当前位置:科学研究 > 科研论文

2012

1) He Shengping, Wang Huijun, 2012: Analysis of the decadal and interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon as simulated by 20 coupled models in IPCC AR4. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 26(4), 476-488 . 摘要

    基于IPCC AR4中20个海气耦合模式的模拟结果以及NCEP观测资料,分析了这些模式对东亚冬季风要素场(海平面气压场、850-hPa风场和表面温度场)的气候平均态、突变时期季风环流场的减弱趋势以及突变前后季风环流场的年代变化的模拟能力。结果表明,有16个模式能够模拟出20世纪80年代中期东亚冬季风的减弱趋势;过半的模式合理再现了突变时期季风环流场的变化趋势以及突变前后的年代际差异,即西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压减弱,北极涛动、北太平洋涛动增强,东亚大槽减弱以及极涡加深。相对于单个模式,多模式集合平均能更好地再现季风环流异常场的空间分布,但是模拟的变化幅度普遍较观测结果小。此外,BCCR-BCM2.0,CGCM3.1-T63,CNRM-CM3,CSIRO-MK3.0,GISS-ER,INM-CM3.0和MRI-CGCM2.3.2表现出对东亚冬季风较为全面的模拟能力。</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

2) 田芝平, 姜大膀, 张冉, 隋月, 2012: CCSM4.0的长期积分试验及其对东亚和中国气候模拟的评估. 大气科学, 36(3), 619-632. 摘要


3) Tian, B.-Q., and K. Fan, 2012: Relationship between the late spring NAO and summer extreme precipitation frequency in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 5(6), 445-460. 摘要 PDF

<br type="_moz" />

4) Sui, Y., and X. Lang, 2012: Monsoon Change in East Asia in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 5(6), 504-508. 摘要


5) Jiang, D., X. Lang, Z. Tian, and T. Wang, 2012: Considerable model-data mismatch in temperature over China during the mid-Holocene: Results of PMIP simulations. Journal of Climate, 25, 4135-4153. 摘要 PDF

Using the experiments undertaken by 36 climate models participating in the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), this study examines annual and seasonal surface temperatures over China during the mid-Holocene. Compared to the present or preindustrial climate, 35 out of the 36 PMIP models reproduced colder-than-baseline annual temperature, with an average cooling of 0.4 K, during that period. Seasonal temperature change followed closely the change in incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere over China during the mid-Holocene. Temperature was reduced (elevated) in boreal winter and spring (summer) in all of the PMIP models, with an average of 1.4 K (1.0 K) at the national scale. Colder (warmer)-than-baseline temperatures were derived from 14 of the 16 atmosphere-only (18 of the 20 coupled) models during the mid-Holocene boreal autumn. Interactive ocean was found to lead to a warming effect on annual (0.3 K), boreal winter (0.5 K), and boreal autumn (0.7 K) temperatures, with reference to the atmosphere-only models. Interactive vegetation had little impact in terms of six pairs of coupled models with and without vegetation effects. The above results are in stark contrast to warmer-than-present annual and winter climate conditions as derived from multiproxy data for the mid-Holocene. Coupled models generally perform better than atmosphere-only models.

6) 田芝平,姜大膀,张冉,隋月, 2012: CCSM4.0的长期积分试验及其对东亚和中国气候模拟的评估. 大气科学, 36, 619-632. 摘要 PDF

本文利用通用气候系统模式CCSM4.0的低分辨率(T31,约3.75度X3.75度)版本进行了700年的长期积分试验,将中国地表气温、降水及东亚海平面气压、500 hPa和100 hPa位势高度、850 hPa风场的最后100年模拟结果与观测和再分析资料进行了定性比较,并对前三个要素的不同统计量值进行了定量计算,系统评估了CCSM4.0对东亚及我国气候的模拟能力。结果表明,模式能够合理模拟各变量的基本分布形态,但幅度与观测有所差别,其中地表气温的模拟效果最好,降水的相对最差。具体而言,地表气温空间分布型与观测一致,但全年青藏高原地表气温模拟值偏高,位于塔里木盆地的暖中心未能模拟出来;降水空间分布型模拟较差,除冬季不明显之外,我国中南部全年都存在一个虚假降水中心,并在夏季达到最强;冬季东亚地区海陆热力对比大于观测,夏季海平面气压场整体模拟效果不如冬季;模式对冬、夏季500 hPa东亚大槽和西北太平洋副热带高压的主要特征刻画较好,但模拟结果整体比观测偏强;夏季100 hPa南亚高压强度与观测接近,但高压范围及中心位置存在偏差;850 hPa东亚冬季风和夏季风环流模拟较好,但冬季西北气流偏强,夏季索马里越赤道气流偏弱、我国东部西南气流偏强。总的来说,CCSM4.0对东亚和我国大尺度气候特征具备合理的模拟能力,尽管在定量上还存在着不足。

7) Zhang, R., D. Jiang, X. Liu, and Z. Tian, 2012: Modeling the climate effects of different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau on Asian summer monsoon evolution. Chinese Science Bulletin, 57, 4617-4626. 摘要 PDF

Considering the different uplifting time of different subregions of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau (TP), a series of numerical simulations have been conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research to explore the effects of the phased tectonic uplift of the Himalaya-TP on the evolution of Asian summer monsoons. The results show that the uplifts of the Himalaya and northern TP significantly affect the evolutions of South Asian summer monsoon and northern East Asian summer monsoon respectively. That is, the tectonic uplift of the Himalaya intensifies the South Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in South Asia, whereas the uplift of the northern TP intensifies the northern East Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in northern East Asia. Compared with previous simulations, current comparative analyses of modeling results for different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-TP help deepen our understanding of the evolutionary history of Asian monsoons.

8) Wang, H. J., J. Q. Sun, H. P. Chen, Y. L. Zhu, Y. Zhang, D. B. Jiang, X. M. Lang, K. Fan, E. T. Yu, and S. Yang, 2012: Extreme Climate in China: Fact, Simulation and Projection. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 21(3), 279-304. 摘要 PDF

In this paper, studies on extreme climate in China including extreme temperature and precipitation, dust weather activity, tropical cyclone activity, intense snowfall and cold surge activity, floods, and droughts are reviewed based on the peer-reviewed publications in recent decades. The review is focused first on the climatological features, variability, and trends in the past half century and then on simulations and projections based on global and regional climate models. As the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increased throughout China, heat wave intensity and frequency overall increased in the past half century, with a large rate after the 1980s. The daily or yearly minimum SAT increased more significantly than the mean or maximum SAT. The long-term change in precipitation is predominantly characterized by the so-called southern flood and northern drought pattern in eastern China and by the overall increase over Northwest China. The interdecadal variation of monsoon, represented by the monsoon weakening in the end of 1970s, is largely responsible for this change in mean precipitation. Precipitation-related extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall and intense snowfall) have become more frequent and intense generally over China in the recent years, with large spatial features. Dust weather activity, however, has become less frequent over northern China in the recent years, as result of weakened cold surge activity, reinforced precipitation, and improved vegetation condition. State-of-the-art climate models are capable of reproducing some features of the mean climate and extreme climate events. However, discrepancies among models in simulating and projecting the mean and extreme climate are also demonstrated by many recent studies. Regional models with higher resolutions often perform better than global models. To predict and project climate variations and extremes, many new approaches and schemes based on dynamical models, statistical methods, or their combinations have been developed, resulting in improved skills. With the improvements of climate model capability and resolution as well as our understanding of regional climate variability and extremes, these new approaches and techniques are expected to further improve the prediction and projection on regional climate variability and extremes over China in the future.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100521457.pdf



9) Zhu, Y. L., 2012: Variations of the summer Somali and Australia cross-equatorial flows and the implications for the Asian summer monsoon. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 29(3), 509-513. 摘要 PDF

The temporal variations during 1948&ndash;2010 and vertical structures of the summer Somali and Australia cross-equatorial flows (CEFs) and the implications for the Asian summer monsoon were explored in this study. The strongest southerly and northerly CEFs exist at 925 hPa and 150 hPa level, respectively. The low-level Somali (LLS) CEFs were significantly connected with the rainfall in most regions of India (especially the monsoon regions), except in a small area in southwest India. In comparison to the climatology, the lowlevel Australia (LLA) CEFs exhibited stronger variations at interannual time scale and are more closely connected to the East Asian summer monsoon circulation than to the LLS CEFs.<br /> The East Asian summer monsoon circulation anomalies related to stronger LLA CEFs were associated with less water vapor content and less rainfall in the region between the middle Yellow River and Yangtze River and with more water vapor and more rainfall in southern China. The sea-surface temperature anomalies east of Australia related to summer LLA CEFs emerge in spring and persist into summer, with implications for the seasonal prediction of summer rainfall in East Asia. The connection between the LLA CEFs and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall may be partly due to its linkage with El Nino-Southern Oscillation. In addition, both the LLA and LLS CEFs exhibited interdecadal shifts in the late 1970s and the late 1990s, consistent with the phase shifts of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100552688.pdf



10) 王会军,孙建奇,祝亚丽, 2012: 中国极端气候及东亚地区能量和水分循环研究的若干近期进展. 自然杂志, 34(1), 10-18. 摘要 PDF

本文介绍了国家重点基础研究计划项目全球变暖背景下东亚能量和水分循环变异及其对我国极端气候的影响(2009-2013)一年多来的若干主要科学进展,包括对于东亚不同典型下垫面能量和水分循环过程的新认识中国极端气候事件的观测事实分析及其与能量和水分循环变异的联系、短期气候预测新方法以及中国未来气候变化预估等方面。最后概要介绍了项目后续的主要研究计划。

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100639331.pdf



11) Chen, H.P., J.Q. Sun, and H.J. Wang , 2012: A Statistical Downscaling Model for Forecasting Summer Rainfall in China from DEMETER Hindcast Datasets. Weather and Forecasting, 27, 608-628. 摘要

A new statistical downscaling (SD) scheme is proposed to predict summertime multisite rainfall measurements in China. The potential predictors are multiple large-scale variables from operational dynamical model output.Akey step in this SD scheme is finding optimal predictors that have the closest and most stable relationship with rainfall at a given station. By doing so, the most robust signals from the large-scale circulation can be statistically projected onto local rainfall, which can significantly improve forecast skill in predicting the summer rainfall at the stations. This downscaling prediction is performed separately for each simulation with a leave-one-out cross-validation approach and an independent sample validation framework.<br /> The prediction skill scores exhibited at temporal correlation, anomaly correlation coefficient, and root-meansquare error consistently demonstrate that dynamical model prediction skill is significantly improved under the SD scheme, especially in the multimodel ensemble strategy. Therefore, this SD scheme has the potential to improve the operational skill when forecasting rainfall based on the coupled models.

