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姓 名:孙建奇
职 务:主任
职 称:研究员
研究方向:中高纬气候动力学、气候预测、极端气候
进所时间:0000-00-00
教育
1997.09-2001.06,兰州大学大气科学系,获理学学士学位
2001.09-2006.06,中国科学院大气物理研究所,获理学博士学位
研究经历
2006.06-2009.12,中国科学院大气物理研究所助理研究
2010.01-2012.04,中国科学院大气物理研究所副研究员  2012.04-2014.01,中国科学院大气物理研究所项目研究员  2014.01至今,中国科学院大气物理研究所研究员 
任职经历
2013年12月至今,《大气科学》常务编委 2014年11月至今,《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》责任编辑
研究项目
近些年主持的科研项目主要有:科技部973项目课题一项,中科院知识创新工程重要方向课题一项,气象行业专项项目一项,中科院战略性先导科技专项子课题一项,基金委项目共五项。
重要著作

代表著作:

1) Sun, J. and H.J. Wang, 2012: Changes of the connection between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Asian summer rainfall. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 117, D08110, 12 PP <摘要>

In this study, the relationship between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) and the East Asian summer rainfall was statistically diagnosed based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year and interim reanalysis data (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim) as well as precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). The results show that the decadal change of the SNAO pattern around the late 1970s significantly enhanced its connection with summer rainfall over central and northern East Asia. Over the period before the late 1970s, the SNAO-related circulations were dominant over the North Atlantic region. Consequently, there was a weak connection between the SNAO and the East Asian summer rainfall. However, over the period after the late 1970s, the SNAO pattern experienced a decadal change, with the southern center shifting eastward. Such changes in the SNAO pattern can alter the stationary wave activity over the Eurasian Continent, producing an anomalous meridional dipole pattern over East Asia. This dipole pattern can then change the divergence circulation, vertical motion, water vapor, and total cloud cover, which would consequently provide beneficial conditions for more (less) summer rainfall over central (northern) East Asia in a positive (negative)-phase SNAO year.

2) 孙建奇,王会军,袁薇, 2011: 我国极端高温事件的年代际变化及与大气环流的联系. 气候与环境研究, 16(2), 199-208 <摘要>

利用1957~2004年全国181个气象台站观测逐日最高气温,分析了我国年平均极端高温事件(Extreme Hot Events,EHE)日数、强度、最早发生日期(EHE Onset Date, EHE_OD)和最迟发生日期(EHE Termination Date,EHE_TD)的气候态及年代际变化的时空特征。气候态分析结果显示,EHE的主要高发区位于我国东南部和新疆地区,其年际变率的较大区主要位于我国东部,新疆地区相对较小。我国EHE在过去48年中存在明显的年代际变化特征,其中发生日数与强度变化一致,EHE_OD和EHE_TD的变化相类似。按照EHE的时空变化特征,可将我国分为南部、中部、北方东部和北方西部4个区。南部地区EHE的多发期主要集中在20世纪60和80年代,中部地区为60和90年代,北方地区为90年代。进而对造成这4个区域EHE发生异常的年际和年代际大气环流因子进行分析,结果表明影响其年际和年代际变化的大气环流型是一致的。对北方地区而言,影响因子主要是对流层中高层的位势高度异常;而影响我国中部和南部地区的因子,除了其上空中高层的位势高度异常外,低层冷暖平流输送的作用也非常重要,这两个因子的共同作用造成该地EHE的异常。

3) Sun Jianqi and Ahn Joong Bae, 2011: A GCM-based forecasting model for the landfall of tropical cyclones in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 28(5), 1049–1055, DOI: 10.1007/s00376-011-0122-8 <摘要>

A statistical dynamic model for forecasting Chinese landfall of tropical cyclones (CLTCs) was developed based on the empirical relationship between the observed CLTC variability and the hindcast atmospheric circulations from the Pusan National University coupled general circulation model (PNU-CGCM). In the last 31 years, CLTCs have shown strong year-to-year variability, with a maximum frequency in 1994 and a minimum frequency in 1987. Such features were well forecasted by the model. A cross-validation test showed that the correlation between the observed index and the forecasted CLTC index was high, with a coefficient of 0.71. The relative error percentage (16.3%) and root-mean-square error (1.07) were low. Therefore the coupled model performs well in terms of forecasting CLTCs; the model has potential for dynamic forecasting of landfall of tropical cyclones.

