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2014

1) Wang, A. and X. Zeng, 2014: Land surface air temperature diurnal range over high northern latitudes. Journal of Geophysical Research, in press, . 摘要


2) Ge, J.Y., Z. T. Guo, D. Zhao, Y. Zhang, T. Wang, L. Yi, C. L. Deng, 2014: Spatial variations in paleowind direction during the last glacial period in north China reconstructed from variations in the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility of loess deposits. Tectonophysics, 629, 353–361. 摘要

Anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) of Chinese loess is considered to be an effective tool for determining paleowind direction. However, the relationship between AMS and the paleowind direction is still a matter of debate. This study reports the results of AMS measurements of Chinese loess deposited during the last glacial period on slopes of varying slope angles and orientations. The sites are located on the Chinese Loess Plateau, in West Qinling, and on the eastern margin of Qilian Mountain. The results show that within the same region, magnetic lineations are clustered along similar orientations despite differences in slope exposure and slope angle, but that different regions exhibit different directions of magnetic lineation. These results suggest that the alignment of the magnetic grains during deposition of the eolian deposits was determined by air circulation rather than by water flow on the surface of the slopes, and therefore that the AMS of Chinese loess can be used to determine paleowind directions. In addition, our results indicate that the AMS of Chinese loess is determined mainly by the patterns of regional surface wind flow that occurred during dust accumulation rather than by the uniform pattern of large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition, since wind direction is influenced significantly by regional topography, the AMS of Chinese loess may have the potential to detect significant changes in past regional topography.

3) Yan, Q., H. J. Wang, O. M. Johannessen, and Z. S. Zhang, 2014: Greenland ice sheet contribution to future global sea level rise based on CMIP5 models. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 31(1), 8-16. 摘要

    格陵兰冰盖是现代北半球唯一的陆地冰盖,其物质平衡变化对全球海平面上升具有重要的影响。同时,格陵兰冰盖融化将导致大量的淡水注入到北大西洋,减弱北大西洋经圈翻转环流,进而影响到全球气候。因此,本文利用最新的CMIP5模式预估结果和冰盖模式SICOPOLIS,模拟研究了21世纪格陵兰冰盖物质平衡的变化以及冰盖融化对全球海平面上升的贡献。在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下,SICOPOLIS模拟结果表明,格陵兰冰盖融化将导致全球海平面在2100年时分别上升0&minus;16 cm和0&minus;27 cm(相对于1986&minus;2005);如果考虑未来冰盖底部滑动加倍,全球海平面将分别上升7&minus;22 cm和7&minus;33 cm。基于多模式集合平均的结果,全球海平面在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下将分别上升4 cm和7 cm(考虑底部滑动增强时,分别为10 cm和13 cm)。上述海平面预估的不确定性正反映了在相同的外部强迫下全球模式预估结果的离散性,而评估模式并选择性的使用模式可以在一定程度上减小海平面预估的不确定范围。</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

4) Li, F., H. J. Wang, and Y. Q. Gao, 2014: Modulation of Aleutian Low and Antarctic Oscillation co-variability by ENSO. Climate Dyn, , . 摘要

    本文利用NCEP-NCAR再分析资料和NCAR CAM3,发现1月份AL和AAO之关系在1990s末之后显著加强,由之前的没有显著相关,变成了AL&ndash;(-AAO)显著正相关。进一步的研究表明,1990s末之后,ENSO在热带东太平洋引起垂直运动距平相对偏强,同时,东太平洋对流层高层的辐散也偏强,经向Hadley环流偏强。ENSO与南、北半球大气环流及气候联系加强是造成AL和AAO之关系加强的主要原因。</div>

5) Sui, Y., X. Lang, and D. Jiang, 2014: Time of emergence of climate signals over China under the RCP4.5 scenario. Climatic Change, 125, 265-276. 摘要


6) Ke Fan, Zhiqing Xu, Baoqiang Tian, 2014: Has the intensity of the interannual variability in summer rainfall. Meteorol Atmos Phys, 124, 23–32. 摘要


7) Yu Entao, Wang Tao, Gao Yongqi, Xiang Weiling, 2014: Precipitation Pattern of the Mid-Holocene Simulated by a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 31, 4. 摘要 PDF

Early proxy-based studies suggested that there potentially occurred a “southern drought/northern flood” (SDNF) over East China in the mid-Holocene (from roughly 7000 to 5000 years before present). In this study, we used both global and regional atmospheric circulation models to demonstrate that the SDNF—namely, the precipitation increases over North China and decreases over the the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley—could have taken place in the mid-Holocene.
We found that the SDNF in the mid-Holocene was likely caused by the lower SST in the Pacific. The lowered SST and the higher air temperature over mainland China increased the land–sea thermal contrast and, as a result, strengthened the East Asian summer monsoon and enhanced the precipitation over North China.

8) 潘攀,祝亚丽,王纪军, 2014: 近50年黄河流域气温变化特征及背景分析. 气候与环境研究, 19(4), 477-485. 摘要 PDF

利用1961~2010年黄河流域142个气象观测站的资料,详细分析了近50年黄河流域气温的时空分布和变化特征。黄河流域四季平均气温均呈现东部高、西部低、南部高、北部低的空间型态。对流域气温进行经验正交分解,第一模态呈现全流域一致的增温形势,上游增温幅度最大[0.40 °C (10 a)−1];第二模态表现为东西部反相变化;第三模态为南北部反相变化。四季气温随时间变化均呈现上升趋势,升温幅度冬季最大[0.52°C (10 a)1],其次是春季[0.30 °C (10 a)−1]、秋季[0.26 °C (10 a)−1]、夏季[0.14 °C (10 a)−1]。进一步分析表明,近50年来,黄河流域的气温增暖除了全球变暖的影响,可能还来自1980年代中期和1990年代后期两次年代际增暖的贡献,这与东亚季风的两次年代际变化时间节点是一致的。

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100657995.pdf



9) Zhang, R., D. Jiang, Z. Zhang, and E. T. Yu, 2014: The impact of regional uplift of the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian monsoon climate. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology, 417, 137-150. 摘要

<strong>青藏高原不同区域隆升对亚洲季风气候的影响</strong><br /> &nbsp;<br /> 青藏高原隆升的气候效应是古气候研究中的热点问题。以往研究中多将青藏高原作为一个整体来进行考虑,但越来越多的地质证据表明,青藏高原的不同区域存在隆升时间上的差异,所以有必要对青藏高原不同区域隆升的气候效应进行深入研究。虽然已有一些关注高原区域隆升的文章,但这些文章对青藏高原的区域划分较粗,没有划分出高原的东部和西部,并且仅仅关注了对夏季气候的影响。<br /> 基于此:本文就两个科学问题进行了研究:<br /> 1)青藏高原的东部和西部的隆升气候效应是什么?<br /> 2)青藏高原那些区域的隆升对东亚冬季风演变的影响更大?<br /> 模拟结果显示,对于南亚夏季风来说,喜马拉雅以及高原中南部的隆升对南亚夏季降水的增加影响较小。而高原东部和西部的进一步隆升对南亚夏季风的增强有显著作用。高原东部隆升后,由于地形的阻挡,在孟加拉湾地区低层产生异常的气旋性环流,同时上升运动增强,从而有利于区域降水的形成。而高原西部的隆起进一步增强了隆升区周围的气旋性环流,使得来自海洋的水汽输送增加,所以区域降水也出现增加。<br /> 对于东亚冬季风。模拟结果显示东亚冬季风的增强与青藏高原特定区域的隆升密切相关。其中,高原中南部、高原北部以及其他北部地形对东亚冬季风的增强有更为重要的作用,而其他区域的隆升作用较小。<br /> 引用格式:Zhang, R., D. Jiang, Z. Zhang, and E. T. Yu, 2015: The impact of regional uplift of the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian monsoon climate. <em>Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology</em>, <strong>417</strong>, 137&ndash;150.<br /> 正文下载地址:<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018214005458">http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018214005458</a><br />

10) Chen, H.P., J.Q. Sun, and X.L. Chen, 2014: Projection and uncertainty analysis of global precipitation-related extremes using CMIP5 models. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 2730-2748. 摘要

Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of precipitation-related extremes and to increase drought and flood risk. Thus, future changes in dryness and wetness over global land areas are analysed using future climate simulations from the World Climate Research Programme&rsquo;s (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP4.5 forcing scenario. Model reproducibility is evaluated first, and it is shown that high performance can be achieved in present-day climate simulations by models, particularly in multi-model ensemble (MME) results. For future climate simulations, the highest reliability regarding changes in precipitation and its related extremes is found over Northern high latitudes, while the lowest confidence levels are mainly localized over the tropics. The projections indicate a high likelihood that there will be a shift to fewer dryness but to more extreme precipitation events or/and flood events in future over Northern high latitudes. Among populated areas, Mediterranean basin is highlighted as displaying<br /> a relatively high reliability of increases in both dryness and wetness indicators, implying increased probabilities of both drought and flood events, despite the fact that there would be less precipitation. In North America and Asian monsoon areas, dryness indictors show no obvious changes, while markedly increases are found in wetness indicators, concurrent with a high model agreement. In contrast, southern Africa, Australia, and the Amazon basin show relatively high reliability regarding increases in dryness, but a low confidence level in wetness. The severity of these changes is not uniform across annual and seasonal scales and is region dependent. Two sources of uncertainty in projections are investigated in this study: internal and inter-model variability. The analysis indicates that internal and inter-model variability are the dominant sources of uncertainty in extreme climate projections, and inter-model variability is much larger and increases with time. Further analysis shows that both sources of uncertainty generally perform lower on annual and global scales than on seasonal and regional ones.

11) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2014: Changes in climate extreme events in China associated with warming. International Journal of Climatology, , doi:10.1002/joc.4168. 摘要

The science that humans are the cause of global warming, and that the associated climate change would lead to serious changes in climate extreme events, food production, freshwater resources, biodiversity, human mortality, etc. is unequivocal. After several political negotiations, a 2 ∘C warming has been considered to be the benchmark for such damaging changes. However, an increasing amount of scientific research indicates that higher levels of warming are increasingly likely. What would the world be like if such higher levels of warming occurred? This study aims to provide information for better politically driven mitigation through an investigation of the changes in temperature- and precipitation-based extreme indices using CMIP5 (coupled model intercomparison project phase 5) simulations of a warming of 1, 2, and 3 ∘C in China.Warming simulations show more dramatic effects in China compared with the global average. In general, the results show relatively small change signals in climate extreme events in China at 1 ∘C, larger anomalies at 2 ∘C, and stronger and more extended anomalies at 3 ∘C. Changes in the studied temperature indices indicate thatwarm eventswould bemore frequent and stronger in the future, and that cold events would be reduced and weakened. For changes in the precipitation indices, extreme precipitation generally increases faster than total wet-day precipitation, and China will experience more intensified extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, the risk of flooding is projected to increase, and the dry conditions over northern China are projected to be mitigated. In certain regions, particularly Southwest China, the risks of both drought and flood events would likely increase despite the decreased total precipitation in the future. Uncertainties mainly derived from inter-model and scenario variabilities are attached to these projections, but a high model agreement can be generally observed in the likelihood of these extreme changes.

12) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2014: Robustness of Precipitation Projections in China: Comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3 Models. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 7(1), 67-73. 摘要

Three sources of uncertainty in model projections of precipitation change in China for the 21st century were separated and quantified: internal variability, inter-model variability, and scenario uncertainty. Simulations from models involved in the third phase and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project<br /> (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were compared to identify improvements in the robustness of projections from the latest generation of models. No significant differences were<br /> found between CMIP3 and CMIP5 in terms of future precipitation projections over China, with the two datasets both showing future increases. The uncertainty can be<br /> attributed firstly to internal variability, and then to both inter-model and internal variability. Quantification analysis revealed that the uncertainty in CMIP5 models has<br /> increased by about 10%&ndash;60% with respect to CMIP3, despite significant improvements in the latest generation of models. The increase is mainly due to the increase of internal variability in the initial decades, and then mainly due to the increase of inter-model variability thereafter, especially by the end of this century. The change in scenario uncertainty shows no major role, but makes a negative<br /> contribution to begin with, and then an increase later.

13) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2014: Sensitivity of Climate Changes to CO2 Emissions in China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 7(5), 422-427. 摘要

In this study, the authors demonstrate that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models project a robust response in changes of mean and<br /> climate extremes to warming in China. Under a scenario of a 1% CO2 increase per year, surface temperature in China is projected to increase more rapidly than the<br /> global average, and the model ensemble projects more precipitation (2.2%/&deg;C). Responses in changes of climate extremes are generally much stronger than that of climate means. The majority of models project a consistent response, with more warm events but fewer cold events in China due to CO2 warming. For example, the ensemble mean indicates a high positive sensitivity for increasing summer days (12.4%/&deg;C) and tropical nights (26.0%/&deg;C), but a negative sensitivity for decreasing frost days (&minus;4.7%/&deg;C) and ice days (&minus;7.0%/&deg;C). Further analyses indicate that precipitation in China is likely to become more extreme, featuring a high positive sensitivity. The sensitivity is high (2.4%/&deg;C) for heavy precipitation days (&gt; 10 mm d&minus;1) and increases dramatically (5.3%/&deg;C) for very heavy precipitation days (&gt; 20 mm d&minus;1), as well as for precipitation amounts on very wet days (10.8%/&deg;C) and extremely wet days (22.0%/&deg;C). Thus, it is concluded that the more extreme precipitation events generally show higher sensitivity to CO2 warming. Additionally, southern China is projected to experience an increased risk of drought and flood occurrence, while an increased risk of flood but a decreased risk of drought is likely in other regions of China.

14) Li Fei, Huijun Wang, Jiping Liu, 2014: The strengthening relationship between Arctic Oscillation and ENSO after the mid-1990s. Int. J. Climatol., 34(7), 2515-2521. 摘要


15) Li Fei and Huijun Wang, 2014: Autumn Eurasian snow depth, autumn Arctic sea ice cover and East Asian winter monsoon. Int. J. Climatol., 34(13), 3616–3625. 摘要


16) Li Fei, Huijun Wang, Yongqi Gao, 2014: On the strengthened relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic Oscillation: A comparison of 1950–1970 and 1983–2012. Journal of Climate, 27(13), 5075-5091. 摘要


17) Li Fei, Huijun Wang, Yongqi Gao, 2014: Modulation of Aleutian Low and Antarctic Oscillation co-variability by ENSO. Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2134-4, . 摘要


18) Luo, F., and S. Li, 2014: Joint statistical-dynamical approach to decadal prediction of East Asian surface air temperature. Science China: Earth Sciences, 57(12), 3062–3072. 摘要

A joint statistical-dynamical method addressing both the internal decadal variability and effect of anthropogenic forcing was developed to predict the decadal components of East Asian surface air temperature (EATs) for three decades (2010–2040). As previous studies have revealed that the internal variability of EATs (EATs_int) is influenced mainly by the ocean, we first analyzed the lead-lag connections between EATs_int and three sea surface temperature (SST) multidecadal modes using instrumental records from 1901 to 1999. Based on the lead-lag connections, a multiple linear regression was constructed with the three SST modes as predictors. The hindcast for the years from 2000 to 2005 indicated the regression model had high skill in simulating the observational EATs_int. Therefore, the prediction for EATs_int (Re_EATs_int) was obtained by the regression model based on quasi-periods of the decadal oceanic modes. External forcing from greenhouse gases is likely associated with global warming. Using monthly global land surface air temperature from historical and projection simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario of 19 Coupled General Circulation Models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we predicted the curve of EATs (EATs_trend) relative to 1970–1999 by a second-order fit. EATs_int and EATs_trend were combined to form the reconstructed EATs (Re_EATs). It was expected that a fluctuating evolution of Re_EATs would decrease slightly from 2015 to 2030 and increase gradually thereafter. Compared with the decadal prediction in CMIP5 models, Re_EATs was qualitatively in agreement with the predictions of most of the models and the multi-model ensemble mean, indicating that the joint statistical-dynamical approach for EAT is rational.

19) Gao Yongqi, Sun Jianqi, Li Fei, He Shengping, Stein Sandven, Yan Qing, Zhang Zhongshi, Katja Lohmann, Noel Keenlyside, Tore Furevik, Suo Lingling, 2014: Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,, 32(1), 92-114. 摘要


20) Yanyan Huang, Huijun Wang, Ke Fan and Yongqi Gao, 2014: The Western Pacific Subtropical High after the 1970s: Westward or Eastward Shift?. Climate Dynamics, , . 摘要

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21) Yanyan Huang, Huijun Wang, and Ke Fan, 2014: Improving the Prediction of the Summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation Using the Interannual Increment Approach. Journal of Climate, 27, 8126–8134. 摘要

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22) Ma Jiehua, Wang Huijun, Zhang Ying, 2014: Will typhoon over the western North Pacific be more frequent in the blue Arctic conditions?. Science China: Earth Sciences, 57(7), 1494-1500. 摘要

    未来的全球变暖情景下, 西北太平洋台风活动会有怎样的变化? 利用CMIP3 模式在IPCC A1B情景下对未来气候的预估结果, 得到全球变暖之北极夏季(September)无海冰时的一种情景, 即蓝色北极. 利用相应的海温场和CO2 含量驱动一个全球大气环流模式, 来对北极夏季无海冰时的西北太平洋台风生成环境做出数值模拟. 试验结果表明, 蓝色北极情况下,6~10 月西北太平洋的大气环流和海洋环流都发生了明显变化, 影响台风活动的主要环境要素:纬向风垂直切变和向外射出长波辐射空间分布的变化分别有利于台风源地向偏西、偏北转变;与台风频数有密切联系的关键区中上述量的变化且皆利于台风频次的减少. 热带气旋生成潜力指数的变化表现为西北太平洋东部减小, 而西部增大. 因而呈现了非常复杂的变化格局.

23) Ma Jiehua, Wang Huijun, 2014: Design and testing of a global climate prediction system based on a coupled climate model. Science China: Earth Sciences, 57(10), 2417-2427. 摘要

    基于美国通用气候系统模式CCSM4 和自行设计的一套初始化方案, 建立了一个全球气候预测系统(PCCSM4), 并使用该预测系统对夏季气候进行了30 年(1981~2010)系统性的超前一个月的集合回报试验. 回报结果表明, PCCSM4 基本可以把握观测中夏季(JJA)平均海表面温度(SST)、海平面气压(SLP)和降水的主要分布特征; PCCSM4 对SST, 尤其是赤道中东太平洋关键区SST 具有较高的回报能力, 30 年的相关系数最高可达0.7; PCCSM4 对500 hPa 位势高度场、850hPa 纬向风场和海平面气压场的回报性能高于降水; 总的来看, 热带地区的可预测性高于全球,更高于东亚地区; PCCSM4 对于典型ENSO 年的夏季气候和亚洲夏季风的年际变化具有较好的回报能力, 经过进一步的检验和完善可以应用于全球和我国短期气候预测业务.