12) Sun, J.Q., and H.P. Chen, 2012: A statistical downscaling scheme to improve global precipitation forecasting. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 117, 87-102. 摘要

Based on hindcasts obtained from the &lsquo;&lsquo;Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction&rsquo;&rsquo; (DEMETER) project,<br /> this study proposes a statistical downscaling (SD) scheme suitable for global precipitation forecasting. The key idea of this SD scheme is to select the optimal predictors that are best forecast by coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) and that have the most stable relationships with observed precipitation. Developing the prediction model and further making predictions using these predictors can extract useful information from the CGCMs. Cross-validation and independent sample tests indicate that this SD scheme can significantly improve the prediction capability of CGCMs during the boreal summer (June&ndash;August), even over polar regions. The predicted and observed precipitations are significantly correlated, and the root-mean -square-error of the SD scheme-predicted precipitation is largely decreased compared with the raw CGCM predictions. An inter-model comparison shows that the multimodel<br /> ensemble provides the best prediction performance. This study suggests that combining a multi-model ensemble with the SD scheme can improve the prediction skill for precipitation globally, which is valuable for current operational precipitation prediction.

13) Chen, H.P., J.Q. Sun, X.L. Chen, and W. Zhou , 2012: CGCM projections of heavy rainfall events in China. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 441-450. 摘要

This paper discusses projections of heavy rainfall events in China during the 21st century based on daily precipitation data from the Fourth Assessment Report&rsquo;s (AR4) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCM). Results show that all three experimental scenarios (scenarios A2, A1B, and B1) project consistent changes in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall at the end of 21st century. In the regions of Northeast China and North China, there are no significant changes in frequency but there are remarkable increases in intensity of heavy rainfall, indicating that enhanced intensity is the main contributor to increased ratios of heavy rainfall to total annual precipitation in these regions. In regions of the lower reaches of Yangtze River and South China, increases in the amount of heavy rainfall are closely associated with<br /> increased frequency and increased intensity. Projected frequencies of heavy rainfall at the end of 21st century increase by 30.9 - 56.6% in the Yangtze River and 35.9 - 50.2% in South China compared to the period of 1980&ndash;1999, and projected intensities increase by 1.0 - 5.7% and 2.8 - 6.3%, respectively. Additionally, the ratios of heavy rainfall to total annual precipitation increase by 2.3 - 5.4% in the Yangtze River and 1.8 - 3.8% in South China. The significant increases of heavy rainfall ratios indicate that as the climate warms, heavy rainfall events are expected to increase at rates that are much faster than increases in total precipitation amounts, indicating that China will experience increased amounts of flooding. These results are substantially consistent among the three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios.<br /> The increased probability of heavy rainfall events in China is closely connected with increased transportation of water vapour from the Arabian Sea and the South China Sea. Additionally, atmosphere stratification has become increasingly unstable, which has provided a favorable background for the initiation of heavy rainfall at the end of the 21st century.

14) Wang, H.J., and H.P. Chen, 2012: Climate control for southeastern China moisture and precipitation: Indian or East Asian monsoon?. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D12109, doi:10.1029/2012JD017734. 摘要

In this study, the water vapor sources for the precipitation processes in southeastern<br /> China (SECN) during 1981&ndash;2010 were investigated using atmospheric reanalysis data. We also studied the factors influencing the summer atmospheric moisture over SECN. These two issues are all closely related to the climate signals recorded in stalagmites recovered from caves in SECN. Result supports that the atmospheric water vapor over SECN during the whole summer time is primarily transported from the Indian Ocean. However, the vertically integrated water vapor content throughout the year in SECN has two main sources: the Indian Ocean and the tropical western Pacific. In addition, the water vapor transport for the precipitation processes in SECN has complex vertical structure. At approximately 700 hPa to 500 hPa, part of the water vapor for the precipitation in SECN comes from the Arab-Caspian region. Finally, the water vapor content over SECN is regulated primarily by both the Indian and East Asian monsoons. Further analysis indicated that the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon is substantially regulated by the western Pacific subtropical high, the Eurasia&ndash;Atlantic thermal conditions, as well as the large-scale Eurasia-Atlantic atmospheric circulation. Therefore, the SECN Cave proxies can record the signals from faraway middle and high latitude Eurasia-Atlantic climate, besides the regional East Asian monsoon and remote Indian monsoon.

15) Chen, H.P., J.Q. Sun, and K. Fan, 2012: Decadal Features of Heavy Rainfall Events in Eastern China. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 26(3), 289-303. 摘要

Based on daily precipitation data, the spatial-temporal features of heavy rainfall events (HREs) during 1960&ndash;2009 are investigated. The results indicate that the HREs experienced strong decadal variability in the past 50 years, and the decadal features varied across regions. More HRE days are observed in the 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s over Northeast China (NEC); in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1990s over North China (NC); in the early 1960s, 1980s, and 2000s over the Huaihe River basin (HR); in the 1970s&ndash;1990s over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YR); and in the 1970s and 1990s over South China (SC). These decadal changes of HRE days in eastern China are closely associated with the decadal variations of water content and<br /> stratification stability of the local atmosphere. The intensity of HREs in each sub-region is also characterized by strong decadal variability. The HRE intensity and frequency co-vary on the long-term trend, and show consistent variability over NEC, NC, and YR, but inconsistent variability over SC and HR. Further analysis of the relationships between the annual rainfall and HRE frequency as well as intensity indicates that the HRE frequency is the major contributor to the total rainfall variability in eastern China, while the HRE intensity shows only relative weak contribution.

16) Wang, H.J., J.Q. Sun, H.P. Chen, et al., 2012: Extreme Climate in China: Facts, Simulation and Projection. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 21(3), 279-304. 摘要

In this paper, studies on extreme climate in China including extreme temperature and precipitation, dust weather activity, tropical cyclone activity, intense snowfall and cold surge activity, floods, and droughts are reviewed based on the peer-reviewed publications in recent decades. The review is focused first onthe climatological features, variability, and trends in the past half century and then on simulations and<br /> projections based on global and regional climate models. As the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increased throughout China, heat wave intensity and frequency overall increased in the past half century, with a large rate after the 1980s. The daily or yearly minimum SAT increased more significantly than the mean or maximum SAT. The long-term change in precipitation is predominantly characterized by the so-called<br /> southern flood and northern drought pattern in eastern China and by the overall increase over Northwest China. The interdecadal variation of monsoon, represented by the monsoon weakening in the end of 1970s, is largely responsible for this change in mean precipitation. Precipitation-related extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall and intense snowfall) have become more frequent and intense generally over China in the recent years, with large spatial features. Dust weather activity, however, has become less frequent over northern China in the recent years, as result of weakened cold surge activity, reinforced precipitation, and improved vegetation condition. State-of-the-art climate models are capable of reproducing some features of the mean climate and extreme climate events. However, discrepancies among models in simulating and projecting the mean and extreme climate are also demonstrated by many recent studies. Regional models with higher resolutions often perform better than global models. To predict and project climate variations and extremes, many new<br /> approaches and schemes based on dynamical models, statistical methods, or their combinations have been developed, resulting in improved skills.With the improvements of climate model capability and resolution as well as our understanding of regional climate variability and extremes, these new approaches and techniques<br /> are expected to further improve the prediction and projection on regional climate variability and extremes over China in the future.

17) Fan, K., Y. Liu, and H.P. Chen, 2012: Improving the Prediction of the East Asian Summer Monsoon: New Approaches. Weather and Forecasting, 27, 1017-1030. 摘要

East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) prediction is difficult because of the summer monsoon&rsquo;s weak and unstable linkage with El Nino&ndash;Southern Oscillation (ENSO) interdecadal variability and its complicated association with high-latitude processes. Two statistical prediction schemes were developed to include the interannual increment approach to improve the seasonal prediction of the EASM&rsquo;s strength. The schemes were applied to three models [i.e., the Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM), the Met Office (UKMO), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)] and the Multimodel Ensemble (MME) from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) results for 1961&ndash;2001. The inability of the three dynamical models to reproduce the weakened East Asian monsoon at the end of the 1970s leads to low prediction ability for the interannual variability of the EASM. Therefore, the interannual increment prediction approach was applied to overcome this issue. Scheme I contained the EASM in the form of year-to-year increments as<br /> a predictor that is derived from the direct outputs of the models. Scheme II contained two predictors: both the EASM and also the western North Pacific circulation in the form of year-to-year increments. Both the crossvalidation test and the independent hindcast experiments showed that the two prediction schemes have a much better prediction ability for the EASM than does the original scheme. This study provides an efficient approach for predicting the EASM.

18) 陈活泼,孙建奇,范可, 2012: 新疆夏季降水年代际转型的归因分析. 地球物理学报, 55(6), 1844-1851. 摘要

本研究针对我国内陆新疆地区在20世纪80年代末出现由暖干向暖湿的年代际转型,从大气环流因子进行归因分析.结果显示,位于东亚沿海地区的东亚太平洋型遥相关波列(EAP)的强度和位置的年代际加强和偏移对于新疆地区此次气候的干湿转型具有重要贡献.转型之前EAP 强度偏弱,位置相对偏东,对新疆夏季降水变化没有明显贡献,且影响新疆夏季降水发生的主要环流系统是位于中纬度欧亚大陆上空的异常纬向波列.转型后EAP强度偏强,位置相对前期向西偏移,因此从西北太平洋向我国内陆地区的异常水汽输送显著增强,使得新疆地区大气含水量增加,从而导致20世纪80年代末以后新疆夏季降水的增加.