4) Yu Entao, Wang Huijun, and Sun Jianqi, 2011: A Quick Report on a Dynamical Downscaling Simulation over China using the Nested Model. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 3, 325-329 <摘要>

This paper describes a dynamical downscaling simulation over China using the nested model system, which consists of the modified Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) nested with the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Results show that dynamical downscaling is of great value in improving the model simulation of regional climatic characteristics. WRF simulates regional detailed temperature features better than CAM. With the spatial correlation coefficient between the observation and the simulation increasing from 0.54 for CAM to 0.79 for WRF, the improvement in precipitation simulation is more perceptible with WRF. Furthermore, the WRF simulation corrects the spatial bias of the precipitation in the CAM simulation.

5) Yuan Wei, Sun Jianqi, Yu Xiaoding, Chen Mingxuan, Xiao Xian, 2011: Useful precursor weather conditions for the hail-event forecasting in the Beijing-Tianjin region. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(3) , 168-172 <摘要>

Hail is one of the important weather disasters that affects the Beijing-Tianjin (BT) region. To better understand and to improve the forecasting of hail events over the BT region, the precursor weather conditions for hail based on 30 previous hail events were derived. It was found that the high-level trough and low-level cold front over the Mongolian region, the accumulated convective available potential energy, the decrease of the height of the 0&deg;C-isotherm in the morning, and the persistence and intensification of these factors from morning to afternoon are valuable clues for forecasting the occurrence of hail events over the BT region.

6) 陈活泼,孙建奇, 2011: 我国夏季降水及相关大气环流场未来变化的预估及不确定性分析. 气候与环境研究, , <摘要>

7) Qian Zhuolei, Wang Huijun, Sun Jianqi, 2011: The Hindcast of Winter and Spring Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation with the Coupled Climate Models. Acta Meteorological Sinica, 25(3), 340-354 <摘要>

This study evaluates the ability of the global coupled climate models in hindcasting the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). The results show that the models can well simulate the spatial distribution of AO with better results in winter than in spring. In the troposphere in spring, the simulation of AO on the whole is still relatively good with a comparatively high correlation with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The models can also well reproduce the spatial distribution of AAO throughout the year at all levels of the troposphere, and the spatial simulation is better at 850 hPa than at the surface. Although the simulation is better in winter than in other seasons, the seasonal variation is not so significant and the differences among different models are relatively small. In addition, the capability of the models for &ldquo;predicting&rdquo; the AO and the AAO index time series is limited, because only a few models can capture their observed interannual variability at the 95% significance level.<br />

8) 孙建奇,陈活泼, 2011: DEMETER耦合气候模式对西北太平洋台风活动及其影响因子的预测效能. 科学通报, , <摘要>

9) Chen Huopo, Sun Jianqi, Chen Xiaoli, Zhou Wen, 2010: CGCM projections of heavy rainfall events in China. International Journal of Climatology, , DOI: 10.1002/joc.2278 <摘要>