24) Liu Na, Shuanglin Li, 2014: Predicting Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze-Huai Region Based on Time-scale Decomposition Statistical Downscaling. Weather and Forecasting, 29, 162-176. 摘要


25) DONG Xiao, SU Tong-Hua, WANG Jun, LIN Ren-Ping, 2014: Decadal Variation of the Aleutian Low-Icelandic Low Seesaw Simulated by a Climate System Model (CAS-ESM-C). Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 7(2), 110-114. 摘要

<div>&nbsp;</div> <span style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;">Based on a simulation using a newly developed climate system model (Chinese Academy of Sciences-Earth System Model-Climate system component, CAS-ESM-C), the author investigated the Aleutian Low-Icelandic Low Seesaw (AIS) and its decadal variation. Results showed that the CAS-ESM-C can reasonably reproduce not only the spatial distribution of the climatology of sea level pressure (SLP) in winter, but also the AIS and its decadal variation. The period 496&ndash;535 of the integration by this model was divided into two sub-periods: 496&ndash;515 (P1) and 516&ndash;535 (P2) to further investigate the decadal weakening of the AIS. It was shown that this decadal variation of the AIS is mainly due to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), from its positive phase to its negative phase. This transition of the PDO causes the sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern (northern) Pacific to cool (warm), resulting in the decadal weakening of mid-latitude westerlies over the north Pacific and north Atlantic. This may be responsible for the weakening of the inverse relation between the Aleutian Low (AL) and the Icelandic Low (IL).</span><br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <span style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;">Cite this paper:</span><br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <span style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;">DONG Xiao, SU Tong-Hua, WANG Jun, LIN Ren-Ping, 2014: Decadal Variation of the Aleutian Low-Icelandic Low Seesaw Simulated by a Climate System Model (CAS-ESM-C) . Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 7(2), 110-114, doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.13.0061.</span><br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <span style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;">URL:</span><br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <br style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;" /> <span style="font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;">http://159.226.119.58/aosl/EN/10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.13.0061 OR http://159.226.119.58/aosl/EN/Y2014/V7/I2/110</span>

26) Dong Chen,Huijun Wang, Jiping Liu,Guoping Li, 2014: Why the spring North Pacific Oscillation is a predictor of typhoon activity over the Western North Pacific. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Published online, . 摘要


27) Ma Jiehua, Wang Huijun, Zhang Ying,, 2014: Will typhoon over the western North Pacific be more frequent in the blue Arctic conditions?. Science China: Earth Sciences, 57(7), 1494-1500. 摘要


28) Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, 2014: Simulated change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle on the Tibetan Plateau from 1981 to 2010. Chinese Science Bulletin, 59, 2439–2448. 摘要 PDF


29) 孙博,王会军, 2014: Analysis of the major atmospheric moisture sources affecting three sub-regions of East China. Int. J. Climatol., , doi: 10.1002/joc.4145. 摘要


30) 孙博,王会军, 2014: Inter-decadal transition of the leading mode of inter-annual variability of summer rainfall in East China and its associated atmospheric water vapor transport. Climate Dynmics, , doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2251-0. 摘要


31) 孙博,王会军, 2014: Moisture sources of semi-arid grassland in China using the Lagrangian Particle Model FLEXPART. Journal of Climate, 27, 2457-2474. 摘要


32) Yu, E. T., J. Q. Sun, H. P. Chen, and W. L. Xiang, 2014: Evaluation of a high‑resolution historical simulation over China: climatology and extremes. Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2452-6, . 摘要

China faces an increasing challenge in water resources in the coming decades; thus high-confidence climate projection is of particular importance for the country&rsquo;s future. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of a long high-resolution continuous simulation over China based on multiple observations and the corresponding historical simulation. The simulation is completed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison<br /> Project Phase 5. The results show that both MIROC5 and WRF can capture the distribution and variability of temperature over China, whereas WRF shows improvements, particularly for simulation of regional features. Compared with MIROC5, WRF can reproduce the spatial distribution, annual cycle, probability distribution, and seasonal evolution of the precipitation over mainland China and the subregions with better performance. The trend is of fundamental importance in the future projection estimations, and WRF shows better skill in simulating the annual mean precipitation trend. However, there is overestimation of precipitation<br /> in Southeast China while negative one in the middle latitude of China in WRF simulation, which can be traced back to model bias in atmospheric circulation and water vapor transportation in these regions. Several extreme climate indices<br /> are selected to further assess the model&rsquo;s performance in simulating climate extremes, WRF can well reproduce the main features with better model skill compared with MIROC5. The better performance of WRF indicates the necessity of the dynamical downscaling technique and the robustness of regional climate simulation in future regional climate projection over China.

33) Jing, Y., S. Li, J. Wan, and F. Luo, 2014: Relationships between the Oxygen Isotope in Stalagmites from East Asia and the Large Scale Atmospheric-Oceanic Modes. Atmos. Ocn. Sci. Lett., 7(6), 540-545. 摘要


2013

1) Wang, A. and X. Zeng, 2013: Development of global hourly 0.5-degree land surface air temperature datasets . Journal of Climate, 26, 7676-7691. 摘要

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2) Wang,A. and J.Fu, 2013: Changes in Daily Climate Extremes of Observed Temperature and Precipitation in China. Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Letters, 6, 312-319. 摘要

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3) Wang, T., and H.J. Wang, 2013: Mid-Holocene Asian summer climate and its responses to cold ocean surface simulated in the PMIP2 OAGCMs experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 4117-4128. 摘要

In this study, the outputs from four Ocean&ndash;Atmosphere Coupled General Circulation Model (OAGCM) experiments within the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) and four sets of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments were used to analyze the Asian summer climate during the mid-Holocene (6 ka, about 6000 years ago). Additionally, the role of the orbital forcings and the effects of a cold ocean surface for the 6 ka were investigated by comparing the AGCM simulations forced by different combinations of forcing parameters. The results indicated that in the 6 ka summer, the orbital forcings were the prime drivers of the increased temperature and precipitation as well as the strengthened summer monsoon over the Asian continent. On the other hand, these different orbital forcings also resulted in a colder Indian Ocean&ndash;northwestern Pacific during this period. Our results suggested that this cold ocean surface could reduce the warming amplitude and precipitation enhancement over the Asian monsoon area in the 6 ka summer. The changes caused by the different ocean surface conditions were comparable with simulated 6 ka climate changes. The cold ocean surface also suppressed the Asian summer monsoon circulations. Therefore, the influences from anomalous ocean surface conditions played an important role on regulating the Asian summer climate during the 6 ka. In addition, it was found that the summer climate in the South Asian monsoon area was more sensitive to the changes in the orbital forcings and ocean surface conditions than that in the East Asian monsoon area.

4) Wang, T., Y. Liu, and W. Huang, 2013: Last Glacial Maximum Sea Surface Temperatures: A Model-Data Comparison. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 6, 233-239. 摘要

In this study, we investigated changes in Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea surface temperature simulated by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) muitlmodels and reconstructed by the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) project, focusing on the model-data comparison. The results showed that the PMIP models produced greater ocean cooling in the North Pacific and Tropical Ocean than that in the MARGO, particularly in the Northwestern Pacific, where the model-data mismatch was larger. All the models failed to capture the anomalous east-west SST gradient in the North Atlantic. In addition, large discrepancies among the models could be observed in the mid-latitude ocean, particularly for the models in the second phase of the PMIP. Although they gave some better agreement with the MARGO, the latest models in the third phase of the PMIP could not show substantial progresses in simulating the LGM ocean surface condition. That is, the improvements in the modeling community were still needed to describe the SST in order to better understand climate during the LGM.

5) Wang, T., H. J. Wang, O. H. Otterå, Y. Q. Gao, L. L. Suo, T. Furevik, and L. Yu, 2013: Anthropogenic agent implicated as a prime driver of shift in precipitation in eastern China in the late 1970s. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 12433-12450. 摘要

Observation shows that eastern China experienced an interdecadal shift in the summer precipitation during the second half of the 20th century. The summer precipitation increased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley, whereas it decreased in northern China. Here we use a coupled ocean&ndash;atmosphere general circulation model and multi-ensemble simulations to show that the interdecadal shift is mainly caused by the anthropogenic forcing. The rapidly increasing greenhouse gases induce a notable Indian Ocean warming, causing a westward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and a southward displacement of the East Asia westerly jet (EAJ) on an interdecadal timescale, leading to more precipitation in Yangtze River valley. At the same time the surface cooling effects from the stronger convection, higher precipitation and rapidly increasing anthropogenic aerosols contribute to a reduced summer land&ndash;sea thermal contrast. Due to the changes in the WPSH, the EAJ and the land&ndash;sea thermal contrast, the East Asian summer monsoon weakened resulting in drought in northern China. Consequently, an anomalous precipitation pattern started to emerge over eastern China in the late 1970s. According to the model, the natural forcing played an opposite role in regulating the changes in WPSH and EAJ, and postponed the anthropogenically forced climate changes in eastern China. The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature is crucial to the response, and acts as a bridge to link the external forcings and East Asian summer climate together on a decadal and longer timescales. Our results further highlight the dominant roles of anthropogenic forcing agents in shaping interdecadal changes of the East Asian climate during the second half of the 20th century.

6) 王会军,范可, 2013: 东亚季风近几十年来的主要变化特征. 大气科学, 37, 313-318. 摘要

    本文简要综述了关于东亚夏季风和冬季风近几十年来的主要变化特征的若干研究结果,特别是关于其年代际变化方面。夏季风及夏季气候的主要变化特征有:1970年代末之后东亚夏季风的年代际时间尺度的减弱以及相应的我国夏季降水江淮流域增多而华北减少、1992年之后我国华南夏季降水增多、1999年之后我国长江中下游夏季降水减少而淮河流域夏季降水增多、东亚夏季风和ENSO之间的年际变化相关性存在不稳定性。而关于东亚冬季风与冬季气候的主要变化特征有:1980年代中期之后东亚冬季风及其年际变率减弱、1970年代中期之后冬季风和ENSO的年际变化相关性较弱、近年来的北极秋季海冰减少对北半球冬季积雪增多有显著贡献、东北冬季积雪在1980年代中期以后增多。与上述变化有关的极端气候和物候都发生了多方面的变化。</div>

7) Wang, H. J., and S. P. He, 2013: The increase of snowfall in Northeast China after the mid 1980s, Chinese Science Bulletin. doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5508-1, , . 摘要

     本文研究了1951-2010年期间我国东北冬季降雪的长期变化. 结果显示, 相对于1951-1985年, 1986-2010年间的降雪大约增加了20%. 进一步分析表明降雪的增加可能与东亚冬季风的减弱密切相关. 同时, 本研究还探讨了其中的有关物理机制. 东亚冬季风的减弱导致来自北方的冷空气减弱, 东北亚沿海海温偏暖; 使得从海洋蒸发到大气的水汽增多, 于是输送到东北的水汽也相应增多. 此外, 由于东亚冬季风的减弱, 从东北南部、东部以及西部输入的水汽都增多, 从而大气中的水汽含量增加, 降雪随之增强. 从大气环流环流的角度分析表明, 东亚冬季风的减弱使得低层辐合、高层辐散加强, 有利于垂直运动的加强, 为降雪增多提供了相应的动力条件

8) YANYAN HUANG, HUIJUN WANG, PING ZHAO, 2013: Is the Interannual Variability of the Summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation Predictable?. Journal of Climate, 26, 3865-3876. 摘要

    The summer (June-July-August) Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) measures the interannual variability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the Asian-North Pacific sector. In this study, we assess the predictability of the summer APO index interannual variability and the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies using the 1959-2001 hindcast data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Centre National de Recherches M&eacute;t&eacute;orologiques (CNRM), and the Met Office (UKMO) general circulation models from the Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction project. The results show that these models predict well the summer APO index interannual variability and have higher skill for the North Pacific upper-tropospheric temperature than for the Asian upper-tropospheric temperature. Meanwhile, the observed APO-related atmospheric circulation anomalies in the South Asian high, the tropical easterly wind jet over the Asian monsoon region in the upper troposphere, the subtropical anticyclone over the North Pacific and the summer southwest monsoon over Asia in the lower troposphere are reasonably well predicted in their spatial patterns and intensities. Compared with the observations, however, these models display low skill in predicting the long-term varying trends of the upper-tropospheric temperature over the Asian-North Pacific sector or the APO index during 1959-2001.