19) 陈活泼,孙建奇,陈晓丽, 2012: 我国夏季降水及相关大气环流场未来变化的 预估及不确定性分析. 气候与环境研究, 17(2), 171-183. 摘要

利用政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告(IPCC AR4)的15个耦合气候模式在不同排放情景下的模拟结果,对我国夏季降水及相关大气环流场的未来时空变化特征与模式之间的不确定性作了研究.结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,我国夏季降水表现出较强的局地特征.其中,我国东部和高原地区的降水在21世纪表现出明显的增加趋势,而且这种趋势随着变暖的加剧而增强,同时模式模拟结果之间的一致性也更好,表明这一结果的可信度较高.在全球变暖背景下,我国新疆南部地区表现为持续的降水减少趋势,而我国西南地区夏季降水的变化则呈现出先减少(21世纪初)后增加的特征,不同模式对降水这些局地特征的模拟也都表现出较好的一致性.其他地区夏季降水在21世纪的变化不大,同时模式模拟的一致性也较差.多模式模拟的我国未来百年夏季降水的这些变化特征在温室气体高,中,低不同排放情景下基本一致,A2情景预估结果变化最大,A1B次之,B1相对最小.<br /> 东亚夏季大气环流场的预估结果显示,在全球变暖的背景下,大部分模式的模拟结果都表明,东亚夏季风环流有所增强,从而使得由低纬度大洋和南海地区向我国大陆的水汽输送增加,造成该地区大气含水量的增多,从而为我国东部地区夏季降水的增加提供有利条件.此外,随着全球变暖的加剧,西太平洋副热带高压持续增强,其变化对我国东部地区夏季降水的影响程度和范围也明显增大.这些环流场及其不确定性的分析结果进一步加强了我国夏季降水未来变化预估结果的可信度.

20) 贺圣平,王会军, 2012: 东亚冬季风综合指数及其表达的东亚冬季风年际变化特征. 大气科学, 36(3), 523-538. 摘要 PDF


21) Li Fei and Huijun Wang, 2012: Predictability of the East Asian winter monsoon interannual variability as indicated by the DEMETER CGCMS. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 29, 441-454. 摘要


22) Li Fei and Huijun Wang, 2012: Autumn Sea Ice Cover, Winter Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode, and Winter Precipitation in Eurasia. Journal of Climate, 26, 3968-3981. 摘要


23) He Shengping, Huijun Wang, 2012: Analysis of the decadal and interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon as simulated by 20 coupled models in IPCC AR4. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 26, 476-488. 摘要 PDF


24) Wang Huijun, Shengping He, 2012: Weakening Relationship between East Asian Winter Monsoon and ENSO after mid-1970s. Chinese Science Bulletin, 57(27), 3535-3540. 摘要 PDF


25) Wang Shuzhou, Yu Entao, Wang Huijun, 2012: A simulation study of a heavy rainfall process over the Yangtze River valley using the two-way nesting approach. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 29, 731-743. 摘要


26) 黄艳艳, 王会军, 2012: 欧亚地区夏季大气环流年际变化的关键区及亚洲夏季风的关联信号. 地球物理学报, 55 2227–2238, . 摘要


27) Ma Jiehua, Wang Huijun, Zhang Ying, 2012: Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future?. The AGCM simulation under summer ‘ice-free Arctic’ conditions. China Science Bulletin, 57(8), 921-926. 摘要

    近年来,我国冬季北方的暴雪经常发生,造成了很大的经济损失,也引起了广泛的关注。尤其引发的一个重要科学问题是:未来全球变暖情景下,我国冬季降水是否会显著增加从而导致北方的暴雪更多地发生?本文利用CMIP3模式在IPCC A1B情景下对未来气候的预测结果,得到北极夏季(September)无海冰时的一种情景,即Free Arctic。利用相应的海温场和CO2含量驱动一个全球大气环流模式,来对北极夏季无海冰时的东亚各季节气候做出数值模拟。
    试验结果表明,此时的冬季(DJF)全球表面气温有显著的不同程度的升高,升温幅度最大的区域是在北极地区和亚洲、北美洲的高纬地区。西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压均减弱,东亚冬季风减弱。但是,由于来自北方的水汽输送的加强,我国冬季从南到北降水增多。由于增暖的协同作用,我国北方未来寒潮的概率有可能减少;北方部分地区降雪有可能增加,因为降雪的温度条件是基本满足的。

28) 宗培书,王会军, 2012: RegCM3对中国淮河流域降水模拟能力的检验及分析. 气象学报, 70(2), 253-260. 摘要 PDF


29) 宗培书,王会军, 2012: Evaluation and Analysis of RegCM3 Simulated Summer Rainfall over the Huaihe River Basin of China. 气象学报(英文版), 25(3), 386-394. 摘要


30) Wang H. J., Jian-Qi Sun, Huo-Po Chen, Ya-Li Zhu, Ying Zhang, Da-Bang Jiang, Xian-Mei Lang, Ke Fan, En-Tao Yu, and Song Yang, 2012: Extreme Climate in China: Fact, Simulation and Projection. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 21(3), 279-304. 摘要


31) Ma Jiehua, Wang Huijun, Zhang Ying, 2012: Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future?. The AGCM simulation under summer ‘ice-free Arctic’ conditions. China Science Bulletin, 57(8), 921-926. 摘要


32) Zhang Y. and J. Q. Sun, , 2012: Model Projection of Precipitation minus Evaporation over China. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 26(3), 376–388. 摘要


33) Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, Li Duo, 2012: A projection of permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau during the 21st century. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D05106, doi:10.1029/2011JD016545. 摘要 PDF


34) Luo, F., S. Li, Y. Gao, and T. Furevik, 2012: A new method for predicting decadal component of global SST. Atmos. Ocn. Sci. Lett., 5(6), 521-526. 摘要


35) Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, 2012: The significant climate warming in the northern Tibetan Plateau and its possible causes. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 1775–1781. 摘要 PDF


2011

1) Wang A., Dennis P. Lettenmaier, and J. Sheffield, 2011: Soil moisture drought in China, 1950-2006. J. Climate, 24, 3257-3271. 摘要


2) 田向军,谢正辉, 王爱慧, 杨晓春, 2011: 一种求解贝叶斯模型平均的新方法. 中国科学, 41, 1:1-9. 摘要


3) Wang, Huijun, 2011: A new prediction model for tropical storm frequency over the western North Pacific using observed winter-spring precipitation and geopotential height at 500 hPa. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 25(3), 262-271. 摘要

    A new seasonal prediction model for annual tropical storm numbers (ATSNs) over the western North Pacific was developed using the preceding January-February (JF) and April-May (AM) grid-point data at a resolution of 2.5&deg;&times;2:5&deg;. The JF and AM mean precipitation and the AM mean 500-hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere, together with the JF mean 500-hPa geopotential height in the Southern Hemisphere, were employed to compose the ATSN forecast model via the stepwise multiple linear regression technique. All JF and AM mean data were confined to the Eastern Hemisphere. We established two empirical prediction models for ATSN using the ERA40 reanalysis and NCEP reanalysis datasets, respectively, together with the observed precipitation. The performance of the models was verified by cross-validation. Anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) at 0.78 and 0.74 were obtained via comparison of the retrospective predictions of the two models and the observed ATSNs from 1979 to 2002. The multiyear mean absolute prediction errors were 3.0 and 3.2 for the two models respectively, or roughly 10% of the average ATSN. In practice, the final prediction was made by averaging the ATSN predictions of the two models. This resulted in a higher score, with ACC being further increased to 0.88, and the mean absolute error reduced to 1.92, or 6.13% of the average ATSN.</div>

4) 燕青,张仲石,王会军,姜大膀,郑伟鹏, 2011: 上新世中期海洋表面温度变化及其与古气候重建数据对比. 科学通报, 6, 423-432. 摘要

    上新世中期, 过去约3.29~2.97 Ma 之间, 是地质历史上距今最近的一个持续性暖期.它与模式预测的21 世纪末地球系统最有可能达到的气候态具有一定的可比性. 因此, 研究该时期气候变化对于理解全球变暖背景下的气候变化趋势具有重要的参考作用. 采用最新的PRISM3 重建数据集, 利用FOAM 耦合模式开展了上新世中期的全球气候模拟, 并对上新世中期次极地北大西洋剧烈增暖和&ldquo;永久的El Ni?o&rdquo;两个热点问题进行了讨论. 模拟结果表明: 与工业革命前相比, 上新世中期年平均海洋表面温度(SST)升高了2.3℃, 中高纬度海洋的增温幅度大于低纬度海洋, 赤道太平洋SST 东西梯度减小以及大西洋经向翻转环流减弱. 在SST 变化的空间格局上, 模拟结果与重建结果基本一致. FOAM 也能较好地模拟出北大西洋、北太平洋以及南美西海岸的显著增暖, 但模拟的次极地北大西洋和赤道太平洋SST 的变化与重建数据仍有差别. 上述重建与模拟的差异是由古气候数据重建的不确定性、上新世中期模拟的困难以及模式本身的不完善共同造成的.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