This paper discusses projections of heavy rainfall events in China during the 21st century based on daily precipitation data from the Fourth Assessment Report&rsquo;s (AR4) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCM). Results show that all three experimental scenarios (scenarios A2, A1B, and B1) project consistent changes in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall at the end of 21st century. In the regions of Northeast China and North China, there are no significant changes in frequency but there are remarkable increases in intensity of heavy rainfall, indicating that enhanced intensity is the main contributor to increased ratios of heavy rainfall to total annual precipitation in these regions. In regions of the lower reaches of Yangtze River and South China, increases in the amount of heavy rainfall are closely associated with increased frequency and increased intensity. Projected frequencies of heavy rainfall at the end of 21st century increase by 30.9 &sim; 56.6% in the Yangtze River and 35.9 &sim; 50.2% in South China compared to the period of 1980&ndash;1999, and projected intensities increase by 1.0 &sim; 5.7% and 2.8 &sim; 6.3%, respectively. Additionally, the ratios of heavy rainfall to total annual precipitation increase by 2.3 &sim; 5.4% in the Yangtze River and 1.8 &sim; 3.8% in South China. The significant increases of heavy rainfall ratios indicate that as the climate warms, heavy rainfall events are expected to increase at rates that are much faster than increases in total precipitation amounts, indicating that China will experience increased amounts of flooding. These results are substantially consistent among the three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios. The increased probability of heavy rainfall events in China is closely connected with increased transportation of water vapour from the Arabian Sea and the South China Sea. Additionally, atmosphere stratification has become increasingly unstable, which has provided a favorable background for the initiation of heavy rainfall at the end of the<br /> 21st century.

10) Sun Jianqi, Wang Huijun, Yuan Wei, 2010: Linkage of the Boreal Spring Antarctic Oscillation to the West African Summer Monsoon,. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 88(1), 15-28 <摘要>

The relationship between the boreal spring (or the austral autumn) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) (March- April) and the West African summer monsoon (WASM) (June-September) is analyzed based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results show that the linkage of the boreal spring AAO to the WASM exhibits decadal-scale variations: a strong connection between the two appears over the period 1985-2006 and a weak connection over the period 1970-1984. Further analysis indicates that such an unstable relationship between the two results from the modulation by ENSO events to a large extent.<br /> <br /> A possible mechanism for the impacts of the boreal spring AAO on the WASM is also discussed. The variability of the boreal spring tropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) appears to serve as a bridge linking these two systems. The boreal spring AAO produces an anomalous SST over the tropical South Atlantic by exciting an equatorward Rossby wave train over the western Southern Hemisphere (SH). This AAO-related SST anomaly modulates the meridional gradient of moist static energy (MSE) between the Sahel and the Guinea-tropical Atlantic region in the boreal spring. The MSE gradient is of paramount importance for the changes from spring to summer in the West African monsoon because its relaxation along the seasonal cycle is linked to the northward excursion of the WASM system into the African continent. Therefore, an anomalous AAO-related MSE gradient can lead to anomalous Sahel rainfall in the early summer. When this rainfall occurs over the Sahel, the local positive soil moisture-rainfall feedback plays a crucial role in sustaining and prolonging this rainfall anomaly throughout the whole summer.

11) Sun Jianqi, Wang Huijun, Yuan Wei, 2010: Spatial-temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D16110, doi:10.1029/2009JD013541 <摘要>

The statistical spatial-temporal features of the intense snowfall event (ISE) in China are investigated over the period of 1962&ndash;2000. The results indicate that eastern China, northern Xinjiang, the eastern Tibetan plateau, and northeastern China are four key regions for the ISE, with more frequency and strong variability. Annual cycle analysis shows the ISE exhibits a unimodal distribution with maximum frequency at winter months for eastern China, a bimodal distribution with maximum frequency at early winter and spring months for northern Xinjiang and northeastern China, and a bimodal distribution with maximum frequency at autumn and spring months for the eastern Tibetan plateau. Linear trend analysis indicates that in the last 39 years, the ISE exhibits a decreasing trend for eastern China and an increasing trend for northern Xinjiang and the eastern Tibetan plateau. The linear trend of the ISE is weak over northeastern China. Based on the simulations of the most recent and comprehensive climate models in the 20th century run, the performance of the current climate models in simulating the Chinese ISE is investigated. The results indicate that, of the 20 models, there are four models that can reasonably reproduce the spatial-temporal features of the Chinese ISE. Based on these four models&#39; simulation for the 21st century under A1B and A2 scenarios, the future variability of the Chinese ISE is projected. It is found that global warming will cause the ISE frequency over southern China to decrease, while the ISE over northern China will initially increase and then decrease.

