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1) Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang and Wei Yuan, 2009: Role of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature in the decadal change of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 114, D20110, doi:10.1029/2009JD012395. 摘要

Recent observational studies have shown that the southern center of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) shifted eastward after the late 1970s. In this study, this phenomenon and its causes are further explored. It is found that the decadal spatial shift of the SNAO southern center is related to the decadal variability of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (TASST). In the past half century, the TASST experienced an abrupt change around the late 1970s, with a rapid warming in the recent 2 decades. Thus in the period after the late 1970s when the TASST is relatively warmer, the TASST released more energy into the atmosphere, then stimulated strong convection over the tropical Atlantic, and further excited anomalous wave-like patterns. This strengthened the circulation in the region of the Mediterranean Sea, namely the east part of the SNAO southern center, consequently leading to an eastward shift of the SNAO southern center. Meanwhile, in the period before the late 1970s when the TASST is relatively cooler, the TASST released less energy into the atmosphere, so its impact on the overlying atmosphere was significantly weakened and confined to the lower-level atmosphere of the tropical Atlantic. Thus the TASST possibly did not influence the variability of the SNAO southern center, and the SNAO pattern exhibited a traditional distribution with two centers over the North Atlantic.</div>

2) Chen, H.P., and J.Q. Sun, 2009: How the Best Models Project the Future Precipitation Change in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26(4), 773-782. 摘要 PDF

Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three best models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation in China makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. All the three scenarios experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in China in the 21st century. However, the projected summer precipitation in China demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. The projected increase in precipitation in South China is significant and persistent, as well as in North China. Meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century, the region of Northeast China is projected to be much drier than the present. But, this situation changes and the precipitation intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%-20.4% at the end of the 21st century. The region of the Xinjiang Province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%-3.6% at the end of the 21st century. There is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. A high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional precipitation change in some parts of China is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the B1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the A2 scenario.

3) Zhu, Y. L., 2009: The Antarctic Oscillation-East Asian Summer Monsoon Connections in NCEP-1 and ERA-40. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26, 707-716. 摘要 PDF

Connections between the spring Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in two reanalysis datasets&mdash;NCEP-1 (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1) and ERA-40 (ECMWF 40-year Reanalysis)&mdash;are investigated in this study. Both show significant correlation between AAO and EASM rainfall over the Yangtze River valley, especially after about 1985. Though ERA-40 shows weaker anomalous signals connecting AAO and EASM over southern high latitudes than NCEP-1, both datasets reveal similar connecting patterns between them. A wave-train-like pattern appears in the upper levels, from southern high latitudes through east of Australia and from the Maritime Continent to East Asia. In positive AAO years, the cross equatorial southeasterly flow over the Maritime Continent in the lower levels is strengthened, the specific humidity of the whole atmosphere over East Asia increases, and convective activity is enhanced; thus the summer rainfall over East Asia increases. The spring AAO-EASM connection may be better represented in ERA-40.


4) 于恩涛,向伟玲,师庆东,常顺利,吕光辉, 2009: 艾比湖流域大气水汽时空分布特征及收支. 干旱区地理, 32, . 摘要

5) Jiang, D., Y. Zhang, and J. Sun, , 2009: Ensemble projection of 1–3°C warming in China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 54(18), 3326–3334. 摘要

6) 郭东林, 杨梅学, 屈鹏, 等, 2009: 能量和水分循环过程研究:回顾与探讨. 冰川冻土, 31, 1116–1126. 摘要 PDF

7) 屈鹏, 郭东林, 2009: 祁连山东部近50年气候特征变化分析. 干旱区资源与环境, 23, 66–70. 摘要 PDF

8) 屈鹏, 杨梅学, 郭东林, 等, 2009: RegCM3模式对青藏高原夏季气温和降水的模拟. 高原气象, 28, 738–744. 摘要 PDF

9) 郭东林, 杨梅学, 李敏, 等, 2009: 青藏高原中部季节冻土区地表能量通量的模拟分析. 高原气象, 28, 978–987. 摘要 PDF


1) 林朝晖,刘辉志,谢正辉,王爱慧,刘少锋, 2008: 陆面水文过程研究进展. 大气科学, 32, 935-949. 摘要

2) Ning Zeng, Yihui Ding, Jiahua Pan, Huijun Wang, Jay Gregg, 2008: Climate Change—the Chinese Challenge. Science, 318, 730-731. 摘要

<div id="abstc_366" style="display: block">In 2006, China&rsquo;s carbon dioxide emission rate reached 1.6 GtC (gigatons of carbon or 1015 g carbon) per year (see chart, below) (1&ndash;3). Economic growth is projected to continue at higher than 7% per year; at this rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would quadruple in 20 years. The associated high CO2 emission rate would substantially affect the goal of avoiding dangerous climate change as set by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The conflict between economic development and keeping atmospheric greenhouse gases at a manageable level poses one of the greatest challenges of this century.</div>

3) 祝亚丽,王会军, 2008: 基于IPCC AR4 耦合模式的南极涛动和北极涛动的模拟及未来变化预估. 气象学报, 66, 993-1004[Zhu, Y. L., H. J. Wang, 2010: The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the IPCC AR4 Coupled Models, Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 24(2), 176-188.]. 摘要 PDF