5) 孙建奇,王会军,袁薇, 2011: 我国极端高温事件的年代际变化及其与大气环流的联系. 气候与环境研究, 16(2), 199-208. 摘要

    利用1957~2004年全国181个气象台站观测逐日最高气温,分析了我国年平均极端高温事件(Extreme Hot Events,EHE)日数、强度、最早发生日期(EHE Onset Date, EHE_OD)和最迟发生日期(EHE Termination Date,EHE_TD)的气候态及年代际变化的时空特征。气候态分析结果显示,EHE的主要高发区位于我国东南部和新疆地区,其年际变率的较大区主要位于我国东部,新疆地区相对较小。我国EHE在过去48年中存在明显的年代际变化特征,其中发生日数与强度变化一致,EHE_OD和EHE_TD的变化相类似。按照EHE的时空变化特征,可将我国分为南部、中部、北方东部和北方西部4个区。南部地区EHE的多发期主要集中在20世纪60和80年代,中部地区为60和90年代,北方地区为90年代。进而对造成这4个区域EHE发生异常的年际和年代际大气环流因子进行分析,结果表明影响其年际和年代际变化的大气环流型是一致的。对北方地区而言,影响因子主要是对流层中高层的位势高度异常;而影响我国中部和南部地区的因子,除了其上空中高层的位势高度异常外,低层冷暖平流输送的作用也非常重要,这两个因子的共同作用造成该地EHE的异常。</div>

6) 马洁华,王会军,张颖, 2011: 北极夏季无海冰状态时的东亚气候变化数值模拟研究. 气候变化研究进展, 7 (3), 162-170. 摘要

    利用CMIP3模式在IPCC SRES A1B情景下对未来气候的预测结果,得到北极夏季无海冰的一种情况,即&ldquo;free Arctic&rdquo;。利用相应的海温场和CO2含量驱动全球大气环流模式,模拟北极夏季无海冰时的东亚气候。试验结果表明,夏季北极无海冰时,全球表面气温有不同程度的明显升高,高纬地区升温幅度大于低纬地区,同纬度地区陆地大于海洋。海平面气压场表现为陆地上一致性的降低以及副热带海洋和南极洲边缘部分海域的升高。此外,东亚夏季风环流明显增强,季风区降水明显增多。</div>

7) Yue, X., Liao, H., Wang, H. J., Li, S. L., and Tang, J. P, 2011: Role of sea surface temperature responses in simulation of the climatic effect of mineral dust aerosol,. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, 6049-6062. 摘要

    Mineral dust aerosol can be transported over the nearby oceans and influence the energy balance at the sea surface. The role of dust-induced sea surface temperature (SST) responses in simulations of the climatic effect of dust is examined by using a general circulation model with online simulation of mineral dust and a coupled mixed-layer ocean model. Both the longwave and shortwave radiative effects of mineral dust aerosol are considered in climate simulations. The SST responses are found to be very influential on simulated dust-induced climate change, especially when climate simulations consider the two-way dust-climate coupling to account for the feedbacks. With prescribed SSTs and dust concentrations, we obtain an increase of 0.02 K in the global and annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) in response to dust radiative effects. In contrast, when SSTs are allowed to respond to radiative forcing of dust in the presence of the dust cycle-climate interactions, we obtain a global and annual mean cooling of 0.09 K in SAT by dust. The extra cooling simulated with the SST responses can be attributed to the following two factors: (1) The negative net radiative forcing of dust at the surface reduces SST, which decreases latent heat fluxes and upward transport of water vapor, resulting in less warming in the atmosphere; (2) The positive feedback between SST responses and dust cycle. The dust-induced reductions in SST lead to reductions in precipitation (or wet deposition of dust) and hence increase the global burden of small dust particles. These small particles have strong scattering effects, which enhance the dust cooling at the surface and further reduce SSTs.</div>

8) Yue, X., Wang, H. J., Liao, H., and Jiang, D. B, 2011: Simulation of the direct radiative effect of mineral dust aerosol on the climate at the Last Glacial Maximum. Journal of Climate, 24, 843-858. 摘要

    The climatic responses to the direct radiative effect of dust aerosol at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are examined using a general circulation model with online simulation of dust. The predicted global dust emission at the LGM is 2.3 times as large as the present-day value, which is the combined effect of the expansion of dust sources and the favorable meteorological parameters (MPs, such as the strong surface wind and the low air humidity) under the LGM climate. Simulated global dust emission is 1966 Tg yr-1 with present-day dust sources and MPs, 2820 Tg yr-1 with LGM dust sources and current MPs, 2599 Tg yr-1 with present-day dust sources and LGM MPs, and 4579 Tg yr-1 with LGM sources and MPs. The simulated percentage increases of dust concentrations are the largest at high latitudes in both hemispheres, which are consistent with the deposition data from geological records. The LGM dust is estimated to exert global annual mean shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcings (RF) of, respectively, -4.69 W m-2 and +1.70 W m-2 at the surface, and -0.58 W m-2 and + 0.68 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere. On a global and annual mean basis, surface air temperature (SAT) is predicted to be reduced by 0.18 K and precipitation is reduced by 0.06 mm day-1, as a result of the net (SW and LW) radiative effect of dust at the LGM. Two sensitivity studies are performed to identify the uncertainties in simulated climatic effect of LGM dust that arise from the assumed LW and/or SW absorption by dust: (1) in the absence of dust LW radiative effect, the LGM global and annual mean SAT is predicted to be further reduced by 0.19 K; and (2) when the single scattering albedo of the Saharan dust at 0.55 &mu;m is increased from 0.89 to 0.98 in the LGM climate simulation, the LGM dust-induced annual and global mean surface cooling increases from 0.18 K to 0.63 K even with both SW and LW radiative effects of dust. In these two sensitivity studies, the LGM dust is predicted to induce an average cooling of, respectively, 0.42 and 0.72 K in SAT over the tropical oceans.</div>

9) Wang Huijun, Yu Entao, Yang Song, 2011: An exceptionally heavy snowfall in Northeast China: large-scale circulation anomalies and hindcast of the NCAR WRF model. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys, 113, 11-25. 摘要

    In Northeast China (NEC), snowfalls usually occur during winter and early spring, from mid-October to late March, and strong snowfalls rarely occur in middle spring. During 12&ndash;13 April 2010, an exceptionally strong snowfall occurred in NEC, with 26.8 mm of accumulated water-equivalent snow over Harbin, the capital of the most eastern province in NEC. In this study, the major features of the snowfall and associated large-scale circulation and the predictability of the snowfall are analyzed using both observations and models. The Siberia High intensified and shifted southeastward from 10 days before the snowfall, resulting in intensifying the low-pressure system over NEC and strengthening the East Asian Trough during 12&ndash;13 April. Therefore, large convergence of water vapor and strong rising motion appeared over eastern NEC, resulting in heavy snowfall. Hindcast experiments were carried out using the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in a two-way nesting approach, forced by NCEP Global Forecast System data sets. Many observed features including the large-scale and regional circulation anomalies and snowfall amount can be reproduced reasonably well, suggesting the feasibility of the WRF model in forecasting extreme weather events over NEC. A quantitative analysis also shows that the nested NEC domain simulation is even better than mother domain simulation in simulating the snowfall amount and spatial distribution, and that both simulations are more skillful than the NCEP Global Forecast System output. The forecast result from the nested forecast system is very promising for an operational purpose.</div>

10) Jiang, D., X. Lang, Z. Tian, and D. Guo, 2011: Last glacial maximum climate over China from PMIP simulations. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 309, 347-357. 摘要 PDF

Using the results of 25 climate models under the framework of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) and available proxy data, this study examines the regional climate of China during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21,000 years ago). Compared to the baseline climate, results show that annual surface temperature decreased by 2.00-7.00 K in China during that period, with an average of 4.46 K, for the ensemble mean of all models. Annual precipitation and evaporation during the LGM were 5-40% less than the baseline values, with an average reduction of 20% (0.60 mm/day) and a reduction of 21% (0.41 mm/day) at the national scale, based on results from 15 out of the 25 models. These models were selected for their ability to simulate the modern precipitation climatology and for the availability of suitable evaporation data. Both the geographical distribution and magnitude of changes in surface temperature, precipitation, and evaporation during the LGM varied with the seasons and with the models, particularly at the sub-regional scale. Model-data comparisons revealed that the 25 models successfully reproduced the surface cooling trend during the LGM, but they failed to reproduce its magnitude in all four regions of comparison, particularly in the Hexi Corridor and in North and Northeast China. The simulations with computed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were in better agreement with proxy estimates of surface temperature than those with prescribed SSTs. On the other hand, large-scale LGM-minus-baseline anomalies in annual precipitation minus evaporation agreed well, in a qualitative manner, with lake status-based reconstructions of changes in annual water budgets in East China and the region of 35-42N, 74-97&deg;E. On the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, drier climates from the 15 models agreed with pollen-based reconstructions. For most parts of West China excluding the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the simulations with computed (prescribed) SSTs are consistent (inconsistent) with reconstructed moister conditions.

11) Zhu,Y. L. H. J. Wang, W. Zhou, and J. H. Ma, 2011: Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. Climate Dynamics, 36, 1463-1473. 摘要 PDF

This study documents the decadal changes of the summer precipitation in East China, with increased rainfall in the Huang-Huai River region (HR) and decreased in the Yangtze River region (YR) during 2000&ndash;2008 in comparison to 1979&ndash;1999. The main features of the atmospheric circulation related to the increased precipitation in the HR are the strengthened ascending motion and slightly increased air humidity, which is partly due to the weakened moisture transport out of the HR to the western tropical Pacific (associated with the weakened westerly over East Asia and the warming center over the Lake Baikal). The rainfall decrease in the YR is related to the weakened ascending motion and reduced water vapor content, which is mainly related to the weakened southwesterly moisture flux into the YR (associated with the eastward recession of the Western Pacific Subtropical High). The global sea surface temperature (SST) also shows significant changes during 2000&ndash;2008 relative to 1979&ndash;1999. The shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) to a negative phase probably induces the warming over the Lake Baikal and the weakened westerly jet through the air-sea interaction in the Pacific, and thus changes the summer precipitation pattern in East China. Numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model, with prescribed all-Pacific SST anomalies of 2000&ndash;2008 relative to 1979&ndash;1999, also lend support to the PDO&rsquo;s contribution to the warming over the Lake Baikal and the weakened westerlies over East China.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100253376.pdf



12) Zhu, Y. L., 2011: A seasonal prediction model for the summer rainfall in Northeast China using the year-to-year increment approach. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4, 146-150. 摘要 PDF

