span>

4) Liu, Y., and D. Jiang, 2016: Mid-Holocene permafrost: Results from CMIP5 simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(1), 221–240. 摘要

5) Liu, Y., and D. Jiang, 2016: Last glacial maximum permafrost in China from CMIP5 simulations. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 447, 12–21. 摘要

6) 姜大膀, 刘叶一, 2016: 温室效应会使地球温度上升多高? ——关于平衡气候敏感度. 科学通报, 61, 691–694. 摘要

7) Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, 2016: CMIP5 permafrost degradation projection: a comparison among different regions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 4499–4517. 摘要 PDF

8) Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, 2016: Comparison of a very-fine-resolution GCM and RCM dynamical downscaling in simulating climate in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 559–570. 摘要 PDF

9) Guo Donglin, Yu Entao, Wang Huijun, 2016: Will the Tibetan Plateau warming depend on elevation in the future?. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 3969–3978. 摘要 PDF

10) Wang, H. J., and H. P. Chen, 2016: Understanding the recent trend of haze pollution in eastern China: roles of climate change. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 4205-4211. 摘要 PDF

In this paper, the variation and trend of haze pollution<br /> in eastern China for winter of 1960&ndash;2012 were analyzed.<br /> With the overall increasing number of winter haze days in<br /> this period, the 5 decades were divided into three sub-periods<br /> based on the changes of winter haze days (WHD) in central<br /> North China (30&ndash;40 N) and eastern South China (south<br /> of 30 N) for east of 109 E mainland China. Results show<br /> that WHD kept gradually increasing during 1960&ndash;1979, remained<br /> stable overall during 1980&ndash;1999, and increased fast<br /> during 2000&ndash;2012. The author identified the major climate<br /> forcing factors besides total energy consumption. Among all<br /> the possible climate factors, variability of the autumn Arctic<br /> sea ice extent, local precipitation and surface wind during<br /> winter is most influential to the haze pollution change. The<br /> joint effect of fast increase of total energy consumption, rapid<br /> decline of Arctic sea ice extent and reduced precipitation and<br /> surface winds intensified the haze pollution in central North<br /> China after 2000. There is a similar conclusion for haze pollution<br /> in eastern South China after 2000, with the precipitation<br /> effect being smaller and spatially inconsistent.

11) Feng, Y., and H. P. Chen, 2016: Warming over the North Pacific can intensify snow events in Northeast China. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 9(2), 122-128. 摘要

The variation of winter snowfall intensity over Northeast China and its relationship with the autumn<br /> North Pacific SST are investigated for the period 1960&ndash;2012. An upward trend is apparent for the<br /> winter snowfall intensity over Northeast China during the last half-century, coinciding with an<br /> increasing autumn SST over the North Pacific. Their interannual correlation coefficient reaches up to<br /> 0.58 for the past five decades, and 0.42 after their trends are removed. Further analyses indicate that<br /> the warming SST during autumn may persist into winter. Correspondingly, large parts of East Asia<br /> and the North Pacific are dominated by an anticyclonic anomaly, which can induce an anomalous<br /> southeasterly over Northeast China, weaken the northerly wind, then warm the surface, increase<br /> the water vapor content and intensify snowfall events. Thus, the autumn North Pacific SST can be<br /> considered as a key predictor for winter snowfall events over Northeast China. Results from leaveone-<br /> out cross-validation and independent validation both show a significant correlation and a<br /> small RMSE between prediction and observation. Therefore, the autumn SST over the North Pacific<br /> is suggested as a potential predictor for winter snowfall intensity in Northeast China.

12) Tian, Z., and D. Jiang, 2016: Revisiting last glacial maximum climate over China and East Asian monsoon using PMIP3 simulations. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 453, 115-126, doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2016.04.020. 摘要 PDF

Using simulations performed by all available climate models participating in the latest Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 3 (PMIP3), we revisited the climate over China and the East Asian monsoon during the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21,000 years ago). Similar to previous results obtained from the PMIP phases 1 and 2 (PMIP1/2) models, all nine models reproduced colder than the pre-industrial annual and seasonal temperatures over China during the LGM and underestimated the annual cooling as evidenced by proxy data. The LGM annual and seasonal precipitation and evaporation over China consistently decreased in the models, whereas the very small LGM change in net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation) differed among models. The annual net precipitation change during the LGM was broadly consistent with reconstructed moisture conditions over most parts of China, especially over the western Tibetan Plateau where the PMIP1/2 models disagreed with the proxy data. Moreover, the LGM winter monsoon circulation weakened (strengthened) over the East Asian continent in four (one) of five models; the summer monsoon circulation generally weakened in two models, whereas it weakened north and strengthened south of about 30N over East Asia in three models. The spatial patterns of the LGM change in East Asian winter and summer monsoons in the PMIP3 models differed somewhat from those in the PMIP1/2 simulations.