本文评估了参加政府间气候变化委员会第4次评估报告 (IPCC AR4) 的耦合模式对南极涛动和北极涛动的模拟能力。分析了24个模式对1970-1999年南极涛动和北极涛动的模拟效能,并与两套再分析资料ERA-40 和NCEP-1 进行了对比分析。结果表明,模式的模拟能力具有一定的季节依赖性,冬季模拟能力最好。大多数模式对南极涛动空间结构和时间序列趋势的模拟好于北极涛动。根据Taylor图选出具有较好模拟能力的模式并做集合分析,发现经过选取的模式集合可以明显改善模式的模拟能力。分析SRES A1B情景下的南极涛动和北极涛动的模拟、预估结果表明:1970-2099年,南极涛动和北极涛动指数均呈持续上升趋势,北极涛动指数增长略显平稳。相对于1970-1999 年、2060-2089 年两半球的海平面气压场均呈现极区气压降低、中纬度气压升高的形态,同样表明南、北极涛动在后一时段更强。因此,在气候变暖背景下,南、北极涛动将持续增强,21世纪中期的臭氧恢复可能不会显著影响这种趋势。

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100120236.pdf (中文版)
http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100151568.pdf (英文版)

4) Yang Meixue, Yao Tandong, Nelson F., Shiklomanov N., Guo Donglin, Wang Chenghai, 2008: Snow cover and depth of freeze-thaw on the Tibetan Plateau: a case study from 1997 to 1998. Physical Geography, 29, 208–221. 摘要 PDF

5) 郭东林, 杨梅学, 马明国, 等, 2008: 基于组件式GIS技术的中国地形图分幅表查询系统. 遥感技术与应用, 23, 592–599. 摘要 PDF


1) 曹晓岗,丁金才,叶其欣,汪君,邱黎华, 2007: 利用水汽总量资料诊断入梅时间的方法. 应用气象学报, 18(6), 791-801. 摘要

链接: http://qk.cams.cma.gov.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=200706121&flag=1



梅雨期是江淮流域从春季到夏季一个重要的过渡时期。传统诊断入梅的方法主要根据雨日和温度及副热带高压位置等来确定。由于雨日的不连续,天气形势的多变,常会引起诊断入梅日期的分歧。利用长江三角洲地区地基GPS网所反演的连续的大气水汽总量(GPS/PWV)资料详细分析了长江三角洲地区2002—2005年入梅情况,发现GPS/PWV资料可以反映出入梅前后大气中水汽发生显著季节性跳跃的特征,总结出利用大气中水汽变化特征来诊断入梅时间的 方法(PWV方法)。采用1980—2000年的历史探空资料计算的大气水汽总量(PWV)资料,对该方法进行了检验:21年中有13年的入梅日期与历史上传统方法诊断的入梅日期相吻合;对两种方法诊断的入梅日期相差较大的3年的入梅情况进行的分析表明,PWV方法诊断出的入梅日比原定入梅日更合理。该方法在2006年入梅诊断的应用也得到验证。

2) 王涛, 徐鸣洁, 王良书, 刘绍文, 胡旭芝, 2007: 鄂尔多斯及邻区航磁异常特征及其大地构造意义. 地球物理学报, 50(1), 163-170. 摘要

3) Zeng X.B. and A. Wang, 2007: Consistent parameterization of above-canopy turbulence for sparse and dense canopies in Land Models. J. Hydrometeor, 8, 730-737. 摘要

4) 王会军,孙建奇,范可, 2007: 北太平洋涛动与台风和飓风频次的关系研究. 中国科学(D), 37(7), 966~973. 摘要

研究了北太平洋涛动(NPO)和西太平洋台风及热带大西洋飓风频次的联系. 结果表明, 在1949~1998年这50 a间, NPO和西太平洋台风频次的相关系数是0.37, 而和热带大西洋飓风频次的相关系数是&minus;0.28, 都达到了95%的置信度水平. 进一步的研究揭示: 6~9月NPO的变化和西太平洋及热带大西洋区的纬向风垂直切变幅度、海平面气压以及海表面温度、区域大气辐散辐合等存在显著的关联, 而这些气候环境的变化都和台风及飓风生成与发展的热力或动力过程密切相关. 这就是NPO与台风及飓风频次相联系的原因. 还进一步研究了与NPO有关的大气遥相关以及两个区域大气环流的变化, 以便进一步理解NPO和台风及飓风活动频次的联系. 最后分析了一个海气耦合模式的积分结果, 初步印证了由观测资料所得到的结论.</div>


1) Wang A., X. Zeng, S.S.P, Shen, Q.-C., Zeng, R.E., Dickinson, 2006: Timescales of land surface hydrology. J. Hydrometeor, 7, 868-879. 摘要

2) Wang A. ,X.D.Zeng, X.B.Zeng, 2006: Dynamics and numerical simulations of hydrological vegetation-soil interaction, Computational Physics: Proceeding of the joint conference of ICCP6 and CCP2003. , , 230-233. 摘要

3) Zeng, Q.-C., X.D. Zeng, A. Wang, R. Dickinson, X. Zeng, and S. S. P. Shen, 2006: Models and numerical simulations of atmosphere-vegetation-soil interactions and ecosystem dynamics, Computational Physics: Proceedings of the joint conference of ICCP6 - CCP2003. , 1, 98-109. 摘要