9) Wang, T., H. J. Wang, O. H. Otterå, Y. Q. Gao, L. L. Suo, T. Furevik, and L. Yu, 2013: Anthropogenic agent implicated as a prime driver of shift in precipitation in eastern China in the late 1970s. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 12433-12450. 摘要

    Observation shows that eastern China experienced an interdecadal shift in the summer precipitation during the second half of the 20th century. The summer precipitation increased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley, whereas it decreased in northern China. Here we use a coupled ocean&ndash;atmosphere general circulation model and multi-ensemble simulations to show that the interdecadal shift is mainly caused by the anthropogenic forcing. The rapidly increasing greenhouse gases induce a notable Indian Ocean warming, causing a westward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and a southward displacement of the East Asia westerly jet (EAJ) on an interdecadal timescale, leading to more precipitation in Yangtze River valley. At the same time the surface cooling effects from the stronger convection, higher precipitation and rapidly increasing anthropogenic aerosols contribute to a reduced summer land&ndash;sea thermal contrast. Due to the changes in the WPSH, the EAJ and the land&ndash;sea thermal contrast, the East Asian summer monsoon weakened resulting in drought in northern China. Consequently, an anomalous precipitation pattern started to emerge over eastern China in the late 1970s. According to the model, the natural forcing played an opposite role in regulating the changes in WPSH and EAJ, and postponed the anthropogenically forced climate changes in eastern China. The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature is crucial to the response, and acts as a bridge to link the external forcings and East Asian summer climate together on a decadal and longer timescales. Our results further highlight the dominant roles of anthropogenic forcing agents in shaping interdecadal changes of the East Asian climate during the second half of the 20th century

10) Wang, T., and H.J. Wang, 2013: Mid-Holocene Asian summer climate and its responses to cold ocean surface simulated in the PMIP2 OAGCMs experiments . Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 4117-4128. 摘要

     In this study, we investigated changes in Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea surface temperature simulated by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) muitlmodels and reconstructed by the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) project, focusing on the model-data comparison. The results showed that the PMIP models produced greater ocean cooling in the North Pacific and Tropical Ocean than that in the MARGO, particularly in the Northwestern Pacific, where the model-data mismatch was larger. All the models failed to capture the anomalous east-west SST gradient in the North Atlantic. In addition, large discrepancies among the models could be observed in the mid-latitude ocean, particularly for the models in the second phase of the PMIP. Although they gave some better agreement with the MARGO, the latest models in the third phase of the PMIP could not show substantial progresses in simulating the LGM ocean surface condition. That is, the improvements in the modeling community were still needed to describe the SST in order to better understand climate during the LGM.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

11) Sui, Y., D. Jiang, and Z. Tian, 2013: Latest update of the climatology and changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation over China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 113, 599-610. 摘要


12) Lang, X., and Y. Sui, 2013: Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2°C global warming. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(12), 1453-1461. 摘要


13) Baoqiang Tian, Ke Fan, 2013: Factors favorable to frequent extreme precipitation in the upper Yangtze River Valley. Meteorol Atmos Phys, doi: 10.1007/s00703-013-0261-9, . 摘要 PDF


14) Fan K, Tian B Q, 2013: Prediction of wintertime snow activity in Northeast China. Chin Sci Bull, 58, doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5502-7. 摘要


15) Tian, Z., and D. Jiang, 2013: Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia. Climate of the Past, 9, 2153-2171, doi:10.5194/cp-9-2153-2013. 摘要 PDF

Mid-Holocene ocean and vegetation feedbacks over East Asia are investigated by a set of numerical experiments performed with the version 4 of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). With reference to the pre-industrial period, most of the mid-Holocene annual and seasonal surface surface-air temperature and precipitation changes are found to result from a direct response of the atmosphere to insolation forcing, while dynamic ocean and vegetation modulate regional climate of East Asia to some extent. Because of its thermal inertia, the dynamic ocean induced an additional warming of 0.2 K for the annual mean, 0.5 K in winter (December-February), 0.0003 K in summer (June-August), and 1.0 K in autumn (September-November), but a cooling of 0.6 K in spring (March-May) averaged over China, and it counteracted (amplified) the direct effect of insolation forcing for the annual mean and in winter and autumn (spring) for that period. The dynamic vegetation had an area-average impact of no more than 0.4 K on the mid-Holocene annual and seasonal temperatures over China, with an average cooling of 0.2 K for the annual mean. On the other hand, ocean feedback induced a small increase of precipitation in winter (0.04 mm/day) and autumn (0.05 mm/day), but a reduction for the annual mean (0.14 mm/day) and in spring (0.29 mm/day) and summer (0.34 mm/day) over China, while it also suppressed the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. The effect of dynamic vegetation on the mid-Holocene annual and seasonal precipitation was comparatively small, ranging from -0.03 mm/day to 0.06 mm/day averaged over China. In comparison, the CCSM4 simulated annual and winter cooling over China agrees with simulations within the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), but the results are contrary to the warming reconstructed from multiple proxy data for the mid-Holocene. Ocean feedback narrows this model-data mismatch, whereas vegetation feedback plays an opposite role but with a level of uncertainty.

16) Jiang, D., Z. Tian, and X. Lang, 2013: Mid-Holocene net precipitation changes over China: Model-data comparison. Quaternary Science Reviews, 82, 102-120. 摘要 PDF

Many efforts have been made to reconstruct the moisture conditions over China during the mid-Holocene, approximately 6000 calendar years ago. However, most of them have been performed at the single site level or local scale, and the nationwide distribution of the mid-Holocene precipitation and net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation) changes from both proxy data and simulations remains unclear. Here we first selected 36 out of 51 climate models participating in the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for their demonstrable ability to simulate the baseline climate and for the availability of evaporation data. Our analysis of the ensemble mean results of the 36 models shows that the mid-Holocene annual precipitation, evaporation, and net precipitation were 3.0%, 0.9%, and 6.9% more than the baseline period, respectively, and seasonally all three variables decreased in boreal winter and spring but increased in boreal summer and autumn on the national scale. For that period, both the pattern and magnitude of the above changes differed between the models and the sub-regions, and the interactive ocean effect had little impact overall on the country. Compared with the wetter-than-present climates derived from the records at 64 out of 69 sites across China, the models agreed qualitatively with the multi-proxy data in most parts of China, except Xinjiang and the areas between the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow River valleys, where drier-than-baseline climates were obtained from the 36 models.

17) Jiang, D., and Z. Tian, 2013: East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century: Results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58, 1427-1435. 摘要 PDF

Forty-two climate models participating in the coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 5 were first evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the present climatology of the East Asian winter (December-February) and summer (June-August) monsoons. The East Asian winter and summer monsoon changes over the 21st century were then projected using the results of 31 and 29 reliable climate models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) mid-range A1B scenario or the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) mid-low-range RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. Results showed that the East Asian winter monsoon changes little over time as a whole relative to the reference period 1980-1999. Regionally, it weakens (strengthens) north (south) of about 25N in East Asia, which results from atmospheric circulation changes over the western North Pacific and Northeast Asia owing to the weakening and northward shift of the Aleutian Low, and from decreased north-west-southeast thermal and sea level pressure differences across Northeast Asia. In summer, monsoon strengthens slightly in East China over the 21st century as a consequence of an increased land-sea thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and the adjacent western North Pacific and South China Sea.

18) 田芝平,姜大膀, 2013: 不同分辨率CCSM4对东亚和中国气候模拟能力分析. 大气科学, 37, 171-186, doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12050. 摘要 PDF

本文利用通用气候系统模式CCSM4在三种水平分辨率下的工业化革命前期气候模拟试验,结合观测和再分析资料,比较了各分辨率下模式对中国温度和降水、东亚海平面气压和850hPa风场的模拟能力,综合评价了模式分辨率对东亚和中国气候模拟的影响。结果表明,三种分辨率对中国温度均具有很好的模拟能力,除春季外,低分辨率(T31,约3.75度X3.75度)对全年温度的模拟能力均要稍好于中(f19,约1.9度X2.5度)、高(f09,约0.9度X1.25度)分辨率;各分辨率对中国降水的模拟能力远不如温度,除冬季外全年都出现的中部地区虚假降水并未因为模式分辨率提高而得到本质改善;对于东亚海平面气压场,低分辨率在冬季模拟能力相对最好,中等分辨率在夏季相对较好,而高分辨率的模拟能力均表现最差;低分辨率对850hPa东亚冬季风和夏季风的模拟能力均要好于中、高分辨率,而两种较高分辨率的模拟能力则比较接近。总的来说,低分辨率CCSM4在东亚和中国气候模拟中表现出了较大优势,加之其计算代价小,适合进行需要较长时间积分的气候模拟研究。

19) Jiang, D., X. Lang, Z. Tian, and L. Ju, 2013: Mid-Holocene East Asian summer monsoon strengthening: Insights from Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 369, 422-429. 摘要 PDF

The East Asian summer (June-July-August) monsoon (EASM) is typically thought to have been stronger during interglacial periods based on spatially sparse proxy data. On a large scale, however,whether this viewis true and if so, its underlying dynamic mechanisms remain unclear. Using all pertinent experiments within the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), here we present an analysis of the EASM during the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago. Supporting the paleodata, the mid-Holocene EASM, as measured by regionally averaged meridional wind at 850 hPa, became stronger than the baseline period in 27 out of 28 PMIP models with a demonstrable ability to simulate the modern EASM climatology. On average, the EASM strengthened by 32% across all themodels and by a largermagnitude in 23 coupledmodels (35%) than in five atmosphericmodels (20%). It is proposed that an enhanced land-sea thermal contrast, and hence sea level pressure gradient, between the East Asian continent and adjacent oceans as a result of orbital forcingwas responsible for the EASM strengthening during the mid-Holocene.

