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姓 名:王会军
职 务:主任
职 称:研究员 (中国科学院院士)
研究方向:古气候模拟与气候变化、东亚季风气候变异及其预测
进所时间:0000-00-00
教育
1982.9 - 1986.7 北京大学地球物理系, 获学士学位
1986.9 - 1991.9 中科院大气物理研究所,获博士学位
研究经历
1991. 9 - 1994.12 中国科学院大气物理研究所助理研究员
1991.11 美国Lorenz国家实验室(LLNL/PCMDI)气候模拟短期合作研究
1994.12 - 1996.12 中国科学院大气物理研究所副研究员
1996.12 - 至今 中国科学院大气物理研究所研究员

任职经历
2001-2005 任中国科学院大气物理研究所常务副所长,主持研究所全面工作;
2005.5-2014.5 任中国科学院大气物理研究所所长;
2003年与挪威著名科学家Ola Johannessen教授共同创立了竺可桢-南森国际研究中心
曾担任国际气候变率及可预测性研究计划(CLIVAR)亚澳季风工作组AAMP委员、世界气象组织热带气象委员会东亚季风工作组EAMP委员。现为挪威极地科学研究院委员、《Adv. Atmos. Sci.》主编、《科学通报》特邀编辑、《气象学报》、《大气科学》编委;WCRP委员会主席、中国CLIVAR委员会主席、中国气象学会第二十八届理事会理事长、中国科学探险学会副理事长、中国第四纪研究委员会理事、中国气象学会统计气象学专业委员会主任、动力气象学专业委员会委员;中国海洋大学、兰州大学、云南大学、中山大学等学校客座教授。为中国科学院-美国能源部气候变化合作研究之中方首席科学家。

研究项目
1998-2000年 中国科学院创新重要研究方向项目“东亚夏季风年际变率研究”的首席科学家
1991-2000年 攀登项目“气候动力学和气候预测理论的研究”的课题负责人
2004-2006年 中国科学院创新重要研究方向项目“中高纬大气环流和南北半球相互作用”的首席科学家
2002-2006年 国家自然基金重大项目“古气候模拟和气候季节预测研究”的首席科学家(国家杰出青年基金)
2007-2010年 国家自然基金重大项目“极区大气涛动的年际变化对热带大气环流的影响”的首席科学家(基金委重点项目)
2009-2011年 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目“中国近百年来气候变化分析及其模拟研究(KZCX2-YW-Q1-02)”,首席科学家
2009-2011年 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目群“海陆气相互作用-圈层相互作用与亚洲季风的年际和年代际变化”,顶层专家组组长
2009-2013年 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目《全球变暖背景下东亚能量和水分循环变异及其对我国极端气候的影响》(2009CB421400),首席科学家
2012-2014年 中国科学院重点国际合作项目“亚澳季风系统及气候变化对水资源变异规律研究”的首席科学家
2012-2016年 国家自然基金重点项目“我国东北地区冬春季节气候年际和年代际变化及有关预测研究”的首席科学家
2013-2017年 国家自然基金重大国际合作项目“欧亚大陆中高纬区冬春季气候变化及其未来情景研究”的首席科学家
2015-2020年 国家自然基金创新研究群体项目“东亚气候系统变化机制及预测方法”的首席科学家

重要著作
2012:王会军,范可,郎咸梅,孙建奇,陈丽娟等著:我国短期气候预测的新理论、新方法和新技术,气象出版社,226pp,北京(Wang Huijun, Fan Ke, Lang Xianmei, Sun Jianqi, Chen Lijuan, et al., 2012: Advances in climate prediction theory and techniques of China, 226pp, China Meteorological Press, Beijing)

2015年
WANG Huijun, FAN Ke, SUN Jianqi, LI Shuanglin, LIN Zhaohui, ZHOU Guangqing, CHEN Lijuan, LANG Xianmei, LI Fang, ZHU Yali, CHEN Hong, ZHENG Fei, 2015: A Review of Seasonal Climate Prediction Research in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 32(2): 149-168.

Ma Jiehua, Wang Huijun, Ke Fan, 2015: Dynamic downscaling of summer precipitation prediction over China in 1998 using WRF and CCSM4. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 32(5): 577-584.

2014年
Yan, Q., H. J. Wang, O. M. Johannessen, and Z. S. Zhang, 2014: Greenland ice sheet contribution to future global sea level rise based on CMIP5 models. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 31(1), 8-16.

Li, F., H. J. Wang, and Y. Q. Gao, 2014: Modulation of Aleutian Low and Antarctic Oscillation co-variability by ENSO. Climate Dyn,

Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, 2014: Simulated change in the near-surface soil freeze/thaw cycle on the Tibetan Plateau from 1981 to 2010, 59(20), Chinese Science Bulletin, 2439-2448.

Li Fei, Wang Huijun, Liu, Jiping, 2014: The strengthening relationship between Arctic Oscillation and ENSO after the mid-1990s, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 34(7), 2515-2521.

Sun Bo, Wang Huijun, 2014: Moisture Sources of Semiarid Grassland in China Using the Lagrangian Particle Model FLEXPART, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 27(6), 2457-2474.

Yan Qing, Zhang Zhongshi, Wang Huijun, Zhang Ran, 2014: Simulation of Greenland ice sheet during the mid-Pliocene warm period, Chinese Science Bulletin, 59(2), 201-211.

Guo Dong, Gao Yongqi, Bethke Ingo, Gong Daoyi, Johannessen Ola M., Wang Huijun, 2014:Mechanism on how the spring Arctic sea ice impacts the East Asian summer monsoon, THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 115(1-2), 107-119.

Li Fei, Wang Huijun, 2014: Autumn Eurasian snow depth, autumn Arctic sea ice cover and East Asian winter monsoon, International Journal of Climatology, Article first published online: 12 FEB 2014, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3936.

Li Fei, Wang Huijun, Gao Yongqi, 2014: On the Strengthened Relationship between the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Arctic Oscillation: A Comparison of 1950–70 and 1983–2012, Journal of Climate, 27, 5075–5091.

Zhou Mengzi, Wang Huijun, 2014: Late Winter Sea Ice in the Bering Sea: Predictor for Maize and Rice Production in Northeast China. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53, 1183–1192.

Hua Wei, Shen Samuel S. P., Wang Huijun, 2014: Analysis of sampling error uncertainties and trends in maximum and minimum temperatures in China, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 31(2), 263-272.

Ma Jiehua, Wang Huijun, 2014: Design and testing of a global climate prediction system based on a coupled climate model. Science China: Earth Sciences, 57(10): 2417-2427.

Ma Jiehua, Wang Huijun, Zhang Ying, 2014: Will typhoon over the western North Pacific be more frequent in the blue Arctic conditions?. Science China: Earth Sciences, 57(7): 1494-1500.

2013年
王会军,范可, 2013: 东亚季风近几十年来的主要变化特征. 大气科学, 37, 313-318

Wang, H. J., and S. P. He, 2013: The increase of snowfall in Northeast China after the mid 1980s, Chinese Science Bulletin. doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5508-1, ,

YANYAN HUANG, HUIJUN WANG, PING ZHAO, 2013: Is the Interannual Variability of the Summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation Predictable?. Journal of Climate, 26, 3865-3876

Wang, T., H. J. Wang, O. H. Otter?, Y. Q. Gao, L. L. Suo, T. Furevik, and L. Yu, 2013: Anthropogenic agent implicated as a prime driver of shift in precipitation in eastern China in the late 1970s. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 12433-12450

Wang, T., H. J. Wang, 2013: Mid-Holocene Asian summer climate and its responses to cold ocean surface simulated in the PMIP2 OAGCMs experiments . Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 4117-4128

He Shengping, Wang Huijun, 2013: Impact of the November/December Arctic Oscillation on the following January temperature in East Asia, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospneres, 118(23), 12981-12998.

Yan Qing, Zhang Zhongshi, Gao Yongqi, Wang Huijun, Johannessen Ola M., 2013: Sensitivity of the modeled present-day Greenland Ice Sheet to climatic forcing and spin-up methods and its influence on future sea level projections, Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 118(4), 2174-2189.

He Shengping, Wang Huijun, 2013: Oscillating Relationship between the East Asian Winter Monsoon and ENSO, Journal of Climate, 26(24), 9819-9838.

Zhou Mengzi, Wang Huijun, Yang Song, Fan Ke, 2013: Influence of springtime North Atlantic Oscillation on crops yields in Northeast China, Climate Dynamics, 41(11-12), 3317-3324.

Li Fei, Wang Huijun, 2013: Spring surface cooling trend along the East Asian coast after the late 1990s, Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(31), 3847-3851.

Wang Huijun, He Shengping, Liu Jiping, 2013: Present and future relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO: Results of CMIP5, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 118(10), 5222-5237.

Sun Bo, Wang Huijun, 2013: Larger variability, better predictability? International Journal of Climatology, 33(10), 2341-2351.

Sun Bo, Wang Huijun, 2013: Water Vapor Transport Paths and Accumulation during Widespread Snowfall Events in Northeastern China, Journal of Climate, 26(13), 4550-4566.

Fu Yuanhai, Lu Riyu, Wang Huijun, Yang Xiuqun, 2013: Impact of overestimated ENSO variability in the relationship between ENSO and East Asian summer rainfall, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospneres, 118(12), 6200-6211.

Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, 2013: Simulation of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground conditions on the Tibetan Plateau, 1981-2010, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospneres, 118(11), 5216-5230.

Li Fei, Wang Huijun, 2013: Autumn Sea Ice Cover, Winter Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode, and Winter Precipitation in Eurasia, Journal of Climate, 26(11), 3968-3981.

He Shengping, Wang Huijun, Liu Jiping, 2013: Changes in the Relationship between ENSO and Asia-Pacific Midlatitude Winter Atmospheric Circulation, Journal of Climate, 26(10), 3377-3393.

Yu Entao, Wang Huijun, Sun Jianqi, Gao Yongqi, 2013: Climatic response to changes in vegetation in the Northwest Hetao Plain as simulated by the WRF model, International Journal of Climatology, 33(6), 1470-1481.

Liu Shan, Wang Huijun, 2013: Transition of zonal asymmetry of the Arctic Oscillation and the Antarctic Oscillation at the end of 1970s, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 30(1), 41-47.

Li Fei, Wang Huijun, 2013: Relationship between Bering Sea ice cover and East Asian winter monsoon year-to-year variations, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 30(1), 48-56.

2012年
Liu Jiping, Judith A. Curry, WANG HuiJun , Mirong Song, and Radley M. Horton, 2012: Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci, DOI:10.1073/, pnas.1114910109,

Zhang,Z.S., F. Flatoy, H.J. Wang, I. Bethke, M. Bentsen, Z.T. Guo, 2012: Early Eocene Asian climate dominated by
desert and steppe with limited monsoons. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 44, 24-35
Yan, Q., Zhang, Z. S., Wang, H. J., Gao, Y. Q., and Zheng, W. P., 2012: Set-up and preliminary_ results of Middle Pliocene climate simulations with CAM3.1. Geosci. Model Dev, 5, 289-297

Wang, T., O.H. Otter?, Y.Q. Gao, and H.J. Wang, 2012: The response of the North Pacific Decadal Variability to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1373-5,

贺圣平,王会军, 2012: 东亚冬季风综合指数及其表达的东亚冬季风年际变化特征. 大气科学, 36(3), 523-538

Li, F., and H. J. Wang, 2012: Predictability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Interannual Variability as Indicated by the DEMETER CGCMS. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 29(3), 441–454

Sun, J. Q., and H. J. Wang, 2012: Changes of the connection between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Asian summer rainfall. J. Geophys. Res, 117, D08110, doi:10.1029/2012JD017482

Wang, S., E. Yu, and H. Wang, 2012: A simulation study of a heavy rainfall process over the Yangtze River valley using the two-way nesting approach. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 29(4), 731-743

Chen, Huopo, Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang, 2012: A Statistical Downscaling Model for Forecasting Summer Rainfall in China from DEMETER Hindcast Datasets. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 608–628

Wang H.J. and S.P. He, 2012: Weakening Relationship between East Asian Winter Monsoon and ENSO after mid-1970s. Chinese Science Bulletin, doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5285-x,

Huanlian Li, Huijun Wang, Yizhou Yin, 2012: Interdecadal variation of the West African summer monsoon during 1979–2010 and associated variability. Clim Dyn, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1426-9,

Wang, H. J., and H. P. Chen, 2012: Climate control for southeastern China moisture and precipitation: Indian or East Asian monsoon?. J. Geophys. Res, 117, D12109, doi:10.1029/2012JD017734

Wang H. J., JianQi Sun, HuoPo Chen, YaLi Zhu, Ying Zhang, DaBang Jiang, XianMei Lang, Ke Fan, EnTao Yu, and Song Yang, 2012: Extreme Climate in China: Facts, Simulation and Projection. Meteorologische Zeitschrift,, DOI 10.1127/0941-2948/2012/0330,

MA JieHua, WANG HuiJun, ZHANG Ying, 2012: Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future? The AGCM simulation under summer ‘ice-free Arctic’ conditions,. China Science Bulletin, 57(8), 921-926

何晏春,郜永祺, 王会军,Johannessen M Ola,于雷, 2012: 2011年3月日本福岛核电站核泄漏在海洋中的传输. 海洋学报, 34, 12-20.

黄艳艳,王会军, 2012: 欧亚地区夏季大气环流年际变化的关键区及亚洲夏季风的关联信号. 地球物理学报, 55(7), 2227-2238.

He Shengping, WANG HuiJun, 2012: Analysis of the decadal and interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon as simulated by 20 coupled models in IPCC AR4. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 26(4), 476-488.

Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, Li Duo, 2012: A projection of permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau during the 21st century, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospneres, 117(D05106).

Gao Ya, Wang HuiJun, 2012: Pan-Asian monsoon and its definition, principal modes of precipitation, and variability features, Science China-Earth Sciences, 55(5), 787-795.

Guo Donglin, Wang Huijun, 2012: The significant climate warming in the northern Tibetan Plateau and its possible causes, International Journal of Climatology, 32(12), 1775-1781.

Zhao Ping, Yang Song, Wu Renguang, Wen Zhiping, Chen Junming, Wang Huijun, 2012: Asian Origin of Interannual Variations of Summer Climate over the Extratropical North Atlantic Ocean, Journal of Climate, 25(19), 6594-6609.

2011年
Wang, Huijun, 2011: A new prediction model for tropical storm frequency over the western North Pacific using observed winter-spring precipitation and geopotential height at 500 hPa. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 25(3), 262-271

燕青,张仲石,王会军,姜大膀,郑伟鹏, 2011: 上新世中期海洋表面温度变化及其与古气候重建数据对比. 科学通报, 6, 423-432

孙建奇,王会军,袁薇, 2011: 我国极端高温事件的年代际变化及其与大气环流的联系. 气候与环境研究, 16(2), 199-208

马洁华,王会军,张颖, 2011: 北极夏季无海冰状态时的东亚气候变化数值模拟研究. 气候变化研究进展, 7 (3), 162-170

Yue, X., Liao, H., Wang, H. J., Li, S. L., and Tang, J. P, 2011: Role of sea surface temperature responses in simulation of the climatic effect of mineral dust aerosol,. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, 6049-6062

Yue, X., Wang, H. J., Liao, H., and Jiang, D. B, 2011: Simulation of the direct radiative effect of mineral dust aerosol on the climate at the Last Glacial Maximum. Journal of Climate, 24, 843-858

WANG HuiJun, Yu Entao, Yang Song, 2011: An exceptionally heavy snowfall in Northeast China: large-scale circulation anomalies and hindcast of the NCAR WRF model. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys, 113, 11-25

Yan Qing, Zhang ZhongShi, Wang HuiJun, Jiang DaBang, Zheng WeiPeng, 2011: Simulation of sea surface temperature changes in the Middle Pliocene warm period and comparison with reconstructions, CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN, 56(9), 890-899.

Zong Peishu, Wang Huijun, 2011: Evaluation and Analysis of RegCM3 Simulated Summer Rainfall over the Huaihe River Basin of China, ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA, 25(3), 386-394.

Qian Zhuolei, Wang Huijun, Sun Jianqi, 2011: The Hindcast of Winter and Spring Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation with the Coupled Climate Models, ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA, 25(3), 340-354.