4) 苏明峰,王会军, 2006: 中国气候干湿变率与ENSO的关系及其稳定性. 中国科学(D), 36(10), 951-958. 摘要

利用1951-01~2000-10 中国160 站气温和降水月平均资料, 计算了自修正PDSI 指数. PDSI 指数EOF 分析第一模态空间场分布和1951~2000 年PDSI 指数的变化趋势分布十分相似, 第一模态时间系数反映了空间场随时间的演变情况. 研究发现, EOF 分析所揭示的中国气候干湿变率和ENSO 有着很好的关系. 这种关系表明, 在典型的ENSO 暖状态, 中国大部分地区都偏干, 特别是华北地区更易偏干, 长江以南地区和西北容易偏湿, 而长江中下游地区处于变干和湿的过渡区, 变干或湿不明显. 在典型的ENSO 冷状态则情况相反. 而中国气候干湿变率年际和年代际变化都对应着强El Ni&ntilde;o 事件; 反过来当发生强El Ni&ntilde;o 事件时, 中国气候干湿变率在年际和年代际尺度上有可能发生剧烈变化. 最近20~30 a 中国气候干湿的年代际变化, 特别是华北自20 世纪70 年代末的变干和西北自80 年代中期的变湿, 与ENSO 朝更暖的状态变化及全球变暖有着紧密的联系. 1951~2000 年中国气候干湿变率和ENSO 关系的稳定性分析表明, 中国气候干湿变率和ENSO 之间在3~8 a 变化周期上存着很好的相关关系, 但这种相关关系不稳定, 存在着年代际变化: 1951~1962 和1976~1991 年两个时间段两者相关关系很高, 而在1963~1975 和1992~2000 年两时段内, 两者相关关系较差.</div>

5) Botao Zhou and Huijun Wang, 2006: Relationship between the boreal spring Hadley circulation and the summer precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D16109, doi:10.1029/2005JD0070006. 摘要

The connection between the boreal spring Hadley circulation (HC) and variability of the following summer east Asian atmospheric circulations and precipitation in the Yangtze River valley is investigated through an analysis of the observed data in this study. It is found that there is a significantly positive correlation between HC and the summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valley. This relationship is well supported by the changes of atmospheric general circulation backgrounds and water vapor conditions related to the variation of the preceding boreal spring HC. The summer situations of strengthened western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), intensified South Asian high (SAH), southward located east Asian jet (EAJ) and enhanced water vapor corresponding to strong spring HC provide favorable conditions for increasing the precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and vice versa. The possible mechanism how the boreal spring HC affects summer atmospheric circulations is identified preliminarily in the study. Results show that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea may play an important role in linking the spring HC and summer atmospheric circulations. Spring HC may evoke SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, which&nbsp; can persist from spring to summer and in turn give rise to anomalous east Asian summer monsoon. As a result, summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valley may be influenced.

6) 范可,王会军, 2006: 有关南半球大气环流与东亚气候的关系研究的若干新进展. 大气科学, 30(3), 402-412 . 摘要


7) 王会军,郎咸梅,范可,孙建奇,周广庆, 2006: 关于2006 年西太平洋台风活动频次的气候预测试验. 气候与环境研究, 11(2), 133-137. 摘要

这是首次利用气候模式对我国2006 年夏季西太平洋地区台风活动频次的实时气候预测的报告。根据这个初步的预测试验结果分析, 西太平洋地区夏季(6~10 月) 对流层低层为异常辐散区而高层为异常辐合区, 大气顶向外长波辐射为正距平, 对流活动异常偏弱; 同时, 该地区对流层上下层纬向风的切变幅度异常偏大; 海洋温度的距平值很小。综合这些气候背景条件, 今年西太平洋的台风生成数量将可能比正常年份偏少一些。当然, 由于台风生成发展的复杂性, 这一预测还有不确定性。

8) 王会军,范可, 2006: 南半球对流层上层纬向风与东亚夏季风环流. 科学通报, 51(13), 1595-1600. 摘要

研究了南半球对流层上层纬向风和东亚夏季风在年际变化尺度上的关系, 用150 百帕60&deg;S 和30&deg;S 之间的纬向平均的纬向风差值(ISH)可以很好地代表南半球纬向风的年际变化. 结果发现: ISH 和东亚夏季风环流在年际变化尺度上有非常显著的负相关关系. 研究揭示: 从南半球到热带区域的纬向风的径向遥相关型(主体在东半球)可能是这种关系的主要内在原因. 通过这种遥相关型使得风场和气压场发生改变从而影响东亚夏季风环流; 另外, 与ISH 相关连的欧亚大陆区的异常遥相关波列也是一个重要的机制. 而且ISH 和东亚夏季风环流的关系有同时性, 也有非同时性. 因此这种关系的存在一定意义上也具有预测价值.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

9) 范可,王会军,, 2006: 南极涛动的年际变化及其对东亚冬春季气候的影响. 中国科学(D 辑) 地球科学, 36(4), 385-391. 摘要

研究了南极涛动的年际变化及其对冬春两季东亚气候的影响, 结果表明, 南极涛动强年不利于东亚冬春两季冷空气的活动. 通过平均经圈环流分析发现, 在南极涛动异常年有从南极到北极分布的经向遥相关, 并且该遥相关具有正压的结构. 此遥相关冬季在欧亚地区显著, 春季在太平洋地区显著. 研究还表明, 南半球高纬的平均纬圈西风, 在冬季与欧亚西风有显著的正相关关系, 因而在一定程度上证实了冬季经向遥相关的存在; 在春季, 则与太平洋北美型遥相关有显著的反相关关系. 因此, 局地经向遥相关是冬、春两季中南北半球中高纬大气环流相互作用的一个可能途径.</div>

10) Wang Huijun, 2006: Linkage Between the Northeast Mongolian Precipitation and the Northern Hemisphere Zonal Circulation. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 23(5), 659–664. 摘要

The long-term relationship between the tree-ring-reconstructed annual precipitation in northeastern Mongolia (PRM) and the Northern Hemisphere Zonal Circulation (NHZC)&sect;defined as the normalized zonal mean sea-level pressure at 60N in May-June-July, is examined in this study. A significant correlation coefficient (0.31) was found between the NHZC indices and PRM based on the dataset for the period of 1872&ndash;1995. The mechanisms responsible for the relationship are discussed through analyses of the atmospheric general circulation variability associated with NHZC. It follows that NHZC-related atmospheric circulation variability provides an anomalous southeast flow from the ocean to Northeast Mongolia (northwest flow from Northeast Mongolia to the ocean) in the middle and low troposphere in positive (negative) phase of NHZC, resulting in more (less) water vapor transport to the target region and more (less) precipitation in Northeast Mongolia.</div>

