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姓 名:祝亚丽
职 务
职 称:项目研究员
研究方向:年代际气候变化特征及机理,高低纬气候系统的联系,气候变化
进所时间:0000-00-00
教育
2004.9-2008.12 中国科学院大气物理研究所,获理学博士学位
2000.9-2004.6 兰州大学大气科学系,获理学学士学位

研究经历
2016.2- 中国科学院大气物理研究所,项目研究员
2012.4-2016.1 中国科学院大气物理研究所,副研究员
2009.6-2012.4 中国科学院大气物理研究所,助理研究员
2009.3-2009.5 香港城市大学,访问学者

任职经历

研究项目
土壤温湿在联系秋季北极海冰和夏季欧亚气候中的作用(国际合作与交流项目,项目负责人)2016-2017
90年代末和70年代末中国东部夏季降水的两次年代际变化之比较和机制研究(青年基金,项目负责人)2013-2015
中国百年气候变化的大气环流型态(碳专项子课题)2011-2015
我国旱涝、酷暑和持续性暴雪冰冻等极端气候的预测系统研制及预测效能评估(973子课题)2009-2013

重要著作

代表著作:

1) Yang Liu, Shengping He, Fei Li, Huijun Wang, and Yali Zhu, 2017: Interdecadal change between the Arctic Oscillation and East Asian climate during 1900-2015 winters. Int. J. Climatol., , <摘要>

2) Zhu, Y. L., T. Wang, and H. J. Wang, 2016: Relative contribution of the anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to the interdecadal shift of climate during the late 1970s and 1990s. Science Bulletin, 61(5), 416-424 <摘要> PDF

Global warming accelerated after the late 1970s and slowed down after the late 1990s, accompanying the significant interdecadal changes in the regional climate. We hypothesized that the interdecadal changes linearly consisted of two independent components, anthropogenic forcing and natural decadal variability, which can be represented simply by the radiative forcing effect of carbon dioxide eRFCO2 T and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), respectively. The combined effect of the RFCO2 and PDO could explain the majority of the surface temperature changes during the late 1970s and 1990s, but the magnitudes of the relative contribution of the RFCO2 and the PDO are inconsistent in different regions. For both the surface temperature and geopotential height, the RFCO2 could induce significantly positive anomalies over almost the entire globe for these two shifts, exhibiting a larger magnitude in the mid–high latitudes and in the late 1990s shift. The PDO could induce opposite anomalies for the two interdecadal shifts due to its phase transitions (negative–positive–negative). Furthermore, for the shift in the late 1970s, both the RFCO2 (53.7 %–66.7 %) and the PDO (33.3 %–46.3 %) were important in regulating the tropical geopotential height, whereas the RFCO2 dominated the changes in the mid-latitudes. For the western Pacific subtropical high, the RFCO2 (PDO) could explain 52.3 %–62.1 % (37.9 %–47.7 %) of the change. The negative effect of the PDO counteracted most of the RFCO2 effects for the late 1990s shift.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506101248517.pdf


3) Zhu, Y. L., T. Wang, and J. H. Ma, 2016: Influence of internal decadal variability on the summer rainfall in eastern China as simulated by CCSM4. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 33(6), 706-714 <摘要> PDF

The combined impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the summer rainfall in eastern China was investigated using CCSM4. The strongest signals occur with the combination of a positive PDO and a negative AMO (+PDO−AMO), as well as a negative PDO and a positive AMO (−PDO+AMO). For the +PDO−AMO set, significant positive rainfall anomalies occur over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YR), when the East Asian summer monsoon becomes weaker, while the East Asian westerly jet stream becomes stronger, and ascending motion over the YR becomes enhanced due to the jet-related secondary circulation. Contrary anomalies occur over East Asia for the −PDO+AMO set. The influence of these two combinations of PDO and AMO on the summer rainfall in eastern China can also be observed in the two interdecadal rainfall changes in eastern China in the late 1970s and late 1990s.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506095958645.pdf



4) Zhu, Y. L., and T. Wang, 2016: The relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO as simulated by CCSM4. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 9(2), <摘要> PDF