Guo Donglin, Yang Meixue, Wang, Huijun, 2011: Characteristics of land surface heat and water exchange under different soil freeze/thaw conditions over the central Tibetan Plateau, HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 25(16), 2531-2541.

Sun Bo, Zhu Yali, Wang Huijun, 2011: The recent interdecadal and interannual variation of water vapor transport over eastern China, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28(5), 1039-1048.

Chen Linling, Johannessen Ola M., Wang Huijun, Ohmura Atsumu, 2011: Accumulation over the Greenland Ice Sheet as represented in reanalysis data, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 28(5), 1030-1038.

Zhao Ping, Yang Song, Wang Huijun, Zhang Qiang, 2011: Interdecadal Relationships between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation and Summer Climate Anomalies over Asia, North Pacific, and North America during a Recent 100 Years, JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 24(18), 4793-4799.

Yu Entao, Wang Huijun, Gao Yongqi, Sun Jianqi, 2011: Impacts of cumulus convective parameterization schemes on summer monsoon precipitation simulation over China, ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA, 25(5), 581-592.

2010年
WANG HuiJun and ZHANG Ying, 2010: Model Projections of East Asia Summer Climate under the ‘Free Arctic’ Scenario. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 3(3), 176-180.

Xu Yue, Huijun Wang, Hong Liao and Ke Fan, 2010: Simulation of dust aerosol radiative feedback using the GMOD:2. Dust-climate interactions. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 115, D04201, doi:10.1029/2009JD012063.

Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang and Wei Yuan, 2010: Linkage of the Boreal Spring Antarctic Oscillation to the West African Summer Monsoon. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 88, 15-28.

Yali Zhu, Huijun Wang, Wen Zhou, Jiehua Ma, 2010: Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0852-9

王会军,张颖,郎咸梅, 2010: 论短期气候预测的对象问题. 气候与环境研究, 15(3), 225-228.

WANG HuiJun and QIAN Zhuolei, 2010: A potential high-score Scheme for the seasonal prediction of Atlantic storm activity. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 3(2), 116-119.

Xianmei Lang and Huijun Wang, 2010: Improving Extraseasonal Summer Rainfall Prediction by Merging Information from GCMs and Observations. WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 25, 1263-1274.

Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang, Wei Yuan and Huopo Chen, 2010: Spatial‐temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 115, D16110, doi:10.1029/2009JD0134.

ZHANG Ying,WANG HuiJun,SUN Jianqi,Helge DRANGE, 2010: Changes in the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index over the Western North Pacific in the SRES A2 Scenario. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27(6), 1246-1258.

YUE Xu,WANG HuiJun,LIAO Hong,FAN Ke, 2010: Direct Climatic Effect of Dust Aerosol in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3) . Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27(2), 230-242.

ZHU Yali,WANG HuiJun, 2010: The Relationship between the Aleutian Low and the Australian Summer Monsoon at Interannual Time Scales. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27(1), 177-184.

WANG Jun and WANG HuiJun, 2010: The Relationship between Total Ozone and Local Climate at Kunming Using Dobson and TOMS Data. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 3(4), 207-212.

Wang Tao, WANG HuiJun, and Jiang Dabang, 2010: Mid-Holocene East Asian summer climate as simulated by the PMIP2 models. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 288, 93-102.

Zhang Ying, Wang Huijun, 2010: A projection of future climate change over the western North Pacific related to typhoon activities, Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 68(4), 539-549.

Lin Meijing, Fan Ke, Wang Huijun, 2010: An investigation into the climatic characteristics of vertical shear of zonal wind in the western North Pacific, Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 68(3), 309-314.

Zhu Yali, Wang Huijun, 2010: The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the IPCC AR4 Coupled Models, ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA, 24(2), 176-188.

Fan Ke, Wang Huijun, 2010: Seasonal Prediction of Summer Temperature over Northeast China Using a Year-to-Year Incremental Approach, ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA, 24(3), 269-275.

2009年
Huijun Wang and Ke Fan, 2009: A New Scheme for Improving the Seasonal Prediction of Summer Precipitation Anomalies. Weather and Forecasting, 24, 548–554.

Ke Fan and Huijun Wang, 2009: A New Approach to Forecasting Typhoon Frequency over the Western North Pacific. WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 24, 74-986.

WANG HuiJun, and Jianqi Sun, 2009: Variability of Northeast China River Break-up Date. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26(4), 701-706.

王会军,王涛,姜大膀,富元海, 2009: 我国气候变化将比模式预期的小吗?. 第四纪研究, 29(6), 1011-1014.

Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang and Wei Yuan, 2009: Role of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature in the decadal change of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 114, D20110, doi:10.1029/2009JD012395.

Yu Lei, Gao YongQi, Wang HuiJun, Guo Dong, Li ShuangLin, 2009: The responses of East Asian Summer monsoon to the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in an enhanced freshwater input simulation, Chinese Science Bulletin, 54(24), 4724-4732.

Chang Wenyuan, Liao Hong, Wang Huijun, 2009: Climate Responses to Direct Radiative Forcing of Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases in Eastern China over 1951-2000, ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 26(4), 748-762.

Sun Jianqi, Wang Huijun, Yuan Wei, 2009: A possible mechanism for the co-variability of the boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation and the Yangtze River valley summer rainfall, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 29(9), 1276-1284.

SUN Jianqi, WANG Huijun, YUAN Wei, 2009: A preliminary investigation on causes of the catastrophic snowstorm in March,2007 in the northeastern parts of China, Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 67(3), 469-477.

Zhang Zhongshi, Wang Huijun, Guo Zhengtang, 2009: Transition of Thermohaline Circulation Modes And Its impact on Cenozoic Climate, Quaternary Sciences, 29(6), 1064-1070.

2009年之前
Ning Zeng, Yihui Ding, Jiahua Pan, Huijun Wang, Jay Gregg, 2008: Climate Change—the Chinese Challenge. Science, 318, 730-731.

王会军,孙建奇,范可, 2007: 北太平洋涛动与台风和飓风频次的关系研究. 中国科学(D), 37(7), 966-973.

苏明峰,王会军, 2006: 中国气候干湿变率与ENSO的关系及其稳定性. 中国科学(D), 36(10), 951-958.

Botao Zhou and Huijun Wang, 2006: Relationship between the boreal spring Hadley circulation and the summer precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D16109, doi:10.1029/2005JD0070006.

范可,王会军, 2006: 有关南半球大气环流与东亚气候的关系研究的若干新进展. 大气科学, 30(3), 402-412.

王会军,郎咸梅,范可,孙建奇,周广庆, 2006: 关于2006 年西太平洋台风活动频次的气候预测试验. 气候与环境研究, 11(2), 133-137.

王会军,范可, 2006: 南半球对流层上层纬向风与东亚夏季风环流. 科学通报, 51(13), 1595-1600.

范可,王会军,, 2006: 南极涛动的年际变化及其对东亚冬春季气候的影响. 中国科学(D 辑) 地球科学, 36(4), 385-391.

WANG HuiJun, 2006: Linkage Between the Northeast Mongolian Precipitation and the Northern Hemisphere Zonal Circulation. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 23(5), 659–664.

王会军, 范可, 2006: 西北太平洋台风生成频次与南极涛动的关系. 科学通报, 51(24), 2910-2914.

Zhang Zhongshi, Wang H. J., Guo Zhengtang, Jiang Dabang, 2006: What triggers the transition of palaeoenvironmental patterns in China, the Tibetan Plateau uplift or the Paratethys Sea retreat?.Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 245, 317-331

WANG HuiJun, 2005: The Circum-Pacific Teleconnection Pattern in Meridional Wind in the High Troposphere. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 22(3), 463–466

Huijun Wang and Ke Fan, 2005: Central-north China precipitation as reconstructed from the Qing dynasty: Signal of the Antarctic Atmospheric Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L24705, doi:10.1029/2005GL024562

康杜娟,王会军, 2005: 中国北方沙尘暴气候形势的年代际变化. 中国科学(D), 35(11, 1096-1102

孙建奇,王会军, 2005: 北极涛动与太平洋年代际振荡的关系. 科学通报, 50(15), 1648-1653

王会军, 2005: 来自大气内部的季节气候可预测性初探. 大气科学, 29(1), 64-70

姜大膀,王会军, 2005: 20世纪后期东亚夏季风年代际减弱的自然属性. 科学通报, 50(20), 2256-2262

Jiang Dabang, WANG HuiJun, Ding Zhongli, Lang Xianmei,Drange Helge, 2005: Modeling the middle Pliocene climate with a global atmospheric general circulation model. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 110, D14107

Fan Ke, and Wang HuiJun, 2004: Antarctic oscillation and the dust weather frequency in North China. Geophys. Res. Lett, 31, L10201, doi:10.1029/2004GL019465

Feng Xue, Huijun Wang and Jinhai He, 2004: Interannual variability of Mascarene high and Australian high and their influences on East Asian summer monsoon. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 82(4),, 1173-1186

王会军,徐永福,周天军,陈洪滨,王普才,陆日宇,张美根, 2004: 大气科学:一个充满活力的前沿科学. 地球科学进展, 19(4), 525-532

Jiang Dabang, WANG HuiJun, Helge Drange, and Lang Xianmei, 2003: Last glacial maximum over China: Sensitivities of climate to paleovegetation and Tibetan ice-sheet. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D3), 4102, doi:10.1029/2002JD002167

王会军, 薛峰, 2003: 索马里急流的年际变化及其对半球间水汽输送和东亚夏季降水的影响. 地球物理学报, 46(1), 18-25

王会军, 2003: 2002年亚洲北部的超强暖冬事件及其超常大气环流. 科学通报, 48(7), 734-736

王会军,郎咸梅,周广庆,康杜鹃, 2003: 我国今冬和明春气候异常与沙尘气候形势的模式预测初步报告. 大气科学, 27(1), 136-140

郎咸梅,王会军 ,姜大膀, 2003: 中国冬季气候可预测性的跨季度集合数值预测研究. 科学通报, 48(15), 1700-1704

王会军, 2003: 2003与2002:大幅度冬季温度异常反转事件及其异常大气环流. 科学通报, 48(S2), 1-4

Wang HuiJun, Xue Feng, and Zhou Guang-Qing, 2002: The spring monsoon in South China and its relationship to large-scale circulation features. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 19(4), 651-664

Wang HuiJun, 2002: The instability of the East Asian summer monsoon ENSO relations. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences , 19(1), 1-11

Wang HuiJun, 2001: The Weakening of the Asian Monsoon Circulation after the End of 1970s. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 18(3), 376-386

WANG HuiJun, CHEN Xingyue, XUE Feng and ZENG Qingcun, 2001: The Intraseasonal Oscillation And Its Interannual Variability - A Simulation Study. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 15(1), 49-58

Wang H.J. , 2000: The interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon and its relationship with SST in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land climate model. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 17(1), 31-47

Wang H.J. , G.Q. Zhou, and Y. Zhao, 2000: An effective method for correcting the seasonal-interannual prediction of summer climate anomaly. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 17, 234-240

王会军, 2000: 关于我国几个大水年大气环流特征的几点思考. 应用气象学报, 11(增刊), 79-86

Wang HuiJun, 2000: The seasonal climate and low frequency oscillation in the simulated mid-Holocene Megathermal climate. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 17(3), 445-457

Wang HuiJun, Taroh Matsuno, and Yoshio Kurihara, 2000: Ensemble Hindcast Experiments for the Flood Period over China in 1998 by Use of the CCSR/NIES Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 78(4), 357-365

Wang HuiJun, Ren-He Zhang, Cole Julie, and Francisco Chavez, 1999: El Nino and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENSO): The largest signal in interannual climate variation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci, 96, 11071-11072

Wang HuiJun, 1999: Role of vegetation and soil in the Holocene megathermal climate over China.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 104(8), 9361-9367

王会军, 1997: 试论短期气候预测的不确定性. 气候与环境研究, 2(4), 333-338

WANG HuiJun, Xue Feng and Bi Xunqiang, 1997: The interannual variability and predictability of a global climate model. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 14(4), 554-562


代表著作:

1) Yan, Q., H. J. Wang, O. M. Johannessen, and Z. S. Zhang, 2014: Greenland ice sheet contribution to future global sea level rise based on CMIP5 models. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 31(1), 8-16 <摘要>

    格陵兰冰盖是现代北半球唯一的陆地冰盖,其物质平衡变化对全球海平面上升具有重要的影响。同时,格陵兰冰盖融化将导致大量的淡水注入到北大西洋,减弱北大西洋经圈翻转环流,进而影响到全球气候。因此,本文利用最新的CMIP5模式预估结果和冰盖模式SICOPOLIS,模拟研究了21世纪格陵兰冰盖物质平衡的变化以及冰盖融化对全球海平面上升的贡献。在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下,SICOPOLIS模拟结果表明,格陵兰冰盖融化将导致全球海平面在2100年时分别上升0&minus;16 cm和0&minus;27 cm(相对于1986&minus;2005);如果考虑未来冰盖底部滑动加倍,全球海平面将分别上升7&minus;22 cm和7&minus;33 cm。基于多模式集合平均的结果,全球海平面在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下将分别上升4 cm和7 cm(考虑底部滑动增强时,分别为10 cm和13 cm)。上述海平面预估的不确定性正反映了在相同的外部强迫下全球模式预估结果的离散性,而评估模式并选择性的使用模式可以在一定程度上减小海平面预估的不确定范围。</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

2) Li, F., H. J. Wang, and Y. Q. Gao, 2014: Modulation of Aleutian Low and Antarctic Oscillation co-variability by ENSO. Climate Dyn, , <摘要>

    本文利用NCEP-NCAR再分析资料和NCAR CAM3,发现1月份AL和AAO之关系在1990s末之后显著加强,由之前的没有显著相关,变成了AL&ndash;(-AAO)显著正相关。进一步的研究表明,1990s末之后,ENSO在热带东太平洋引起垂直运动距平相对偏强,同时,东太平洋对流层高层的辐散也偏强,经向Hadley环流偏强。ENSO与南、北半球大气环流及气候联系加强是造成AL和AAO之关系加强的主要原因。</div>

3) 王会军,范可, 2013: 东亚季风近几十年来的主要变化特征. 大气科学, 37, 313-318 <摘要>

    本文简要综述了关于东亚夏季风和冬季风近几十年来的主要变化特征的若干研究结果,特别是关于其年代际变化方面。夏季风及夏季气候的主要变化特征有:1970年代末之后东亚夏季风的年代际时间尺度的减弱以及相应的我国夏季降水江淮流域增多而华北减少、1992年之后我国华南夏季降水增多、1999年之后我国长江中下游夏季降水减少而淮河流域夏季降水增多、东亚夏季风和ENSO之间的年际变化相关性存在不稳定性。而关于东亚冬季风与冬季气候的主要变化特征有:1980年代中期之后东亚冬季风及其年际变率减弱、1970年代中期之后冬季风和ENSO的年际变化相关性较弱、近年来的北极秋季海冰减少对北半球冬季积雪增多有显著贡献、东北冬季积雪在1980年代中期以后增多。与上述变化有关的极端气候和物候都发生了多方面的变化。</div>

4) Wang, H. J., and S. P. He, 2013: The increase of snowfall in Northeast China after the mid 1980s, Chinese Science Bulletin. doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5508-1, , <摘要>

     本文研究了1951-2010年期间我国东北冬季降雪的长期变化. 结果显示, 相对于1951-1985年, 1986-2010年间的降雪大约增加了20%. 进一步分析表明降雪的增加可能与东亚冬季风的减弱密切相关. 同时, 本研究还探讨了其中的有关物理机制. 东亚冬季风的减弱导致来自北方的冷空气减弱, 东北亚沿海海温偏暖; 使得从海洋蒸发到大气的水汽增多, 于是输送到东北的水汽也相应增多. 此外, 由于东亚冬季风的减弱, 从东北南部、东部以及西部输入的水汽都增多, 从而大气中的水汽含量增加, 降雪随之增强. 从大气环流环流的角度分析表明, 东亚冬季风的减弱使得低层辐合、高层辐散加强, 有利于垂直运动的加强, 为降雪增多提供了相应的动力条件

5) YANYAN HUANG, HUIJUN WANG, PING ZHAO, 2013: Is the Interannual Variability of the Summer Asian-Pacific Oscillation Predictable?. Journal of Climate, 26, 3865-3876 <摘要>

    The summer (June-July-August) Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) measures the interannual variability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the Asian-North Pacific sector. In this study, we assess the predictability of the summer APO index interannual variability and the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies using the 1959-2001 hindcast data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Centre National de Recherches M&eacute;t&eacute;orologiques (CNRM), and the Met Office (UKMO) general circulation models from the Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction project. The results show that these models predict well the summer APO index interannual variability and have higher skill for the North Pacific upper-tropospheric temperature than for the Asian upper-tropospheric temperature. Meanwhile, the observed APO-related atmospheric circulation anomalies in the South Asian high, the tropical easterly wind jet over the Asian monsoon region in the upper troposphere, the subtropical anticyclone over the North Pacific and the summer southwest monsoon over Asia in the lower troposphere are reasonably well predicted in their spatial patterns and intensities. Compared with the observations, however, these models display low skill in predicting the long-term varying trends of the upper-tropospheric temperature over the Asian-North Pacific sector or the APO index during 1959-2001.