11) 王会军, 范可, 2006: 西北太平洋台风生成频次与南极涛动的关系. 科学通报, 51(24), 2910-2914. 摘要

研究了西北太平洋台风生成频次(WNPTN)和南极涛动(AAO)的关系, 发现6~9月AAO和西北太平洋台风生成频次(WNPTN)具有显著的反相关关系(1949~1998 年期间年际变化的相关系数为 &minus;0.48). 还分析了和AAO的变化相联系的热带西太平洋大气环流和海温的变化, 结果表明: 当AAO处于正位相时, 西北太平洋区纬向风的垂直切变幅度加大, 对流层低层为异常反气旋环流并且涡度异常为负值, 而高层为异常气旋环流并且涡度异常为正值, 海表温度降低, 这些变化均不利于台风生成和发展. 反之亦然.</div>

12) Zhang Zhongshi, Wang H. J., Guo Zhengtang, Jiang Dabang, 2006: What triggers the transition of palaeoenvironmental patterns in China, the Tibetan Plateau uplift or the Paratethys Sea retreat?. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 245, 317-331 . 摘要

Geological research has illustrated the transition of palaeoenvironmental patterns by the earliest Miocene from a planetary-wind-dominant type to a monsoon-dominant type, indicating that the East Asian monsoon became markedly intensified and played a leading role in the East Asian climate. From a modeling point of view, the pioneering research using the reduced number of scenarios had demonstrated that both the Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea retreat were important for understanding the Asian monsoon evolution. However, the sensitivity of the Paratethys retreat to the East Asian climate still needs further studies based on the more detailed scenarios. Thirty numerical experiments under the six Paratethys Sea and the five Tibetan Plateau conditions illustrate the shifts from zonal climate to the monsoon climate in East Asia. The results confirm again that both the Paratethys retreat and the Tibetan plateau uplift play important roles in the formation of the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern, and show that the Paratethys retreat can strengthen the East Asian monsoon and greatly increase humidity and aridity respectively in the monsoon areas and Northwest China, which is similar to the impact of the Tibetan Plateau uplift on the East Asian climate. Furthermore, the fact that the Paratethys Sea retreats to the Turan Plate is found to be the key criterion for the palaeoenvironmental patterns&#39; transition in China. The shrinkage of Paratethys Sea leads to the reconstructions of the pressure system and the atmospheric circulations, which result in the variations of precipitation and the transition of palaeoenvironmental patterns. <p>&nbsp;</p> </div>


1) Zeng X.D., A.Wang, G. Zhao, S.S.P. Shen, X. Zeng, and Q.-C. Zeng, 2005: A dynamic model of grassland and its practice verification. Sciences in China(c), 48, 41-48. 摘要

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2) 曾庆存,曾晓东,王爱慧, 2005: 大气和植被生态及土壤系统水文过程相互作用的一些研究. 大气科学, 29, 7-19. 摘要

3) WANG Huijun, 2005: The Circum-Pacific Teleconnection Pattern in Meridional Wind in the High Troposphere. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 22(3), 463–466. 摘要

The Circum-Pacific Teleconnection Pattern (CPTP) is revealed in the meridional wind in the high troposphere via an emprirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlation analysis on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The CPTP is found to be composed of the North Pacific&ndash;North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), the South Pacific&ndash;South American teleconnection pattern (PSA), and the teleconnection patterns over the tropical western Pacific and the tropical eastern Pacific (or, Central America, or, tropical Atlantic). There is substantial interannual variability of the CPTP and a typical CPTP can be detected in some years. It is speculated that the zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial region in the western and eastern sides of the Pacific may play a role in linking the two hemispheres. The anomalous convection activities in the Tropics are plausible triggering factors for the zonal wind anomalies that are responsible for the composition of the CPTP.</div>

4) Huijun Wang and Ke Fan, 2005: Central-north China precipitation as reconstructed from the Qing dynasty: Signal of the Antarctic Atmospheric Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L24705, doi:10.1029/2005GL024562. 摘要

Based on the long-term Central-north China precipitation (CNCP) time series reconstructed from the Qing Dynasty Official Document, the relationship between CNCP and the Antarctic Atmospheric Oscillation (AAO) in June-July is examined. The analysis yields a (significant) negative correlation of 0.22. The signal of AAO in CNCP is further studied through analyses of the atmospheric general circulation variability related to AAO. It follows that AAO-related variability of convergence and convection over the tropical western Pacific can exert impact on the circulation condition and precipitation in north China (actually, the precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley as well) through atmospheric teleconnection known as the East Asia-Pacific (or Pacific&ndash;Japan) teleconnection wave pattern. There is also an AAO-connected wave train in the vorticity field at high troposphere over Eurasia, providing an anti-cyclonic circulation in central-north China favorable to the decline of precipitation in positive phase of AAO.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

5) 康杜娟,王会军, 2005: 中国北方沙尘暴气候形势的年代际变化. 中国科学(D), 35(11, 1096-1102. 摘要

分析了中国北方沙尘气候的时间变化特征, 重点研究与沙尘气侯的年代际变化相应的冬、春季气候和大气环流异常特征. 文章揭示: 在沙尘活动频繁年代(1956~1970)和稀少年代(1985~1999)冬、春季的气候和大气环流有显著差别. 与前一个年代相比, 在后一个年代里冬季极涡异常加深, 50&deg;N附近的西风增强, 东亚极锋锋区位置偏北, 东亚大槽偏弱; 西伯利亚高压北部及中心强度变弱, 阿留申低压明显升压; 东亚季风强度变弱, 影响中国的冷空气势力减弱, 冬、春季大风天气变少. 同时中国北方广大地区冬季温度显著升高, 西北和内蒙古的沙源地区春季降水明显增多. 研究还发现, 在年际尺度上, 中国北方的沙尘活动频次与前冬的西风指数、北极涛动指数呈显著的负相关, 与冬、春季东亚季风指数呈显著的正相关.</div>