13) Zhu, Y.L., T. Wang , H. J. Wang, 2016: Relative contribution of the anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to the interdecadal shift of climate during the late 1970s and 1990s. Science Bulletin, 61, 416-424. 摘要

14) Zhu, Y. L., T. Wang, and J. H. Ma, 2016: Influence of internal decadal variability on the summer rainfall in eastern China as simulated by CCSM4. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 706-714. 摘要

15) Zhu, Y. L., and T. Wang, 2016: The relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO as simulated by CCSM4. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 9, 198-203. 摘要

16) Miao, J. P., T. Wang*, Y. L. Zhu, J. Z. Min, H. J. Wang, D. Guo, 2016: Response of the East Asian winter monsoon to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Journal of Climate, 29, 5041-5057. 摘要

17) Zhu, Y. L., T. Wang, and H. J. Wang, 2016: Relative contribution of the anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to the interdecadal shift of climate during the late 1970s and 1990s. Science Bulletin, 61(5), 416-424. 摘要 PDF

Global warming accelerated after the late 1970s and slowed down after the late 1990s, accompanying the significant interdecadal changes in the regional climate. We hypothesized that the interdecadal changes linearly consisted of two independent components, anthropogenic forcing and natural decadal variability, which can be represented simply by the radiative forcing effect of carbon dioxide eRFCO2 T and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), respectively. The combined effect of the RFCO2 and PDO could explain the majority of the surface temperature changes during the late 1970s and 1990s, but the magnitudes of the relative contribution of the RFCO2 and the PDO are inconsistent in different regions. For both the surface temperature and geopotential height, the RFCO2 could induce significantly positive anomalies over almost the entire globe for these two shifts, exhibiting a larger magnitude in the mid–high latitudes and in the late 1990s shift. The PDO could induce opposite anomalies for the two interdecadal shifts due to its phase transitions (negative–positive–negative). Furthermore, for the shift in the late 1970s, both the RFCO2 (53.7 %–66.7 %) and the PDO (33.3 %–46.3 %) were important in regulating the tropical geopotential height, whereas the RFCO2 dominated the changes in the mid-latitudes. For the western Pacific subtropical high, the RFCO2 (PDO) could explain 52.3 %–62.1 % (37.9 %–47.7 %) of the change. The negative effect of the PDO counteracted most of the RFCO2 effects for the late 1990s shift.


18) Zhu, Y. L., T. Wang, and J. H. Ma, 2016: Influence of internal decadal variability on the summer rainfall in eastern China as simulated by CCSM4. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33(6), 706-714. 摘要 PDF

The combined impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the summer rainfall in eastern China was investigated using CCSM4. The strongest signals occur with the combination of a positive PDO and a negative AMO (+PDO−AMO), as well as a negative PDO and a positive AMO (−PDO+AMO). For the +PDO−AMO set, significant positive rainfall anomalies occur over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YR), when the East Asian summer monsoon becomes weaker, while the East Asian westerly jet stream becomes stronger, and ascending motion over the YR becomes enhanced due to the jet-related secondary circulation. Contrary anomalies occur over East Asia for the −PDO+AMO set. The influence of these two combinations of PDO and AMO on the summer rainfall in eastern China can also be observed in the two interdecadal rainfall changes in eastern China in the late 1970s and late 1990s.


19) Zhu, Y. L., and T. Wang, 2016: The relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO as simulated by CCSM4. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 9(2), . 摘要 PDF

The correlation between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and ENSO reflects the strength of the interaction between climate systems in the low and high latitudes. Based on the long-term (501 years) control simulation of CCSM4, the authors investigated the linkage between the AO and ENSO in boreal winter. Based on the correlation coefficients between them, the authors divided the entire period into two groups: one that included the years with statistically significant correlations (G1), and the other the years with insignificant correlations (G2). In G1, the AO-related atmospheric circulation pattern resembles the ENSO-related one. The Aleutian Low (AL) acts as a bridge linking these two modes. In G2, however, the AO and ENSO signals are confined to the mid-high and mid-low latitudes, respectively. There is no significant linkage between the AO and ENSO in boreal winter, showing a low correlation coefficient. Further analysis suggests that changes in the climatological features, including the strengthened AO, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase, and the weakened AL, may be responsible for the enhanced relationships.