Using the year-to-year increment approach, this study investigated the relationship of selected climatic elements with the increment time series of the summer rainfall between successive years in Northeast China, including the soil moisture content, sea surface temperature, 500 hPa geopotential height, and sea level pressure in the preceding spring for the period 1981–2008. Two spring predictors were used to construct the seasonal prediction model: the area mean soil moisture content in Northwest Eurasia and the 500 hPa geopotential height over Northeast China. Both the cross-validation and comparison with previous studies showed that the above two predictors have good predicting ability for the summer rainfall in Northeast China.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100419320.pdf



13) Sun, B., Y. L. Zhu, H. J. Wang, 2011: The Recent Interdecadal and Interannual Variation of Water Vapor Transport over Eastern China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 28(5), 1039-1048. 摘要 PDF

The climatological characteristics and interdecadal variability of the water vapor transport and budget over the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys (YH1) and the Yangtze River-Huaihe River valleys (YH2) of East China were investigated in this study, using the NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis datasets from 1979 to 2009. Changes in the water vapor transport pattern occurred during the late 1990s over YH1 (YH2) that corresponded with the recent interdecadal changes in the eastern China summer precipitation pattern. The net moisture influx in the YH1 increased and the net moisture influx in the YH2 decreased during 2000&ndash;2009 in comparison to 1979&ndash;1999. Detailed features in the moisture flux and transport changes across the four boundaries were explored. The altered water vapor transport over the two domains can be principally attributed to the additive effects of the changes in the confluent southwesterly moisture flow by the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon (related with the eastward recession of the western Pacific subtropical high). The altered water vapor transport over YH1 was also partly caused by the weakened midlatitude westerlies.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100450541.pdf



14) Sun, J.Q., and H.P. Chen, 2011: Predictability of western North Pacific typhoon activity and its factors using DEMETER coupled models. Chinese Science Bulletin, 56, 3474-3479. 摘要

Climate prediction using a coupled model with a one-tier scheme is an important research direction. In this study, based on 1974&ndash;2001 hindcasts obtained from the &ldquo;Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction&rdquo; (DEMETER) project, the capability of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to predict six climatic factors that have a close relationship with the western North Pacific typhoon activity is investigated over summer (June&ndash;October). Results indicate that all six DEMETER CGCMs well predict the six factors. Using the statistical relationship between these six factors and the typhoon frequency, the ability of the CGCMs to predict typhoon frequency is further explored. It is found that the six CGCMs also well predict the variability in typhoon frequency. Comparison analysis shows that the prediction skill of the statistical<br /> downscaling method is much better than that of the raw CGCMs. In addition, the six-model ensemble has the best prediction performance. This study suggests that combining a multi-model ensemble and statistical downscaling greatly improves the CGCM prediction skill, and will be an important research direction for typhoon prediction.

15) Yu Entao, Wang Huijun, Gao Yongqi, Sun Jianqi, 2011: Impacts of Cumulus Convective Parameterization Schemes on Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation over China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 25, . 摘要


16) Wang Huijun, Yu Entao and Yang Song, 2011: An exceptionally heavy snowfall in Northeast china: large-scale circulation anomalies and hindcast of the NCAR WRF model. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 113, 11-25. 摘要


17) 马洁华, 王会军, 张颖, 2011: 北极夏季无海冰状态时的东亚气候变化数值模拟研究. 气候变化研究进展, 7(3), 178-183. 摘要

    利用CMIP3模式在IPCC A1B状态下对未来气候的预测结果,得到北极夏季无海冰的一种情况,即free Arctic。利用相应的海温场和CO2含量驱动一个全球大气环流模式,模拟北极夏季无海冰时的东亚气候。试验结果表明,夏季北极无海冰时,全球表面气温有明显的不同程度的升高,升温幅度高纬地区大于低纬地区,同纬度地区陆地大于海洋。同时海平面气压场表现为陆地上一致性的降低和副热带海洋、南极边缘海部分海域的升高。此外,对东亚地区的重点分析表明,东亚夏季风环流明显增强,季风区夏季降水明显增多。

18) Zhu Yali, Wang Huijun, Zhou Wen, and Ma Jiehua, 2011: Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. Climate Dynamics, 36(7-8), 1463-1473. 摘要


19) Jiang, D., Y. Zhang, and X. Lang, 2011: Vegetation feedback under future global warming. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 106, 211–227. 摘要


20) 马洁华, 王会军, 张颖,, 2011: 北极夏季无海冰状态时的东亚气候变化数值模拟研究. 气候变化研究进展, 7(3), 178-183. 摘要


21) 孙博,祝亚丽,王会军, 2011: The recent interdecadal and interannual variation of water vapor transport over eastern China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 28, 1039–1048. 摘要


22) Luo, F., S. Li, and T. Furevik, 2011: The connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Indian Summer Monsoon in Bergen Climate Model Version 2.0. J. Geophys. Res., 116, doi: 10.1029/2011JD015848. 摘要


23) Guo Donglin, Yang Meixue, Wang Huijun, 2011: Characteristics of land surface heat and water exchange under different soil freeze/thaw conditions over the central Tibetan Plateau. Hydrological Processes, 25, 2531–2541. 摘要 PDF


24) Guo Donglin, Yang Meixue, Wang Huijun, 2011: Sensible and latent heat flux response to diurnal variation in soil surface temperature and moisture under different freeze/thaw soil conditions in the seasonal frozen soil region of the central Tibetan Plateau. Environmental Earth Sciences, 63, 97–107. 摘要 PDF


25) Jiang Dabang, Lang Xianmei, Tian Zhiping, Guo Donglin, 2011: Last glacial maximum climate over China from PMIP simulations. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 309, 347–357. 摘要 PDF


2010

1) Wang, T.,H.J. Wang,and D.B. Jiang, 2010: Mid-Holocene East Asian summer climate as simulated by the PMIP2 models. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 288, 93-102. 摘要 PDF

In the present study, datasets derived from twelve coupled ocean&ndash;atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase two were used to analyze the East Asian summer climate during the mid-Holocene (about 6,000 calendar years ago). On the whole, the OAGCMs reproduced warmer and wetter summer climate conditions in East Asia during the mid-Holocene. The multi-model ensemble showed that in East Asia, the regionally-averaged summer surface air temperature (SAT) increased by 0.89&deg;C, summer precipitation was 5.8% higher, and an obviously strengthened southerly wind corresponded to a strong summer monsoon in the mid-Holocene when compared to preindustrial levels. The data-model comparison in China reveals a good agreement between the OAGCMs&rsquo; results and the reconstructed changes in the summer SAT in East China during the mid-Holocene. In North China, the simulated SAT anomalies are 0.5&deg;C lower overall than reconstruction. In contrast, the OAGCMs fail to capture the strongest warming in the southern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. On the other hand, the simulated precipitation agrees well with proxy data except for in the central parts of China, where the simulated summer precipitation disagrees in sign with reconstruction. In addition, there is a large spread among the simulations, particularly over and around the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and inter-model discrepancies are larger for precipitation than for SAT as a whole.

2) WANG Huijun and ZHANG Ying, 2010: Model Projections of East Asia Summer Climate under the ‘Free Arctic’ Scenario. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 3(3), 176-180. 摘要

    This paper addresses the &lsquo;ice-free Arctic&rsquo; issue under the future global warming scenario. Four coupled climate models used in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were selected to project summer climate conditions over East Asia once the Arctic becomes ice-free. The models project that an ice-free Arctic summer will begin in the 2060s under the SRESA1B (according to IPCC Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios) simulations. Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoons will tend to be stronger and that the water vapor transport to central northern China will be strengthened, leading to increased summer precipitation in central northern China. The models also project an intensified Antarctic Oscillation, a condition which favors increased precipitation in South China&rsquo;s Yangtze River Valley. The overall precipitation in Northwest China is projected to increase under ice-free Arctic summer conditions.</div>

3) Xu Yue, Huijun Wang, Hong Liao and Ke Fan, 2010: Simulation of dust aerosol radiative feedback using the GMOD:2. Dust-climate interactions. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 115, D04201, doi:10.1029/2009JD012063. 摘要

    We examine equilibrium climate responses to the shortwave and/or longwave direct radiative effect of mineral dust aerosol using the Global transport Model of Dust (GMOD) embedded within a general circulation model (GCM). The presence of mineral dust aerosol in the atmosphere is estimated to exert global mean shortwave and longwave radiative forcings (RF) of -0.25 W m-2 and +0.27 W m-2, respectively, at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and -1.95 W m-2 and +0.61 W m-2 at the surface. Climatic effect of dust is simulated using two different approaches. In the first approach, monthly mean fields of dust simulated a priori are used in the radiative transfer module of the GCM to drive climate change, with levels of dust fixed during the climate integration (denoted as simulation FIXDST). In the second approach, dust aerosol interacts online with meteorology through the dust cycle and its direct radiative effect (denoted as simulation CPLD). With both longwave and shortwave RF of dust, predicted changes in global and annual mean surface air temperature and air temperature at 200 hPa are zero and +0.12 K, respectively, in FIXDST, and -0.06 K and +0.05 K in the CPLD simulation. The stronger cooling in CPLD than in FIXDST is a result of a 13% higher dust burden in CPLD with dust-climate interactions. Although dust longwave radiative effect is predicted to offset a large portion of its shortwave effect on a global and annual mean basis, dust shortwave effect dominates during the daytime, and the longwave effect prevails at night, which is found to be very important for predictions of temperature. For example, over the Sahara Desert, the changes in annual mean, annual mean daytime, and annual mean nighttime surface air temperature are predicted to be +0.32 K, -0.11 K, and +0.68 K, respectively, in the FIXDST simulation. The longwave and shortwave radiative effects of dust are predicted to have different impacts on the dust cycle in CPLD simulation; the solar radiative effect reduces dust emissions by increasing surface humidity and by reducing surface wind speed, while the thermal effect increases dust uplift through opposite changes in the meteorological parameters.</div>

4) Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang and Wei Yuan,, 2010: Linkage of the Boreal Spring Antarctic Oscillation to the West African Summer Monsoon. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 88, 15-28. 摘要


The relationship between the boreal spring (or the austral autumn) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) (March– April) and the West African summer monsoon (WASM) (June–September) is analyzed based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results show that the linkage of the boreal spring AAO to the WASM exhibits decadal-scale variations: a strong connection between the two appears over the period 1985–2006 and a weak connection over the period 1970–1984. Further analysis indicates that such an unstable relationship between the two results from the modulation by ENSO events to a large extent.