6) Wang, T., H. J. Wang, O. H. Otterå, Y. Q. Gao, L. L. Suo, T. Furevik, and L. Yu, 2013: Anthropogenic agent implicated as a prime driver of shift in precipitation in eastern China in the late 1970s. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13, 12433-12450 <摘要>

    Observation shows that eastern China experienced an interdecadal shift in the summer precipitation during the second half of the 20th century. The summer precipitation increased in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley, whereas it decreased in northern China. Here we use a coupled ocean&ndash;atmosphere general circulation model and multi-ensemble simulations to show that the interdecadal shift is mainly caused by the anthropogenic forcing. The rapidly increasing greenhouse gases induce a notable Indian Ocean warming, causing a westward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and a southward displacement of the East Asia westerly jet (EAJ) on an interdecadal timescale, leading to more precipitation in Yangtze River valley. At the same time the surface cooling effects from the stronger convection, higher precipitation and rapidly increasing anthropogenic aerosols contribute to a reduced summer land&ndash;sea thermal contrast. Due to the changes in the WPSH, the EAJ and the land&ndash;sea thermal contrast, the East Asian summer monsoon weakened resulting in drought in northern China. Consequently, an anomalous precipitation pattern started to emerge over eastern China in the late 1970s. According to the model, the natural forcing played an opposite role in regulating the changes in WPSH and EAJ, and postponed the anthropogenically forced climate changes in eastern China. The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature is crucial to the response, and acts as a bridge to link the external forcings and East Asian summer climate together on a decadal and longer timescales. Our results further highlight the dominant roles of anthropogenic forcing agents in shaping interdecadal changes of the East Asian climate during the second half of the 20th century

7) Wang, T., and H.J. Wang, 2013: Mid-Holocene Asian summer climate and its responses to cold ocean surface simulated in the PMIP2 OAGCMs experiments . Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 4117-4128 <摘要>

     In this study, we investigated changes in Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea surface temperature simulated by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) muitlmodels and reconstructed by the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) project, focusing on the model-data comparison. The results showed that the PMIP models produced greater ocean cooling in the North Pacific and Tropical Ocean than that in the MARGO, particularly in the Northwestern Pacific, where the model-data mismatch was larger. All the models failed to capture the anomalous east-west SST gradient in the North Atlantic. In addition, large discrepancies among the models could be observed in the mid-latitude ocean, particularly for the models in the second phase of the PMIP. Although they gave some better agreement with the MARGO, the latest models in the third phase of the PMIP could not show substantial progresses in simulating the LGM ocean surface condition. That is, the improvements in the modeling community were still needed to describe the SST in order to better understand climate during the LGM.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

8) Liu Jiping, Judith A. Curry, Wang Huijun , Mirong Song, and Radley M. Horton, 2012: Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci, DOI:10.1073/, pnas.1114910109, <摘要>

    While the Arctic region has been warming strongly in recent decades,anomalously large snowfall in recent winters has affected large parts of North America, Europe, and east Asia. Here we demonstrate that the decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation that have some resemblance to the negative phase of the winter Arctic oscillation. However, the atmospheric circulation change linked to the reduction of sea ice shows much broader meridional meanders in midlatitudes and clearly different interannual variability than the classical Arctic oscillation. This circulation change results in more frequent episodes of blocking patterns that lead to increased cold surges over large parts of northern continents. Moreover, the increase in atmospheric water vapor content in the Arctic region during late autumn and winter driven locally by the reduction of sea ice provides enhanced moisture sources, supporting increased heavy snowfall in Europe during early winter and the northeastern and midwestern United States during winter. We conclude that the recent decline of Arctic sea ice has played a critical role in recent cold and snowy winters.</div>

9) Yan, Q., Zhang, Z. S., Wang, H. J., Gao, Y. Q., and Zheng, W. P., 2012: Set-up and preliminary_ results of Middle Pliocene climate simulations with CAM3.1. Geosci. Model Dev, 5, 289-297 <摘要>

     上新世中期,大约3.264~3.025百万年前,气候与是未来全球变暖背景下的气候非常类似。因此,我们采用CAM3.1大气模式,利用PRISM3D边界场,对这一时期展开了模拟研究。模拟结果表明上新世中期全球气温比工业革命前大约高2.0摄氏度。这种增温在两极地区非常显著,而在低纬度地区却很小,从而造成全球气温南北梯度的减小。同时,上新世中期全球平均降水增加了3.6%,降水的变化在热带地区最为显著。</div>

10) Zhang,Z.S., F. Flatoy, H.J. Wang, I. Bethke, M. Bentsen, Z.T. Guo, 2012: Early Eocene Asian climate dominated by desert and steppe with limited monsoons. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 44, 24-35 <摘要>

    古气候重建显示,古近纪(大约35-60百万年之前)亚洲的气候格局是一种带状格局。一条宽广的带状干旱带/半干旱带控制着我国大部分地区。然而,以前的研究并没有揭示这条带状干旱带/半干旱带的形成机制。在这篇新的文章中,我们用全球大气模式,在更好的古地理重建条件下,模拟了早始新世50百万年前亚洲气候;并考虑古气候对轨道参数,地形,植被和海温及大气CO2浓度的敏感性。我们模拟显示,一条年降水量小于800mm的带状干旱/半干旱带纬向分布在古北纬20至40度之间。根据柯本气候分类,这条干旱带属于沙漠(BWh)和草原(BSh)气候。类似于地中海气候出现在我国西北内陆及中亚。这一模拟结果与已有的古气候格局重建相一致。模拟表明,这一宽广的带状干旱带形成的主要原因是受到50百万年前副热带高压的控制。由于50百万年前,全球温度大约比现代高出12摄氏度,副热带的分布范围比现代更加靠北;当时的高温使得干旱带的分布范围变宽,其北界可以达到古北纬40度附近。敏感性试验表明,地球轨道参数的变化,是最有可能在当时放大海陆热力差异并加强季风环流的因素;季风气候可以 在早始新世短暂出现,但对于整个早始新世气候来说,并不起主导作用。<br /> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 这一研究,使得我们对古近纪亚洲古气候的理解更加完善。过去我们一般认为,在带状气候格局下,季风气候是不可能存在的。但这个研究证明,在带状气候格局下,季风气候可以短暂出现,虽然它并不起主导作用。</div>

11) 贺圣平,王会军, 2012: 东亚冬季风综合指数及其表达的东亚冬季风年际变化特征. 大气科学, 36(3), 523-538 <摘要>

    本文通过多变量经验正交函数展开(multivariate EOF,简称 MV-EOF)研究了东亚冬季风各系统成员的协同关系,再运用单变量EOF定义单个系统的强度系数。从而给出能够反映东亚冬季风各主要特征及其年际变化、同时包含西伯利亚高压、东亚大槽和纬向风经向切变信息的强度指数(EAWMII)。分析表明,这个新指数EAWMII能够很好地反映东亚冬季风在20世纪80年代中期的减弱信号,并且与大气环流场以及东亚冬季表面温度的变化均显著相关,能够在很大程度上表征东亚冬季风的综合特征。此外,EAWMII与北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation, 简称AO)指数、北太平洋涛动(North Pacific Oscillation, 简称NPO)指数和Ni&ntilde;o3.4指数相关显著。分析还表明AO和NPO影响东亚冬季气候的区域有所不同:AO主要影响欧亚大陆中、高纬、我国东北以及日本北部等地区,NPO则主要影响华南、华东、朝鲜、韩国以及日本中南部及其附近海域。并且,AO很可能可以通过影响NPO进而影响东亚冬季风。</p> </div>

12) Wang, T., O.H. Otterå, Y.Q. Gao, and H.J. Wang, 2012: The response of the North Pacific Decadal Variability to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1373-5, <摘要>

     通过对过去600年数值模拟的研究发现,热带强烈火山喷发和太阳辐射变化等自然外强迫对北太平洋年代际振荡起着非常重要的调制作用。其中,热带强烈火山喷发会引起赤道&mdash;极地平流层底部温度梯度增加,进而导致极涡显著增强,北极出现显著正AO模态。同时,由此产生的环流异常通过对流层反馈作用下传,进一步引起北太平洋近地层环流变化,北太平洋海平面气压显著升高;另一方面,表层环流异常导致北太平洋表层热通量和洋流变化,大量暖水在副热带西北太平洋堆积并被异常的潜热感热通量加热,而东北太平洋和高纬度北太平洋在暖洋流减弱和表层热通量冷却的共同作用下SST显著降低。通过一系列的作用之后,北太平洋进入PDO的负位相,并维持几年时间。同时,这一模式结果揭示了对流层&mdash;平流层耦合、热带&mdash;热带外遥相关和中高纬度海气相互作用对描述北太平洋年代际振荡的重要作用。</div>

13) Li, F., and H. J. Wang, 2012: Predictability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Interannual Variability as Indicated by the DEMETER CGCMS. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 29(3), 441–454 <摘要>

    文章定义了一个新的东亚冬季风强度指数, 以此研究了东亚冬季风年际变化及其伴随的大气环流场及表面温度场特征, 并评估了DEMETER耦合模式模拟这些特征的能力,得到以下结果:(1)基于东亚冬季850hPa层温度场特征,提出了一个能够合理刻画东亚冬季风强度的新指数,多模式集合对该指数的模拟能力优于单个模式。(2)东亚冬季风强度指数在1969-2001年间有明显的年际变化,强(弱)季风年东亚地区东西向海平面气压差加大(减小);850 hPa层盛行西北风距平(西风带环流偏强),500 hPa层和200 hPa层分别对应强(弱)的东亚大槽和强(弱)的西风急流;东亚北部大部分地区温度下降(升高)。同时,自20世纪80年代中后期有显著的年代际减弱,强季风年大气环流场和表面温度场异常偏弱,而弱季风年大气环流和表面温度异常偏强。(3)多模式集合对上述特征具有一定的模拟能力,其模拟的空间分布特征与再分析非常一致,差别主要在于中心强度和位置。比较而言,多模式集合对20世纪80年代中后期弱季风年的模拟相对较差一些,这主要是因为后一个时段弱季风年大气环流场和表面温度场异常较其它3组弱,在一定程度上增加了模式模拟的难度。<br /> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 此外,上述分析还表明,北太平洋区域为研究东亚冬季风强度变化的关键区域,北太平洋表面温度变化对同期东亚冬季风强弱有着显著的影响。我们认为模式对太平洋海温/ENSO较好的可预报性增强了东亚季风区的气候可预测度。</p> </div>

14) Sun, J. Q., and H. J. Wang, 2012: Changes of the connection between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Asian summer rainfall. J. Geophys. Res, 117, D08110, doi:10.1029/2012JD017482 <摘要>

    本文主要研究了夏季北大西洋涛动与东亚夏季降水的关系。结果发现,北大西洋涛动模态在20世纪70年代末的年代际突变显著地加强了其对东亚夏季降水的影响,造成东亚中部和北部地区夏季降水南北向偶极异常分布的模态。进一步,作者对于这其中的物理机制作了诊断分析,发现夏季北大西洋涛动模态在年代际突变后,可以改变欧亚大陆上空的纬向遥相关波列,从而造成东亚地区大气环流和水汽条件的异常,最终影响到东亚地区夏季降水的变化

15) Wang, S., E. Yu, and H. Wang, 2012: A simulation study of a heavy rainfall process over the Yangtze River valley using the two-way nesting approach. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 29(4), 731-743 <摘要>

    本文用观测资料结合模拟结果分析了2011年6月3日至7日降水过程的背景环流及其可预报性。西南暖湿气流与北方南下冷空气交汇在我国长江中下游地区,造成该地区出现连续强降水过程。6~7日,东北低涡加强,给长江中下游带来更多冷空气,长江中下游切变线南移,雨带也相应南移并减弱。本研究通过两层嵌套模拟的方法,再现了暴雨特征及其局地和大范围背景环流。该试验模拟出了3~7日全国主要降水区域;模拟出了长江中下游地区切变线的演变过程;模拟出了最强的降水区域平均的日降水量的时间演变,尽管模拟的降水略多于观测的降水。</div>

16) Chen, Huopo, Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang, 2012: A Statistical Downscaling Model for Forecasting Summer Rainfall in China from DEMETER Hindcast Datasets. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 608–628 <摘要>

    基于DEMETER耦合模式回报资料,本文发展了一种能有效改进耦合模式预测能力的统计降尺度方法,该方法的核心思想为:基于观测资料,利用耦合模式模拟最好的、最稳定的且与降水有一定物理联系的预测因子进行建模,而后对降水进行预测。本文将该方法应用于我国夏季降水的短期气候预测,并利用交叉检验和独立样本检验对该方法的预测性能进行验证。通过对相关系数、距平相关系数(ACC)、均方根误差(RMSE)和方差的比较,结果表明,相比耦合模式直接回报结果,该方法可以显著提高我国夏季降水的预测技巧。各台站相关系数显著增加,降水年际变率增强,RMSE显著减少,而且能够合理地预测我国夏季降水的极端年份。另外,它也能够合理预测我国每年夏季降水的空间分布特征。7个耦合模式1980-2001年平均的ACCs由耦合模式直接回报的0.00~0.11增加到了0.46~0.53, RMSEs相对减少了40.4%~53.6%。多模式集合预测结果明显优于单个模式,多年平均的ACC由0.10增加到了0.71,RMSE相对减少了49.1%。因此,多模式集合的统计降尺度方法在短期气候业务预测领域具有潜在的应用意义。</div>

17) Wang H.J. and S.P. He, 2012: Weakening Relationship between East Asian Winter Monsoon and ENSO after mid-1970s. Chinese Science Bulletin, doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5285-x, <摘要>

    本文基于NCEP、NOAA再分析观测资料分析了东亚冬季风、ENSO及其相关的大气-海洋变率,结果表明自上世纪70年代以后,东亚冬季风与ENSO间的联系明显减弱。70年代以前,两者呈显著的反位相变化;而70年代以后,反位相变化不再显著。深入的分析表明,热带印度洋-西太平洋地区与ENSO有关的变率的减弱可能是上述年际联系减弱的原因。同时,东亚冬季风年际变率的减弱以及与东亚冬季风有关的气候变率北撤也可能导致ENSO与东亚冬季风联系的减弱。</div>

18) Huanlian Li, Huijun Wang, Yizhou Yin, 2012: Interdecadal variation of the West African summer monsoon during 1979–2010 and associated variability. Clim Dyn, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1426-9, <摘要>

    本文指出20世纪70年代末之后至今西非夏季风存在一次年代际增强的变化,并采用统计诊断分析及数值模拟方法对其可能成因进行了探讨。结果表明,在1998年后西非夏季风开始增强、西非西部夏季降水整体上开始增多。在这次年代尺度变化中,西非季风区垂直上升运动偏强,对应高层辐散强,低层辐合强,利于季风局地环流的发展。低层西南风偏强,高层东风偏强,进而使得更多来自大西洋及几内亚湾的水汽被输送到西非大陆。此外,北大西洋副热带高压偏强偏北,热带东风也偏强。统计分析得出春季NAO偏弱,热带东风偏强,进而西非季风偏强,然而从北大西洋SST敏感性数值试验看来,NAO对西非夏季风年代际变化的影响并不明显。从海表面温度变化来看,北太平洋副热带地区、南太平洋和北大西洋SST均有明显增暖趋势,数值模拟试验和资料分析表明,北太平洋SST变化对最近这次的西非夏季风年代际变化起着重要作用。</div>