20) Miao, J. P., T. Wang, Y.L. Zhu, J. Z. Min, H.J. Wang, D. Guo, 2016: Response of the East Asian winter monsoon to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Journal of Climate, , DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0600.1. 摘要

21) He Shengping, Huijun Wang, 2016: Linkage between the East Asian January temperature extremes and the preceding Arctic Oscillation. International Journal of Climatology, 36, 1026-1032. 摘要 PDF

22) Hao Xin, Fei Li, Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang, and Shengping He, 2016: Assessment of the response of the East Asian winter monsoon to ENSO-like SSTAs in three U.S. CLIVAR Project models. International Journal of Climatology, 36(2), 847-866. 摘要 PDF

23) Miao Jiapeng, Wang Tao, Zhu Yali, Min Jinzhong, Wang Huijun, Guo Dong, 2016: Response of the East Asian winter monsoon to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Journal of Climate, 29(13), 5041-5057. 摘要 PDF

24) Wang Aihui, Zeng Xubin, Guo Donglin, 2016: Estimates of global surface hydrology and heat fluxes from the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) with four atmospheric forcing datasets. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17, 2493–2510. 摘要 PDF

25) Ting-Ting LI, Wei ZHANG, Jun WANG, Wen ZHANG, Guo-Cheng WANG, Jing-Jing XU & Qing ZHANG, 2016: Parameterizing an agricultural production model for simulating nitrous oxide emissions in a wheat–maize system in the North China Plain. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters , 9(6), 403-410. 摘要 PDF

<span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">Concentrations of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O), a potent greenhouse gas, have been continuously increasing, and cropland soils are one of the largest sources of N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O. Variations in environmental and anthropogenic factors have substantial impacts on both the frequency and magnitude of N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O emissions. Based on measurements from a wheat&ndash;maize system in the North China Plain, the authors parameterized the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model, which was initially developed in Australia, for simulating N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O emissions under different agricultural management practices. After calibrating one of the key parameters &ndash; the fraction of N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O lost in nitrification (</span><i style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">k</i><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">) &ndash; the results showed that the model successfully captured the daily N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O fluxes under different nitrogen fertilization treatments, but underestimated some large peak fluxes. By pooling all data together, the calibrated APSIM model also performed well in representing cumulative N</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">O emissions under various treatments at annual and finer (monthly and daily) time scales.</span><br /> <span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">农田土壤是大气氧化亚氮的一个重要排放源,农田氧化亚氮的排放同时受到气候环境和人为活动的复杂影响。本文基于中国华北平原的一个农田试验站的观测数据,对农业生产模拟器(APSIM)进行参数化,并检验该模型在不同时间尺度上模拟农田氧化亚氮排放的能力。结果表明,对消化系数(</span><i style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">k</i><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 0; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline; bottom: -0.25em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif;">2</span><span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17.6px;">)进行校正后,模型能够较好地模拟不同时间尺度和不同施肥处理下小麦-玉米系统的土壤氧化亚氮排放,但是对于一些较高的峰值排放模拟效果欠佳。</span>

26) 贺圣平, 王会军, 徐鑫萍, 李婧祎, 2016: 2015/2016冬季北极世纪之暖与超级厄尔尼诺对东亚气候的影响. 大气科学学报, 39(6), 735-743. 摘要


1) Jiang, D., Z. Tian, and X. Lang, 2015: Mid-Holocene global monsoon area and precipitation from PMIP simulations. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2493-2512, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2175-8. 摘要 PDF