12) Zhang Ying, Wang Huijun, Sun Jianqi, Helge DRANGE, 2010: Changes in the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index over the Western North Paci¯c in the SRES A2 Scenario. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 27(6), 1246-1258 <摘要>

The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Index (GPI) was employed to investigate possible impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Paci&macr;c (WNP). The outputs of 20th cen- tury climate simulation by eighteen GCMs were used to evaluate the models&#39; ability to reproduce tropical cyclone genesis via the GPI. The GCMs were found in general to reasonably reproduce the observed spatial<br /> distribution of genesis. Some of the models also showed ability in capturing observed temporal variation.<br /> Based on the evaluation, the models (CGCM3.1-T47 and IPSL-CM4) found to perform best when repro- ducing both spatial and temporal features were chosen to project future GPI. Results show that both of these models project an upward trend of the GPI under the SRES A2 scenario, however the rate of increase di&reg;ers between them.

13) Sun Jianqi, 2010: Possible Impact of the Boreal Spring Antarctic Oscillation on the North American Summer Monsoon. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 3(4), 232–236 <摘要>

<table width="100%"> <tbody> <tr> <td class="abstract"> <div id="abstc_522" style="display: block">This study examined the relationship between the boreal spring (April-May) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and the North American summer monsoon (NASM) (July-September) for the period of 1979-2008. The results show that these two systems are closely related. When the spring AAO was stronger than normal, the NASM tended to be weaker, and there was less rainfall over the monsoon region. The opposite NASM situation corresponded to a weaker spring AAO. Further analysis explored the possible mechanism for the delayed impact of the boreal spring AAO on the NASM. It was found that the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) plays an important role in the connection between the two phenomena. The variability of the boreal spring AAO can produce anomalous SSTs over the tropical Atlantic. These SST anomalies can persist from spring to summer and can influence the Bermuda High, affecting water vapor transportation to the monsoon region. Through these processes, the boreal spring AAO exerts a significantly delayed impact on the amount of NASM precipitation. Thus, information about the boreal spring AAO is valuable for the prediction of the NASM.</div> </td> </tr> <tr height="20"> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

14) Chen Huopo, Sun Jianqi, 2009: How the “Best” Models Project the Future Precipitation Change in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26(4), 773–782, doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8211-7 <摘要>

Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three &ldquo;best&rdquo; models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation in China makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. All the three scenarios experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in China in the 21st century. However, the projected summer precipitationin China demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. The projected increase in precipitation in South China is significant and persistent, as well as in North China. Meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century, the region of Northeast China is projected to be much drier than the present. But, this situation changes and the precipitation intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%&ndash;20.4% at the end of the 21st century. The region of the Xinjiang Province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%&ndash;3.6% at the end of the 21st century. There is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. A high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional recipitation change in some parts of China is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the B1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the A2 scenario.

15) Wang Huijun, Sun Jianqi, 2009: Variability of Northeast China River Break-up Date. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26(4), 701–706, doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9035-1 <摘要>

This paper investigates the variability of the break-up dates of the rivers in Northeast China from their icebound states for the period of 1957&ndash;2005 and explores some potential explanatory mechanisms. Results show that the break-up of the two major rivers (the Heilongjiang River and Songhuajiang River) was about four days earlier, and their freeze-up was about 4&ndash;7 days delayed, during 1989&ndash;2005 as compared<br /> to 1971&ndash;1987. This interdecadal variation is evidently associated with the warming trend over the past 50 years. In addition, the break-up and freeze-up dates have large interannual variability, with a standard deviation of about 10&ndash;15 days. The break-up date is primarily determined by the January&ndash; February&ndash; March mean surface air temperature over the Siberian-Northeast China region via changes in the melting rate,ice thickness, and snow cover over the ice cover. The interannual variability of the break-up date is also significantly connected with the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), with a correlation coefficient of 0.35&ndash;0.55 based on the data from four stations along the two rivers. This relationship is attributed to the fact that the NAM can modulate the East Asian winter monsoon circulation and Siberian-Northeast China surface air temperature in January&ndash;February&ndash;March.