19) Wang, H. J., and H. P. Chen, 2012: Climate control for southeastern China moisture and precipitation: Indian or East Asian monsoon?. J. Geophys. Res, 117, D12109, doi:10.1029/2012JD017734 <摘要>

    In this study, the water vapor sources for the precipitation processes in southeastern China (SECN) during 1981&ndash;2010 were investigated using atmospheric reanalysis data. We also studied the factors influencing the summer atmospheric moisture over SECN. These two issues are all closely related to the climate signals recorded in stalagmites recovered from caves in SECN. Result supports that the atmospheric water vapor over SECN during the whole summer time is primarily transported from the Indian Ocean. However, the vertically integrated water vapor content throughout the year in SECN has two main sources: the Indian Ocean and the tropical western Pacific. In addition, the water vapor transport for the precipitation processes in SECN has complex vertical structure. At approximately 700 hPa to 500 hPa, part of the water vapor for the precipitation in SECN comes from the Arab-Caspian region. Finally, the water vapor content over SECN is regulated primarily by both the Indian and East Asian monsoons. Further analysis indicated that the variability of the East Asian summer monsoon is substantially regulated by the western Pacific subtropical high, the Eurasia&ndash;Atlantic thermal conditions, as well as the large-scale Eurasia-Atlantic atmospheric circulation. Therefore, the SECN Cave proxies can record the signals from faraway middle and high latitude Eurasia-Atlantic climate, besides the regional East Asian monsoon and remote Indian monsoon.</div>

20) MA JieHua, WANG HuiJun, ZHANG Ying, 2012: Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future? The AGCM simulation under summer ‘ice-free Arctic’ conditions,. China Science Bulletin, 57(8), 921-926 <摘要>

   Recently, frequent snowstorms have occurred during the winter, causing large economic losses and attracting wide attention. In particular, these snowstorms have raised an important scientific question: under the scenarios of future global warming, will winter precipitation in China increase significantly and produce more snow in the north? Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP 3) models&rsquo; projections under the SRES A1B scenario, we generated a possible future Arctic condition, the summer (September) &lsquo;ice-free Arctic&rsquo; condition, and then used the corresponding monthly sea surface temperature (SST) values and the set of CO2 concentrations to drive an AGCM model to simulate the resulting East Asian climate change.<br /> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The experimental results show that during the boreal winter (DJF), the global surface air temperature would increase significantly under this scenario and produce substantial warming in the Arctic regions and in the high latitudes of Asia and North America. The Siberian High, Aleutian Low and East Asian winter monsoon would all be weakened. However, due to the increased transport of water vapor to China from the north, the winter precipitation would increase from south to north. In addition, the significant increase in the winter temperature might cause fewer cold surges to occur.</div>

21) 何晏春,郜永祺, 王会军,Johannessen M Ola,于雷, 2012: 2011年3月日本福岛核电站核泄漏在海洋中的传输. 海洋学报, 34, 12-20 <摘要>

    使用全球版本的迈阿密等密度海洋环流模式对2011年3月日本福岛核电站泄漏在海洋中的传输以及扩散进行了数值模拟。数值模式中核废料(示踪物)排放情景采取等通量连续排放,排放时间从3月25日开始,分别持续20d以及1a,两种情形分别积分20a。为了减少海洋环流年际变化带来的数值模拟的的不确定性,20a的模式积分分别用2010年、1991-2011年、1971-1991年以及1951-1971年4个不同时段的NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料作为大气强迫场,因此每种排放情形包含4个数值试验。模拟结果的分析表明,不同核废料排放情景及其在不同时段大气资料对海洋模式的驱动下,模拟的示踪物总体的传输扩散路径(包括表层以及次表层)、传输速率以及垂直扩展的范围没有显著的差异。集合平均数值模拟的结果显示:在两种排放情景下,日本福岛核泄漏在海洋的传输路径受北太平洋副热带涡旋洋流系统主导,其传输路径首先主要向东,到达东太平洋后,再向南向西扩散至西太平洋,可能在10-15a左右影响到我国东部沿海海域,且海洋次表层的传输信号比表层信号早5a左右。通过进一步分析模式积分过程中最大示踪物浓度随时间变化发现,在积分第20a(2031年3月),海洋表层和次表层浓度的最高值分别只有模式积分第一年浓度的0.1% 和1%。在积分的20a里,排放的核废料主要滞留在北太平洋海域(超过86% &plusmn;1.5%的核废料在积分结束时,滞留在北太平洋),而在积分的前10a(2021年之前),几乎所有的核废料滞留在北太平洋;在核废料的垂直分布上,主要集中在海洋表层至600m 的深度,在积分的20a时间里,没有核废料信号扩散至1000m 以下的深度。数值模拟的结果也表明核废料浓度减弱的强度以及演变的时间特征主要受洋流系统的影响,与排放源的排放时间长短关系不大。值得指出的是,更加准确地评估一个真实的核泄漏事故对海洋环境所造成的可能影响,还需要考虑大气中的放射性物质的沉降以及海洋生态对核物质的响应。</div>

22) 黄艳艳,王会军, 2012: 欧亚地区夏季大气环流年际变化的关键区及亚洲夏季风的关联信号. 地球物理学报, 55(7), 2227-2238 <摘要>

    本文利用资料分析和数值模拟方法研究了欧亚地区夏季大气环流的相关性及其与亚洲夏季风的关联信号,以期为欧亚地区的气候变异及可预测性研究提供科学依据。结果表明:欧亚区域同期(JJA)500百帕高度场年际变化的关键区包括热带区、中纬度的贝加尔湖和巴尔喀什湖之间以及欧洲地中海附近地区;表面气温的关键区主要位于热带海洋;海平面气压的关键区包括热带的海洋性大陆区域、印度洋和非洲大陆赤道附近部分区域、中高纬的贝加尔湖与巴尔喀什湖之间的地区。另外,夏季大气环流年际变化的春季关键区明显西移/南退,特别是表面气温(其西太平洋区不再是关键区)。公用气候系统模式CCSM4.0的大气模式在给定海温年际变化的情况下对于上述大气环流相关场及其关键区的模拟基本合理,其中500百帕高度场的模拟结果较好,海平面气压场的结果逊之;对于同期和前期的结果,模式都有夸大西太平洋海温影响的倾向。对于东亚夏季风指数与大气环流的同期年际变化信号而言,其空间分布基本表现为以30&deg;N为界呈西南东北向的波列状分布;其春季前期信号中,30&deg;N以南的显著区几乎都位于海洋,30&deg;N以北主要位于欧洲、巴尔喀什湖与贝加尔湖之间的地区。南亚夏季风指数的前期显著相关区比同期,明显西移/南退。总之,模式的模拟结果和观测结果相当吻合,但其同期模拟结果比前期的更好一些。这些结果说明:模式对于大气环流年际变化的耦合变化信息的刻画是基本合理的,这为利用气候模式进行有关可预测性研究和降尺度预测研究奠定了基础。</div>

23) He Shengping, Wang Huijun, 2012: Analysis of the decadal and interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon as simulated by 20 coupled models in IPCC AR4. Acta Meteor. Sinica, 26(4), 476-488 <摘要>

    基于IPCC AR4中20个海气耦合模式的模拟结果以及NCEP观测资料,分析了这些模式对东亚冬季风要素场(海平面气压场、850-hPa风场和表面温度场)的气候平均态、突变时期季风环流场的减弱趋势以及突变前后季风环流场的年代变化的模拟能力。结果表明,有16个模式能够模拟出20世纪80年代中期东亚冬季风的减弱趋势;过半的模式合理再现了突变时期季风环流场的变化趋势以及突变前后的年代际差异,即西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压减弱,北极涛动、北太平洋涛动增强,东亚大槽减弱以及极涡加深。相对于单个模式,多模式集合平均能更好地再现季风环流异常场的空间分布,但是模拟的变化幅度普遍较观测结果小。此外,BCCR-BCM2.0,CGCM3.1-T63,CNRM-CM3,CSIRO-MK3.0,GISS-ER,INM-CM3.0和MRI-CGCM2.3.2表现出对东亚冬季风较为全面的模拟能力。</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

24) Wang, Huijun, 2011: A new prediction model for tropical storm frequency over the western North Pacific using observed winter-spring precipitation and geopotential height at 500 hPa. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 25(3), 262-271 <摘要>

    A new seasonal prediction model for annual tropical storm numbers (ATSNs) over the western North Pacific was developed using the preceding January-February (JF) and April-May (AM) grid-point data at a resolution of 2.5&deg;&times;2:5&deg;. The JF and AM mean precipitation and the AM mean 500-hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere, together with the JF mean 500-hPa geopotential height in the Southern Hemisphere, were employed to compose the ATSN forecast model via the stepwise multiple linear regression technique. All JF and AM mean data were confined to the Eastern Hemisphere. We established two empirical prediction models for ATSN using the ERA40 reanalysis and NCEP reanalysis datasets, respectively, together with the observed precipitation. The performance of the models was verified by cross-validation. Anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) at 0.78 and 0.74 were obtained via comparison of the retrospective predictions of the two models and the observed ATSNs from 1979 to 2002. The multiyear mean absolute prediction errors were 3.0 and 3.2 for the two models respectively, or roughly 10% of the average ATSN. In practice, the final prediction was made by averaging the ATSN predictions of the two models. This resulted in a higher score, with ACC being further increased to 0.88, and the mean absolute error reduced to 1.92, or 6.13% of the average ATSN.</div>

25) 燕青,张仲石,王会军,姜大膀,郑伟鹏, 2011: 上新世中期海洋表面温度变化及其与古气候重建数据对比. 科学通报, 6, 423-432 <摘要>

    上新世中期, 过去约3.29~2.97 Ma 之间, 是地质历史上距今最近的一个持续性暖期.它与模式预测的21 世纪末地球系统最有可能达到的气候态具有一定的可比性. 因此, 研究该时期气候变化对于理解全球变暖背景下的气候变化趋势具有重要的参考作用. 采用最新的PRISM3 重建数据集, 利用FOAM 耦合模式开展了上新世中期的全球气候模拟, 并对上新世中期次极地北大西洋剧烈增暖和&ldquo;永久的El Ni?o&rdquo;两个热点问题进行了讨论. 模拟结果表明: 与工业革命前相比, 上新世中期年平均海洋表面温度(SST)升高了2.3℃, 中高纬度海洋的增温幅度大于低纬度海洋, 赤道太平洋SST 东西梯度减小以及大西洋经向翻转环流减弱. 在SST 变化的空间格局上, 模拟结果与重建结果基本一致. FOAM 也能较好地模拟出北大西洋、北太平洋以及南美西海岸的显著增暖, 但模拟的次极地北大西洋和赤道太平洋SST 的变化与重建数据仍有差别. 上述重建与模拟的差异是由古气候数据重建的不确定性、上新世中期模拟的困难以及模式本身的不完善共同造成的.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

26) 孙建奇,王会军,袁薇, 2011: 我国极端高温事件的年代际变化及其与大气环流的联系. 气候与环境研究, 16(2), 199-208 <摘要>

    利用1957~2004年全国181个气象台站观测逐日最高气温,分析了我国年平均极端高温事件(Extreme Hot Events,EHE)日数、强度、最早发生日期(EHE Onset Date, EHE_OD)和最迟发生日期(EHE Termination Date,EHE_TD)的气候态及年代际变化的时空特征。气候态分析结果显示,EHE的主要高发区位于我国东南部和新疆地区,其年际变率的较大区主要位于我国东部,新疆地区相对较小。我国EHE在过去48年中存在明显的年代际变化特征,其中发生日数与强度变化一致,EHE_OD和EHE_TD的变化相类似。按照EHE的时空变化特征,可将我国分为南部、中部、北方东部和北方西部4个区。南部地区EHE的多发期主要集中在20世纪60和80年代,中部地区为60和90年代,北方地区为90年代。进而对造成这4个区域EHE发生异常的年际和年代际大气环流因子进行分析,结果表明影响其年际和年代际变化的大气环流型是一致的。对北方地区而言,影响因子主要是对流层中高层的位势高度异常;而影响我国中部和南部地区的因子,除了其上空中高层的位势高度异常外,低层冷暖平流输送的作用也非常重要,这两个因子的共同作用造成该地EHE的异常。</div>

27) 马洁华,王会军,张颖, 2011: 北极夏季无海冰状态时的东亚气候变化数值模拟研究. 气候变化研究进展, 7 (3), 162-170 <摘要>

    利用CMIP3模式在IPCC SRES A1B情景下对未来气候的预测结果,得到北极夏季无海冰的一种情况,即&ldquo;free Arctic&rdquo;。利用相应的海温场和CO2含量驱动全球大气环流模式,模拟北极夏季无海冰时的东亚气候。试验结果表明,夏季北极无海冰时,全球表面气温有不同程度的明显升高,高纬地区升温幅度大于低纬地区,同纬度地区陆地大于海洋。海平面气压场表现为陆地上一致性的降低以及副热带海洋和南极洲边缘部分海域的升高。此外,东亚夏季风环流明显增强,季风区降水明显增多。</div>

28) Yue, X., Liao, H., Wang, H. J., Li, S. L., and Tang, J. P, 2011: Role of sea surface temperature responses in simulation of the climatic effect of mineral dust aerosol,. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, 6049-6062 <摘要>

    Mineral dust aerosol can be transported over the nearby oceans and influence the energy balance at the sea surface. The role of dust-induced sea surface temperature (SST) responses in simulations of the climatic effect of dust is examined by using a general circulation model with online simulation of mineral dust and a coupled mixed-layer ocean model. Both the longwave and shortwave radiative effects of mineral dust aerosol are considered in climate simulations. The SST responses are found to be very influential on simulated dust-induced climate change, especially when climate simulations consider the two-way dust-climate coupling to account for the feedbacks. With prescribed SSTs and dust concentrations, we obtain an increase of 0.02 K in the global and annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) in response to dust radiative effects. In contrast, when SSTs are allowed to respond to radiative forcing of dust in the presence of the dust cycle-climate interactions, we obtain a global and annual mean cooling of 0.09 K in SAT by dust. The extra cooling simulated with the SST responses can be attributed to the following two factors: (1) The negative net radiative forcing of dust at the surface reduces SST, which decreases latent heat fluxes and upward transport of water vapor, resulting in less warming in the atmosphere; (2) The positive feedback between SST responses and dust cycle. The dust-induced reductions in SST lead to reductions in precipitation (or wet deposition of dust) and hence increase the global burden of small dust particles. These small particles have strong scattering effects, which enhance the dust cooling at the surface and further reduce SSTs.</div>

29) Yue, X., Wang, H. J., Liao, H., and Jiang, D. B, 2011: Simulation of the direct radiative effect of mineral dust aerosol on the climate at the Last Glacial Maximum. Journal of Climate, 24, 843-858 <摘要>

    The climatic responses to the direct radiative effect of dust aerosol at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are examined using a general circulation model with online simulation of dust. The predicted global dust emission at the LGM is 2.3 times as large as the present-day value, which is the combined effect of the expansion of dust sources and the favorable meteorological parameters (MPs, such as the strong surface wind and the low air humidity) under the LGM climate. Simulated global dust emission is 1966 Tg yr-1 with present-day dust sources and MPs, 2820 Tg yr-1 with LGM dust sources and current MPs, 2599 Tg yr-1 with present-day dust sources and LGM MPs, and 4579 Tg yr-1 with LGM sources and MPs. The simulated percentage increases of dust concentrations are the largest at high latitudes in both hemispheres, which are consistent with the deposition data from geological records. The LGM dust is estimated to exert global annual mean shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcings (RF) of, respectively, -4.69 W m-2 and +1.70 W m-2 at the surface, and -0.58 W m-2 and + 0.68 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere. On a global and annual mean basis, surface air temperature (SAT) is predicted to be reduced by 0.18 K and precipitation is reduced by 0.06 mm day-1, as a result of the net (SW and LW) radiative effect of dust at the LGM. Two sensitivity studies are performed to identify the uncertainties in simulated climatic effect of LGM dust that arise from the assumed LW and/or SW absorption by dust: (1) in the absence of dust LW radiative effect, the LGM global and annual mean SAT is predicted to be further reduced by 0.19 K; and (2) when the single scattering albedo of the Saharan dust at 0.55 &mu;m is increased from 0.89 to 0.98 in the LGM climate simulation, the LGM dust-induced annual and global mean surface cooling increases from 0.18 K to 0.63 K even with both SW and LW radiative effects of dust. In these two sensitivity studies, the LGM dust is predicted to induce an average cooling of, respectively, 0.42 and 0.72 K in SAT over the tropical oceans.</div>