Towards a better insight into orbital-scale changes in global monsoon, here we examine global monsoon area (GMA) and precipitation (GMP) as well as GMP intensity (GMPI) in the mid-Holocene, approximately 6,000 years ago, using all available numerical experiments from the Paleoclimate Modelling intercomparison Project. Compared to the reference period, both the mid-Holocene GMA and GMP increased in the majority of the 35 models chosen for analysis according to their ability, averaging 5.5 and 4.2 %, respectively, which were mainly due to the increase in monsoon area and precipitation over the boreal land and austral ocean. The mid-Holocene GMPI decreased in most models and by an average of 1.2 %, mainly due to the decrease in monsoon precipitation intensity over the boreal ocean and austral land. The mid-Holocene GMA, GMP, and GMPI all showed opposite changes both between the land and ocean in the northern or southern hemisphere and between the boreal and austral land or ocean. Orbital-induced changes in large-scale meridional temperature gradient and land-sea thermal contrast are the underlying mechanisms, and the presence of an interactive ocean has an amplifying effect in the boreal land monsoon areas overall. Qualitatively, the model-data comparison indicates agreement in the boreal land monsoon areas and South America but disagreement in southern Africa and northern Australia.

2) Tian, Z., and D. Jiang, 2015: Mid-Holocene ocean feedback on global monsoon area and precipitation. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8, 29-32, doi:10.3878/AOSL20140068. 摘要 PDF

Mid-Holocene ocean feedback on global monsoon area, global monsoon precipitation (GMP), and GMP intensity (GMPI) was investigated by a set of numerical experiments performed with the Community Climate System Model version 4. Results showed that ocean feedback induced an increase in land monsoon area for northern Africa but a decrease for Asia and North and South America, and led to an increase in ocean monsoon area for the western Indian Ocean and southeastern Pacific but a decrease for the eastern Indian Ocean, tropical western Pacific, and tropical West Atlantic between the mid-Holocene and pre-industrial period. Dynamic ocean-induced changes in GMP and GMPI were 10.9 x 10^9 m^3/d and -0.11 mm/d between the two periods, respectively. Ocean feedback induced consistent change between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere land or ocean but opposite change between land and ocean in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere monsoon areas for monsoon precipitation. The mid-Holocene summer changes in meridional temperature gradient and land-sea thermal contrast were the underlying mechanisms.

3) 田芝平,姜大膀, 2015: 全新世中期和末次冰盛期中国季风区面积和季风降水变化. 科学通报, 60, 400-410, doi:10.1360/N972014-00718. 摘要 PDF


4) Wang, H.J., H.P. Chen, and J.P. Liu, 2015: Arctic Sea Ice Decline Intensified Haze Pollution in Eastern China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8(1), 1-9. 摘要

Air quality in eastern China has becoming more and more worrying in recent years, and haze is now No.1 air pollution issue. Results in this study show the decreasing Arctic sea ice (ASI) is an important contributor to the recent increased haze days in eastern China. The authors find that the number of winter haze days (WHD) in eastern China is strongly negatively correlated with the preceding autumn ASI during 1979&ndash;2012, and about 45%&ndash;67% of the WHD interannual to interdecadal variability<br /> can be explained by ASI variability. Following previous studies on the impact of ASI loss on the northern hemisphere climate, the authors&rsquo; studies further reveal that the<br /> reduction of autumn ASI leads to positive sea-level pressure anomalies in mid-latitude Eurasia, northward shift of track of cyclone activity in China, and weak Rossby wave<br /> activity in eastern China south of 40N during winter season. These atmospheric circulation changes favor less cyclone activity and more stable atmosphere in eastern<br /> China, leading to more haze days there. Furthermore, the patterns of circulation changes associated with autumn ASI and WHD are in very good agreement over the East Asia, particularly in eastern China. The authors suggest that haze pollution may continue to be a serious issue in the near future as the decline of ASI continues under<br /> global warming.

5) Yu Entao, Sun Jianqi, Chen Huopo, Xiang Weiling, 2015: Evaluation of a high‑resolution historical simulation over China: climatology and extremes. Climate Dynamics, 45, 2013–2031. 摘要 PDF

China faces an increasing challenge in water resources in the coming decades; thus high-confidence climate projection is of particular importance for the country&rsquo;s future. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of a long high-resolution continuous simulation over China based on multiple observations and the corresponding historical simulation. The simulation is completed by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results show that both MIROC5 and WRF can capture the distribution and variability of temperature over China, whereas WRF shows improvements, particularly for simulation of regional features. Compared with MIROC5, WRF can reproduce the spatial distribution, annual cycle, probability distribution, and seasonal evolution of the precipitation over mainland China and the sub-regions with better performance. The trend is of fundamental importance in the future projection estimations, and WRF shows better skill in simulating the annual mean precipitation trend. However, there is overestimation of precipitation in Southeast China while negative one in the middle latitude of China in WRF simulation, which can be traced back to model bias in atmospheric circulation and water vapor transportation in these regions. Several extreme climate indices are selected to further assess the model&rsquo;s performance in simulating climate extremes, WRF can well reproduce the main features with better model skill compared with MIROC5. The better performance of WRF indicates the necessity of the dynamical downscaling technique and the robustness of regional climate simulation in future regional climate projection.

6) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2015: Assessing model performance of climate extremes in China: an intercomparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3. Climatic Change, , DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1319-5. 摘要 PDF

In this study, we present a brief analysis of the performances of global climate<br /> models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating climate extreme events in China and compare the results with those of the previous model generation (CMIP3). The primary focus of this analysis is the climate mean and variability of each extreme index. Results show that the CMIP5 models are generally able to capture the mean climate extremes and trends compared with a new gridded observational dataset. The model spread for some extreme indices is reduced in CMIP5 when compared with CMIP3. Furthermore, the models generally show higher skills in simulating the temperaturebased indices than the precipitation-based indices in terms of means and linear trends. Results from six reanalyses further reveal large uncertainties for these indices and it is difficult to say which reanalysis is better for comparison with the simulations of all indices. Based on the relative errors of the climatology, the model evaluation varies considerably from one index to another. However, some models appear to perform substantially better than the others when the average of all indices is considered for each model, and the median ensembles outperform the individual models in terms of all the extreme indices and their means. Additionally, a relationship is observed between the improved simulation of the climate mean and the improved performance of its variability, although this improvement is limited to particular models.

7) Q. Yan, Z. Zhang, H. Wang and D. Jiang, 2015: Simulated warm periods of climate over China during the last two millennia: The Sui-Tang warm period versus the Song-Yuan warm period. Journal of Geophysical Research, , . 摘要

当我们回顾中国的历史,唐朝的辉煌常让人津津乐道,宋朝的文弱常让人扼腕叹息。农业社会的中国,其实力的强弱往往和气候联系在一起;气候暖的时候,中国古代社会就会强盛。其实,唐朝和宋朝是我国过去两千年中两个典型的暖期,其温度与二十世纪早期相当。经济、教育、文化和外交在这两个朝代都取得了重要的进展。为什么类似的暖期气候条件会导致让人感觉截然不同的朝代,这是一个非常重要的自然和社会科学问题。利用耦合模式CESM,我们开展了过去两千年(0&minus;2000 AD)的瞬变模拟试验,比较了唐朝初期(650&minus;700 AD)和宋朝初期(950&minus;1000 AD)中国气候变化特征。研究发现尽管这两个时期,中国平均温度均偏高,但在空间分布上有很大的差异。唐朝初期增温主要出现在黄河流域、中原腹地,是区域尺度上大气净能量的增加以及有利的热量输送所造成的;而宋朝初期全国普遍增温,是太阳辐射强度的增加造成的。因此,唐朝暖期是一个区域现象,而宋朝暖期是全球或半球尺度上的暖事件在中国的体现。<br /> Qing Yan,&nbsp;Zhongshi Zhang,&nbsp;Huijun Wang and Dabang Jiang, 2015: Simulated warm periods of climate over China during the last two millennia: The Sui-Tang warm period versus the Song-Yuan warm period, Journal of Geophysical Research, doi: 10.1002/2014JD022941.<br /> 文章链接:<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD022941/abstract">http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD022941/abstract</a><br />
图1. 模拟的唐朝初期(650−700 AD; a)和宋朝初期(950−1000 AD; b)年平均温度的异常。 

8) Baoqiang Tian, Ke Fan, 2015: A skillful prediction model for winter NAO based on Atlantic sea surface temperature and Eurasian snow cover. Weather and Forecasting, 30(1), 197-205. 摘要

引用格式:Tian B. Q., K. Fan. A skillful of prediction model for winter NAO based on Atlantic sea surface temperature and Eurasian snow cover. Weather and Forecasting, 2015, 30(1): 197–205, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00100.1.