 

A possible mechanism for the impacts of the boreal spring AAO on the WASM is also discussed. The variability of the boreal spring tropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) appears to serve as a bridge linking these two systems. The boreal spring AAO produces an anomalous SST over the tropical South Atlantic by exciting an equatorward Rossby wave train over the western Southern Hemisphere (SH). This AAO-related SST anomaly modulates the meridional gradient of moist static energy (MSE) between the Sahel and the Guinea-tropical Atlantic region in the boreal spring. The MSE gradient is of paramount importance for the changes from spring to summer in the West African monsoon because its relaxation along the seasonal cycle is linked to the northward excursion of the WASM system into the African continent. Therefore, an anomalous AAO-related MSE gradient can lead to anomalous Sahel rainfall in the early summer. When this rainfall occurs over the Sahel, the local positive soil moisture-rainfall feedback plays a crucial role in sustaining and prolonging this rainfall anomaly throughout the whole summer.
   

5) Yali Zhu, Huijun Wang, Wen Zhou, Jiehua Ma, 2010: Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0852-9, . 摘要

    This study documents the decadal changes of the summer precipitation in East China, with increased rainfall in the Huang-Huai River region (HR) and decreased in the Yangtze River region (YR) during 2000&ndash;2008 in comparison to 1979&ndash;1999. The main features of the atmospheric circulation related to the increased precipitation in the HR are the strengthened ascending motion and slightly increased air humidity, which is partly due to the weakened moisture transport out of the HR to the western tropical Pacific (associated with the weakened westerly over East Asia and the warming center over the Lake Baikal). The rainfall decrease in the YR is related to the weakened ascending motion and reduced water vapor content, which is mainly related to the weakened southwesterly moisture flux into the YR (associated with the eastward recession of the Western Pacific Subtropical High). The global sea surface temperature (SST) also shows significant changes during 2000&ndash;2008 relative to 1979&ndash;1999. The shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) to a negative phase probably induces the warming over the Lake Baikal and the weakened westerly jet through the air-sea interaction in the Pacific, and thus changes the summer precipitation pattern in East China. Numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model, with prescribed all-Pacific SST anomalies of 2000&ndash;2008 relative to 1979&ndash;1999, also lend support to the PDO&rsquo;s contribution to the warming over the Lake Baikal and the weakened westerlies over East China.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

6) 王会军,张颖,郎咸梅, 2010: 论短期气候预测的对象问题. 气候与环境研究, 15(3), 225-228. 摘要

    基于气候变化的物理过程和数学方面的考虑,讨论了短期气候预测的对象问题。短期气候预测对我国具有重大的经济和社会价值,但也是非常困难的科学难题和科学工程。传统的把气候距平作为预测对象的方法并不一定具有科学严谨性和应用上的高效性。因此提出把气候年际增量作为新的预测对象,并从数学物理考虑上进行了讨论。最后,基于一个气候模式的预测试验,实际检验了新的预测对象方案的效果。</div>

7) WANG Huijun and QIAN Zhuolei, 2010: A potential high-score Scheme for the seasonal prediction of Atlantic storm activity. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 3(2), 116−119. 摘要

    A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January&minus;February and April&minus;May. The 2.5&deg;&times;2.5&deg; resolution reanalysis data from both the US National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) were applied. The model was cross-validated using data from 1979&minus;2002. The ATSN predictions from the two reanalysis models were correlated with the observations with the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) of 0.79 (NCEP/NCAR) and 0.78 (ECMWF) and the multi-year mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) of 1.85 and 1.76, respectively. When the predictions of the two models were averaged, the ACC increased to 0.90 and the MAE decreased to 1.18, an exceptionally high score. Therefore, this new empirical approach has the potential to improve the operational prediction of the annual tropical Atlantic storm frequency.</div> </div>

8) Xianmei Lang and Huijun Wang, 2010: Improving Extraseasonal Summer Rainfall Prediction by Merging Information from GCMs and Observations. WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 25, 1263-1274. 摘要

     A new prediction approach for summer (June&ndash;August) rainfall in China was designed by considering both preceding observations and numerically predicted summer rainfall through a multivariate linear regression analysis. First, correlation analyses revealed close relationships between summer rainfall in parts of China with the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the preceding winter (December&ndash;February). The Huang-Huai Valley, two subregions of the Jiang-Huai Valley, the southern Yangtze River, south China, and southeastern Xinjiang were then chosen as targets for their regional climate characteristics. Following this, an extraseasonal (one season in advance) regression prediction model for regionally averaged summer rainfall was constructed by using these three climate factors and a 3-month leadtime forecast of summer rainfall, undertaken by an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) forced by observed SSTs, as predictors region by region. To improve the accuracy of prediction, the systematic error between the original regression model&rsquo;s results and its observational counterparts, averaged for the last 10 yr,was corrected. Using this new approach, real-time prediction experiments and cross-validation analyses were performed for the periods 2002&ndash;07 and 1982&ndash;2007, respectively. It was found that the new prediction approach was more skillful than the original or corrected GCM prediction alone in terms of sign, magnitude, and interannual variability of regionally averaged summer rainfall anomalies in all regions. The preceding observations were the major source of the prediction skill of summer rainfall in each region, and the GCM predictions added additional prediction skill in thewestern Jiang-HuaiValley and southeastern Xinjiang, in both of which the GCM prediction was used as a predictor. <p>&nbsp;</p> </div>

9) Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang, Wei Yuan and Huopo Chen, 2010: Spatial‐temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 115, D16110, doi:10.1029/2009JD0134. 摘要

The statistical spatial‐temporal features of the intense snowfall event (ISE) in China are investigated over the period of 1962–2000. The results indicate that eastern China, northern Xinjiang, the eastern Tibetan plateau, and northeastern China are four key regions for the ISE, with more frequency and strong variability. Annual cycle analysis shows the ISE exhibits a unimodal distribution with maximum frequency at winter months for eastern China, a bimodal distribution with maximum frequency at early winter and spring months for northern Xinjiang and northeastern China, and a bimodal distribution with maximum frequency at autumn and spring months for the eastern Tibetan plateau. Linear trend analysis indicates that in the last 39 years, the ISE exhibits a decreasing trend for eastern China and an increasing trend for northern Xinjiang and the eastern Tibetan plateau. The linear trend of the ISE is weak over northeastern China. Based on the simulations of the most recent and comprehensive climate models in the 20th century run, the performance of the current climate models in simulating the Chinese ISE is investigated. The results indicate that, of the 20 models, there are four models that can reasonably reproduce the spatial‐temporal features of the Chinese ISE. Based on these four models’ simulation for the 21st century under A1B and A2 scenarios, the future variability of the Chinese ISE is projected. It is found that global warming will cause the ISE frequency over southern China to decrease, while the ISE over northern China will initially increase and then decrease.

10) ZHANG Ying,WANG Huijun,SUN Jianqi,Helge DRANGE, 2010: Changes in the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index over the Western North Pacific in the SRES A2 Scenario. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27(6), 1246-1258. 摘要

The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index (GPI) was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Paci&macr;c (WNP). The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models&#39; ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models (CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4) found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.</div>

11) YUE Xu,WANG Huijun,LIAO Hong,FAN Ke, 2010: Direct Climatic Effect of Dust Aerosol in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3) . Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27(2), , 230-242. 摘要

Direct climate responses to dust shortwave and longwave radiative forcing (RF) are studied using the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3). The simulated RF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is &iexcl;0.45 W m&iexcl;2 in the solar spectrum and +0.09 W m&iexcl;2 in the thermal spectrum on a global average. The magnitude of surface RF is larger than the TOA forcing, with global mean shortwave forcing of &iexcl;1.76 W m&iexcl;2 and longwave forcing of +0.31 W m&iexcl;2. As a result, dust aerosol causes the absorption of 1.1 W m&iexcl;2 in the atmosphere. The RF of dust aerosol is predicted to lead to a surface cooling of 0.5 K over the Sahara Desert and Arabian Peninsula. In the meantime, the upper troposphere is predicted to become warmer because of the absorption by dust. These changes in temperature lead to a more stable atmosphere, which results in increases in surface humidity. The upward sensible and latent heat &deg;uxes at the surface are reduced, largely balancing the surface energy loss caused by the backscattering and absorption of dust aerosol. Precipitation is predicted to decrease moderately on a global scale.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

12) ZHU Yali,WANG Huijun, 2010: The Relationship between the Aleutian Low and the Australian Summer Monsoon at Interannual Time Scales. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27(1), 177-184. 摘要

The relationship between the boreal winter (December, January, February) Aleutian Low (AL) and the simultaneous Australian summer monsoon (ASM) is explored in this study. A significant correlation is found between the North Pacific index (NPI) and ASM index, the bulk of which is attributed to the significant correlation after late 1970s. Significant differences in precipitation and outgoing long-wave radiation between typical negative and positive NPI years appear over the ASM area. A regression analysis of the circulation pattern against the NPI during the three months is performed separately. We propose that the NPI is related with the ASM circulation possibly through the changes in the upper level westerly jet. In a typical negative NPI (strong Aleutian Low) year, the jet is greatly reinforced and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the south is thus excited, from which the easterly wind anomalies &deg;owing into the ASM region emanate. Further, strong sinking motion over the northern entrance region of the jet is enhanced, and the local Hadley circulation anomaly between the ASM region and the coast of East Asia is strengthened. In this way, anomalous upward motion over the ASM area can thus be strengthened, and the convective activity intensified. Then the monsoon rainfall over ASM area is increased. An \asymmetric&quot; connection between AL and the monsoon is found in this study.</div>