30) Wang Huijun, Yu Entao, Yang Song, 2011: An exceptionally heavy snowfall in Northeast China: large-scale circulation anomalies and hindcast of the NCAR WRF model. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys, 113, 11-25 <摘要>

    In Northeast China (NEC), snowfalls usually occur during winter and early spring, from mid-October to late March, and strong snowfalls rarely occur in middle spring. During 12&ndash;13 April 2010, an exceptionally strong snowfall occurred in NEC, with 26.8 mm of accumulated water-equivalent snow over Harbin, the capital of the most eastern province in NEC. In this study, the major features of the snowfall and associated large-scale circulation and the predictability of the snowfall are analyzed using both observations and models. The Siberia High intensified and shifted southeastward from 10 days before the snowfall, resulting in intensifying the low-pressure system over NEC and strengthening the East Asian Trough during 12&ndash;13 April. Therefore, large convergence of water vapor and strong rising motion appeared over eastern NEC, resulting in heavy snowfall. Hindcast experiments were carried out using the NCAR Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in a two-way nesting approach, forced by NCEP Global Forecast System data sets. Many observed features including the large-scale and regional circulation anomalies and snowfall amount can be reproduced reasonably well, suggesting the feasibility of the WRF model in forecasting extreme weather events over NEC. A quantitative analysis also shows that the nested NEC domain simulation is even better than mother domain simulation in simulating the snowfall amount and spatial distribution, and that both simulations are more skillful than the NCEP Global Forecast System output. The forecast result from the nested forecast system is very promising for an operational purpose.</div>

31) WANG Huijun and ZHANG Ying, 2010: Model Projections of East Asia Summer Climate under the ‘Free Arctic’ Scenario. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 3(3), 176-180 <摘要>

    This paper addresses the &lsquo;ice-free Arctic&rsquo; issue under the future global warming scenario. Four coupled climate models used in the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were selected to project summer climate conditions over East Asia once the Arctic becomes ice-free. The models project that an ice-free Arctic summer will begin in the 2060s under the SRESA1B (according to IPCC Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios) simulations. Our results show that the East Asian summer monsoons will tend to be stronger and that the water vapor transport to central northern China will be strengthened, leading to increased summer precipitation in central northern China. The models also project an intensified Antarctic Oscillation, a condition which favors increased precipitation in South China&rsquo;s Yangtze River Valley. The overall precipitation in Northwest China is projected to increase under ice-free Arctic summer conditions.</div>

32) Xu Yue, Huijun Wang, Hong Liao and Ke Fan, 2010: Simulation of dust aerosol radiative feedback using the GMOD:2. Dust-climate interactions. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 115, D04201, doi:10.1029/2009JD012063 <摘要>

    We examine equilibrium climate responses to the shortwave and/or longwave direct radiative effect of mineral dust aerosol using the Global transport Model of Dust (GMOD) embedded within a general circulation model (GCM). The presence of mineral dust aerosol in the atmosphere is estimated to exert global mean shortwave and longwave radiative forcings (RF) of -0.25 W m-2 and +0.27 W m-2, respectively, at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and -1.95 W m-2 and +0.61 W m-2 at the surface. Climatic effect of dust is simulated using two different approaches. In the first approach, monthly mean fields of dust simulated a priori are used in the radiative transfer module of the GCM to drive climate change, with levels of dust fixed during the climate integration (denoted as simulation FIXDST). In the second approach, dust aerosol interacts online with meteorology through the dust cycle and its direct radiative effect (denoted as simulation CPLD). With both longwave and shortwave RF of dust, predicted changes in global and annual mean surface air temperature and air temperature at 200 hPa are zero and +0.12 K, respectively, in FIXDST, and -0.06 K and +0.05 K in the CPLD simulation. The stronger cooling in CPLD than in FIXDST is a result of a 13% higher dust burden in CPLD with dust-climate interactions. Although dust longwave radiative effect is predicted to offset a large portion of its shortwave effect on a global and annual mean basis, dust shortwave effect dominates during the daytime, and the longwave effect prevails at night, which is found to be very important for predictions of temperature. For example, over the Sahara Desert, the changes in annual mean, annual mean daytime, and annual mean nighttime surface air temperature are predicted to be +0.32 K, -0.11 K, and +0.68 K, respectively, in the FIXDST simulation. The longwave and shortwave radiative effects of dust are predicted to have different impacts on the dust cycle in CPLD simulation; the solar radiative effect reduces dust emissions by increasing surface humidity and by reducing surface wind speed, while the thermal effect increases dust uplift through opposite changes in the meteorological parameters.</div>

33) Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang and Wei Yuan,, 2010: Linkage of the Boreal Spring Antarctic Oscillation to the West African Summer Monsoon. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 88, 15-28 <摘要>


The relationship between the boreal spring (or the austral autumn) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) (March– April) and the West African summer monsoon (WASM) (June–September) is analyzed based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results show that the linkage of the boreal spring AAO to the WASM exhibits decadal-scale variations: a strong connection between the two appears over the period 1985–2006 and a weak connection over the period 1970–1984. Further analysis indicates that such an unstable relationship between the two results from the modulation by ENSO events to a large extent.

 

A possible mechanism for the impacts of the boreal spring AAO on the WASM is also discussed. The variability of the boreal spring tropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) appears to serve as a bridge linking these two systems. The boreal spring AAO produces an anomalous SST over the tropical South Atlantic by exciting an equatorward Rossby wave train over the western Southern Hemisphere (SH). This AAO-related SST anomaly modulates the meridional gradient of moist static energy (MSE) between the Sahel and the Guinea-tropical Atlantic region in the boreal spring. The MSE gradient is of paramount importance for the changes from spring to summer in the West African monsoon because its relaxation along the seasonal cycle is linked to the northward excursion of the WASM system into the African continent. Therefore, an anomalous AAO-related MSE gradient can lead to anomalous Sahel rainfall in the early summer. When this rainfall occurs over the Sahel, the local positive soil moisture-rainfall feedback plays a crucial role in sustaining and prolonging this rainfall anomaly throughout the whole summer.
   

34) Yali Zhu, Huijun Wang, Wen Zhou, Jiehua Ma, 2010: Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0852-9, <摘要>

    This study documents the decadal changes of the summer precipitation in East China, with increased rainfall in the Huang-Huai River region (HR) and decreased in the Yangtze River region (YR) during 2000&ndash;2008 in comparison to 1979&ndash;1999. The main features of the atmospheric circulation related to the increased precipitation in the HR are the strengthened ascending motion and slightly increased air humidity, which is partly due to the weakened moisture transport out of the HR to the western tropical Pacific (associated with the weakened westerly over East Asia and the warming center over the Lake Baikal). The rainfall decrease in the YR is related to the weakened ascending motion and reduced water vapor content, which is mainly related to the weakened southwesterly moisture flux into the YR (associated with the eastward recession of the Western Pacific Subtropical High). The global sea surface temperature (SST) also shows significant changes during 2000&ndash;2008 relative to 1979&ndash;1999. The shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) to a negative phase probably induces the warming over the Lake Baikal and the weakened westerly jet through the air-sea interaction in the Pacific, and thus changes the summer precipitation pattern in East China. Numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model, with prescribed all-Pacific SST anomalies of 2000&ndash;2008 relative to 1979&ndash;1999, also lend support to the PDO&rsquo;s contribution to the warming over the Lake Baikal and the weakened westerlies over East China.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

35) 王会军,张颖,郎咸梅, 2010: 论短期气候预测的对象问题. 气候与环境研究, 15(3), 225-228 <摘要>

    基于气候变化的物理过程和数学方面的考虑,讨论了短期气候预测的对象问题。短期气候预测对我国具有重大的经济和社会价值,但也是非常困难的科学难题和科学工程。传统的把气候距平作为预测对象的方法并不一定具有科学严谨性和应用上的高效性。因此提出把气候年际增量作为新的预测对象,并从数学物理考虑上进行了讨论。最后,基于一个气候模式的预测试验,实际检验了新的预测对象方案的效果。</div>

36) WANG Huijun and QIAN Zhuolei, 2010: A potential high-score Scheme for the seasonal prediction of Atlantic storm activity. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 3(2), 116−119 <摘要>

    A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January&minus;February and April&minus;May. The 2.5&deg;&times;2.5&deg; resolution reanalysis data from both the US National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) were applied. The model was cross-validated using data from 1979&minus;2002. The ATSN predictions from the two reanalysis models were correlated with the observations with the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) of 0.79 (NCEP/NCAR) and 0.78 (ECMWF) and the multi-year mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) of 1.85 and 1.76, respectively. When the predictions of the two models were averaged, the ACC increased to 0.90 and the MAE decreased to 1.18, an exceptionally high score. Therefore, this new empirical approach has the potential to improve the operational prediction of the annual tropical Atlantic storm frequency.</div> </div>

37) Xianmei Lang and Huijun Wang, 2010: Improving Extraseasonal Summer Rainfall Prediction by Merging Information from GCMs and Observations. WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 25, 1263-1274 <摘要>

     A new prediction approach for summer (June&ndash;August) rainfall in China was designed by considering both preceding observations and numerically predicted summer rainfall through a multivariate linear regression analysis. First, correlation analyses revealed close relationships between summer rainfall in parts of China with the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the preceding winter (December&ndash;February). The Huang-Huai Valley, two subregions of the Jiang-Huai Valley, the southern Yangtze River, south China, and southeastern Xinjiang were then chosen as targets for their regional climate characteristics. Following this, an extraseasonal (one season in advance) regression prediction model for regionally averaged summer rainfall was constructed by using these three climate factors and a 3-month leadtime forecast of summer rainfall, undertaken by an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) forced by observed SSTs, as predictors region by region. To improve the accuracy of prediction, the systematic error between the original regression model&rsquo;s results and its observational counterparts, averaged for the last 10 yr,was corrected. Using this new approach, real-time prediction experiments and cross-validation analyses were performed for the periods 2002&ndash;07 and 1982&ndash;2007, respectively. It was found that the new prediction approach was more skillful than the original or corrected GCM prediction alone in terms of sign, magnitude, and interannual variability of regionally averaged summer rainfall anomalies in all regions. The preceding observations were the major source of the prediction skill of summer rainfall in each region, and the GCM predictions added additional prediction skill in thewestern Jiang-HuaiValley and southeastern Xinjiang, in both of which the GCM prediction was used as a predictor. <p>&nbsp;</p> </div>

38) Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang, Wei Yuan and Huopo Chen, 2010: Spatial‐temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 115, D16110, doi:10.1029/2009JD0134 <摘要>

The statistical spatial‐temporal features of the intense snowfall event (ISE) in China are investigated over the period of 1962–2000. The results indicate that eastern China, northern Xinjiang, the eastern Tibetan plateau, and northeastern China are four key regions for the ISE, with more frequency and strong variability. Annual cycle analysis shows the ISE exhibits a unimodal distribution with maximum frequency at winter months for eastern China, a bimodal distribution with maximum frequency at early winter and spring months for northern Xinjiang and northeastern China, and a bimodal distribution with maximum frequency at autumn and spring months for the eastern Tibetan plateau. Linear trend analysis indicates that in the last 39 years, the ISE exhibits a decreasing trend for eastern China and an increasing trend for northern Xinjiang and the eastern Tibetan plateau. The linear trend of the ISE is weak over northeastern China. Based on the simulations of the most recent and comprehensive climate models in the 20th century run, the performance of the current climate models in simulating the Chinese ISE is investigated. The results indicate that, of the 20 models, there are four models that can reasonably reproduce the spatial‐temporal features of the Chinese ISE. Based on these four models’ simulation for the 21st century under A1B and A2 scenarios, the future variability of the Chinese ISE is projected. It is found that global warming will cause the ISE frequency over southern China to decrease, while the ISE over northern China will initially increase and then decrease.

39) ZHANG Ying,WANG Huijun,SUN Jianqi,Helge DRANGE, 2010: Changes in the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index over the Western North Pacific in the SRES A2 Scenario. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27(6), 1246-1258 <摘要>

The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index (GPI) was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Paci&macr;c (WNP). The outputs of 20th century climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models&#39; ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, the models (CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4) found to perform best when reproducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase differs between them.</div>

40) YUE Xu,WANG Huijun,LIAO Hong,FAN Ke, 2010: Direct Climatic Effect of Dust Aerosol in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3) . Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27(2), , 230-242 <摘要>

Direct climate responses to dust shortwave and longwave radiative forcing (RF) are studied using the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3). The simulated RF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is &iexcl;0.45 W m&iexcl;2 in the solar spectrum and +0.09 W m&iexcl;2 in the thermal spectrum on a global average. The magnitude of surface RF is larger than the TOA forcing, with global mean shortwave forcing of &iexcl;1.76 W m&iexcl;2 and longwave forcing of +0.31 W m&iexcl;2. As a result, dust aerosol causes the absorption of 1.1 W m&iexcl;2 in the atmosphere. The RF of dust aerosol is predicted to lead to a surface cooling of 0.5 K over the Sahara Desert and Arabian Peninsula. In the meantime, the upper troposphere is predicted to become warmer because of the absorption by dust. These changes in temperature lead to a more stable atmosphere, which results in increases in surface humidity. The upward sensible and latent heat &deg;uxes at the surface are reduced, largely balancing the surface energy loss caused by the backscattering and absorption of dust aerosol. Precipitation is predicted to decrease moderately on a global scale.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

41) ZHU Yali,WANG Huijun, 2010: The Relationship between the Aleutian Low and the Australian Summer Monsoon at Interannual Time Scales. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27(1), 177-184 <摘要>

The relationship between the boreal winter (December, January, February) Aleutian Low (AL) and the simultaneous Australian summer monsoon (ASM) is explored in this study. A significant correlation is found between the North Pacific index (NPI) and ASM index, the bulk of which is attributed to the significant correlation after late 1970s. Significant differences in precipitation and outgoing long-wave radiation between typical negative and positive NPI years appear over the ASM area. A regression analysis of the circulation pattern against the NPI during the three months is performed separately. We propose that the NPI is related with the ASM circulation possibly through the changes in the upper level westerly jet. In a typical negative NPI (strong Aleutian Low) year, the jet is greatly reinforced and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the south is thus excited, from which the easterly wind anomalies &deg;owing into the ASM region emanate. Further, strong sinking motion over the northern entrance region of the jet is enhanced, and the local Hadley circulation anomaly between the ASM region and the coast of East Asia is strengthened. In this way, anomalous upward motion over the ASM area can thus be strengthened, and the convective activity intensified. Then the monsoon rainfall over ASM area is increased. An \asymmetric&quot; connection between AL and the monsoon is found in this study.</div>

42) ANG Jun and WANG Huijun, 2010: The Relationship between Total Ozone and Local Climate at Kunming Using Dobson and TOMS Data. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 3(4), 207-212 <摘要>

This paper uses Dobson spectrometer total ozone data, Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data and radiosonde reports from Kunming, which is located in southwest China, from 1980 to 2008 to analyze the total ozone-climate relationship. The total ozone decadal long-term trend and abrupt change were studied using enhanced Dobson data whose missing data were amended by the TOMS data. Stepwise linear regression was used for the selection of the key factors that influence total ozone, including temperatures, geopotential heights, depressions of the dew point, wind velocities, and total solar radiation. The relationship between the selected factors and total ozone was analyzed using the methods of stepwise regression and partial least squares regression(PLSR). Results showed that although the PLSR method was slightly better and more reasonable to study the relationship than stepwise regression, while the two regression results were only slightly different. It was also suggested that local climate, especially local circulation and temperature, were important for the variations in total ozone, and the local climate could almost linearly explain 80% of the variance of total ozone. The relationship also indicated that the abrupt change of total ozone in the year 1994 may be related to abrupt local climate change.</div>