6) 孙建奇,王会军, 2005: 北极涛动与太平洋年代际振荡的关系. 科学通报, 50(15), 1648-1653. 摘要

文中研究了年代际时间尺度上冬季(11~3月)北极涛动与太平洋年代际振荡之间的关系. 结果发现, 北极涛动对于太平洋年代际振荡的变化起着重要的作用. 当北极涛动超前太平洋年代际振荡7~8年的时候, 两者的相关关系最好, 相关系数为0.77. 这种年代际时间尺度上的超前性对太平洋年代际振荡的变化有着很好的预测意义. 回归分析和超前滞后相关的结果表明北极涛动与太平洋年代际振荡耦合的关键可能在于阿留申低压: 强的北极涛动导致阿留申低压加深, 进而通过北半球中纬度的海气相互作用影响到太平洋年代际振荡, 反之亦然。

7) 王会军, 2005: 来自大气内部的季节气候可预测性初探. 大气科学, 29(1), 64-70. 摘要


8) 姜大膀,王会军, 2005: 20世纪后期东亚夏季风年代际减弱的自然属性. 科学通报, 50(20), 2256-2262. 摘要

文中使用1948~2002年美国国家环境预测中心/大气研究中心的再分析资料, 通过计算呈现了始于20世纪60年代中期的东亚夏季风年代际尺度减弱事实、以及东亚夏季风系统在20世纪60年代中期和70年代中后期发生的两次年代际突变事件. 而后, 基于政府间气候变化专门委员会资料分发中心提供的SRES A2温室气体和气溶胶排放情景下六套全球海气耦合气候模式的数值模拟结果, 从定性的角度上揭示了此次东亚夏季风年代际衰减过程与20世纪后期人类活动引发的全球变暖之间没有明显的联系, 应该为一次自然的气候变化过程. 模式结果还显示, 如果21世纪温室效应在20世纪后期的基础上进一步加剧, 东亚夏季风系统可能会受此影响而趋于增强.

9) Jiang Dabang, Wang Huijun, Ding Zhongli, Lang Xianmei,Drange Helge, 2005: Modeling the middle Pliocene climate with a global atmospheric general circulation model. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 110, D14107. 摘要

A new climate simulation for the middle Pliocene (ca. 3 Ma BP) is performed by a global grid-point atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP AGCM) with boundary conditions provided by the U. S. Geological Survey&rsquo;s Pliocene Research, Interpretations, and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) group. It follows that warmer and slightly wetter conditions dominated at the middle&nbsp; Pliocene with a globally annual mean surface temperature increase of 2.60C, and an&nbsp; increase in precipitation of 4.0% relative to today. At the middle Pliocene, globally annual terrestrial warming was 1.86C, with stronger warming toward high latitudes. Annual precipitation enhanced notably at high latitudes, with the augment reaching 33.5% (32.5%) of the present value at 60&ndash;90N (60&ndash;90S). On the contrary, drier conditions were registered over most parts at 0&ndash;30N, especially in much of East Asia and the northern tropical Pacific. In addition, both boreal summer and winter monsoon significantly&nbsp; decreased in East Asia at the middle Pliocene. It is indicated that the IAPAGCM simulation&nbsp; is generally consistent with the results from other atmospheric models and agrees well with available paleoclimatic reconstructions in East Asia. Additionally, it is further revealed that the PRISM warmer sea surface temperature and reduced sea ice extent are main factors determining the middle Pliocene climate. The simulated climatic responses arising from the PRISM reconstructed vegetation and continental ice sheet cannot be neglected on a regional scale at mid to high latitudes (like over Greenland and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and around the circum-Antarctic) but have little influence on global climate.</div>


1) 左瑞亭,张铭,张东凌,王爱慧,曾庆存, 2004: 21层大气环流模式IAPAGCM-III. 大气科学, 28, 659-674. 摘要

2) Fan Ke, and Wang Hui-Jun, 2004: Antarctic oscillation and the dust weather frequency in North China. Geophys. Res. Lett, 31, L10201, doi:10.1029/2004GL019465. 摘要

The linkage between the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) to the dust weather frequency (DWF) in North China is addressed. Here DWF denotes the number of days of dust weather events including dust haze, blowing dust and dust storm in one year. It is found that the interannual variation of AAO plays a significant role in the dust-related atmospheric circulation during boreal spring. AAO and DWF correlate well, with positive AAO tending to decrease DWF in North China. Two possible mechanisms for the AAO-DWF coupling are identified, one is related to a meridional teleconnection pattern; the other is related to a regional circulation pattern over the Pacific Ocean.