13) ANG Jun and WANG Huijun, 2010: The Relationship between Total Ozone and Local Climate at Kunming Using Dobson and TOMS Data. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 3(4), 207-212. 摘要

This paper uses Dobson spectrometer total ozone data, Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data and radiosonde reports from Kunming, which is located in southwest China, from 1980 to 2008 to analyze the total ozone-climate relationship. The total ozone decadal long-term trend and abrupt change were studied using enhanced Dobson data whose missing data were amended by the TOMS data. Stepwise linear regression was used for the selection of the key factors that influence total ozone, including temperatures, geopotential heights, depressions of the dew point, wind velocities, and total solar radiation. The relationship between the selected factors and total ozone was analyzed using the methods of stepwise regression and partial least squares regression(PLSR). Results showed that although the PLSR method was slightly better and more reasonable to study the relationship than stepwise regression, while the two regression results were only slightly different. It was also suggested that local climate, especially local circulation and temperature, were important for the variations in total ozone, and the local climate could almost linearly explain 80% of the variance of total ozone. The relationship also indicated that the abrupt change of total ozone in the year 1994 may be related to abrupt local climate change.</div>

14) Wang Tao, WANG Huijun, and Jiang Dabang, 2010: Mid-Holocene East Asian summer climate as simulated by the PMIP2 models. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 288, 93-102. 摘要

In the present study, datasets derived from twelve coupled ocean&ndash;atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase two were used to analyze the East Asian summer climate during the mid-Holocene (about 6000 calendar years ago). On the whole, the OAGCMs reproduced warmer and wetter summer climate conditions in East Asia during the mid-Holocene. The multimodel ensemble showed that in East Asia, the regionally-averaged summer surface air temperature (SAT) increased by 0.89 &deg;C, summer precipitation was 5.8% higher, and an obviously strengthened southerly wind corresponded to a strong summer monsoon in the mid-Holocene when compared to preindustrial levels. The data-model comparison in China reveals a good agreement between the OAGCMs&#39; results and the reconstructed changes in the summer SAT in East China during the mid-Holocene. In North China, the simulated SAT anomalies are 0.5 &deg;C lower overall than reconstruction. In contrast, the OAGCMs fail to capture the strongest warming in the southern Qinghai&ndash;Tibetan Plateau. On the other hand, the simulated precipitation agrees well with proxy data except for in the central parts of China, where the simulated summer precipitation disagrees in sign with reconstruction. In addition, there is a large spread among the simulations, particularly over and around the Qinghai&ndash;Tibetan Plateau, and inter-model discrepancies arelarger for precipitation than for SAT as a whole.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

15) Yu Entao, Wang Huijun, and Sun Jianqi, 2010: A Quick Report on a Dynamical Downscaling Simulation over China Using the Nested Model. tmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 3, 325-329. 摘要 PDF


16) Sun, J.Q., H.J. Wang, W. Yuan, and H.P. Chen, 2010: Spatial‐temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115,D16110, doi:10.1029/2009JD013541. 摘要

The statistical spatial‐temporal features of the intense snowfall event (ISE) in China<br /> are investigated over the period of 1962&ndash;2000. The results indicate that eastern China, northern Xinjiang, the eastern Tibetan plateau, and northeastern China are four key regions for the ISE, with more frequency and strong variability. Annual cycle analysis shows the ISE exhibits a unimodal distribution with maximum frequency at winter months for eastern China, a bimodal distribution with maximum frequency at early winter and spring months for northern Xinjiang and northeastern China, and a bimodal distribution with maximum frequency at autumn and spring months for the eastern Tibetan plateau. Linear trend analysis indicates that in the last 39 years, the ISE exhibits a decreasing trend for eastern China and an increasing trend for northern Xinjiang and the eastern Tibetan plateau. The linear trend of the ISE is weak over northeastern China. Based on the simulations of the most recent and comprehensive climate models in the 20th century run, the performance of the current climate models in simulating the Chinese ISE is investigated. The results indicate that, of the 20 models, there are four models that can reasonably reproduce the spatial‐temporal features of the Chinese ISE. Based on these four models&rsquo; simulation for the 21st century under A1B and A2 scenarios, the future variability of the Chinese ISE is projected. It is found that global warming will cause the ISE frequency over southern China to decrease, while the ISE over northern China will initially increase and then decrease.

17) Zhu, Y. L., and H. J. Wang, 2010: The relationship between the Aleutian Low and the Australian summer monsoon at interannual time scales. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27, 177-184. 摘要 PDF

The relationship between the boreal winter (December, January, February) Aleutian Low (AL) and the simultaneous Australian summer monsoon (ASM) is explored in this study. A signi&macr;cant correlation is found between the North Paci&macr;c index (NPI) and ASM index, the bulk of which is attributed to the significant correlation after late 1970s. Significant differences in precipitation and outgoing long-wave radiation between typical negative and positive NPI years appear over the ASM area. A regression analysis of the circulation pattern against the NPI during the three months is performed separately. We propose that the NPI is related with the ASM circulation possibly through the changes in the upper level westerly jet. In a typical negative NPI (strong Aleutian Low) year, the jet is greatly reinforced and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the south is thus excited, from which the easterly wind anomalies flowing into the ASM region emanate. Further, strong sinking motion over the northern entrance region of the jet is enhanced, and the local Hadley circulation anomaly between the ASM region and the coast of East Asia is strengthened. In this way, anomalous upward motion over the ASM area can thus be strengthened, and the convective activity intensified. Then the monsoon rainfall over ASM area is increased. An asymmetric connection between AL and the monsoon is found in this study.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100319386.pdf



18) 陈晓丽,沈学顺,陈活泼, 2010: 陆面过程对2007年淮河流域强降水数值预报的影响分析 . 热带气象学报, 26(6), 667-679. 摘要

基于 GRAPES 中尺度数值天气预报模式,研究了不同复杂程度陆面过程和不同土壤初始条件对2007 年中国夏季淮河流域降水数值预报的影响。重点分析了下垫面非均匀性对造成我国夏季强降水的中小尺度对流系统的启动和发展的影响,探讨了中小尺度对流发生发展中陆气相互作用的可能影响。对2007 年7 月8 日发生在淮河流域的一次对流过程采用两组敏感性试验进行研究,结果表明对流启动对陆面过程有很强的敏感性。Noah 陆面模式能合理地模拟出对流的启动,而Slab 陆面模式模拟的对流会延迟1~2 小时,这与Noah 陆面模式能合理描述地表感、潜热通量有关。GLDAS 初始土壤资料能更加合理地描述实际土壤温湿的分布状况,有利于更加准确地模拟出对流降水的启动和分布位置。另外,对2007 年7 月淮河流域的持续性强降水天气过程进行了对比模拟,研究表明:不同复杂程度陆面过程对连续强降水数值预报有明显的影响。使用Noah 陆面模式能提高对强降水预报的能力,而且随着模式分辨率的提高,降水的TS 评分也在提高,Noah 的TS 评分总体上高于Slab。

19) WANG Jun and WANG Hui-Jun, 2010: The Relationship between Total Ozone and Local Climate at Kunming Using Dobson and TOMS Data. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 3(4), 207-212. 摘要

<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;">This paper uses Dobson spectrometer total&nbsp;</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: STHeiti; font-size: 14px;">ozone data, Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data and radiosonde reports from Kunming, which is located in southwest China, from 1980 to 2008 to analyze the total ozone-climate relationship. The total ozone decadal long-term trend and abrupt change were studied using enhanced Dobson data whose missing data were amended by the TOMS data. Stepwise linear regression was used for the selection of the key factors that influence total ozone, including temperatures, geopotential heights, depressions of the dew point, wind velocities, and total solar radiation. The relationship between the selected factors and total ozone was analyzed using the methods of stepwise regression and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Results showed that although the PLSR method was slightly better and more reasonable to study the relationship than stepwise regression, while the two regression results were only slightly different. It was also suggested that local climate, especially local circulation and temperature, were important for the variations in total ozone, and the local climate could almost linearly explain 80% of&nbsp;the variance of total ozone. The relationship also indicated that the abrupt change of total ozone in the year 1994 may be related to abrupt local climate change.</span>

20) Zonghu Liao, Yang Hong, Jun Wang , etc., 2010: Prototyping an experimental early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing and geospatial datasets. Landslides, 7, 317-324. 摘要

Abstract An early warning system has been developed to predict rainfall-induced shallow landslides over Java Island, Indonesia. The prototyped early warning system integrates three major compo- nents: (1) a susceptibility mapping and hotspot identification component based on a land surface geospatial database (topo- graphical information, maps of soil properties, and local landslide inventory, etc.); (2) a satellite-based precipitation monitoring system (http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) and a precipitation forecasting model (i.e., Weather Research Forecast); and (3) a physically based, rainfall-induced landslide prediction model SLIDE. The system utilizes the modified physical model to calculate a factor of safety that accounts for the contribution of rainfall infiltration and partial saturation to the shear strength of the soil in topographically complex terrains. In use, the land-surface &ldquo;where&rdquo; information will be integrated with the &ldquo;when&rdquo; rainfall triggers by the landslide prediction model to predict potential slope failures as a function of time and location. In this system, geomorphologic data are primarily based on 30-m Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data, digital elevation model (DEM), and 1-km soil maps. Precipitation forcing comes from both satellite-based, real-time National Aeronautics and Space Admin- istration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model forecasts. The system&rsquo;s prediction performance has been evaluated using a local landslide inventory, and results show that the system successfully predicted landslides in correspondence to the time of occurrence of the real landslide events. Integration of spatially distributed remote sensing precipitation products and in-situ datasets in this prototype system enables us to further develop a regional, early warning tool in the future for predicting rainfall-induced landslides in Indonesia.

21) Zhang Y., H. J. Wang, J. Q. Sun, H. Drange,, 2010: Changes in the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index Over the Western North Pacific in the SRES A2 Scenario. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27(6), 1246-1258. 摘要

he Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index (GPI) was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP). The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models&rsquo; ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models (CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4) found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.