The correlation between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and ENSO reflects the strength of the interaction between climate systems in the low and high latitudes. Based on the long-term (501 years) control simulation of CCSM4, the authors investigated the linkage between the AO and ENSO in boreal winter. Based on the correlation coefficients between them, the authors divided the entire period into two groups: one that included the years with statistically significant correlations (G1), and the other the years with insignificant correlations (G2). In G1, the AO-related atmospheric circulation pattern resembles the ENSO-related one. The Aleutian Low (AL) acts as a bridge linking these two modes. In G2, however, the AO and ENSO signals are confined to the mid-high and mid-low latitudes, respectively. There is no significant linkage between the AO and ENSO in boreal winter, showing a low correlation coefficient. Further analysis suggests that changes in the climatological features, including the strengthened AO, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase, and the weakened AL, may be responsible for the enhanced relationships.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100051252.pdf


5) Miao, J. P., T. Wang, Y.L. Zhu, J. Z. Min, H.J. Wang, D. Guo, 2016: Response of the East Asian winter monsoon to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Journal of Climate, , DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0600.1 <摘要>

6) Wang, H. J., K. Fan, J. Q. Sun, S. L. Li, Z. H. Lin, G. Q. Zhou, L. J. Chen, X. M. Lang, F. Li, Y. L. Zhu, H. Chen, and F. Zheng, 2015: A review of seasonal climate prediction research in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 32(2), 149-168 <摘要> PDF

The ultimate goal of climate research is to produce climate predictions on various time scales. In China, efforts to predict the climate started in the 1930s. Experimental operational climate forecasts have been performed since the late 1950s, based on historical analog circulation patterns. However, due to the inherent complexity of climate variability, the forecasts produced at that time were fairly inaccurate. Only from the late 1980s has seasonal climate prediction experienced substantial progress, when the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project of the World Climate Research program (WCRP) was launched. This paper, following a brief description of the history of seasonal climate prediction research, provides an overview of these studies in China. Processes and factors associated with the climate variability and predictability are discussed based on the literature published by Chinese scientists. These studies in China mirror aspects of the climate research effort made in other parts of the world over the past several decades, and are particularly associated with monsoon research in East Asia. As the climate warms, climate extremes, their frequency, and intensity are projected to change, with a large possibility that they will increase. Thus, seasonal climate prediction is even more important for China in order to effectively mitigate disasters produced by climate extremes, such as frequent floods, droughts, and the heavy frozen rain events of South China.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100721678.pdf


7) Zhu, Y. L., H. J. Wang, J. H. Ma, T. Wang, and J. Q. Sun, 2015: Contribution of the phase transition of Pacific decadal oscillation to the late 1990s’ shift in East China summer rainfall. Journal of Geophysical Research, 120(17), 8817-8827 <摘要> PDF

Based on our previous study, the interdecadal changes in summer rainfall over East China in the late 1990s are further explored here. The increased local rising motion is implicated as the dominant factor of increased rainfall in the lower Huang-Huai River valley (LHR). Both the observation and numerical experiments using Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 suggest that the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) mode can result in rising anomalies and thus more rainfall in the LHR. The East Asian westerly jet stream (EAWJS) is suggested as a bridge to link the Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies and East Asian summer rainfall. Model results reveal that the negative PDO mode can lead to significant easterly anomalies over East Asia. As a result, the EAWJS is weakened and shifts poleward, which coincides with observed changes in EAWJS after the late 1990s. In addition, weakened and poleward shifted EAWJS can result in an anomalous ascending motion to its south (in the LHR) by modulating the jet-related secondary meridional-vertical circulation. Consequently, rainfall increased in the LHR after the late 1990s. Besides, the positive Atlantic Meridional Oscillation can only induce insignificant changes over East Asia and partly counteract the negative PDO effect there.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506095744453.pdf


8) 潘攀,祝亚丽,王纪军, 2014: 近50年黄河流域气温变化特征及背景分析. 气候与环境研究, 19(4), 477-485 <摘要> PDF

利用1961~2010年黄河流域142个气象观测站的资料,详细分析了近50年黄河流域气温的时空分布和变化特征。黄河流域四季平均气温均呈现东部高、西部低、南部高、北部低的空间型态。对流域气温进行经验正交分解,第一模态呈现全流域一致的增温形势,上游增温幅度最大[0.40 °C (10 a)−1];第二模态表现为东西部反相变化;第三模态为南北部反相变化。四季气温随时间变化均呈现上升趋势,升温幅度冬季最大[0.52°C (10 a)1],其次是春季[0.30 °C (10 a)−1]、秋季[0.26 °C (10 a)−1]、夏季[0.14 °C (10 a)−1]。进一步分析表明,近50年来,黄河流域的气温增暖除了全球变暖的影响,可能还来自1980年代中期和1990年代后期两次年代际增暖的贡献,这与东亚季风的两次年代际变化时间节点是一致的。