3) Feng Xue, Huijun Wang and Jinhai He, 2004: Interannual variability of Mascarene high and Australian high and their influences on East Asian summer monsoon. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 82(4),, 1173-1186. 摘要

Based on the reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR and other observational data, interannual variability of the Mascarene high (MH) and Australian high (AH) during boreal summer from 1970 to 1999 is examined. It is shown that interannual variability of MH is dominated by the Antarctic oscillation (AAO), and MH tends to be intensified with the development of the circumpolar lows in high southern latitudes. On the other hand, AH is correlated with AAO as well as El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and tends to be intensified when El Nino occurs.<br /> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Since AH, especially MH, is positively correlated with AAO, composite analysis on the difference between the positive and negative MH is performed to reveal the physical mechanism responsible for the East Asian summer monsoon anomalies associated with AAO. The result shows that, with the intensification of MH, the Somali jet, and Indian monsoon westerlies, tend to be strengthened. Accordingly, AH and the associated cross-equatorial flow, become stronger whereas the trade wind over the tropical western and middle Pacific become weaker. In association with the above changes, convective activities near the Philippine Sea are largely suppressed, as a consequence, exciting a negative convection anomaly, and a Rossby wave train from East Asia via the North Pacific to the western coast of North America (a negative Pacific-Japan pattern). Corresponding to the negative Pacific-Japan pattern, an anomalous rainfall pattern appears in East Asia.
Correlation analysis between AAO and sea level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential height further indicates that AAO is a strong signal influencing the climate anomaly in both hemispheres, including East Asia. Due to the seasonal persistence, AAO and the related MH and AH in boreal spring, may provide some useful information for the East Asian summer monsoon prediction. With the intensification of MH during boreal spring through summer, the Meiyu/Baiu rainfall from the Yangtze River valley to the Japan Islands tends to increase, while less rainfall is found outside of this region. In contrast with MH, the effect of AH on summer rainfall is confined to southern China.

4) 王会军,徐永福,周天军,陈洪滨,王普才,陆日宇,张美根, 2004: 大气科学:一个充满活力的前沿科学. 地球科学进展, 19(4), 525-532. 摘要



1) 林朝晖,张铭,梁丹青,王爱慧,张东凌,曾庆存, 2003: 分块地形坐标大气环流模式动力框架及其积分结果分析. 科学通报, z1, 25-32 . 摘要

2) Jiang Dabang, Wang Huijun, Helge Drange, and Lang Xianmei, 2003: Last glacial maximum over China: Sensitivities of climate to paleovegetation and Tibetan ice-sheet. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D3), 4102, doi:10.1029/2002JD002167. 摘要

With the boundary conditions appropriate for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), including ice sheets, sea surface temperatures, sea-ice distribution, atmospheric CO2 concentration, the Earth&rsquo;s orbital parameters, topography, and coastline, the atmospheric general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP-AGCM) computes colder and drier conditions than for present day. Global annual-average surface temperature decreased by 5.3&deg;C, and terrestrial precipitation was down by 29%. It is shown that IAP-AGCM LGM simulation compares favorably to results from other AGCMs, and/but generally shows a weak terrestrial cooling when compared to paleoclimatic reconstructions in tropics. The 21 ka (ka: thousands of years ago) vegetation reconstruction is introduced into the model to study the regional climate response to the changes in vegetation and associated soil characteristics over China. The additional cooling due to these two changes reduces, to a certain degree, the model-data discrepancies. In addition, under the precondition of continental ice existing over part of the Tibetan Plateau at the LGM, the authors examine the regional climate response to the continental ice. It follows that the glacial-age environment over the Tibetan Plateau is a very important factor for 21 ka climate simulation in East Asia.

3) 王会军, 薛峰, 2003: 索马里急流的年际变化及其对半球间水汽输送和东亚夏季降水的影响. 地球物理学报, 46(1), 18-25. 摘要

利用美国国家环境预报中心和美国国家大气科学研究中心(NCEP/ NCAR) 再分析月平均气候资料以及Xie 和Arkin 分析的月平均降水资料(1968-1998 年) ,针对索马里低空急流(SMJ) 的年际变化及其对东亚夏季降水的影响问题展开了分析研究。结果揭示,SMJ作为最主要的越赤道气流,对两个半球间水汽输送起最关键的作用,它把水汽从冬半球输送到夏半球。夏季SMJ的年际变化有全球范围内的环流异常与之相联系,特别是东亚沿岸的波列状异常分布、南亚高压以及澳大利亚以南的偶极型异常分布;它也同春季的北印度洋等海区的海温异常有密切关系。研究还表明,春季SMJ的年际变化对东亚夏季降水和大气环流有显著影响,由于SMJ影响的超前性,因此它在东亚夏季气候预测上有重要意义

4) 王会军, 2003: 2002年亚洲北部的超强暖冬事件及其超常大气环流. 科学通报, 48(7), 734-736. 摘要

揭示并分析了2001年12月至2002年2月亚洲北部的超强暖冬事件(850 hPa,气温距平超过3℃), 以及与之相伴的全球大气环流异常特征。发现该超强暖冬是20世纪70年代末之后的年代际变化和年际变化共同作用的结果, 而且年际变化起主要作用。与此次亚洲北部强暖冬事件相伴的大气环流异常有着全球特征, 特别是在东半球异常显著; 同时, 南半球中、高纬区的大气环流异常亦十分明显。

5) 王会军,郎咸梅,周广庆,康杜鹃, 2003: 我国今冬和明春气候异常与沙尘气候形势的模式预测初步报告. 大气科学, 27(1), 136-140. 摘要

首次利用气候模式作了跨年度的针对冬季和春季气候异常形势的预测试验。预测结果显示,今冬的气候特点为,我北方降水正常,南方略偏多,气温在我国全境基本为正常,因此,不会出现暖冬现象,而欧亚大陆北部则为明显的暖冬。 预测结果还表明,明春我国西北、华北、东北降水正常,其他地区略多,全国气温均较正常,因此,明春的沙尘暴形势如常,不会出现超出常年的春季沙尘暴形势。但由于近些年的气候变化趋势使然,明春的沙尘暴仍可能在局部时空段内相当严重。