43) Wang Tao, WANG Huijun, and Jiang Dabang, 2010: Mid-Holocene East Asian summer climate as simulated by the PMIP2 models. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 288, 93-102 <摘要>

In the present study, datasets derived from twelve coupled ocean&ndash;atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase two were used to analyze the East Asian summer climate during the mid-Holocene (about 6000 calendar years ago). On the whole, the OAGCMs reproduced warmer and wetter summer climate conditions in East Asia during the mid-Holocene. The multimodel ensemble showed that in East Asia, the regionally-averaged summer surface air temperature (SAT) increased by 0.89 &deg;C, summer precipitation was 5.8% higher, and an obviously strengthened southerly wind corresponded to a strong summer monsoon in the mid-Holocene when compared to preindustrial levels. The data-model comparison in China reveals a good agreement between the OAGCMs&#39; results and the reconstructed changes in the summer SAT in East China during the mid-Holocene. In North China, the simulated SAT anomalies are 0.5 &deg;C lower overall than reconstruction. In contrast, the OAGCMs fail to capture the strongest warming in the southern Qinghai&ndash;Tibetan Plateau. On the other hand, the simulated precipitation agrees well with proxy data except for in the central parts of China, where the simulated summer precipitation disagrees in sign with reconstruction. In addition, there is a large spread among the simulations, particularly over and around the Qinghai&ndash;Tibetan Plateau, and inter-model discrepancies arelarger for precipitation than for SAT as a whole.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

44) Huijun Wang and Ke Fan, 2009: A New Scheme for Improving the Seasonal Prediction of Summer Precipitation Anomalies. Weather and Forecasting, 24, 548–554 <摘要>

A new scheme is developed to improve the seasonal prediction of summer precipitation in the East Asian and western Pacific region. The scheme is applied to the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) results. The new scheme is designed to consider both model predictions and observed spatial patterns of historical &lsquo;&lsquo;analog years.&rsquo;&rsquo; In this paper, the anomaly pattern correlation coefficient (ACC) between the prediction and the observation, as well as the root-meansquare error, is used to measure the prediction skill. For the prediction of summer precipitation in East Asia and the western Pacific (0&ndash;40N, 80&ndash;130E), the prediction skill for the six model ensemble hindcasts for the years of 1979&ndash;2001 was increased to 0.22 by using the new scheme from0.12 for the original scheme. Allmodels were initiated in May and were composed of nine member predictions, and all showed improvement when applying the newscheme.The skill levelsof the predictions for the sixmodels increased from0.08, 0.08, 0.01, 0.14, -0.07, and 0.07 for the original scheme to 0.11, 0.14, 0.10, 0.22, 0.04, and 0.13, respectively, for the new scheme. <p>&nbsp;</p> </div>

45) Ke Fan and Huijun Wang, 2009: A New Approach to Forecasting Typhoon Frequency over the Western North Pacific. WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 24, 74-986 <摘要>

This paper presents a new approach for forecasting the typhoon frequency of the western North Pacific (WNP). The year-to-year increase or decrease in typhoon frequency is first forecasted to yield a net typhoon frequency prediction. Five key predictors for the year-to-year increment in the number of typhoons in the WNP have been identified, and a forecast model is established using a multilinear regression method based on data taken from 1965 to 2001. Using the forecast model, a hindcast of the typhoon frequency of the WNP during 2002&ndash;07 is made. The model exhibited a reasonably close fit for the period 1965&ndash;2007, including the larger anomalies in 1997 and 1998. It also accounted for the smaller variability of the typhoon frequency of the WNP during the validation period 2002&ndash;07 with an average root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.3 (2.85) during 2002&ndash;07 (1965&ndash;2001).The cross-validation test of the prediction model shows that the new approach and the prediction model demonstrate better prediction skill when compared to the models established based on typhoon frequency rather than the typhoon frequency increment. Thus, this new approach has the potential to improve the operational forecasting skill for typhoon frequency in the WNP.</div>

46) Wang Huijun, and Jianqi Sun, 2009: Variability of Northeast China River Break-up Date. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26(4), 701-706 <摘要>

This paper investigates the variability of the break-up dates of the rivers in Northeast China from their icebound states for the period of 1957&ndash;2005 and explores some potential explanatory mechanisms. Results show that the break-up of the two major rivers (the Heilongjiang River and Songhuajiang River)was about four days earlier, and their freeze-up was about 4&ndash;7 days delayed, during 1989&ndash;2005 as compared to 1971&ndash;1987. This interdecadal variation is evidently associated with the warming trend over the past 50 years. In addition, the break-up and freeze-up dates have large interannual variability, with a standard deviation of about 10&ndash;15 days. The break-up date is primarily determined by the January&ndash;February&ndash;March mean surface air temperature over the Siberian-Northeast China region via changes in the melting rate, ice thickness, and snow cover over the ice cover. The interannual variability of the break-up date is also significantly connected with the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), with a correlation coefficient of 0.35&ndash;0.55 based on the data from four stations along the two rivers. This relationship is attributed to the fact that the NAM can modulate the East Asian winter monsoon circulation and Siberian-Northeast China surface air temperature in January&ndash;February&ndash;March.</div>

47) 王会军,王涛,姜大膀,富元海, 2009: 我国气候变化将比模式预期的小吗?. 第四纪研究, 29(6), 1011-1014 <摘要>

<div id="abstc_421" style="display: block">从当今国际上不同的气候系统模式模拟的全新世大暖期和末次盛冰期我国气候变化量级和复原资料结果的对比,以及从目前气候变化的趋势(包括温室气体、气温、海洋温度、海平面高度、冰川等),来评述我国区域气候未来变化的量级。从以上两个方面的情况看,我国区域的未来气候变化量级可能比现有模式预估的还要大。文章最后讨论了我国的气候变化脆弱区以及关键的气候变化要素问题。</div>

48) Jianqi Sun, Huijun Wang and Wei Yuan, 2009: Role of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature in the decadal change of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 114, D20110, doi:10.1029/2009JD012395 <摘要>

Recent observational studies have shown that the southern center of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) shifted eastward after the late 1970s. In this study, this phenomenon and its causes are further explored. It is found that the decadal spatial shift of the SNAO southern center is related to the decadal variability of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (TASST). In the past half century, the TASST experienced an abrupt change around the late 1970s, with a rapid warming in the recent 2 decades. Thus in the period after the late 1970s when the TASST is relatively warmer, the TASST released more energy into the atmosphere, then stimulated strong convection over the tropical Atlantic, and further excited anomalous wave-like patterns. This strengthened the circulation in the region of the Mediterranean Sea, namely the east part of the SNAO southern center, consequently leading to an eastward shift of the SNAO southern center. Meanwhile, in the period before the late 1970s when the TASST is relatively cooler, the TASST released less energy into the atmosphere, so its impact on the overlying atmosphere was significantly weakened and confined to the lower-level atmosphere of the tropical Atlantic. Thus the TASST possibly did not influence the variability of the SNAO southern center, and the SNAO pattern exhibited a traditional distribution with two centers over the North Atlantic.</div>

49) Ning Zeng, Yihui Ding, Jiahua Pan, Huijun Wang, Jay Gregg, 2008: Climate Change—the Chinese Challenge. Science, 318, 730-731 <摘要>

<div id="abstc_366" style="display: block">In 2006, China&rsquo;s carbon dioxide emission rate reached 1.6 GtC (gigatons of carbon or 1015 g carbon) per year (see chart, below) (1&ndash;3). Economic growth is projected to continue at higher than 7% per year; at this rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would quadruple in 20 years. The associated high CO2 emission rate would substantially affect the goal of avoiding dangerous climate change as set by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The conflict between economic development and keeping atmospheric greenhouse gases at a manageable level poses one of the greatest challenges of this century.</div>

50) 王会军,孙建奇,范可, 2007: 北太平洋涛动与台风和飓风频次的关系研究. 中国科学(D), 37(7), 966~973 <摘要>

研究了北太平洋涛动(NPO)和西太平洋台风及热带大西洋飓风频次的联系. 结果表明, 在1949~1998年这50 a间, NPO和西太平洋台风频次的相关系数是0.37, 而和热带大西洋飓风频次的相关系数是&minus;0.28, 都达到了95%的置信度水平. 进一步的研究揭示: 6~9月NPO的变化和西太平洋及热带大西洋区的纬向风垂直切变幅度、海平面气压以及海表面温度、区域大气辐散辐合等存在显著的关联, 而这些气候环境的变化都和台风及飓风生成与发展的热力或动力过程密切相关. 这就是NPO与台风及飓风频次相联系的原因. 还进一步研究了与NPO有关的大气遥相关以及两个区域大气环流的变化, 以便进一步理解NPO和台风及飓风活动频次的联系. 最后分析了一个海气耦合模式的积分结果, 初步印证了由观测资料所得到的结论.</div>

51) 苏明峰,王会军, 2006: 中国气候干湿变率与ENSO的关系及其稳定性. 中国科学(D), 36(10), 951-958 <摘要>

利用1951-01~2000-10 中国160 站气温和降水月平均资料, 计算了自修正PDSI 指数. PDSI 指数EOF 分析第一模态空间场分布和1951~2000 年PDSI 指数的变化趋势分布十分相似, 第一模态时间系数反映了空间场随时间的演变情况. 研究发现, EOF 分析所揭示的中国气候干湿变率和ENSO 有着很好的关系. 这种关系表明, 在典型的ENSO 暖状态, 中国大部分地区都偏干, 特别是华北地区更易偏干, 长江以南地区和西北容易偏湿, 而长江中下游地区处于变干和湿的过渡区, 变干或湿不明显. 在典型的ENSO 冷状态则情况相反. 而中国气候干湿变率年际和年代际变化都对应着强El Ni&ntilde;o 事件; 反过来当发生强El Ni&ntilde;o 事件时, 中国气候干湿变率在年际和年代际尺度上有可能发生剧烈变化. 最近20~30 a 中国气候干湿的年代际变化, 特别是华北自20 世纪70 年代末的变干和西北自80 年代中期的变湿, 与ENSO 朝更暖的状态变化及全球变暖有着紧密的联系. 1951~2000 年中国气候干湿变率和ENSO 关系的稳定性分析表明, 中国气候干湿变率和ENSO 之间在3~8 a 变化周期上存着很好的相关关系, 但这种相关关系不稳定, 存在着年代际变化: 1951~1962 和1976~1991 年两个时间段两者相关关系很高, 而在1963~1975 和1992~2000 年两时段内, 两者相关关系较差.</div>

52) Botao Zhou and Huijun Wang, 2006: Relationship between the boreal spring Hadley circulation and the summer precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D16109, doi:10.1029/2005JD0070006 <摘要>

The connection between the boreal spring Hadley circulation (HC) and variability of the following summer east Asian atmospheric circulations and precipitation in the Yangtze River valley is investigated through an analysis of the observed data in this study. It is found that there is a significantly positive correlation between HC and the summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valley. This relationship is well supported by the changes of atmospheric general circulation backgrounds and water vapor conditions related to the variation of the preceding boreal spring HC. The summer situations of strengthened western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), intensified South Asian high (SAH), southward located east Asian jet (EAJ) and enhanced water vapor corresponding to strong spring HC provide favorable conditions for increasing the precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and vice versa. The possible mechanism how the boreal spring HC affects summer atmospheric circulations is identified preliminarily in the study. Results show that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea may play an important role in linking the spring HC and summer atmospheric circulations. Spring HC may evoke SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea, which&nbsp; can persist from spring to summer and in turn give rise to anomalous east Asian summer monsoon. As a result, summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valley may be influenced.

53) 范可,王会军, 2006: 有关南半球大气环流与东亚气候的关系研究的若干新进展. 大气科学, 30(3), 402-412 <摘要>

南半球大气环流是全球大气环流的重要组成部分,也是影响气候变化和亚洲季风系统的一个重要因素。中国气象学家很早就注意到南半球大气环流对东亚夏季风降水的影响。近年来,有关南半球气候辨率的研究目前正受到世界气象学家越来越多的关注。南半球中高纬大气资料的丰富及南极涛动的确定,使得认识南半球中高纬环流的年际变动规律及其与东亚气候关系成为可能。本文主要介绍近年来有关南极涛动年际变化与沙尘天气发生频次及东亚冬春季气候的关系,古气候资料揭示的南极涛动与华北降水的关系,以及南半球大气环流与长江中下游夏季降水的关系和南极涛动辨率的可预测性等方面的研究进展。并对未来研究方向作了初步展望。</div>

54) 王会军,郎咸梅,范可,孙建奇,周广庆, 2006: 关于2006 年西太平洋台风活动频次的气候预测试验. 气候与环境研究, 11(2), 133-137 <摘要>

这是首次利用气候模式对我国2006 年夏季西太平洋地区台风活动频次的实时气候预测的报告。根据这个初步的预测试验结果分析, 西太平洋地区夏季(6~10 月) 对流层低层为异常辐散区而高层为异常辐合区, 大气顶向外长波辐射为正距平, 对流活动异常偏弱; 同时, 该地区对流层上下层纬向风的切变幅度异常偏大; 海洋温度的距平值很小。综合这些气候背景条件, 今年西太平洋的台风生成数量将可能比正常年份偏少一些。当然, 由于台风生成发展的复杂性, 这一预测还有不确定性。

55) 王会军,范可, 2006: 南半球对流层上层纬向风与东亚夏季风环流. 科学通报, 51(13), 1595-1600 <摘要>

研究了南半球对流层上层纬向风和东亚夏季风在年际变化尺度上的关系, 用150 百帕60&deg;S 和30&deg;S 之间的纬向平均的纬向风差值(ISH)可以很好地代表南半球纬向风的年际变化. 结果发现: ISH 和东亚夏季风环流在年际变化尺度上有非常显著的负相关关系. 研究揭示: 从南半球到热带区域的纬向风的径向遥相关型(主体在东半球)可能是这种关系的主要内在原因. 通过这种遥相关型使得风场和气压场发生改变从而影响东亚夏季风环流; 另外, 与ISH 相关连的欧亚大陆区的异常遥相关波列也是一个重要的机制. 而且ISH 和东亚夏季风环流的关系有同时性, 也有非同时性. 因此这种关系的存在一定意义上也具有预测价值.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

56) 范可,王会军,, 2006: 南极涛动的年际变化及其对东亚冬春季气候的影响. 中国科学(D 辑) 地球科学, 36(4), 385-391 <摘要>

研究了南极涛动的年际变化及其对冬春两季东亚气候的影响, 结果表明, 南极涛动强年不利于东亚冬春两季冷空气的活动. 通过平均经圈环流分析发现, 在南极涛动异常年有从南极到北极分布的经向遥相关, 并且该遥相关具有正压的结构. 此遥相关冬季在欧亚地区显著, 春季在太平洋地区显著. 研究还表明, 南半球高纬的平均纬圈西风, 在冬季与欧亚西风有显著的正相关关系, 因而在一定程度上证实了冬季经向遥相关的存在; 在春季, 则与太平洋北美型遥相关有显著的反相关关系. 因此, 局地经向遥相关是冬、春两季中南北半球中高纬大气环流相互作用的一个可能途径.</div>

57) Wang Huijun, 2006: Linkage Between the Northeast Mongolian Precipitation and the Northern Hemisphere Zonal Circulation. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 23(5), 659–664 <摘要>

The long-term relationship between the tree-ring-reconstructed annual precipitation in northeastern Mongolia (PRM) and the Northern Hemisphere Zonal Circulation (NHZC)&sect;defined as the normalized zonal mean sea-level pressure at 60N in May-June-July, is examined in this study. A significant correlation coefficient (0.31) was found between the NHZC indices and PRM based on the dataset for the period of 1872&ndash;1995. The mechanisms responsible for the relationship are discussed through analyses of the atmospheric general circulation variability associated with NHZC. It follows that NHZC-related atmospheric circulation variability provides an anomalous southeast flow from the ocean to Northeast Mongolia (northwest flow from Northeast Mongolia to the ocean) in the middle and low troposphere in positive (negative) phase of NHZC, resulting in more (less) water vapor transport to the target region and more (less) precipitation in Northeast Mongolia.</div>