16) Sun Jianqi, Wang Huijun, Yuan Wei, 2009: A possible mechanism for the co-variability of the boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation and the Yangtze River valley summer rainfall. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 1276-1284, doi:10.1002/joc.1773 <摘要>

A significant correlation between the boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) and the Yangtze River valley summer rainfall (YRVSR) has been found in previous studies, although the mechanisms that might lead to such far-reaching teleconnection remain unresolved. In this study, one of possible mechanisms responsible for the co-variability of the boreal spring AAO and the YRVSR is proposed. It follows that the convection activity over the region of the Maritime Continent serves as a bridge linking the boreal spring AAO and the YRVSR. This physical process can be described schematically as follows: during the boreal spring, a positive-phase (negative-phase) AAO is concurrent with a strong (weak) convection activity over the region of the Maritime Continent via anomalous meridional circulations along the central South Pacific and two meridional teleconnection wave train patterns, with one over the southern Indian Ocean at the lower level and the other along the central South Pacific at the upper level. Thereafter, the anomalous convection propagates northward along the seasonal cycle, and then changes the western Pacific subtropical high in the following seasons, consequently impacting on the summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valley.

17) Sun Jianqi, Yuan Wei,, 2009: Contribution of the sea surface temperature over the Mediterranean-Black Sea to the decadal change of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26(4), 717–726, doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8210-8 <摘要>

Recent observational study has shown that the southern center of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) was located farther eastward after the late 1970s compared to before. In this study, the cause for this phenomenon is explored. The result shows that the eastward shift of the SNAO southern center after the late 1970s is related to the variability of the Mediterranean-Black Sea (MBS) SST. A warm MBS SST can heat and moisten its overlying atmosphere, consequently producing a negative sea level pressure (SLP) departure over the MBS region. Because the MBS SST is negatively correlated with the SNAO, the negative SLP departure can enhance the eastern part of the negative-phase of the SNAO southern center, consequently producing an eastward SNAO southern center shift. Similarly, a cold MBS SST produces an eastward positive-phase SNAO southern center shift. The reason for why the MBS SST has an impact on the SNAO after the late 1970s but why it is not<br /> the case beforehand is also discussed. It is found that this instable relationship is likely to be attributed to the change of the variability of the MBS SST on the decadal time-scale. In 1951&ndash;1975, the variability of the MBS SST is quite weak, but in 1978&ndash;2002, it becomes more active. The active SST can enhance the interaction between the sea and its overlying atmosphere, thus strengthening the connection between the MBS SST and the SNAO after the late 1970s. The above observational analysis results are further confirmed by sensitivity experiments.<br />