9) Wang, H. J., K. Fan, J. Q. Sun, S. L. Li, Z. H. Lin, G. Q. Zhou, L. J. Chen, X. M. Lang, F. Li, Y. L. Zhu, H. Chen, and F. Zheng, 2015: A review of seasonal climate prediction research in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 32(2), 149-168. 摘要 PDF

The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950s, based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program (WCRP) was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.


10) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2015: Drought Response to Air Temperature Change over China on the Centennial Scale. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8(3), 113-119. 摘要 PDF

Climate data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) for the period 1901&ndash;2013 are used to investigate the drought response to air temperature change over China on the centennial scale. Drought is observed to have increased evidently across China, except for some regions in eastern China. This increase is much stronger in northern China compared to southern China, especially in Northwest and North China. These change characteristics of drought are closely associated with air temperature change, with the severe droughts in the major drought episodes of the last century generally coinciding with higher temperatures. The significantly increasing trend of drought in China based on observations only appears when considering the effects of air temperature change, which can explain ~49% of droughts in observations and 30%&ndash;65% of droughts in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations. Furthermore, the response of drought to air temperature change<br /> generally increases as the drought time scale increases. Furthermore, drought shows relatively high sensitivity in spring and early summer in China on the centennial scale.

11) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2015: Changes in Drought Characteristics over China Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Journal of Climate, 28, 5430-5447. 摘要 PDF

The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is computed and compared in China using reference evapotranspiration calculated using the Thornthwaite (TH) approach and the Penman-Monteith (PM) equation. The analysis reveals that SPEI_PM outperforms the SPEI_TH with regard to drought monitoring during the period 1961-2012 over China, especially in arid regions of China. Furthermore, the SPEI_PM also performs better with regard to observed variations in soil moisture and streamflow in China. Thus, changes in drought characteristics over China are detected on the basis of variations in the SPEI_PM. The results indicate that droughts over China exhibit pronounced decadal variations over the past 50 years, with more frequent and severe droughts occurring before the 1980s and in the 2000s compared with the 1980s and 1990s. Since the late 1990s, droughts have become more frequent and severe across China, especially in some regions of northern China. Concurrently, consecutive drought events have also increased across China. This suggests that dry conditions in China have been enhanced in recent years. Further analyses illustrate that the temperature and precipitation anomalies exhibit different roles in detecting droughts across China, which is primarily due to the magnitude of their variations and different climate variability. Considering temperature and precipitation perturbations, droughts exhibit relatively larger responses to temperature fluctuations in northern China and relatively larger responses to precipitation anomalies in southern China.

12) Han, T. T., H. P. Chen, and H. J. Wang, 2015: Recent changes in summer precipitation in Northeast China and the background circulation. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.4280, . 摘要

This study documents recent changes in the characteristics of summer (July&ndash;August&ndash;September) precipitation in Northeast China (NEC).Asignificant shift to less precipitation occurred in 1999&ndash;2012 as compared with that in 1984&ndash;1998. The reduced precipitation in the later period is closely associated with the large-scale anomalous high pressure over East Asia and anomalous descending motion over NEC. Furthermore, the significant reductions in the total cloud cover and moisture content also contribute to the reduced precipitation over NEC. To investigate the possible mechanism for the decadal shift of summer precipitation, a northeast Asian summermonsoon (NEASM) index is defined to describe the monsoon circulation over<br /> NEC. The results indicate that the NEASM has weakened since 1999 and is concurrent with the shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to the negative phase. Warming sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific can zonally reduce the land-sea thermal contrast and lead to a weak NEASM. Further investigation indicates that the negative phase of the PDO has significant impacts on the atmospheric circulation associated with the NEASM. Additionally, changes in synchronous Arctic sea ice cover (SIC) also likely induce an anomalous sinking movement and weaken water vapour transport; thus, the summer precipitation over NEC decreases.