20) Sui Y., D. Jiang, and Z. Tian, 2013: Latest update of the climatology and changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation over China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 113, 599-610. 摘要 PDF

Based on daily precipitation data from 524 meteorological stations in China during the period 1960-2009, the climatology and the temporal changes (trends, interannual, and decadal variations) in the proportion of seasonal precipitation to the total annual precipitation were analyzed on both national and regional scales. Results indicated that (1) for the whole country, the climatology in the seasonal distribution of precipitation showed that the proportion accounted for 55% in summer (June-August), for around 20% in both spring (March-May) and autumn (September-November), and around 5% in winter (December-February). But the spatial features were region-dependent. The primary precipitation regime, 'summer-autumn-spring-winter', was located in central and eastern regions which were north of the Huaihe River, in eastern Tibet, and in western Southwest China. The secondary regime, 'summer-spring-autumn-winter', appeared in the regions south of the Huaihe River, except Jiangnan where spring precipitation dominated, and the south eastern Hainan Island where autumn precipitation prevailed. (2) For the temporal changes on the national scale, first, where the trends were concerned, the proportion of winter precipitation showed a significantly increasing trend, while that of the other three seasons did not show any significant trends. Second, for the interannual variation, the variability in summer was the largest among the four seasons and that in winter was the smallest. Then, on the decadal scale, China experienced a sharp decrease only in the proportion of summer precipitation in 2000. (3) For the temporal changes on the regional scale, all the concerned 11 geographic regions of China underwent increasing trends in the proportion of winter precipitation. For spring, it decreased over the regions south of the Yellow River but increased elsewhere. The trend in the proportion of summer precipitation was generally opposite to that of spring. For autumn, it decreased over the other ten regions except Inner Mongolia with no trend. It is noted that the interannual variability of precipitation seasonality is large over North China, Huanghuai, and Jianghuai; its decadal variability is large over the other regions, especially over those regions south of the Yangtze River.

21) 张冉,姜大膀,田芝平, 2013: 中上新世是否存在“永久厄尔尼诺”状态——一个耦合模式结果. 第四纪研究, 33, 1130-1137. 摘要 PDF

根据中上新世模拟比较计划(PlioMIP)试验设计方案, 利用通用气候系统模式(CCSM4) 低分辨率版本就该时期是否存在‘永久厄尔尼诺’状态给予了数值模拟研究。结果表明, 相对于工业革命前期,中上新世海洋表面温度(SST)在赤道太平洋地区东部比西部增温显著,导致赤道太平洋地区东西方向上的SST梯度减弱;然而,模拟的中上新世热带太平洋SST仍然以厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)循环为主, 且ENSO循环并未减弱, 换言之, 试验结果不支持中上新世存在‘永久厄尔尼诺’状态。

22) Yu Entao, Wang Huijun, Sun Jianqi and Gao Yongqi, 2013: Climatic response to changes in vegetation in the Northwest Hetao Plain as simulated by the WRF model. 33, 33, International Journal of Climatology. 摘要 PDF


23) Yu Entao, 2013: High-resolution seasonal snowfall simulation over Northeast China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58, 1412-1419. 摘要 PDF


24) Zhu, Y. L., 2013: Interdecadal variations of the winter temperature in East China during past hundred years and the related atmospheric circulation. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 6, 290‒294. 摘要 PDF

The winter temperature changes in East China during past hundred years are investigated using the 20th century-version 2 (20th-v2) reanalysis. Four typical warm (P1--1911-1930; P4--1991-2010) and cold (P2--1938-1957; P3--1961-1980) periods are identified for the East China winter temperature index Comparison with the 160-station observational data, NCAR sea level pressure, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis show that the 20th-v2 reanalysis can depict the major features of the warming from P3 to P4, which is part of the global warming phenomenon. The cooling from P1 to P2 is a regional phenomenon under global cooling. However, both changes are consistent with the phase change of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), while the second change is also accompanied by the phase change of Antarctic Oscillation from negative to positive. Original sources of the interdecadal shifts of the Arctic Oscillation and winter temperature in East China still needs further research.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100615586.pdf



25) Chen, H.P., J.Q. Sun, and X.L. Chen, 2013: Future Changes of Drought and Flood Events in China under a Global Warming Scenario. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 6(1), 8-13. 摘要

This study investigates the impact of global warming on drought/flood patterns in China at the end of the 21st century based on the simulations of 22 global climate models and a regional climate model (RegCM3) under the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), which has well performance in monitoring the drought/flood characteristics (in terms of their intensity, duration, and spatial extent) in China, is used in this study. The projected results of 22 coupled models and the RegCM3 simulation are consistent. These models project a decrease in the frequency of droughts in most parts of northern China and a slight increase in the frequency in some parts of southern China. Considering China as a whole, the spatial extents of droughts are projected to be significantly reduced. In contrast, future flood events over most parts of China are projected to occur more frequently with stronger intensity and longer duration than those prevalent currently. Additionally, the spatial extents of flood events are projected to significantly increase.

26) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2013: How Large Precipitation Changes over Global Monsoon Regions by CMIP5 Models?. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 6(5), 306-311. 摘要

Future changes in precipitation over global monsoon domains and their adjacent dry regions are investigated using present-day climate simulations (1986&ndash;2005) and future climate simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5) scenario by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)<br /> models. In the present-day climate simulations, high reproducibility of the extents of global monsoon domains and dry regions is observed from the multi-model ensemble<br /> (MME) result; the associated local summer precipitation variation and its interannual variability are also successfully reproduced. In the future, the global monsoon domains are projected to be expanded, while the dry regions are expected to initially increase and then decrease. The summer precipitation and its variability show significant increases over most global monsoon domains and obvious decreases over their adjacent dry regions. These results indicate that currently wet regions will become<br /> wetter and dry areas will be dryer under global warming conditions. Further analysis indicates that changes in summer precipitation over global monsoon and dry regions<br /> can be interpreted as moisture convergence changes associated with changes in horizontal moisture transport.

27) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2013: Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation under RCP scenario. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 121, 55-77. 摘要

Future changes in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation climatology, frequency, and intensity are analyzed using historical climate simulations and future climate simulations under the RCP4.5 scenario using the World Climate Research Programme&rsquo;s (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) multi-model<br /> dataset. The model reproducibility is evaluated, and well performance in the present-day climate simulation can be obtained by most of the studied models. However, underestimation is obvious over the East Asian region for precipitation<br /> climatology and precipitation intensity, and overestimation is observed for precipitation frequency. The overestimation of precipitation frequency is mainly due to the large positive bias of the light precipitation (precipitation &lt; 10 mm/day) days, and the underestimation of precipitation intensity is mainly caused by the negative bias<br /> of the intense precipitation (precipitation &gt; 10 mm/day) intensity. For the future climate simulations, simple multimodel ensemble (MME) averages using all of the models<br /> show increases in precipitation and its intensity over almost all of East Asia, while the precipitation frequency is projected to decrease over eastern China and around Japan and increase in other regions. When the weighted MME is considered, no large difference can be observed compared with the simple MME. For the MME using the six best models that have good performance in simulating the present-day climate, the future climate changes over East Asia are very similar to those predicted using all of the models. Further analysis shows that the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation events are also projected to significantly increase over East Asia. Increases in precipitation frequency and intensity are the main contributors to increases in precipitation, and the contribution of frequency increases (contributed by 40.8 % in the near future and by 58.9 % by the end of the twenty-first century) is<br /> much larger than that of intensity increases (contributed by 29.9 % in the near future and by 30.1 % by the end of the twenty-first century). This finding also implies an increased risk of intense precipitation events over the East Asian region under global warming scenario. These results regarding future climate simulations show much greater reliability than those using CMIP3 simulations.

28) Chen, H.P., 2013: Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(12), 1462-1472. 摘要

Projection of future climate changes and their regional impact is critical for long-term planning at the national and regional levels aimed at adaptation and mitigation. This study assesses the future changes in precipitation in China and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns using the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 Phase (CMIP5) simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results consistently indicate that the annual precipitation in China is projected to significantly increase at the end of the 21st century compared to the present-day levels. The number of days and the intensity of medium rain, large rain and heavy rain are obviously increased, while the number of trace rain days is projected to decrease over the entire area of China. Further analysis indicates that the significant increase of annual precipitation in Northwest China is primarily due to the increase of light rain and the increases in North and Northeast China are primarily due to the increase of medium rain. In the region of southern China, the increases of large rain and heavy rain play an important role in the increase of annual precipitation, while light rain events play a negative role. Analysis of the changes in atmospheric circulation indicates that the East Asian summer monsoon circulation is projected to be considerably stronger, and the local atmospheric stratification is projected to be more unstable, all of which provide a background benefit for the increase of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in China under global warmingscenarios.