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100657995.pdf


9) Zhu, Y. L., 2013: Interdecadal variations of the winter temperature in East China during past hundred years and the related atmospheric circulation. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 6, 290‒294 <摘要> PDF

The winter temperature changes in East China during past hundred years are investigated using the 20th century-version 2 (20th-v2) reanalysis. Four typical warm (P1--1911-1930; P4--1991-2010) and cold (P2--1938-1957; P3--1961-1980) periods are identified for the East China winter temperature index Comparison with the 160-station observational data, NCAR sea level pressure, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis show that the 20th-v2 reanalysis can depict the major features of the warming from P3 to P4, which is part of the global warming phenomenon. The cooling from P1 to P2 is a regional phenomenon under global cooling. However, both changes are consistent with the phase change of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), while the second change is also accompanied by the phase change of Antarctic Oscillation from negative to positive. Original sources of the interdecadal shifts of the Arctic Oscillation and winter temperature in East China still needs further research.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100615586.pdf


10) Wang, H. J., J. Q. Sun, H. P. Chen, Y. L. Zhu, Y. Zhang, D. B. Jiang, X. M. Lang, K. Fan, E. T. Yu, and S. Yang, 2012: Extreme Climate in China: Fact, Simulation and Projection. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 21(3), 279-304 <摘要> PDF

In this paper, studies on extreme climate in China including extreme temperature and precipitation, dust weather activity, tropical cyclone activity, intense snowfall and cold surge activity, floods, and droughts are reviewed based on the peer-reviewed publications in recent decades. The review is focused first on the climatological features, variability, and trends in the past half century and then on simulations and projections based on global and regional climate models. As the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increased throughout China, heat wave intensity and frequency overall increased in the past half century, with a large rate after the 1980s. The daily or yearly minimum SAT increased more significantly than the mean or maximum SAT. The long-term change in precipitation is predominantly characterized by the so-called southern flood and northern drought pattern in eastern China and by the overall increase over Northwest China. The interdecadal variation of monsoon, represented by the monsoon weakening in the end of 1970s, is largely responsible for this change in mean precipitation. Precipitation-related extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall and intense snowfall) have become more frequent and intense generally over China in the recent years, with large spatial features. Dust weather activity, however, has become less frequent over northern China in the recent years, as result of weakened cold surge activity, reinforced precipitation, and improved vegetation condition. State-of-the-art climate models are capable of reproducing some features of the mean climate and extreme climate events. However, discrepancies among models in simulating and projecting the mean and extreme climate are also demonstrated by many recent studies. Regional models with higher resolutions often perform better than global models. To predict and project climate variations and extremes, many new approaches and schemes based on dynamical models, statistical methods, or their combinations have been developed, resulting in improved skills. With the improvements of climate model capability and resolution as well as our understanding of regional climate variability and extremes, these new approaches and techniques are expected to further improve the prediction and projection on regional climate variability and extremes over China in the future.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100521457.pdf


11) Zhu, Y. L., 2012: Variations of the summer Somali and Australia cross-equatorial flows and the implications for the Asian summer monsoon. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 29(3), 509-513 <摘要> PDF

The temporal variations during 1948&ndash;2010 and vertical structures of the summer Somali and Australia cross-equatorial flows (CEFs) and the implications for the Asian summer monsoon were explored in this study. The strongest southerly and northerly CEFs exist at 925 hPa and 150 hPa level, respectively. The low-level Somali (LLS) CEFs were significantly connected with the rainfall in most regions of India (especially the monsoon regions), except in a small area in southwest India. In comparison to the climatology, the lowlevel Australia (LLA) CEFs exhibited stronger variations at interannual time scale and are more closely connected to the East Asian summer monsoon circulation than to the LLS CEFs.<br /> The East Asian summer monsoon circulation anomalies related to stronger LLA CEFs were associated with less water vapor content and less rainfall in the region between the middle Yellow River and Yangtze River and with more water vapor and more rainfall in southern China. The sea-surface temperature anomalies east of Australia related to summer LLA CEFs emerge in spring and persist into summer, with implications for the seasonal prediction of summer rainfall in East Asia. The connection between the LLA CEFs and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall may be partly due to its linkage with El Nino-Southern Oscillation. In addition, both the LLA and LLS CEFs exhibited interdecadal shifts in the late 1970s and the late 1990s, consistent with the phase shifts of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100552688.pdf