6) 郎咸梅,王会军 ,姜大膀, 2003: 中国冬季气候可预测性的跨季度集合数值预测研究. 科学通报, 48(15), 1700-1704. 摘要


7) 王会军, 2003: 2003与2002:大幅度冬季温度异常反转事件及其异常大气环流. 科学通报, 48(S2), 1-4. 摘要

揭示了2003年与2002年冬季发生于北半球中高纬区以及澳大利亚南部等地大幅度温度异常反转事件(LTAR), 在该次事件中欧亚大陆北部和北美大陆同时由2002年初的冬季异常暖事件突转为2003年的异常冷, 而北太平洋和澳大利亚南部则由异常冷突转为异常暖, 研究了该次事件的异常大气环流背景。发现:北太平洋区的异常气旋式环流系统和欧洲北部的异常反气旋式环流系统是关键角色, 这两个环流系统都有遥相关波列与之相联系。这样一个气旋式和一个反气旋式异常流型两个系统的耦合就是造成这次大幅度温度异常反转事件的主要原因。与北太平洋的异常环流系统相联系的波列很重要, 可以称为:北太平洋-西太平洋-澳大利亚异常波列(NPWPA), 而且, 澳大利亚以南的温度由负到正的异常转变很可能与这个波列以及南半球高纬区的纵向异常波列有关。


1) Wang Hui-Jun, Xue Feng, and Zhou Guang-Qing, 2002: The spring monsoon in South China and its relationship to large-scale circulation features. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 19(4), 651-664. 摘要

In this paper, the authors define the spring monsoon in South China, and study the climatology and the interannual variation through analysis of the precipitation and the related atmospheric circulation, as revealed by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results indicate that the spring monsoon season in South China occurs climatologically in April and May, which is supported by both seasonal and interannual variation of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation. The related atmospheric circulation is different from that during the East Asian summer or winter monsoon season. The interannual variation of the spring monsoon rainfall in South China relates primarily to the anomalous circulation over the North Pacific, which is linked with the westerly jet over North Asia and with the polar vortex. It is also connected with sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific. Changes in the Asian tropical atmospheric circulation have little influence on the spring monsoon in South China according to this research.

2) Wang Hui-Jun, 2002: The instability of the East Asian summer monsoon ENSO relations. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences , 19(1), 1-11. 摘要

The instability in the relation between the East Asian summer monsoon and the ENSO cycle in the long term variation is found through this research. By instability, we mean that high inter relation exists in some periods but low inter relation may appear in some other periods. It is reveals that the interannual variation of the summer atmospheric circulation during the &lsquo;high correlation&rsquo; periods (HCP) is significantly different from that during the &lsquo;low correlation&rsquo; periods (LCP). Larger interannual variability is found during HCP for trade wind over the tropical eastern Pacific of the Southern Hemisphere, the low&mdash;level air temperature over the tropical Pacific, the subtropical high pressure systems in the two hemispheres, and so on. The correlation between summer rainfall over China and ENSO is as well different between HCP and LCP.


1) 封国林, 戴新刚, 王爱慧, 丑纪范, 2001: 混沌系统中可预报性的研究. 物理学报, 50, 606-611. 摘要

2) Wang Hui-Jun, 2001: The Weakening of the Asian Monsoon Circulation after the End of 1970s. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 18(3), 376-386 . 摘要

The transition of the global atmospheric circulation in the end of 1970&rsquo;s can clearly be detected in the atmospheric temperature, wind velocity, and so on. Wavelet analysis reveals that the temporal scale of this change is large than 20 years. Studies in this work indicate that the trend of the transition over the mid-latitude Asia is opposite to that of global average for some variables at the middle troposphere. Another finding of this research is that the African-Asian monsoon circulation is weaker and the trade wind over the tropical eastern Pacific is weaker as well after this transition. Such a signal may be found in the summer precipitation over China as well.

3) WANG Huijun, CHEN Xingyue, XUE Feng and ZENG Qingcun, 2001: The Intraseasonal Oscillation And Its Interannual Variability - A Simulation Study. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 15(1), 49-58. 摘要

The atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) and its interannual variability are simulated by the atmospheric circulation mode, which was developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. Two numerical experiments were performed, corresponding to the AMIP-I and AMIP-II simulations, respectively. The model reasonable reproduces the majao aspects of the ontraseasonal oscillation, including the propagating property and the seasonal differences in the tropics, the wavenumber structure of ISO in the globe,and the globle coincidence in the interannual variation of ISO. Comparison of the results between the two experiments suggests that improvement of the boundary forcing or condifering the air-sea interaction may help to improve the simulation on the ISO and its interannual variability.


1) Wang H.J, 2000: The interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon and its relationship with SST in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land climate model. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 17(1), 31-47. 摘要

Based on a 200 year simulation and reanalysis data (1980 1996), the general characteristics of East Asian monsoon (EAM) were analyzed in the first part of the paper. It is clear from this re-search that the South Asian monsoon (SAM) defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is geographically and dynamically different from the East Asian monsoon (EAM). The region of the monsoon defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is located in the tropical region of Asia (40 110&deg;E, 10 20&deg;N), including the Indian monsoon and the Southeast Asian monsoon, while the EAM de-fined in this paper is located in the subtropical region of East Asia (110 125&deg;E, 20 40&deg;N). The components and the seasonal variations of the SAM and EAM are different and they characterize the tropical and subtropical Asian monsoon systems respectively. A suitable index (EAMI) for East Asian monsoon was then defined to describe the strength of EAM in this paper. In the second part of the paper, the interannual variability of EAM and its relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) in the 200 year simulation were studied by using the composite method, wavelet transformation, and the moving correlation coefficient method. The summer EAMI is negatively correlated with ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) cycle represented by the NINO3 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the preceding April and January, while the winter EAM is closely correlated with the succeeding spring SST over the Pacific in the coupled model. The general differences of EAM between El Nino and La Nina cases were studied in the model through composite analysis. It was also revealed that the dominating time scales of EAM variability may change in the long-term variation and the strength may also change. The anoma-lous winter EAM may have some correlation with the succeeding summer EAM, but this relation-ship may disappear sometimes in the long-term climate variation. Such time-dependence was found in the relationship between EAM and SST in the long-term climate simulation as well.