22) 张颖, 王会军, 2010, 2010: 全球变暖情景下西北太平洋地区台风活动背景场气候变化的预估. 气象学报, 68(4), 539-549. 摘要


23) 王会军, 张颖, 郎咸梅, , 2010: 论短期气候预测的对象问题. 气候与环境研究, 15(3), 225-228. 摘要


24) Wang H. J. and Y. Zhang, , 2010: Model Projections of East Asia Summer Climate under the “Free Arctic” Scenario. Atmospheric and Oceanic Letters, 3(3), 176-180. 摘要


25) Yang Meixue, Nelson F., Shiklomanov N., Guo Donglin, 2010: Permafrost degradation and its environmental effects on the Tibetan Plateau: A review of recent research. Earth-Science Reviews, 103, 31–44. 摘要 PDF


26) 郭东林, 杨梅学, 2010: SHAW模式对青藏高原中部季节冻土区土壤温、湿度的模拟. 高原气象, 29, 1369–1377. 摘要 PDF


2009

1) 王会军, 王涛, 姜大膀, 富元海, 2009: 我国气候变化将比模式预期的小吗?. 第四纪研究, 29, 1011-1014. 摘要

从当今国际上不同的气候系统模式模拟的全新世大暖期和末次盛冰期我国气候变化量级和复原资料结果的对比,以及从目前气候变化的趋势(包括温室气体、气温、 海洋温度、海平面高度、冰川等),来评述我国区域气候未来变化的量级。从以上两个方面的情况看,我国区域的未来气候变化量级可能比现有模式预估的还要大。 文章最后讨论了我国的气候变化脆弱区以及关键的气候变化要素问题。

2) Wang A. , T. J. Bohn, S. P. Mahanama, R. D. Koster, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2009: Multimodel ensemble reconstruction of drought over the continental United States. J. Climate, 22, 2694-2712. 摘要


3) Wang A.and X. Zeng, 2009: Improving the treatment of the vertical snow burial fraction over short vegetation in the NCAR CLM3. Adv. Atmo. Sci, 26, 877-886. 摘要


4) Huijun Wang and Ke Fan, 2009: A New Scheme for Improving the Seasonal Prediction of Summer Precipitation Anomalies. Weather and Forecasting, 24, 548–554. 摘要

A new scheme is developed to improve the seasonal prediction of summer precipitation in the East Asian and western Pacific region. The scheme is applied to the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) results. The new scheme is designed to consider both model predictions and observed spatial patterns of historical &lsquo;&lsquo;analog years.&rsquo;&rsquo; In this paper, the anomaly pattern correlation coefficient (ACC) between the prediction and the observation, as well as the root-meansquare error, is used to measure the prediction skill. For the prediction of summer precipitation in East Asia and the western Pacific (0&ndash;40N, 80&ndash;130E), the prediction skill for the six model ensemble hindcasts for the years of 1979&ndash;2001 was increased to 0.22 by using the new scheme from0.12 for the original scheme. Allmodels were initiated in May and were composed of nine member predictions, and all showed improvement when applying the newscheme.The skill levelsof the predictions for the sixmodels increased from0.08, 0.08, 0.01, 0.14, -0.07, and 0.07 for the original scheme to 0.11, 0.14, 0.10, 0.22, 0.04, and 0.13, respectively, for the new scheme. <p>&nbsp;</p> </div>

5) Ke Fan and Huijun Wang, 2009: A New Approach to Forecasting Typhoon Frequency over the Western North Pacific. WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 24, 74-986. 摘要

This paper presents a new approach for forecasting the typhoon frequency of the western North Pacific (WNP). The year-to-year increase or decrease in typhoon frequency is first forecasted to yield a net typhoon frequency prediction. Five key predictors for the year-to-year increment in the number of typhoons in the WNP have been identified, and a forecast model is established using a multilinear regression method based on data taken from 1965 to 2001. Using the forecast model, a hindcast of the typhoon frequency of the WNP during 2002&ndash;07 is made. The model exhibited a reasonably close fit for the period 1965&ndash;2007, including the larger anomalies in 1997 and 1998. It also accounted for the smaller variability of the typhoon frequency of the WNP during the validation period 2002&ndash;07 with an average root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.3 (2.85) during 2002&ndash;07 (1965&ndash;2001).The cross-validation test of the prediction model shows that the new approach and the prediction model demonstrate better prediction skill when compared to the models established based on typhoon frequency rather than the typhoon frequency increment. Thus, this new approach has the potential to improve the operational forecasting skill for typhoon frequency in the WNP.</div>

6) Wang Huijun, and Jianqi Sun, 2009: Variability of Northeast China River Break-up Date. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26(4), 701-706. 摘要

This paper investigates the variability of the break-up dates of the rivers in Northeast China from their icebound states for the period of 1957&ndash;2005 and explores some potential explanatory mechanisms. Results show that the break-up of the two major rivers (the Heilongjiang River and Songhuajiang River)was about four days earlier, and their freeze-up was about 4&ndash;7 days delayed, during 1989&ndash;2005 as compared to 1971&ndash;1987. This interdecadal variation is evidently associated with the warming trend over the past 50 years. In addition, the break-up and freeze-up dates have large interannual variability, with a standard deviation of about 10&ndash;15 days. The break-up date is primarily determined by the January&ndash;February&ndash;March mean surface air temperature over the Siberian-Northeast China region via changes in the melting rate, ice thickness, and snow cover over the ice cover. The interannual variability of the break-up date is also significantly connected with the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), with a correlation coefficient of 0.35&ndash;0.55 based on the data from four stations along the two rivers. This relationship is attributed to the fact that the NAM can modulate the East Asian winter monsoon circulation and Siberian-Northeast China surface air temperature in January&ndash;February&ndash;March.</div>

7) 王会军,王涛,姜大膀,富元海, 2009: 我国气候变化将比模式预期的小吗?. 第四纪研究, 29(6), 1011-1014. 摘要

<div id="abstc_421" style="display: block">从当今国际上不同的气候系统模式模拟的全新世大暖期和末次盛冰期我国气候变化量级和复原资料结果的对比,以及从目前气候变化的趋势(包括温室气体、气温、海洋温度、海平面高度、冰川等),来评述我国区域气候未来变化的量级。从以上两个方面的情况看,我国区域的未来气候变化量级可能比现有模式预估的还要大。文章最后讨论了我国的气候变化脆弱区以及关键的气候变化要素问题。</div>

8) Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang and Wei Yuan, 2009: Role of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature in the decadal change of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 114, D20110, doi:10.1029/2009JD012395. 摘要

Recent observational studies have shown that the southern center of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) shifted eastward after the late 1970s. In this study, this phenomenon and its causes are further explored. It is found that the decadal spatial shift of the SNAO southern center is related to the decadal variability of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (TASST). In the past half century, the TASST experienced an abrupt change around the late 1970s, with a rapid warming in the recent 2 decades. Thus in the period after the late 1970s when the TASST is relatively warmer, the TASST released more energy into the atmosphere, then stimulated strong convection over the tropical Atlantic, and further excited anomalous wave-like patterns. This strengthened the circulation in the region of the Mediterranean Sea, namely the east part of the SNAO southern center, consequently leading to an eastward shift of the SNAO southern center. Meanwhile, in the period before the late 1970s when the TASST is relatively cooler, the TASST released less energy into the atmosphere, so its impact on the overlying atmosphere was significantly weakened and confined to the lower-level atmosphere of the tropical Atlantic. Thus the TASST possibly did not influence the variability of the SNAO southern center, and the SNAO pattern exhibited a traditional distribution with two centers over the North Atlantic.</div>

9) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2009: How the Best Models Project the Future Precipitation Change in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26(4), 773-782. 摘要 PDF

Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three best models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation in China makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. All the three scenarios experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in China in the 21st century. However, the projected summer precipitation in China demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. The projected increase in precipitation in South China is significant and persistent, as well as in North China. Meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century, the region of Northeast China is projected to be much drier than the present. But, this situation changes and the precipitation intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%-20.4% at the end of the 21st century. The region of the Xinjiang Province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%-3.6% at the end of the 21st century. There is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. A high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional precipitation change in some parts of China is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the B1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the A2 scenario.

10) Zhu, Y. L., 2009: The Antarctic Oscillation-East Asian Summer Monsoon Connections in NCEP-1 and ERA-40. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26, 707-716. 摘要 PDF

Connections between the spring Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in two reanalysis datasets&mdash;NCEP-1 (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1) and ERA-40 (ECMWF 40-year Reanalysis)&mdash;are investigated in this study. Both show significant correlation between AAO and EASM rainfall over the Yangtze River valley, especially after about 1985. Though ERA-40 shows weaker anomalous signals connecting AAO and EASM over southern high latitudes than NCEP-1, both datasets reveal similar connecting patterns between them. A wave-train-like pattern appears in the upper levels, from southern high latitudes through east of Australia and from the Maritime Continent to East Asia. In positive AAO years, the cross equatorial southeasterly flow over the Maritime Continent in the lower levels is strengthened, the specific humidity of the whole atmosphere over East Asia increases, and convective activity is enhanced; thus the summer rainfall over East Asia increases. The spring AAO-EASM connection may be better represented in ERA-40.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100227851.pdf



11) 于恩涛,向伟玲,师庆东,常顺利,吕光辉, 2009: 艾比湖流域大气水汽时空分布特征及收支. 干旱区地理, 32, . 摘要


12) Jiang, D., Y. Zhang, and J. Sun, , 2009: Ensemble projection of 1–3°C warming in China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 54(18), 3326–3334. 摘要


13) 郭东林, 杨梅学, 屈鹏, 等, 2009: 能量和水分循环过程研究:回顾与探讨. 冰川冻土, 31, 1116–1126. 摘要 PDF


14) 屈鹏, 郭东林, 2009: 祁连山东部近50年气候特征变化分析. 干旱区资源与环境, 23, 66–70. 摘要 PDF


合作成员