29) Li Fei and Huijun Wang, 2013: Relationship between Bering Sea Ice Cover and East Asian Winter Monsoon Year-to-Year Variations. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 30(1), 48–56. 摘要


30) Li Fei and Huijun Wang, 2013: Spring surface cooling trend along the East Asian coast after the late 1990s. Chin. Sci. Bull., 58(27), 2840–2844. 摘要


31) He Shengping, 2013: Reduction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Interannual Variability after the mid-1980s and Possible Cause. Chinese Science Bulletin, 8(12), 1331-1338. 摘要 PDF


32) Wang Huijun, Shengping He, 2013: The increase of snowfall in Northeast China after the mid 1980s. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(27), 1350-1354. 摘要 PDF


33) He Shengping, Huijun Wang, Jiping Liu, 2013: Changes in the Relationship between ENSO and Asia-Pacific Mid-latitude Winter Atmospheric Circulation. Journal of Climate, 26, 3377-3393. 摘要 PDF


34) Wang Huijun, Shengping He, Jiping Liu, 2013: Present and Future Relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO: Results of CMIP5. Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 1-16. 摘要 PDF


35) He Shengping, Huijun Wang, 2013: Oscillating relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO. Journal of Climate, 26, 9819-9838. 摘要 PDF


36) He Shengping, Huijun Wang, 2013: Impact of the November/December Arctic Oscillation on the following January temperature in East Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 12981-12998. 摘要 PDF


37) 王树舟,于恩涛, 2013: 基于MIROC/WRF嵌套模式的中国气候变化预估. 气候与环境研究, , . 摘要


38) Yu Entao, Sun Jianqi and Xiang Weiling, 2013: High-Resolution Hindcast of Record-Breaking Rainfall in Beijing and Impact of Topography. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 6, . 摘要



39) Yanyan Huang, Huijun Wang and Ping Zhao, 2013: Is the Interannual Variability of the Summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation Predictable?. Journal of Climate, 26, 3865–3876. 摘要

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40) Sheng Chen, Yang Hong, Qing Cao, Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstetter, Jonathan J. Gourley, Youcun Qi, Jian Zhang, Ken Howard, Junjun Hu, Jun Wang, 2013: Performance evaluation of radar and satellite rainfalls for Typhoon Morakot over Taiwan: Are remote-sensing products ready for gauge denial scenario of extreme events?. Journal of Hydrology, 506, 4-13. 摘要 PDF


<br /> <div> <table style="font-family: STHeiti;" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr> <td class="abstract" style="font-size: 14px; word-wrap: break-word; padding-left: 10px;"> <div id="abstc_951">This study evaluated rainfall estimates from ground radar network and four satellite algorithms with a relatively dense rain gauge network over Taiwan Island for the 2009 extreme Typhoon Morakot at various spatiotemporal scales (from 0.04&deg; to 0.25&deg; and hourly to event total accumulation). The results show that all the remote-sensing products underestimate the rainfall as compared to the rain gauge measurements, in an order of radar (&minus;18%), 3B42RT (&minus;19%), PERSIANN-CCS (28%), 3B42V6 (&minus;36%), and CMORPH (&minus;61%). The ground radar estimates are also most correlated with gauge measurements, having a correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.81 (0.82) at 0.04&deg; (0.25&deg;) spatial resolution. For satellite products, CMORPH has the best spatial correlation (0.70) but largely underestimates the total rainfall accumulation. Compared to microwave ingested algorithms, the IR-dominant algorithms provide a better estimation of the total rainfall accumulation but poorly resolve the temporal evolution of the warm cloud typhoon, especially for a large overestimation at the early storm stage. This study suggests that the best performance comes from the ground radar estimates that could be used as an alternative in case of the gauge denial. However, the current satellite rainfall products still have limitations in terms of resolution and accuracy, especially for this type of extreme typhoon.</div> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <br />

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2015/0204/20150204100643511.pdf

41) 汪君, 王会军, 2013: WRF模式对江苏如东地区风速预报的检验分析. 气候与环境研究, 18(2), 145-155. 摘要

<br /> <div> <table style="font-family: STHeiti;" width="100%"> <tbody> <tr> <td class="abstract" style="font-size: 14px; word-wrap: break-word; padding-left: 10px;"> <div id="abstc_882">探讨了WRF模式在风电场的风速或者功率预报中应用的可行性, 主要研究和评估了WRF模式对地处东亚季风区及海陆交界的江苏如东地区夏季和冬季风速的短期预报效能。研究发现WRF模式可以比较好地预报如东站冬季的风速, 24 h预报的风速时间序列和观测资料的相关系数可以达到0.61, 通过置信度99%的检验, 48 h和72 h的预报与观测风速相关系数分别为0.54和0.47, 也能通过置信度99%的检验;相对而言, 模式对夏季风速的预报则要差一些, 24 h的相关系数有0.59, 48 h和72 h的相关系数只有0.47和0.30, 但仍能通过置信度99%的检验。在量值上, 模式预报的风速比观测值都略偏大一些。而江苏南通市预报结果显示, 模式的预报效能要比如东稍高一些, 和如东类似, 模式对该地冬季的预报要好于对夏季风速的预报。从更大尺度范围的分析也表明, 模式对不同地区预报的准确度是不一样的, 对海面以及海陆交界的海岸预报精度要高一些, 在平坦的内陆地区预报也比较好, 但在山区预报效能则较差。总体说来, WRF能胜任风速短期预报, 值得进一步研究和应用。<br /> <br /> 链接http://www.dqkxqk.ac.cn/qhhj/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20130201&amp;flag=1 <p>引用:汪君,王会军.2013.WRF模式对江苏如东地区风速预报的检验分析[J].气候与环境研究,18(2):145-155,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2013.11152.</p> Citation:WANG Jun and WANG Huijun.2013.Forecasting of Wind Speed in Rudong, Jiangsu Province, by the WRF Model[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),18(2):145-155,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2013.11152.</div> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <br />

42) 宗培书,汤剑平,潘益农,许春燕, 2013: 江苏东台地区风速风能特征分析及高精度模拟. 南京大学学报(自然科学), 49(3), 300-310. 摘要 PDF


43) Dong Chen,Huijun Wang, Guoping Li, 2013: Change in spring meridional circulation and its relation to summer typhoon activities. atmospheric and oceanic science letters, vol. 6 No.3, 144-148. 摘要


44) Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, 2013: Simulation of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground conditions on the Tibetan Plateau, 1981-2010. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118, 5216–5230. 摘要 PDF


45) 孙博,王会军, 2013: Water Vapor Transport Paths and Accumulation during Widespread Snowfall Events in Northeastern China. Journal of Climate, 26, 4550–4566. 摘要


46) 孙博,王会军, 2013: Larger variability, better predictability?. Int. J. Climatol., 33, 2341–2351. 摘要


47) Li, S., and F. Luo, 2013: Lead-lag connection of AMO with East Asia surface air temperatures in instrumental records. Atmos. Ocn. Sci. Lett., 6(3), 138-143. 摘要


2012

1) Wang, T., O.H. Otterå, Y.Q. Gao, and H.J. Wang, 2012: The response of the North Pacific Decadal Variability to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Climate Dynamics, 39, 2917-2936. 摘要

In this study, the effects of volcanic forcing on North Pacific climate variability, on interannual to decadal time scales, are examined using climate model simulations covering the last 600 years. The model used is the Bergen Climate Model, a fully coupled atmosphere&ndash;ocean general circulation model. It is found that natural external forcings, such as tropical strong volcanic eruptions (SVEs) and variations in total solar irradiance, play an important role in regulating North Pacific Decadal Variability (NPDV). In response to tropical SVEs the lower stratospheric pole&ndash;to&ndash;equator temperature gradient is enhanced. The North polar vortex is strengthened, which forces a significant positive Arctic Oscillation (AO). At the same time, dipole zonal wind anomalies associated with strong polar vortex propagate downward from the lower stratosphere. Through positive feedbacks in the troposphere, the surface westerly winds across the central North Pacific are significantly weakened, and positive sea level pressure anomalies are formed in the North Pacific. This anomalous surface circulation results in changes in the net heat fluxes and the oceanic advection across the North Pacific. As a result of this, warm water converges in the subtropical western North Pacific, where the surface waters in addition are heated by significantly reduced latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean. In the eastern and high&ndash;latitude North Pacific the ocean loses more heat, and large&ndash;scale decreases in sea surface temperatures are found. The overall response of this chain of events is that the North Pacific enters a negative phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and this negative phase of the PDO is maintained for several years. It is thus concluded that the volcanic forcing plays a key role in the phasing of the PDO. The model results furthermore highlight the important role of troposphere&ndash;stratosphere coupling, tropical&ndash;extratropical teleconnections and extratropical ocean&ndash;atmosphere interactions for describing NPDV.

2) Zeng, X., Z. Wang, and A. Wang, 2012: Surface skin temperature and the interplay between sensible and ground heat fluxes over arid regions. J. Hydrometeor, 13, 1359-1370. 摘要



3) Jiang, D., X. Lang, Z. Tian, and T. Wang, 2012: Considerable model–data mismatch in temperature over China during the mid-Holocene: Results of PMIP simulations. Journal of Climate, 25, 4135–4153. 摘要

Using the experiments undertaken by 36 climate models participating in the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), this study examines annual and seasonal surface temperatures over China during the mid-Holocene. Compared to the present or preindustrial climate, 35 out of the 36 PMIP models<br /> reproduced colder-than-baseline annual temperature, with an average cooling of 0.4 K, during that period. Seasonal temperature change followed closely the change in incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere over China during the mid-Holocene. Temperature was reduced (elevated) in boreal winter and spring (summer) in all of the PMIP models, with an average of 1.4 K (1.0 K) at the national scale. Colder (warmer)-than-baseline temperatures were derived from 14 of the 16 atmosphere-only (18 of the 20 coupled) models during the mid-Holocene boreal autumn. Interactive ocean was found to lead to a warming effect on annual (0.3 K), boreal winter (0.5 K), and boreal autumn (0.7 K) temperatures, with reference to the atmosphere-only models. Interactive vegetation had little impact in terms of six pairs of coupled models with and without vegetation effects. The above results are in stark contrast to warmer-than-present annual and winter climate conditions as derived from multiproxy data for the mid-Holocene. Coupled models generally perform better than atmosphere-only models.