13) HE Shengping, 2015: Potential connection between the Australian summer monsoon circulation and summer precipitation over central China. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 8, 120-126. 摘要 PDF

14) Baoqiang Tian,Ke Fan, 2015: Seasonal Prediction Assessment of the South Asian Summer Monsoon: ENSEMBLES versus DEMETER. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8(4), 208–214. 摘要

15) Li Fei, Gao Yongqi, 2015: The Project Siberian High in CMIP5 Models. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 8(4), 179-184. 摘要

16) Li Fei, Wang Huijun, Gao Yongqi, 2015: Extra-tropical ocean warming and wintertime Arctic sea ice cover since the 1990s. J. Climate, 28, 5510–5522. 摘要

17) Chen, H.P., and H. J. Wang, 2015: Haze Days in North China and the associated atmospheric circulations based on daily visibility data from 1960 to 2012. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere, 120, DOI:10.1002/2015JD023225. 摘要 PDF

Haze is a severe hazard that greatly influences traffic and daily life with great economic losses and threats to human health. To enhance understanding of the haze occurrences, this study examined the haze variations over North China and their associated atmospheric circulations for the period of 1960-2012 using daily visibility data. Results indicate that the haze events over this region primarily occur in boreal winter of year and mainly in the morning of day. The results of the analysis of the long-term variations indicate that the annual haze days were relatively few in the 1960s but increased steeply in the 1970s and have remained stable to the present. Some differences are obvious among seasons. A stably increasing trend is discernable in summer and autumn, relatively low in the 1960s and the 1990s&ndash;2000s and relatively high in the 1970s&ndash;1980s in spring and winter. Haze variations in urban regions are quite similar to haze variations in rural regions but with more haze days in urban regions because of the high aerosol emissions. Further analyses indicate that the occurrences of severe haze events in boreal winter generally correlate with the weakened northerly winds and the development of inversion anomalies in the lower troposphere, the weakened East Asian trough in the midtroposphere, and the northward East Asian jet in the high troposphere. All of these factors provide a favorable atmospheric background for the maintenance and development of haze events in this region.http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2015/0630/20150630081738611.pdf

18) Jiang, D., Z. Tian, X. Lang, M. Kageyama, and G. Ramstein, 2015: The concept of global monsoon applied to the last glacial maximum: A multi-model analysis. Quaternary Science Reviews, 126, 126-139. 摘要 PDF

The last glacial maximum (LGM, ca. 21,000 years ago) has been extensively investigated for better understanding of past glacial climates. Global-scale monsoon changes, however, have not yet been determined. In this study, we examine global monsoon area (GMA) and precipitation (GMP) as well as GMP intensity (GMPI) at the LGM using the experiments of 17 climate models chosen from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) according to their ability to reproduce the present global monsoon climate. Compared to the reference period (referring to the present day, ca. 1985, for three atmospheric plus two atmosphere-slab ocean models and the pre-industrial period, ca. 1750, for 12 fully coupled atmosphere-ocean or atmosphere-ocean-vegetation models), the LGM monsoon area increased over land and decreased over the oceans. The boreal land monsoon areas generally shifted southward, while the northern boundary of land monsoon areas retreated southward over southern Africa and South America. Both the LGM GMP and GMPI decreased in most of the models. The GMP decrease mainly resulted from the reduced monsoon precipitation over the oceans, while the GMPI decrease was derived from the weakened intensity of monsoon precipitation over land and the boreal ocean. Quantitatively, the LGM GMP deficit was due to, first, the GMA reduction and, second, the GMPI weakening. In response to the LGM large ice sheets and lower greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, the global surface and tropospheric temperatures cooled, the boreal summer meridional temperature gradient increased, and the summer land-sea thermal contrast at 40S-70N decreased. These are the underlying dynamic mechanisms for the LGM monsoon changes. Qualitatively, simulations agree with reconstructions in all land monsoon areas except in the western part of northern Australia where disagreements occur and in South America and the southern part of southern Africa where there is uncertainty in reconstructions. Simulations do not support an inter-hemispheric anti-phasing of monsoon intensity change as suggested by proxy data.

19) Li, X., D. Jiang, Z. Zhang, R. Zhang, Z. Tian, and Q. Yan, 2015: Mid-Pliocene westerlies from PlioMIP simulations. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 32, 909-923. 摘要 PDF

The midlatitude westerlies are one of the major components of the global atmospheric circulation. They play an important role in midlatitude weather and climate, and are particularly significant in interpreting aeolian sediments. In this study, we analyzed the behavior and the possible mechanism involved in the change of the westerlies, mainly in terms of the jet stream position, in the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3 to 3.0 million years ago) using simulations of 15 climate models from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Compared to the reference period, the mid-Pliocene midlatitude westerlies generally shifted poleward (approximately 3.6◦ of latitude in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.9◦ of latitude in the Southern Hemisphere at 850 hPa level) with a dipole pattern. The dipole pattern of the tropospheric zonal wind anomalies was closely related to the change of the tropospheric meridional temperature gradient as a result of thermal structure adjustment. The poleward shift of the midlatitude westerly jet corresponded to the poleward shift of the mean meridional circulation. The sea surface temperatures and sea ice may have affected the simulated temperature structure and zonal winds, causing the spread of the westerly anomalies in the mid-Pliocene between the atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations.