18) 孙建奇,王会军,袁薇, 2009: 2007年3月中国东部北方地区一次强灾害性暴风雪事件的成因初探. 气象学报, 67(3), 469-477 <摘要>

2007年3月3&mdash;5日,中国东部北方地区发生了近50年来历史同期最强的一次暴风雪事件,给该地造成了严重的灾害和损失。通过分析这次暴风雪事件发生前期和同期的大尺度大气环流异常,探讨形成这次极端天气的可能物理机制。研究结果表明,在这次暴风雪事件发生的前两周中,存在持续异常的北极涛动、南极涛动、欧亚型遥相关以及北太平洋涛动等大气模态。这些异常环流在中国东部沿岸地区引起了强劲的偏南风,由此给中国东部北方地区源源不断地输送暖湿空气,使得该地的水汽含量和气温不断升高,为这次暴风雪事件的发生准备了良好的暖空气条件。当3月初大气环流发生调整,极地冷空气南下时,强劲的冷、暖空气交汇于中国东部北方地区,从而在该地形成了强大的冷锋系统,最终导致了这次强暴风雪事件的发生。研究结果表明,在预报与降水相关的天气时,必须考虑事发前期异常大气环流的信息,关注预报区域前期水汽的积累状况,这对于提高降水预报、特别是强降水预报的水平有着重要的意义。

19) Sun Jianqi, Wang Huijun, Yuan Wei, 2009: Role of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature in the decadal change of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D20110, doi:10.1029/2009JD012395 <摘要>

Recent observational studies have shown that the southern center of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) shifted eastward after the late 1970s. In this study, this phenomenon and its causes are further explored. It is found that the decadal spatial shift of the SNAO southern center is related to the decadal variability of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (TASST). In the past half century, the TASST experienced an abrupt change around the late 1970s, with a rapid warming in the recent 2 decades. Thus in the period after the late 1970s when the TASST is relatively warmer, the TASST released more energy into the atmosphere, then stimulated strong convection over the tropical Atlantic, and further excited anomalous wave-like patterns. This strengthened the circulation in the region of the Mediterranean Sea, namely the east part of the SNAO southern center, consequently leading to an eastward shift of the SNAO southern center. Meanwhile, in the period before the late 1970s when the TASST is relatively cooler, the TASST released less energy into the atmosphere, so its impact on the overlying atmosphere was significantly weakened and confined to the lower-level atmosphere of the tropical Atlantic. Thus the TASST possibly did not influence the variability of the SNAO southern center, and the SNAO pattern exhibited a traditional distribution with two centers over the North Atlantic.

20) Yuan Wei, Sun Jianqi, 2009: Enhancement of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation Influence on Northern Hemisphere Air Temperature. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26(6) , 1209-1214, doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-8148-x. <摘要>

This study investigates the relationship between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) and the simultaneous Northern Hemisphere (NH) land surface air temperature (SAT) by using the Climate Research Unit (CRU) data. The results show that the SNAO is related to NH land SAT, but this linkage has varied on decadal timescales over the last 52 years, with a strong connection appearing after the late 1970s, but a weak connection before. The mechanism governing the relationship between the SNAO and NH land SAT is discussed based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results indicate that such a variable relationship may result from changes of the SNAO mode around the late 1970s. The SNAO pattern was centered mainly over the North Atlantic before the late 1970s, and thus had a weak influence on the NH land SAT. But after the late 1970s, the SNAO pattern shifted eastward and its southern center was enhanced in magnitude and extent, which transported the SNAO signal to the North Atlantic surrounding continents and even to central East Asia via an upper level wave train along the Asian jet.

21) Jiang Dabang, Zhang Ying, Sun Jianqi, 2009: Ensemble projection of 1–3oC warming in China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 54(18), 3326–3334 <摘要>

Studies on the influences of climate change on biogeochemical cycles and on the key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change suggest that annual surface temperature rise of 1℃, 2℃ and 3℃ above the present level would lead to changes in extreme weather and climate events, food production, fresh water resources, biodiversity, human mortality, etc. Here two sets of simulations as performed with seventeen atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), i.e. the model outputs from the 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) and from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) emission scenarios B1, A1B and A2, are used to analyze spatial and temporal characteristics of the above values in China over the 21st century. The results indicate that the rate of warming varies from region to region. The above values are reached much later (earlier) when emission amount is lower (higher), and spread of the time when the lower (higher) value is exceeded is narrower (wider) among the three scenarios. As far as the spatial pattern is concerned, the above values are crossed much earlier in northern China and the Tibetan Plateau with respect to the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley and South China.