12) 王会军,孙建奇,祝亚丽, 2012: 中国极端气候及东亚地区能量和水分循环研究的若干近期进展. 自然杂志, 34(1), 10-18 <摘要> PDF

本文介绍了国家重点基础研究计划项目全球变暖背景下东亚能量和水分循环变异及其对我国极端气候的影响(2009-2013)一年多来的若干主要科学进展,包括对于东亚不同典型下垫面能量和水分循环过程的新认识中国极端气候事件的观测事实分析及其与能量和水分循环变异的联系、短期气候预测新方法以及中国未来气候变化预估等方面。最后概要介绍了项目后续的主要研究计划。

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100639331.pdf


13) Zhu,Y. L. H. J. Wang, W. Zhou, and J. H. Ma, 2011: Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation. Climate Dynamics, 36, 1463-1473 <摘要> PDF

This study documents the decadal changes of the summer precipitation in East China, with increased rainfall in the Huang-Huai River region (HR) and decreased in the Yangtze River region (YR) during 2000&ndash;2008 in comparison to 1979&ndash;1999. The main features of the atmospheric circulation related to the increased precipitation in the HR are the strengthened ascending motion and slightly increased air humidity, which is partly due to the weakened moisture transport out of the HR to the western tropical Pacific (associated with the weakened westerly over East Asia and the warming center over the Lake Baikal). The rainfall decrease in the YR is related to the weakened ascending motion and reduced water vapor content, which is mainly related to the weakened southwesterly moisture flux into the YR (associated with the eastward recession of the Western Pacific Subtropical High). The global sea surface temperature (SST) also shows significant changes during 2000&ndash;2008 relative to 1979&ndash;1999. The shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) to a negative phase probably induces the warming over the Lake Baikal and the weakened westerly jet through the air-sea interaction in the Pacific, and thus changes the summer precipitation pattern in East China. Numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model, with prescribed all-Pacific SST anomalies of 2000&ndash;2008 relative to 1979&ndash;1999, also lend support to the PDO&rsquo;s contribution to the warming over the Lake Baikal and the weakened westerlies over East China.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100253376.pdf


14) Zhu, Y. L., 2011: A seasonal prediction model for the summer rainfall in Northeast China using the year-to-year increment approach. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4, 146-150 <摘要> PDF

Using the year-to-year increment approach, this study investigated the relationship of selected climatic elements with the increment time series of the summer rainfall between successive years in Northeast China, including the soil moisture content, sea surface temperature, 500 hPa geopotential height, and sea level pressure in the preceding spring for the period 1981–2008. Two spring predictors were used to construct the seasonal prediction model: the area mean soil moisture content in Northwest Eurasia and the 500 hPa geopotential height over Northeast China. Both the cross-validation and comparison with previous studies showed that the above two predictors have good predicting ability for the summer rainfall in Northeast China.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100419320.pdf


15) Sun, B., Y. L. Zhu, H. J. Wang, 2011: The Recent Interdecadal and Interannual Variation of Water Vapor Transport over Eastern China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 28(5), 1039-1048 <摘要> PDF

The climatological characteristics and interdecadal variability of the water vapor transport and budget over the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys (YH1) and the Yangtze River-Huaihe River valleys (YH2) of East China were investigated in this study, using the NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis datasets from 1979 to 2009. Changes in the water vapor transport pattern occurred during the late 1990s over YH1 (YH2) that corresponded with the recent interdecadal changes in the eastern China summer precipitation pattern. The net moisture influx in the YH1 increased and the net moisture influx in the YH2 decreased during 2000&ndash;2009 in comparison to 1979&ndash;1999. Detailed features in the moisture flux and transport changes across the four boundaries were explored. The altered water vapor transport over the two domains can be principally attributed to the additive effects of the changes in the confluent southwesterly moisture flow by the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon (related with the eastward recession of the western Pacific subtropical high). The altered water vapor transport over YH1 was also partly caused by the weakened midlatitude westerlies.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100450541.pdf