2) Wang H.J, G.Q. Zhou, and Y. Zhao, 2000: An effective method for correcting the seasonal-interannual prediction of summer climate anomaly. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 17, 234-240. 摘要

An effective method was proposed for correcting the seasonal&mdash;interannual prediction of the summer climate anomaly. The predictive skill can be substantially improved by applying the method to the seasonal&mdash;interannual prediction carried out by a coupled ocean&mdash;atmosphere model. Thus the method has the potential to improve the operational summer climate predictions.

3) 王会军, 2000: 关于我国几个大水年大气环流特征的几点思考. 应用气象学报, 11(增刊), 79-86. 摘要


4) Wang Hui-Jun, 2000: The seasonal climate and low frequency oscillation in the simulated mid-Holocene Megathermal climate. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 17(3), 445-457. 摘要

The mid&mdash;Holocene climate about 6000 years ago was simulated by using the atmospheric general circulation model. The orbital parameters for 6 ka BP (before present) were prescribed and other forcing factors were set in the modern conditions. Results show that the large&mdash;scale climate change in the African&mdash;Asian monsoon areas during the summer&mdash;time is strongly compared to the present climate, while the changes in other seasons and regions are generally weak. The results also revealed the change of the low frequency oscillation in the atmosphere.

5) Wang Hui-Jun, Taroh Matsuno, and Yoshio Kurihara, 2000: Ensemble Hindcast Experiments for the Flood Period over China in 1998 by Use of the CCSR/NIES Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 78(4), 357-365. 摘要

Sets of numerical hindcast experiments were carried out to study the excessive rain that happened over China in 1998 by using an atmospheric general circulation model. The monthly sea surface temperatures for 1998 were prescribed as the model boundary conditions. The initial atmospheric conditions for each of the 30 member simulations were obtained from the daily reanalysis data for 00 UTC from April 1 to April 30, 1998. The initial conditions for snow mass, soil temperature, and soil wetness were prescribed as those of the model climatology.<br /> The ensemble averages of the 30 member hindcast experiments captured the positive rainfall anomaly occurred over China in the summer of 1998, with 5 degree of northward shift. The observed patterns of summer geopotential anomalies were qualitatively reproduced as well. It was revealed that initial atmospheric anomalies in April have apparent impacts on the simulated flow patterns over Eurasia and the North Pacific, and rainfall anomalies over China during the summer of 1998. However, the overall results suggest that tropical sea surface temperature anomaly played a key role in heavy rainfall over China in 1998.


1) Wang Hui-Jun, Ren-He Zhang, Cole Julie, and Francisco Chavez, 1999: El Nino and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENSO): The largest signal in interannual climate variation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci, 96, 11071-11072. 摘要

El Nin&tilde;o and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest signal in the interannual variation of ocean-atmosphere system. It is mainly a tropical event but its impact is global. ENSO has been drawing great scientific attention in many international research programs. There has been an observational system for the tropical ocean, and scientists have known the climatologies of the upper ocean, developed some theories about the ENSO cycle, and established coupled ocean-atmosphere models to give encouraging predictions of ENSO for a 1-year lead. However, questions remain about the physical mechanisms for the ENSO cycle and its irregularity, ENSO-monsoon interactions, long-term variation of ENSO, and increasing the predictive skill of ENSO and its related climate variations.

2) Wang Hui-Jun, 1999: Role of vegetation and soil in the Holocene megathermal climate over China. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 104(8), 9361-9367. 摘要

There was significant difference between vegetation cover in mid-Holocene and that at present over China based on various evidences as concludes by Shi et al [1992]. These changes were introduced to the climate model to study the role of the changing vegetation and associated soil to the simulated climate of mid-Holocene at 6000 years before present (BP) with bigger seasonal cycle of insolation than present (caused by the change of orbital parameters). Results show that the changes in vegetation and soil could further strengthen the monsoon rainfall over China. We found that replacing the today&rsquo;s seasonal cycle of insolation by that of mid-Holocene increases the summer (June-August) precipitation by 20% in eastern China (100-120E,18-42N); while considering both the effect of changing orbital forcing and the vegetation and soil, the total summer precipitation increase in 29% in the same region. Compared with the reconstructed precipitation over China, the results of that including changing vegetation and soil is quantitatively better.


1) 王会军, 1997: 试论短期气候预测的不确定性. 气候与环境研究, 2(4), 333-338. 摘要


2) Wang Huijun, Xue Feng and Bi Xunqiang, 1997: The interannual variability and predictability of a global climate model. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 14(4), 554-562. 摘要

The interannual variabilities of the climatological simulation (V1) and the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) simulation (V2) by the IAP 9-Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model are studied and discussed in this paper. Based on the analysis of ratio of variability (R) of above two simulations the predictability of the model on the interannual climate variation are studied as well. Results show that V2 is bigger than V1 generally and V2 is more comparable to the real variability of the atmosphere, the major difference of V1 and V2 is in the tropics, for temperature and geopotential height the predictability is higher in the tropics while in the extra-tropics there is almost no predictability and the predictability is bigger in higher level than in lower level. The predictability for precipitation is generally low in the globe, and generally the predictability is high in the tropical eastern Pacific for the lower level. This study suggests that the possible way of increasing the model predictability is the improvement of land surface process modelling and the inclusion of the interannual variations of the land surface conditions (snow cover, albedo, soil moisture, etc.) as the forcing factor for climate modelling and prediction.