4) Zeng, X. and A. Wang, 2012: What is monthly mean land surface air temperature?. EOS, Vol, 93, No.15. 摘要


5) Liu Jiping, Judith A. Curry, Wang Huijun , Mirong Song, and Radley M. Horton, 2012: Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci, DOI:10.1073/, pnas.1114910109, . 摘要

    While the Arctic region has been warming strongly in recent decades,anomalously large snowfall in recent winters has affected large parts of North America, Europe, and east Asia. Here we demonstrate that the decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation that have some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation. This circulation change results in more frequent episodes of blocking patterns that lead to increased cold surges over large parts of northern continents. Moreover, the increase in atmospheric water vapor content in the Arctic region during late autumn and winter driven locally by the reduction of sea ice provides enhanced moisture sources, supporting increased heavy snowfall in Europe during early winter and the northeastern and midwestern United States during winter. We conclude that the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters.</div>

6) Zhang,Z.S., F. Flatoy, H.J. Wang, I. Bethke, M. Bentsen, Z.T. Guo, 2012: Early Eocene Asian climate dominated by desert and steppe with limited monsoons. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 44, 24-35. 摘要

    古气候重建显示,古近纪(大约35-60百万年之前)亚洲的气候格局是一种带状格局。一条宽广的带状干旱带/半干旱带控制着我国大部分地区。然而,以前的研究并没有揭示这条带状干旱带/半干旱带的形成机制。在这篇新的文章中,我们用全球大气模式,在更好的古地理重建条件下,模拟了早始新世50百万年前亚洲气候;并考虑古气候对轨道参数,地形,植被和海温及大气CO2浓度的敏感性。我们模拟显示,一条年降水量小于800mm的带状干旱/半干旱带纬向分布在古北纬20至40度之间。根据柯本气候分类,这条干旱带属于沙漠(BWh)和草原(BSh)气候。类似于地中海气候出现在我国西北内陆及中亚。这一模拟结果与已有的古气候格局重建相一致。模拟表明,这一宽广的带状干旱带形成的主要原因是受到50百万年前副热带高压的控制。由于50百万年前,全球温度大约比现代高出12摄氏度,副热带的分布范围比现代更加靠北;当时的高温使得干旱带的分布范围变宽,其北界可以达到古北纬40度附近。敏感性试验表明,地球轨道参数的变化,是最有可能在当时放大海陆热力差异并加强季风环流的因素;季风气候可以 在早始新世短暂出现,但对于整个早始新世气候来说,并不起主导作用。<br /> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 这一研究,使得我们对古近纪亚洲古气候的理解更加完善。过去我们一般认为,在带状气候格局下,季风气候是不可能存在的。但这个研究证明,在带状气候格局下,季风气候可以短暂出现,虽然它并不起主导作用。</div>

7) Wang H. J., Jian-Qi Sun, Huo-Po Chen, Ya-Li Zhu, Ying Zhang, Da-Bang Jiang, Xian-Mei Lang, Ke Fan, En-Tao Yu, and Song Yang, 2012: Extreme Climate in China: Facts, Simulation and Projection. Meteorologische Zeitschrift,, DOI 10.1127/0941-2948/2012/0330, . 摘要

    In this paper, studies on extreme climate in China including extreme temperature and precipitation, dust weather activity, tropical cyclone activity, intense snowfall and cold surge activity, floods, and droughts are reviewed based on the peer-reviewed publications in recent decades. The review is focused first on he climatological features, variability, and trends in the past half century and then on simulations and projections based on global and regional climate models. As the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increased throughout China, heat wave intensity and frequency overall increased in the past half century, with a large rate after the 1980s. The daily or yearly minimum SAT increased more significantly than the mean or maximum SAT. The long-term change in precipitation is predominantly characterized by the so-called southern flood and northern drought pattern in eastern China and by the overall increase over Northwest China. The interdecadal variation of monsoon, represented by the monsoon weakening in the end of 1970s, is largely responsible for this change in mean precipitation. Precipitation-related extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall and intense snowfall) have become more frequent and intense generally over China in the recent years, with large spatial features. Dust weather activity, however, has become less frequent over northern China in the recent years, as result of weakened cold surge activity, reinforced precipitation, and improved vegetation condition. State-of-the-art climate models are capable of reproducing some features of the mean climate and extreme climate events. However, discrepancies among models in simulating and projecting the mean and extreme climate are also demonstrated by many recent studies. Regional models with higher resolutions often perform better than global models. To predict and project climate variations and extremes, many new approaches and schemes based on dynamical models, statistical methods, or their combinations have been developed, resulting in improved skills. With the improvements of climate model capability and resolution as well as our understanding of regional climate variability and extremes, these new approaches and techniques are expected to further improve the prediction and projection on regional climate variability and extremes over China in the future.</div>

8) Yan, Q., Zhang, Z. S., Wang, H. J., Gao, Y. Q., and Zheng, W. P., 2012: Set-up and preliminary_ results of Middle Pliocene climate simulations with CAM3.1. Geosci. Model Dev, 5, 289-297. 摘要

     上新世中期,大约3.264~3.025百万年前,气候与是未来全球变暖背景下的气候非常类似。因此,我们采用CAM3.1大气模式,利用PRISM3D边界场,对这一时期展开了模拟研究。模拟结果表明上新世中期全球气温比工业革命前大约高2.0摄氏度。这种增温在两极地区非常显著,而在低纬度地区却很小,从而造成全球气温南北梯度的减小。同时,上新世中期全球平均降水增加了3.6%,降水的变化在热带地区最为显著。</div>

9) Wang, T., O.H. Otterå, Y.Q. Gao, and H.J. Wang, 2012: The response of the North Pacific Decadal Variability to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1373-5, . 摘要

     通过对过去600年数值模拟的研究发现,热带强烈火山喷发和太阳辐射变化等自然外强迫对北太平洋年代际振荡起着非常重要的调制作用。其中,热带强烈火山喷发会引起赤道&mdash;极地平流层底部温度梯度增加,进而导致极涡显著增强,北极出现显著正AO模态。同时,由此产生的环流异常通过对流层反馈作用下传,进一步引起北太平洋近地层环流变化,北太平洋海平面气压显著升高;另一方面,表层环流异常导致北太平洋表层热通量和洋流变化,大量暖水在副热带西北太平洋堆积并被异常的潜热感热通量加热,而东北太平洋和高纬度北太平洋在暖洋流减弱和表层热通量冷却的共同作用下SST显著降低。通过一系列的作用之后,北太平洋进入PDO的负位相,并维持几年时间。同时,这一模式结果揭示了对流层&mdash;平流层耦合、热带&mdash;热带外遥相关和中高纬度海气相互作用对描述北太平洋年代际振荡的重要作用。</div>

10) 贺圣平,王会军, 2012: 东亚冬季风综合指数及其表达的东亚冬季风年际变化特征. 大气科学, 36(3), 523-538. 摘要

    本文通过多变量经验正交函数展开(multivariate EOF,简称 MV-EOF)研究了东亚冬季风各系统成员的协同关系,再运用单变量EOF定义单个系统的强度系数。从而给出能够反映东亚冬季风各主要特征及其年际变化、同时包含西伯利亚高压、东亚大槽和纬向风经向切变信息的强度指数(EAWMII)。分析表明,这个新指数EAWMII能够很好地反映东亚冬季风在20世纪80年代中期的减弱信号,并且与大气环流场以及东亚冬季表面温度的变化均显著相关,能够在很大程度上表征东亚冬季风的综合特征。此外,EAWMII与北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation, 简称AO)指数、北太平洋涛动(North Pacific Oscillation, 简称NPO)指数和Ni&ntilde;o3.4指数相关显著。分析还表明AO和NPO影响东亚冬季气候的区域有所不同:AO主要影响欧亚大陆中、高纬、我国东北以及日本北部等地区,NPO则主要影响华南、华东、朝鲜、韩国以及日本中南部及其附近海域。并且,AO很可能可以通过影响NPO进而影响东亚冬季风。</p> </div>

11) Li, F., and H. J. Wang, 2012: Predictability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Interannual Variability as Indicated by the DEMETER CGCMS. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 29(3), 441–454. 摘要

    文章定义了一个新的东亚冬季风强度指数, 以此研究了东亚冬季风年际变化及其伴随的大气环流场及表面温度场特征, 并评估了DEMETER耦合模式模拟这些特征的能力,得到以下结果:(1)基于东亚冬季850hPa层温度场特征,提出了一个能够合理刻画东亚冬季风强度的新指数,多模式集合对该指数的模拟能力优于单个模式。(2)东亚冬季风强度指数在1969-2001年间有明显的年际变化,强(弱)季风年东亚地区东西向海平面气压差加大(减小);850 hPa层盛行西北风距平(西风带环流偏强),500 hPa层和200 hPa层分别对应强(弱)的东亚大槽和强(弱)的西风急流;东亚北部大部分地区温度下降(升高)。同时,自20世纪80年代中后期有显著的年代际减弱,强季风年大气环流场和表面温度场异常偏弱,而弱季风年大气环流和表面温度异常偏强。(3)多模式集合对上述特征具有一定的模拟能力,其模拟的空间分布特征与再分析非常一致,差别主要在于中心强度和位置。比较而言,多模式集合对20世纪80年代中后期弱季风年的模拟相对较差一些,这主要是因为后一个时段弱季风年大气环流场和表面温度场异常较其它3组弱,在一定程度上增加了模式模拟的难度。<br /> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 此外,上述分析还表明,北太平洋区域为研究东亚冬季风强度变化的关键区域,北太平洋表面温度变化对同期东亚冬季风强弱有着显著的影响。我们认为模式对太平洋海温/ENSO较好的可预报性增强了东亚季风区的气候可预测度。</p> </div>

12) Sun, J. Q., and H. J. Wang, 2012: Changes of the connection between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Asian summer rainfall. J. Geophys. Res, 117, D08110, doi:10.1029/2012JD017482. 摘要

    本文主要研究了夏季北大西洋涛动与东亚夏季降水的关系。结果发现,北大西洋涛动模态在20世纪70年代末的年代际突变显著地加强了其对东亚夏季降水的影响,造成东亚中部和北部地区夏季降水南北向偶极异常分布的模态。进一步,作者对于这其中的物理机制作了诊断分析,发现夏季北大西洋涛动模态在年代际突变后,可以改变欧亚大陆上空的纬向遥相关波列,从而造成东亚地区大气环流和水汽条件的异常,最终影响到东亚地区夏季降水的变化

13) Wang, S., E. Yu, and H. Wang, 2012: A simulation study of a heavy rainfall process over the Yangtze River valley using the two-way nesting approach. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 29(4), 731-743. 摘要

    本文用观测资料结合模拟结果分析了2011年6月3日至7日降水过程的背景环流及其可预报性。西南暖湿气流与北方南下冷空气交汇在我国长江中下游地区,造成该地区出现连续强降水过程。6~7日,东北低涡加强,给长江中下游带来更多冷空气,长江中下游切变线南移,雨带也相应南移并减弱。本研究通过两层嵌套模拟的方法,再现了暴雨特征及其局地和大范围背景环流。该试验模拟出了3~7日全国主要降水区域;模拟出了长江中下游地区切变线的演变过程;模拟出了最强的降水区域平均的日降水量的时间演变,尽管模拟的降水略多于观测的降水。</div>