22) 袁薇, 邹立尧, 孙建奇, 2009: 1961-2005年新疆地区夏季气温的时空变化特征及其与大气环流的关系. 冰川冻土, 31(15), <摘要>

利用1961-2005年新疆地区最为齐全的整编台站观测资料集, 分析了新疆地区夏季气温的时空变化特征, 并探讨了引起这种时空变化的大气环流因子. 结果表明: 新疆地区的夏季气温首先表现出整体一致性的变化, 在过去的45 a中全疆气温持续上升, 这与全球变暖的大背景相一致. 影响新疆全疆夏季气温变化的主要大气环流因子为贝加尔湖附近高压脊的异常, 当其偏强时, 新疆地区夏季气温偏高, 反之则偏低. 新疆地区夏季气温第二类变化模态为南、北两疆反向的特征, 这种变化模态主要表现在气温的年际时间尺度上. 新疆南、北两疆气温反相变化主要是由伊朗高压和乌拉尔地区高压脊的变化所控制. 当这两个大气环流系统在新疆地区造成中高层位势高度南北向正负异常时, 新疆地区以天山为界夏季气温表现出反向的变化特征。

23) 王会军, 孙建奇, 苏京志, 2008: 北极涛动比南极涛动纬向对称性更好. 科学通报, 53(2), 247-250 <摘要>

Fan (2007)最近从年际变化的角度研究了南极涛动的纬向不对称性问题. 利用观测和再分析资料以及海气耦合模式的模拟试验研究了北极涛动的纬向不对称性. 结果表明: 北极涛动同样存在纬向不对称性, 然而, 北极涛动的纬向不对称性显著地弱于南极涛动. 这出乎意料, 因为北半球海陆分布的纬向不对称性远远比南半球大. 进一步的分析表明: 1959~1998 年北极涛动的东西两个半球的分量之间相关系数0.54, 远大于南极涛动的东西两个半球分量之间的相关系数(0.23). 研究提出, ENSO 可能是造成南极涛动和北极涛动的纬向不对称性差异的原因. 分析与南方涛动相关联的海平面气压场可以发现: 在北半球中高纬区的纬向不对称性要显著地弱于南半球的情况, 从而导致北极涛动的纬向不对称性要显著小于南极涛动. 利用一个海气耦合模式进行了敏感性试验, 初步研究了热带海气耦合作用对北极涛动纬向不对称性的影响。

24) 王会军, 孙建奇, 郎咸梅, 陈丽娟, 符伟伟, 2008: 几年来我国气候年际变异和短期气候预测研究的一些新成果. 大气科学, 32(4), 806-814 <摘要>

为了热烈庆祝中国科学院大气物理研究所成立80 周年(1928~2008 年) , 作者谨就五年来中国科学院大气物理研究所的科学家们完成的关于我国气候变异和气候预测方面的研究工作若干新成果作一些非常概要性的介绍, 个中也包含一点所外科学家的工作。不周和不当之处只有请读者海涵和批评指正了。本文介绍的主要进展有三个方面: 关于我国气候年际变异的研究、ENSO 预测研究和数值气候预测研究。

25) 孙建奇, 袁薇, 高玉中, 2008: 阿拉伯半岛-北太平洋型遥相关及其与亚洲夏季风的关系. 中国科学D辑: 地球科学, 38(6), 750-762 <摘要>