58) 王会军, 范可, 2006: 西北太平洋台风生成频次与南极涛动的关系. 科学通报, 51(24), 2910-2914 <摘要>

研究了西北太平洋台风生成频次(WNPTN)和南极涛动(AAO)的关系, 发现6~9月AAO和西北太平洋台风生成频次(WNPTN)具有显著的反相关关系(1949~1998 年期间年际变化的相关系数为 &minus;0.48). 还分析了和AAO的变化相联系的热带西太平洋大气环流和海温的变化, 结果表明: 当AAO处于正位相时, 西北太平洋区纬向风的垂直切变幅度加大, 对流层低层为异常反气旋环流并且涡度异常为负值, 而高层为异常气旋环流并且涡度异常为正值, 海表温度降低, 这些变化均不利于台风生成和发展. 反之亦然.</div>

59) Zhang Zhongshi, Wang H. J., Guo Zhengtang, Jiang Dabang, 2006: What triggers the transition of palaeoenvironmental patterns in China, the Tibetan Plateau uplift or the Paratethys Sea retreat?. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 245, 317-331 <摘要>

Geological research has illustrated the transition of palaeoenvironmental patterns by the earliest Miocene from a planetary-wind-dominant type to a monsoon-dominant type, indicating that the East Asian monsoon became markedly intensified and played a leading role in the East Asian climate. From a modeling point of view, the pioneering research using the reduced number of scenarios had demonstrated that both the Tibetan Plateau uplift and the Paratethys Sea retreat were important for understanding the Asian monsoon evolution. However, the sensitivity of the Paratethys retreat to the East Asian climate still needs further studies based on the more detailed scenarios. Thirty numerical experiments under the six Paratethys Sea and the five Tibetan Plateau conditions illustrate the shifts from zonal climate to the monsoon climate in East Asia. The results confirm again that both the Paratethys retreat and the Tibetan plateau uplift play important roles in the formation of the monsoon-dominant environmental pattern, and show that the Paratethys retreat can strengthen the East Asian monsoon and greatly increase humidity and aridity respectively in the monsoon areas and Northwest China, which is similar to the impact of the Tibetan Plateau uplift on the East Asian climate. Furthermore, the fact that the Paratethys Sea retreats to the Turan Plate is found to be the key criterion for the palaeoenvironmental patterns&#39; transition in China. The shrinkage of Paratethys Sea leads to the reconstructions of the pressure system and the atmospheric circulations, which result in the variations of precipitation and the transition of palaeoenvironmental patterns. <p>&nbsp;</p> </div>

60) WANG Huijun, 2005: The Circum-Pacific Teleconnection Pattern in Meridional Wind in the High Troposphere. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 22(3), 463–466 <摘要>

The Circum-Pacific Teleconnection Pattern (CPTP) is revealed in the meridional wind in the high troposphere via an emprirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlation analysis on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The CPTP is found to be composed of the North Pacific&ndash;North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), the South Pacific&ndash;South American teleconnection pattern (PSA), and the teleconnection patterns over the tropical western Pacific and the tropical eastern Pacific (or, Central America, or, tropical Atlantic). There is substantial interannual variability of the CPTP and a typical CPTP can be detected in some years. It is speculated that the zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial region in the western and eastern sides of the Pacific may play a role in linking the two hemispheres. The anomalous convection activities in the Tropics are plausible triggering factors for the zonal wind anomalies that are responsible for the composition of the CPTP.</div>

61) Huijun Wang and Ke Fan, 2005: Central-north China precipitation as reconstructed from the Qing dynasty: Signal of the Antarctic Atmospheric Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L24705, doi:10.1029/2005GL024562 <摘要>

Based on the long-term Central-north China precipitation (CNCP) time series reconstructed from the Qing Dynasty Official Document, the relationship between CNCP and the Antarctic Atmospheric Oscillation (AAO) in June-July is examined. The analysis yields a (significant) negative correlation of 0.22. The signal of AAO in CNCP is further studied through analyses of the atmospheric general circulation variability related to AAO. It follows that AAO-related variability of convergence and convection over the tropical western Pacific can exert impact on the circulation condition and precipitation in north China (actually, the precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley as well) through atmospheric teleconnection known as the East Asia-Pacific (or Pacific&ndash;Japan) teleconnection wave pattern. There is also an AAO-connected wave train in the vorticity field at high troposphere over Eurasia, providing an anti-cyclonic circulation in central-north China favorable to the decline of precipitation in positive phase of AAO.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

62) 康杜娟,王会军, 2005: 中国北方沙尘暴气候形势的年代际变化. 中国科学(D), 35(11, 1096-1102 <摘要>

分析了中国北方沙尘气候的时间变化特征, 重点研究与沙尘气侯的年代际变化相应的冬、春季气候和大气环流异常特征. 文章揭示: 在沙尘活动频繁年代(1956~1970)和稀少年代(1985~1999)冬、春季的气候和大气环流有显著差别. 与前一个年代相比, 在后一个年代里冬季极涡异常加深, 50&deg;N附近的西风增强, 东亚极锋锋区位置偏北, 东亚大槽偏弱; 西伯利亚高压北部及中心强度变弱, 阿留申低压明显升压; 东亚季风强度变弱, 影响中国的冷空气势力减弱, 冬、春季大风天气变少. 同时中国北方广大地区冬季温度显著升高, 西北和内蒙古的沙源地区春季降水明显增多. 研究还发现, 在年际尺度上, 中国北方的沙尘活动频次与前冬的西风指数、北极涛动指数呈显著的负相关, 与冬、春季东亚季风指数呈显著的正相关.</div>

63) 孙建奇,王会军, 2005: 北极涛动与太平洋年代际振荡的关系. 科学通报, 50(15), 1648-1653 <摘要>

文中研究了年代际时间尺度上冬季(11~3月)北极涛动与太平洋年代际振荡之间的关系. 结果发现, 北极涛动对于太平洋年代际振荡的变化起着重要的作用. 当北极涛动超前太平洋年代际振荡7~8年的时候, 两者的相关关系最好, 相关系数为0.77. 这种年代际时间尺度上的超前性对太平洋年代际振荡的变化有着很好的预测意义. 回归分析和超前滞后相关的结果表明北极涛动与太平洋年代际振荡耦合的关键可能在于阿留申低压: 强的北极涛动导致阿留申低压加深, 进而通过北半球中纬度的海气相互作用影响到太平洋年代际振荡, 反之亦然。

64) 王会军, 2005: 来自大气内部的季节气候可预测性初探. 大气科学, 29(1), 64-70 <摘要>

这是一个十分初步的工作结果。通常认为,气候的季节&mdash;年际可预测性主要来自缓慢变化的大气外强迫的异常(如海表温度、积雪、土壤温度和湿度等)。作者从大气月平均风场异常的持续性以及与东亚季风年际异常相关的全球大气环流异常特征两个方面初步探讨东亚夏季气候的可预测性。初步结果说明,大气月平均风场在对流层上层和平流层下层的热带区域及一些关键区域可持续性可以超过一个季节,并且与东亚季风有显著相关,从而使得从大气内部变化来考虑东亚夏季风气候仍然有一定的可预测性。

65) 姜大膀,王会军, 2005: 20世纪后期东亚夏季风年代际减弱的自然属性. 科学通报, 50(20), 2256-2262 <摘要>

文中使用1948~2002年美国国家环境预测中心/大气研究中心的再分析资料, 通过计算呈现了始于20世纪60年代中期的东亚夏季风年代际尺度减弱事实、以及东亚夏季风系统在20世纪60年代中期和70年代中后期发生的两次年代际突变事件. 而后, 基于政府间气候变化专门委员会资料分发中心提供的SRES A2温室气体和气溶胶排放情景下六套全球海气耦合气候模式的数值模拟结果, 从定性的角度上揭示了此次东亚夏季风年代际衰减过程与20世纪后期人类活动引发的全球变暖之间没有明显的联系, 应该为一次自然的气候变化过程. 模式结果还显示, 如果21世纪温室效应在20世纪后期的基础上进一步加剧, 东亚夏季风系统可能会受此影响而趋于增强.

66) Jiang Dabang, Wang Huijun, Ding Zhongli, Lang Xianmei,Drange Helge, 2005: Modeling the middle Pliocene climate with a global atmospheric general circulation model. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 110, D14107 <摘要>

A new climate simulation for the middle Pliocene (ca. 3 Ma BP) is performed by a global grid-point atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP AGCM) with boundary conditions provided by the U. S. Geological Survey&rsquo;s Pliocene Research, Interpretations, and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) group. It follows that warmer and slightly wetter conditions dominated at the middle&nbsp; Pliocene with a globally annual mean surface temperature increase of 2.60C, and an&nbsp; increase in precipitation of 4.0% relative to today. At the middle Pliocene, globally annual terrestrial warming was 1.86C, with stronger warming toward high latitudes. Annual precipitation enhanced notably at high latitudes, with the augment reaching 33.5% (32.5%) of the present value at 60&ndash;90N (60&ndash;90S). On the contrary, drier conditions were registered over most parts at 0&ndash;30N, especially in much of East Asia and the northern tropical Pacific. In addition, both boreal summer and winter monsoon significantly&nbsp; decreased in East Asia at the middle Pliocene. It is indicated that the IAPAGCM simulation&nbsp; is generally consistent with the results from other atmospheric models and agrees well with available paleoclimatic reconstructions in East Asia. Additionally, it is further revealed that the PRISM warmer sea surface temperature and reduced sea ice extent are main factors determining the middle Pliocene climate. The simulated climatic responses arising from the PRISM reconstructed vegetation and continental ice sheet cannot be neglected on a regional scale at mid to high latitudes (like over Greenland and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and around the circum-Antarctic) but have little influence on global climate.</div>

67) Fan Ke, and Wang Hui-Jun, 2004: Antarctic oscillation and the dust weather frequency in North China. Geophys. Res. Lett, 31, L10201, doi:10.1029/2004GL019465 <摘要>

The linkage between the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) to the dust weather frequency (DWF) in North China is addressed. Here DWF denotes the number of days of dust weather events including dust haze, blowing dust and dust storm in one year. It is found that the interannual variation of AAO plays a significant role in the dust-related atmospheric circulation during boreal spring. AAO and DWF correlate well, with positive AAO tending to decrease DWF in North China. Two possible mechanisms for the AAO-DWF coupling are identified, one is related to a meridional teleconnection pattern; the other is related to a regional circulation pattern over the Pacific Ocean.

68) Feng Xue, Huijun Wang and Jinhai He, 2004: Interannual variability of Mascarene high and Australian high and their influences on East Asian summer monsoon. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 82(4),, 1173-1186 <摘要>

Based on the reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR and other observational data, interannual variability of the Mascarene high (MH) and Australian high (AH) during boreal summer from 1970 to 1999 is examined. It is shown that interannual variability of MH is dominated by the Antarctic oscillation (AAO), and MH tends to be intensified with the development of the circumpolar lows in high southern latitudes. On the other hand, AH is correlated with AAO as well as El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and tends to be intensified when El Nino occurs.<br /> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Since AH, especially MH, is positively correlated with AAO, composite analysis on the difference between the positive and negative MH is performed to reveal the physical mechanism responsible for the East Asian summer monsoon anomalies associated with AAO. The result shows that, with the intensification of MH, the Somali jet, and Indian monsoon westerlies, tend to be strengthened. Accordingly, AH and the associated cross-equatorial flow, become stronger whereas the trade wind over the tropical western and middle Pacific become weaker. In association with the above changes, convective activities near the Philippine Sea are largely suppressed, as a consequence, exciting a negative convection anomaly, and a Rossby wave train from East Asia via the North Pacific to the western coast of North America (a negative Pacific-Japan pattern). Corresponding to the negative Pacific-Japan pattern, an anomalous rainfall pattern appears in East Asia.
Correlation analysis between AAO and sea level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential height further indicates that AAO is a strong signal influencing the climate anomaly in both hemispheres, including East Asia. Due to the seasonal persistence, AAO and the related MH and AH in boreal spring, may provide some useful information for the East Asian summer monsoon prediction. With the intensification of MH during boreal spring through summer, the Meiyu/Baiu rainfall from the Yangtze River valley to the Japan Islands tends to increase, while less rainfall is found outside of this region. In contrast with MH, the effect of AH on summer rainfall is confined to southern China.

69) 王会军,徐永福,周天军,陈洪滨,王普才,陆日宇,张美根, 2004: 大气科学:一个充满活力的前沿科学. 地球科学进展, 19(4), 525-532 <摘要>

着眼于未来发展的若干战略问题,阐述了对当前大气科学发展的状况与趋势的意见,提出了我国未来发展大气科学的思路和重点任务建议,还分析了我国大气科学研究中存在的若干问题并提出一些政策建议。

70) Jiang Dabang, Wang Huijun, Helge Drange, and Lang Xianmei, 2003: Last glacial maximum over China: Sensitivities of climate to paleovegetation and Tibetan ice-sheet. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(D3), 4102, doi:10.1029/2002JD002167 <摘要>

With the boundary conditions appropriate for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), including ice sheets, sea surface temperatures, sea-ice distribution, atmospheric CO2 concentration, the Earth&rsquo;s orbital parameters, topography, and coastline, the atmospheric general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP-AGCM) computes colder and drier conditions than for present day. Global annual-average surface temperature decreased by 5.3&deg;C, and terrestrial precipitation was down by 29%. It is shown that IAP-AGCM LGM simulation compares favorably to results from other AGCMs, and/but generally shows a weak terrestrial cooling when compared to paleoclimatic reconstructions in tropics. The 21 ka (ka: thousands of years ago) vegetation reconstruction is introduced into the model to study the regional climate response to the changes in vegetation and associated soil characteristics over China. The additional cooling due to these two changes reduces, to a certain degree, the model-data discrepancies. In addition, under the precondition of continental ice existing over part of the Tibetan Plateau at the LGM, the authors examine the regional climate response to the continental ice. It follows that the glacial-age environment over the Tibetan Plateau is a very important factor for 21 ka climate simulation in East Asia.