20) Tian, Z., and D. Jiang, 2015: Revisiting mid-Holocene temperature over China using PMIP3 simulations. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8, 358-364, doi:10.3878/AOSL20150040. 摘要 PDF

Using the simulations performed by 15 climate models under the latest protocol of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) Phase 3 (PMIP3), the authors revisited the annual and seasonal temperature changes over China during the mid-Holocene. Similar to the previous results produced by PMIP Phase 1 (PMIP1) and 2 (PMIP2) models, 14 (15) of the 15 PMIP3 models reproduced colder annual (boreal winter and spring) temperature in response to mid-Holocene insolation changes, with an average cooling of 0.33 K (1.31 K and 1.58 K) over China. The mid-Holocene boreal summer (autumn) temperature increased in all (13) of the 15 PMIP3 models, with an average warming of 1.02 K (0.61 K) at the national scale. Those changes simulated by the PMIP3 models were similar to those from the PMIP2 simulations but generally weaker than those from the PMIP1 models. A considerable mismatch still existed between the simulated cooling by the PMIP3 models and the reconstructed warming for annual and winter temperatures over China during the mid-Holocene, as was also the case between the previous PMIP1/2 simulations and proxy data.

21) Yu Entao, Xiang Weiling, 2015: Projected Climate Change in the Northwestern Arid Regions of China: An Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 8 (3), 134-142. 摘要 PDF

22) 于恩涛,孙建奇,吕光辉,陈活泼,向伟玲 , 2015: 西部干旱区未来气候变化高分辨率预估. 干旱区地理, 38(3), 429-437. 摘要 PDF

<span style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: tahoma, arial; font-size: 14px;">利用高分辨率区域气候模式WRF,基于CMIP5计划中MIROC5输出结果,进行了我国高分辨率(30 km)的历史模拟及未来预估。针对我国西部干旱区,在模式验证的基础上分析了该区域未来气温和降水的变化。历史模拟结果显示WRF对我国西部干旱区有较好的模拟能力,模拟结果较MIROC5有明显改进。21世纪西部干旱区将持续增暖,末期的增温幅度明显高于中期。和全国平均相比,西部干旱区21世纪增温幅度高于全国平均水平。空间分布上,年平均气温变化的主要特征是新疆南部增温高于新疆北部,山区的增温高于盆地。气温季节变化主要表现为夏季增温集中在山区,而冬季增温则更多集中在盆地。西部干旱区降水在21世纪总体呈现减少趋势,夏季降水减少更为明显,这和全国平均的降水增加并不一致。空间分布上,降水变化的主要特征是山区降水减少,其中夏季山区降水减少十分明显,而盆地降水则略有增加。</span>

23) Li, H. X., H. P. Chen, and H. J. Wang, 2015: Changes in clustered extreme precipitation events in South China and associated atmospheric circulations. Int. J. Climatol., DOI:10.1002/joc.4549, . 摘要 PDF

Previous studies have documented that the summer precipitation over South China (SC) has experienced a prominent inter-decadal increase in 1992/1993, and the possible mechanism has been well revealed. The aim of this study is to investigate the changes in extreme precipitation and clustered extreme precipitation events in recent decades using station observations and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The results indicate that extreme precipitation also experienced a significant inter-decadal increase around 1992/1993. Significant changes can also be found in the associated atmospheric circulations, such as the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and the westerly jet stream over East Asia. In addition, the water vapour transport (WVT) related to extreme precipitation differed from mean conditions. For extreme precipitation events, the WVT from the Northwest Pacific and Indian Oceans was much stronger when compared with mean precipitation. When extreme<br /> precipitation events were clustered, the increased WVT mainly originated from the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean. Further analysis indicates that theWVTincreased from the Indian Ocean but decreased from theNorthwest Pacific after 1992/1993; this finding explains the significant increase in the clustered extreme precipitation events over SC after 1992/1993. In addition, the atmospheric stratification has become more unstable since 1992/1993.