14) Chen, Huopo, Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang, 2012: A Statistical Downscaling Model for Forecasting Summer Rainfall in China from DEMETER Hindcast Datasets. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 608–628. 摘要

    基于DEMETER耦合模式回报资料,本文发展了一种能有效改进耦合模式预测能力的统计降尺度方法,该方法的核心思想为:基于观测资料,利用耦合模式模拟最好的、最稳定的且与降水有一定物理联系的预测因子进行建模,而后对降水进行预测。本文将该方法应用于我国夏季降水的短期气候预测,并利用交叉检验和独立样本检验对该方法的预测性能进行验证。通过对相关系数、距平相关系数(ACC)、均方根误差(RMSE)和方差的比较,结果表明,相比耦合模式直接回报结果,该方法可以显著提高我国夏季降水的预测技巧。各台站相关系数显著增加,降水年际变率增强,RMSE显著减少,而且能够合理地预测我国夏季降水的极端年份。另外,它也能够合理预测我国每年夏季降水的空间分布特征。7个耦合模式1980-2001年平均的ACCs由耦合模式直接回报的0.00~0.11增加到了0.46~0.53, RMSEs相对减少了40.4%~53.6%。多模式集合预测结果明显优于单个模式,多年平均的ACC由0.10增加到了0.71,RMSE相对减少了49.1%。因此,多模式集合的统计降尺度方法在短期气候业务预测领域具有潜在的应用意义。</div>

15) Wang H.J. and S.P. He, 2012: Weakening Relationship between East Asian Winter Monsoon and ENSO after mid-1970s. Chinese Science Bulletin, doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5285-x, . 摘要

    本文基于NCEP、NOAA再分析观测资料分析了东亚冬季风、ENSO及其相关的大气-海洋变率,结果表明自上世纪70年代以后,东亚冬季风与ENSO间的联系明显减弱。70年代以前,两者呈显著的反位相变化;而70年代以后,反位相变化不再显著。深入的分析表明,热带印度洋-西太平洋地区与ENSO有关的变率的减弱可能是上述年际联系减弱的原因。同时,东亚冬季风年际变率的减弱以及与东亚冬季风有关的气候变率北撤也可能导致ENSO与东亚冬季风联系的减弱。</div>

16) Huanlian Li, Huijun Wang, Yizhou Yin, 2012: Interdecadal variation of the West African summer monsoon during 1979–2010 and associated variability. Clim Dyn, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1426-9, . 摘要

    本文指出20世纪70年代末之后至今西非夏季风存在一次年代际增强的变化,并采用统计诊断分析及数值模拟方法对其可能成因进行了探讨。结果表明,在1998年后西非夏季风开始增强、西非西部夏季降水整体上开始增多。在这次年代尺度变化中,西非季风区垂直上升运动偏强,对应高层辐散强,低层辐合强,利于季风局地环流的发展。低层西南风偏强,高层东风偏强,进而使得更多来自大西洋及几内亚湾的水汽被输送到西非大陆。此外,北大西洋副热带高压偏强偏北,热带东风也偏强。统计分析得出春季NAO偏弱,热带东风偏强,进而西非季风偏强,然而从北大西洋SST敏感性数值试验看来,NAO对西非夏季风年代际变化的影响并不明显。从海表面温度变化来看,北太平洋副热带地区、南太平洋和北大西洋SST均有明显增暖趋势,数值模拟试验和资料分析表明,北太平洋SST变化对最近这次的西非夏季风年代际变化起着重要作用。</div>

17) Wang, H. J., and H. P. Chen, 2012: Climate control for southeastern China moisture and precipitation: Indian or East Asian monsoon?. J. Geophys. Res, 117, D12109, doi:10.1029/2012JD017734. 摘要

    In this study, the water vapor sources for the precipitation processes in southeastern China (SECN) during 1981&ndash;2010 were investigated using atmospheric reanalysis data. We also studied the factors influencing the summer atmospheric moisture over SECN. These two issues are all closely related to the climate signals recorded in stalagmites recovered from caves in SECN. Result supports that the atmospheric water vapor over SECN during the whole summer time is primarily transported from the Indian Ocean. However, the vertically integrated water vapor content throughout the year in SECN has two main sources: the Indian Ocean and the tropical western Pacific. In addition, the water vapor transport for the precipitation processes in SECN has complex vertical structure. At approximately 700 hPa to 500 hPa, part of the water vapor for the precipitation in SECN comes from the Arab-Caspian region. Finally, the water vapor content over SECN is regulated primarily by both the Indian and East Asian monsoons. Further analysis indicated that the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon is substantially regulated by the western Pacific subtropical high, the Eurasia&ndash;Atlantic thermal conditions, as well as the large-scale Eurasia-Atlantic atmospheric circulation. Therefore, the SECN Cave proxies can record the signals from faraway middle and high latitude Eurasia-Atlantic climate, besides the regional East Asian monsoon and remote Indian monsoon.</div>

18) MA JieHua, WANG HuiJun, ZHANG Ying, 2012: Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future? The AGCM simulation under summer ‘ice-free Arctic’ conditions,. China Science Bulletin, 57(8), 921-926. 摘要

   Recently, frequent snowstorms have occurred during the winter, causing large economic losses and attracting wide attention. In particular, these snowstorms have raised an important scientific question: under the scenarios of future global warming, will winter precipitation in China increase significantly and produce more snow in the north? Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP 3) models&rsquo; projections under the SRES A1B scenario, we generated a possible future Arctic condition, the summer (September) &lsquo;ice-free Arctic&rsquo; condition, and then used the corresponding monthly sea surface temperature (SST) values and the set of CO2 concentrations to drive an AGCM model to simulate the resulting East Asian climate change.<br /> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The experimental results show that during the boreal winter (DJF), the global surface air temperature would increase significantly under this scenario and produce substantial warming in the Arctic regions and in the high latitudes of Asia and North America. The Siberian High, Aleutian Low and East Asian winter monsoon would all be weakened. However, due to the increased transport of water vapor to China from the north, the winter precipitation would increase from south to north. In addition, the significant increase in the winter temperature might cause fewer cold surges to occur.</div>

19) 何晏春,郜永祺, 王会军,Johannessen M Ola,于雷, 2012: 2011年3月日本福岛核电站核泄漏在海洋中的传输. 海洋学报, 34, 12-20. 摘要

    使用全球版本的迈阿密等密度海洋环流模式对2011年3月日本福岛核电站泄漏在海洋中的传输以及扩散进行了数值模拟。数值模式中核废料(示踪物)排放情景采取等通量连续排放,排放时间从3月25日开始,分别持续20d以及1a,两种情形分别积分20a。为了减少海洋环流年际变化带来的数值模拟的的不确定性,20a的模式积分分别用2010年、1991-2011年、1971-1991年以及1951-1971年4个不同时段的NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料作为大气强迫场,因此每种排放情形包含4个数值试验。模拟结果的分析表明,不同核废料排放情景及其在不同时段大气资料对海洋模式的驱动下,模拟的示踪物总体的传输扩散路径(包括表层以及次表层)、传输速率以及垂直扩展的范围没有显著的差异。集合平均数值模拟的结果显示:在两种排放情景下,日本福岛核泄漏在海洋的传输路径受北太平洋副热带涡旋洋流系统主导,其传输路径首先主要向东,到达东太平洋后,再向南向西扩散至西太平洋,可能在10-15a左右影响到我国东部沿海海域,且海洋次表层的传输信号比表层信号早5a左右。通过进一步分析模式积分过程中最大示踪物浓度随时间变化发现,在积分第20a(2031年3月),海洋表层和次表层浓度的最高值分别只有模式积分第一年浓度的0.1% 和1%。在积分的20a里,排放的核废料主要滞留在北太平洋海域(超过86% &plusmn;1.5%的核废料在积分结束时,滞留在北太平洋),而在积分的前10a(2021年之前),几乎所有的核废料滞留在北太平洋;在核废料的垂直分布上,主要集中在海洋表层至600m 的深度,在积分的20a时间里,没有核废料信号扩散至1000m 以下的深度。数值模拟的结果也表明核废料浓度减弱的强度以及演变的时间特征主要受洋流系统的影响,与排放源的排放时间长短关系不大。值得指出的是,更加准确地评估一个真实的核泄漏事故对海洋环境所造成的可能影响,还需要考虑大气中的放射性物质的沉降以及海洋生态对核物质的响应。</div>

20) 黄艳艳,王会军, 2012: 欧亚地区夏季大气环流年际变化的关键区及亚洲夏季风的关联信号. 地球物理学报, 55(7), 2227-2238. 摘要

    本文利用资料分析和数值模拟方法研究了欧亚地区夏季大气环流的相关性及其与亚洲夏季风的关联信号,以期为欧亚地区的气候变异及可预测性研究提供科学依据。结果表明:欧亚区域同期(JJA)500百帕高度场年际变化的关键区包括热带区、中纬度的贝加尔湖和巴尔喀什湖之间以及欧洲地中海附近地区;表面气温的关键区主要位于热带海洋;海平面气压的关键区包括热带的海洋性大陆区域、印度洋和非洲大陆赤道附近部分区域、中高纬的贝加尔湖与巴尔喀什湖之间的地区。另外,夏季大气环流年际变化的春季关键区明显西移/南退,特别是表面气温(其西太平洋区不再是关键区)。公用气候系统模式CCSM4.0的大气模式在给定海温年际变化的情况下对于上述大气环流相关场及其关键区的模拟基本合理,其中500百帕高度场的模拟结果较好,海平面气压场的结果逊之;对于同期和前期的结果,模式都有夸大西太平洋海温影响的倾向。对于东亚夏季风指数与大气环流的同期年际变化信号而言,其空间分布基本表现为以30&deg;N为界呈西南东北向的波列状分布;其春季前期信号中,30&deg;N以南的显著区几乎都位于海洋,30&deg;N以北主要位于欧洲、巴尔喀什湖与贝加尔湖之间的地区。南亚夏季风指数的前期显著相关区比同期,明显西移/南退。总之,模式的模拟结果和观测结果相当吻合,但其同期模拟结果比前期的更好一些。这些结果说明:模式对于大气环流年际变化的耦合变化信息的刻画是基本合理的,这为利用气候模式进行有关可预测性研究和降尺度预测研究奠定了基础。</div>

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