71) 王会军, 薛峰, 2003: 索马里急流的年际变化及其对半球间水汽输送和东亚夏季降水的影响. 地球物理学报, 46(1), 18-25 <摘要>

利用美国国家环境预报中心和美国国家大气科学研究中心(NCEP/ NCAR) 再分析月平均气候资料以及Xie 和Arkin 分析的月平均降水资料(1968-1998 年) ,针对索马里低空急流(SMJ) 的年际变化及其对东亚夏季降水的影响问题展开了分析研究。结果揭示,SMJ作为最主要的越赤道气流,对两个半球间水汽输送起最关键的作用,它把水汽从冬半球输送到夏半球。夏季SMJ的年际变化有全球范围内的环流异常与之相联系,特别是东亚沿岸的波列状异常分布、南亚高压以及澳大利亚以南的偶极型异常分布;它也同春季的北印度洋等海区的海温异常有密切关系。研究还表明,春季SMJ的年际变化对东亚夏季降水和大气环流有显著影响,由于SMJ影响的超前性,因此它在东亚夏季气候预测上有重要意义

72) 王会军, 2003: 2002年亚洲北部的超强暖冬事件及其超常大气环流. 科学通报, 48(7), 734-736 <摘要>

揭示并分析了2001年12月至2002年2月亚洲北部的超强暖冬事件(850 hPa,气温距平超过3℃), 以及与之相伴的全球大气环流异常特征。发现该超强暖冬是20世纪70年代末之后的年代际变化和年际变化共同作用的结果, 而且年际变化起主要作用。与此次亚洲北部强暖冬事件相伴的大气环流异常有着全球特征, 特别是在东半球异常显著; 同时, 南半球中、高纬区的大气环流异常亦十分明显。

73) 王会军,郎咸梅,周广庆,康杜鹃, 2003: 我国今冬和明春气候异常与沙尘气候形势的模式预测初步报告. 大气科学, 27(1), 136-140 <摘要>

首次利用气候模式作了跨年度的针对冬季和春季气候异常形势的预测试验。预测结果显示,今冬的气候特点为,我北方降水正常,南方略偏多,气温在我国全境基本为正常,因此,不会出现暖冬现象,而欧亚大陆北部则为明显的暖冬。 预测结果还表明,明春我国西北、华北、东北降水正常,其他地区略多,全国气温均较正常,因此,明春的沙尘暴形势如常,不会出现超出常年的春季沙尘暴形势。但由于近些年的气候变化趋势使然,明春的沙尘暴仍可能在局部时空段内相当严重。

74) 郎咸梅,王会军 ,姜大膀, 2003: 中国冬季气候可预测性的跨季度集合数值预测研究. 科学通报, 48(15), 1700-1704 <摘要>

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所全球格点九层大气模式(IAP9L-AGCM),从1969-1998每年秋季出发对冬季气候可预测性进行了系统性跨季度集合回报试验研究,探讨了中国冬季季节平均气候异常的可预测性问题。结果发现,模式对冬季可预测性能力在低纬大于高纬,且在海洋上通常大于陆地,后者以气温尤为明显;对流层位势高度场的可预测区域随高度增加纬向分布变化不大,但带状分布减弱,日界线附近可预测程度明显降低。分析的大气要素场中,表面气温和位势高度场的可预测性最大,降水的相对最小。尤其在拉尼娜事件中,中国乃至东亚地区冬季气候的可预测程度明显受ENSO信号的影响。通过比较回归与实测表面气温的年际变化,发现模式对我国东北及南方地区的冬季气温变化趋势有一定的预测能力。

75) 王会军, 2003: 2003与2002:大幅度冬季温度异常反转事件及其异常大气环流. 科学通报, 48(S2), 1-4 <摘要>

揭示了2003年与2002年冬季发生于北半球中高纬区以及澳大利亚南部等地大幅度温度异常反转事件(LTAR), 在该次事件中欧亚大陆北部和北美大陆同时由2002年初的冬季异常暖事件突转为2003年的异常冷, 而北太平洋和澳大利亚南部则由异常冷突转为异常暖, 研究了该次事件的异常大气环流背景。发现:北太平洋区的异常气旋式环流系统和欧洲北部的异常反气旋式环流系统是关键角色, 这两个环流系统都有遥相关波列与之相联系。这样一个气旋式和一个反气旋式异常流型两个系统的耦合就是造成这次大幅度温度异常反转事件的主要原因。与北太平洋的异常环流系统相联系的波列很重要, 可以称为:北太平洋-西太平洋-澳大利亚异常波列(NPWPA), 而且, 澳大利亚以南的温度由负到正的异常转变很可能与这个波列以及南半球高纬区的纵向异常波列有关。

76) Wang Hui-Jun, Xue Feng, and Zhou Guang-Qing, 2002: The spring monsoon in South China and its relationship to large-scale circulation features. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 19(4), 651-664 <摘要>

In this paper, the authors define the spring monsoon in South China, and study the climatology and the interannual variation through analysis of the precipitation and the related atmospheric circulation, as revealed by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results indicate that the spring monsoon season in South China occurs climatologically in April and May, which is supported by both seasonal and interannual variation of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation. The related atmospheric circulation is different from that during the East Asian summer or winter monsoon season. The interannual variation of the spring monsoon rainfall in South China relates primarily to the anomalous circulation over the North Pacific, which is linked with the westerly jet over North Asia and with the polar vortex. It is also connected with sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific. Changes in the Asian tropical atmospheric circulation have little influence on the spring monsoon in South China according to this research.

77) Wang Hui-Jun, 2002: The instability of the East Asian summer monsoon ENSO relations. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences , 19(1), 1-11 <摘要>

The instability in the relation between the East Asian summer monsoon and the ENSO cycle in the long term variation is found through this research. By instability, we mean that high inter relation exists in some periods but low inter relation may appear in some other periods. It is reveals that the interannual variation of the summer atmospheric circulation during the &lsquo;high correlation&rsquo; periods (HCP) is significantly different from that during the &lsquo;low correlation&rsquo; periods (LCP). Larger interannual variability is found during HCP for trade wind over the tropical eastern Pacific of the Southern Hemisphere, the low&mdash;level air temperature over the tropical Pacific, the subtropical high pressure systems in the two hemispheres, and so on. The correlation between summer rainfall over China and ENSO is as well different between HCP and LCP.

78) Wang Hui-Jun, 2001: The Weakening of the Asian Monsoon Circulation after the End of 1970s. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 18(3), 376-386 <摘要>

The transition of the global atmospheric circulation in the end of 1970&rsquo;s can clearly be detected in the atmospheric temperature, wind velocity, and so on. Wavelet analysis reveals that the temporal scale of this change is large than 20 years. Studies in this work indicate that the trend of the transition over the mid-latitude Asia is opposite to that of global average for some variables at the middle troposphere. Another finding of this research is that the African-Asian monsoon circulation is weaker and the trade wind over the tropical eastern Pacific is weaker as well after this transition. Such a signal may be found in the summer precipitation over China as well.

79) WANG Huijun, CHEN Xingyue, XUE Feng and ZENG Qingcun, 2001: The Intraseasonal Oscillation And Its Interannual Variability - A Simulation Study. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 15(1), 49-58 <摘要>

The atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) and its interannual variability are simulated by the atmospheric circulation mode, which was developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. Two numerical experiments were performed, corresponding to the AMIP-I and AMIP-II simulations, respectively. The model reasonable reproduces the majao aspects of the ontraseasonal oscillation, including the propagating property and the seasonal differences in the tropics, the wavenumber structure of ISO in the globe,and the globle coincidence in the interannual variation of ISO. Comparison of the results between the two experiments suggests that improvement of the boundary forcing or condifering the air-sea interaction may help to improve the simulation on the ISO and its interannual variability.

80) Wang H.J, 2000: The interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon and its relationship with SST in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land climate model. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 17(1), 31-47 <摘要>

Based on a 200 year simulation and reanalysis data (1980 1996), the general characteristics of East Asian monsoon (EAM) were analyzed in the first part of the paper. It is clear from this re-search that the South Asian monsoon (SAM) defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is geographically and dynamically different from the East Asian monsoon (EAM). The region of the monsoon defined by Webster and Yang (1992) is located in the tropical region of Asia (40 110&deg;E, 10 20&deg;N), including the Indian monsoon and the Southeast Asian monsoon, while the EAM de-fined in this paper is located in the subtropical region of East Asia (110 125&deg;E, 20 40&deg;N). The components and the seasonal variations of the SAM and EAM are different and they characterize the tropical and subtropical Asian monsoon systems respectively. A suitable index (EAMI) for East Asian monsoon was then defined to describe the strength of EAM in this paper. In the second part of the paper, the interannual variability of EAM and its relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) in the 200 year simulation were studied by using the composite method, wavelet transformation, and the moving correlation coefficient method. The summer EAMI is negatively correlated with ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) cycle represented by the NINO3 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the preceding April and January, while the winter EAM is closely correlated with the succeeding spring SST over the Pacific in the coupled model. The general differences of EAM between El Nino and La Nina cases were studied in the model through composite analysis. It was also revealed that the dominating time scales of EAM variability may change in the long-term variation and the strength may also change. The anoma-lous winter EAM may have some correlation with the succeeding summer EAM, but this relation-ship may disappear sometimes in the long-term climate variation. Such time-dependence was found in the relationship between EAM and SST in the long-term climate simulation as well.

81) Wang H.J, G.Q. Zhou, and Y. Zhao, 2000: An effective method for correcting the seasonal-interannual prediction of summer climate anomaly. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 17, 234-240 <摘要>

An effective method was proposed for correcting the seasonal&mdash;interannual prediction of the summer climate anomaly. The predictive skill can be substantially improved by applying the method to the seasonal&mdash;interannual prediction carried out by a coupled ocean&mdash;atmosphere model. Thus the method has the potential to improve the operational summer climate predictions.

82) 王会军, 2000: 关于我国几个大水年大气环流特征的几点思考. 应用气象学报, 11(增刊), 79-86 <摘要>

通过对近50年来发生于我国的3次大水年(1954、1991、1998年)的大气环流及全球海温异常的分析,初步表明:海洋温度异常并非是我国大水发生的必要因素,甚至有时它并不重要;而欧亚中高纬区大气环流春季异常对东亚区夏季大气环流和降水异常起着非常重要的作用。因而,加强对欧亚大气环流特别是中高纬区大气环流的研究是一项极为重要的科学任务。

83) Wang Hui-Jun, 2000: The seasonal climate and low frequency oscillation in the simulated mid-Holocene Megathermal climate. Adv. Atmos. Sci, 17(3), 445-457 <摘要>

The mid&mdash;Holocene climate about 6000 years ago was simulated by using the atmospheric general circulation model. The orbital parameters for 6 ka BP (before present) were prescribed and other forcing factors were set in the modern conditions. Results show that the large&mdash;scale climate change in the African&mdash;Asian monsoon areas during the summer&mdash;time is strongly compared to the present climate, while the changes in other seasons and regions are generally weak. The results also revealed the change of the low frequency oscillation in the atmosphere.

84) Wang Hui-Jun, Taroh Matsuno, and Yoshio Kurihara, 2000: Ensemble Hindcast Experiments for the Flood Period over China in 1998 by Use of the CCSR/NIES Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 78(4), 357-365 <摘要>

Sets of numerical hindcast experiments were carried out to study the excessive rain that happened over China in 1998 by using an atmospheric general circulation model. The monthly sea surface temperatures for 1998 were prescribed as the model boundary conditions. The initial atmospheric conditions for each of the 30 member simulations were obtained from the daily reanalysis data for 00 UTC from April 1 to April 30, 1998. The initial conditions for snow mass, soil temperature, and soil wetness were prescribed as those of the model climatology.<br /> The ensemble averages of the 30 member hindcast experiments captured the positive rainfall anomaly occurred over China in the summer of 1998, with 5 degree of northward shift. The observed patterns of summer geopotential anomalies were qualitatively reproduced as well. It was revealed that initial atmospheric anomalies in April have apparent impacts on the simulated flow patterns over Eurasia and the North Pacific, and rainfall anomalies over China during the summer of 1998. However, the overall results suggest that tropical sea surface temperature anomaly played a key role in heavy rainfall over China in 1998.

85) Wang Hui-Jun, Ren-He Zhang, Cole Julie, and Francisco Chavez, 1999: El Nino and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENSO): The largest signal in interannual climate variation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci, 96, 11071-11072 <摘要>

El Nin&tilde;o and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest signal in the interannual variation of ocean-atmosphere system. It is mainly a tropical event but its impact is global. ENSO has been drawing great scientific attention in many international research programs. There has been an observational system for the tropical ocean, and scientists have known the climatologies of the upper ocean, developed some theories about the ENSO cycle, and established coupled ocean-atmosphere models to give encouraging predictions of ENSO for a 1-year lead. However, questions remain about the physical mechanisms for the ENSO cycle and its irregularity, ENSO-monsoon interactions, long-term variation of ENSO, and increasing the predictive skill of ENSO and its related climate variations.

86) Wang Hui-Jun, 1999: Role of vegetation and soil in the Holocene megathermal climate over China. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 104(8), 9361-9367 <摘要>

There was significant difference between vegetation cover in mid-Holocene and that at present over China based on various evidences as concludes by Shi et al [1992]. These changes were introduced to the climate model to study the role of the changing vegetation and associated soil to the simulated climate of mid-Holocene at 6000 years before present (BP) with bigger seasonal cycle of insolation than present (caused by the change of orbital parameters). Results show that the changes in vegetation and soil could further strengthen the monsoon rainfall over China. We found that replacing the today&rsquo;s seasonal cycle of insolation by that of mid-Holocene increases the summer (June-August) precipitation by 20% in eastern China (100-120E,18-42N); while considering both the effect of changing orbital forcing and the vegetation and soil, the total summer precipitation increase in 29% in the same region. Compared with the reconstructed precipitation over China, the results of that including changing vegetation and soil is quantitatively better.

87) 王会军, 1997: 试论短期气候预测的不确定性. 气候与环境研究, 2(4), 333-338 <摘要>

基于系统的模式预测试验和理论分析,研究了气候之短期变化预测中的不确定性问题,着重探讨大气系统内部的不确定性因素。首先,给出模式预测效能(可预测性)的概念模式;然后,详细研究预测结果的不确定性及其动力学机制;最后,对短期气候预测的出路提出了一点想法

88) Wang Huijun, Xue Feng and Bi Xunqiang, 1997: The interannual variability and predictability of a global climate model. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 14(4), 554-562 <摘要>

The interannual variabilities of the climatological simulation (V1) and the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) simulation (V2) by the IAP 9-Level Atmospheric General Circulation Model are studied and discussed in this paper. Based on the analysis of ratio of variability (R) of above two simulations the predictability of the model on the interannual climate variation are studied as well. Results show that V2 is bigger than V1 generally and V2 is more comparable to the real variability of the atmosphere, the major difference of V1 and V2 is in the tropics, for temperature and geopotential height the predictability is higher in the tropics while in the extra-tropics there is almost no predictability and the predictability is bigger in higher level than in lower level. The predictability for precipitation is generally low in the globe, and generally the predictability is high in the tropical eastern Pacific for the lower level. This study suggests that the possible way of increasing the model predictability is the improvement of land surface process modelling and the inclusion of the interannual variations of the land surface conditions (snow cover, albedo, soil moisture, etc.) as the forcing factor for climate modelling and prediction.

89) Wang H. J., Jian-Qi Sun, Huo-Po Chen, Ya-Li Zhu, Ying Zhang, Da-Bang Jiang, Xian-Mei Lang, Ke Fan, En-Tao Yu, and Song Yang, 2012: Extreme Climate in China: Facts, Simulation and Projection. Meteorologische Zeitschrift,, DOI 10.1127/0941-2948/2012/0330, <摘要>

    In this paper, studies on extreme climate in China including extreme temperature and precipitation, dust weather activity, tropical cyclone activity, intense snowfall and cold surge activity, floods, and droughts are reviewed based on the peer-reviewed publications in recent decades. The review is focused first on he climatological features, variability, and trends in the past half century and then on simulations and projections based on global and regional climate models. As the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increased throughout China, heat wave intensity and frequency overall increased in the past half century, with a large rate after the 1980s. The daily or yearly minimum SAT increased more significantly than the mean or maximum SAT. The long-term change in precipitation is predominantly characterized by the so-called southern flood and northern drought pattern in eastern China and by the overall increase over Northwest China. The interdecadal variation of monsoon, represented by the monsoon weakening in the end of 1970s, is largely responsible for this change in mean precipitation. Precipitation-related extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall and intense snowfall) have become more frequent and intense generally over China in the recent years, with large spatial features. Dust weather activity, however, has become less frequent over northern China in the recent years, as result of weakened cold surge activity, reinforced precipitation, and improved vegetation condition. State-of-the-art climate models are capable of reproducing some features of the mean climate and extreme climate events. However, discrepancies among models in simulating and projecting the mean and extreme climate are also demonstrated by many recent studies. Regional models with higher resolutions often perform better than global models. To predict and project climate variations and extremes, many new approaches and schemes based on dynamical models, statistical methods, or their combinations have been developed, resulting in improved skills. With the improvements of climate model capability and resolution as well as our understanding of regional climate variability and extremes, these new approaches and techniques are expected to further improve the prediction and projection on regional climate variability and extremes over China in the future.</div>
姓名 职称 研究方向
孙建奇 研究员 中高纬气候动力学、气候预测、极端气候
范可 研究员 气候动力学和气候预测
姜大膀 研究员 古气候模拟、气候动力学、气候预估
祝亚丽 项目研究员 年代际气候变化特征及机理,高低纬气候系统的联系,气候变化
王涛 副研究员 古气候模拟,太平洋年代际振荡,东亚季风,年代际气候变化
张颖 副研究员 气候变化与预测
汪君 高级工程师 气候模式、气象水文地质灾害、卫星遥感
郭东林 副研究员 寒区冻土模拟与气候变化
高雅 副研究员 气候变化,短期气候预测
马洁华 助理研究员 气候数值模拟、短期气候预测
贺圣平 助理研究员 东亚冬季风变异理论、短期气候预测
郝鑫 博士研究生 东亚冬季风与海温,气候变化
韩婷婷 博士研究生 气候变化
周梦子 气候变化对农业的影响
孙博 博士研究生 气候变化及其变率,大气水循环
陈冬 博士研究生 短期气候预测,全球年代际变率
李惠心 硕士研究生
刘洋
李华
宗培书 硕士 短期气候预测

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