16) Zhu, Y. L., and H. J. Wang, 2010: The relationship between the Aleutian Low and the Australian summer monsoon at interannual time scales. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27, 177-184 <摘要> PDF

The relationship between the boreal winter (December, January, February) Aleutian Low (AL) and the simultaneous Australian summer monsoon (ASM) is explored in this study. A signi&macr;cant correlation is found between the North Paci&macr;c index (NPI) and ASM index, the bulk of which is attributed to the significant correlation after late 1970s. Significant differences in precipitation and outgoing long-wave radiation between typical negative and positive NPI years appear over the ASM area. A regression analysis of the circulation pattern against the NPI during the three months is performed separately. We propose that the NPI is related with the ASM circulation possibly through the changes in the upper level westerly jet. In a typical negative NPI (strong Aleutian Low) year, the jet is greatly reinforced and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the south is thus excited, from which the easterly wind anomalies flowing into the ASM region emanate. Further, strong sinking motion over the northern entrance region of the jet is enhanced, and the local Hadley circulation anomaly between the ASM region and the coast of East Asia is strengthened. In this way, anomalous upward motion over the ASM area can thus be strengthened, and the convective activity intensified. Then the monsoon rainfall over ASM area is increased. An asymmetric connection between AL and the monsoon is found in this study.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100319386.pdf


17) Zhu, Y. L., 2009: The Antarctic Oscillation-East Asian Summer Monsoon Connections in NCEP-1 and ERA-40. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26, 707-716 <摘要> PDF

Connections between the spring Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in two reanalysis datasets&mdash;NCEP-1 (NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1) and ERA-40 (ECMWF 40-year Reanalysis)&mdash;are investigated in this study. Both show significant correlation between AAO and EASM rainfall over the Yangtze River valley, especially after about 1985. Though ERA-40 shows weaker anomalous signals connecting AAO and EASM over southern high latitudes than NCEP-1, both datasets reveal similar connecting patterns between them. A wave-train-like pattern appears in the upper levels, from southern high latitudes through east of Australia and from the Maritime Continent to East Asia. In positive AAO years, the cross equatorial southeasterly flow over the Maritime Continent in the lower levels is strengthened, the specific humidity of the whole atmosphere over East Asia increases, and convective activity is enhanced; thus the summer rainfall over East Asia increases. The spring AAO-EASM connection may be better represented in ERA-40.

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100227851.pdf


18) 祝亚丽,王会军, 2008: 基于IPCC AR4 耦合模式的南极涛动和北极涛动的模拟及未来变化预估. 气象学报, 66, 993-1004[Zhu, Y. L., H. J. Wang, 2010: The Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations in the IPCC AR4 Coupled Models, Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 24(2), 176-188.] <摘要> PDF

本文评估了参加政府间气候变化委员会第4次评估报告 (IPCC AR4) 的耦合模式对南极涛动和北极涛动的模拟能力。分析了24个模式对1970-1999年南极涛动和北极涛动的模拟效能,并与两套再分析资料ERA-40 和NCEP-1 进行了对比分析。结果表明,模式的模拟能力具有一定的季节依赖性,冬季模拟能力最好。大多数模式对南极涛动空间结构和时间序列趋势的模拟好于北极涛动。根据Taylor图选出具有较好模拟能力的模式并做集合分析,发现经过选取的模式集合可以明显改善模式的模拟能力。分析SRES A1B情景下的南极涛动和北极涛动的模拟、预估结果表明:1970-2099年,南极涛动和北极涛动指数均呈持续上升趋势,北极涛动指数增长略显平稳。相对于1970-1999 年、2060-2089 年两半球的海平面气压场均呈现极区气压降低、中纬度气压升高的形态,同样表明南、北极涛动在后一时段更强。因此,在气候变暖背景下,南、北极涛动将持续增强,21世纪中期的臭氧恢复可能不会显著影响这种趋势。

http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100120236.pdf (中文版)
http://nzc.iap.ac.cn/uploadfile/2016/0506/20160506100151568.pdf (英文版)

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