利用相关分析和经验正交分解方法对过去57a NCEP-NCAR 夏季亚洲-北太平洋地区海平面气压场进行了分析, 揭示了一种新的遥相关模态, 即阿拉伯半岛-北太平洋型遥相关(Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation,APNPO). 研究表明, APNPO 在本质上反映的是对流层低层北太平洋高压和南亚夏季风低压之间的一种共变特征, 它的变化与亚洲夏季风的变化之间有着密切的联系. 在年际尺度上, APNPO 与东亚夏季风(East Asian summer monsoon, EASM)和南亚夏季风(South Asian summer monsoon, SASM)均存在显著的关联; 在年代际尺度上, 该遥相关与东亚夏季风的关系更为密切: 两者均在20 世纪60 年代中期和70 年代末发生了两次明显的年代际突变. 通过分析与APNPO 相关的环流场, 探讨了APNPO 与亚洲夏季风联系的物理过程. 发现当APNPO 偏强时, 索马里急流、SASM 气流、EASM 气流以及南亚高压均得到加强, 同时还通过高层的纬向波列在中国东北地区上空形成了一个异常的反气旋性环流. 此外, 强的APNPO 还可加强对亚洲季风区的水汽输送, 由此在印度半岛及中国华北地区造成强的水汽辐合. 所有的这些大气环流和水汽条件的改变最终导致亚洲夏季风及印度和中国华北地区降水的异常. 研究还发现APNPO 的变化从春到夏具有较好的持续性, 春季的APNPO 与亚洲夏季风变化也存在显著的相关关系. 从这个意义上讲, 春季APNPO 变化的超前性对于后期亚洲夏季风降水的预测具有潜在的重要参考价值。

26) Sun Jianqi, Wang Huijun, Yuan Wei, 2008: Decadal variations of the relationship between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and middle East Asian air temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D15107, doi:10.1029/2007JD009626 <摘要>

The relationship between the summer (July&ndash;September) North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) and simultaneous East Asian air temperature is investigated. The results show that the SNAO is related to middle East Asian summer air temperature, however this linkage varies with time on decadal timescale: a strong connection appears after the late 1970s but a weak connection before the late 1970s. Further analysis indicates that this instable relationship may have resulted from the shift of the SNAO mode around the late 1970s. In the period of 1979&ndash;2003, the centers of the SNAO mode are located more eastward. A positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO produces a strong lower-level divergence (convergence) over the Asian jet entrance region, in turn stimulates a strong upper-level convergence divergence) via the Ekman pumping. Such a convergence (divergence) then excites a zonally oriented quasi-stationary barotropical Rossby wave train along the Asian upper-level jet. Thus the SNAO ignal is transported eastward to East Asia, resulting in an anomalous summer air temperature over middle East Asia.However, in the period of 1951&ndash;1975, the centers of the SNAO mode are located more westward. The associated upper-level divergence/convergence is away from the Asian jet entrance region, and the SNAO signal cannot be transported eastward to East Asia. Hence the connection is broken.

27) Wang Huijun, Han Jinping, Zhang Qingyun, Sun Jianqi, Jiang Dabang, 2007: Brief review of some CLIVAR-related studies in China. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 24(6), 1037-1048 <摘要>

The Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program is one of the sub-programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). In this paper, CLIVAR related research in China (2003{2006) is briely reviewed, including four major components, namely, low-frequency intraseasonal oscillations, interannual variability, decadal variations in East Asia, and global warming simulations.

28) 王会军, 孙建奇, 范可, 2007: 北太平洋涛动与台风和飓风频次的关系研究. 中国科学D辑:地球科学, 37(7), 966-973 <摘要>

研究了北太平洋涛动(NPO)和西太平洋台风及热带大西洋飓风频次的联系. 结果表明,在1949~1998 年这50 a 间, NPO 和西太平洋台风频次的相关系数是0.37, 而和热带大西洋飓风频次的相关系数是&minus;0.28, 都达到了95%的置信度水平. 进一步的研究揭示: 6~9 月NPO 的变化和西太平洋及热带大西洋区的纬向风垂直切变幅度、海平面气压以及海表面温度、区域大气辐散辐合等存在显著的关联, 而这些气候环境的变化都和台风及飓风生成与发展的热力或动力过程密切相关. 这就是NPO 与台风及飓风频次相联系的原因. 还进一步研究了与NPO 有关的大气遥相关以及两个区域大气环流的变化, 以便进一步理解NPO 和台风及飓风活动频次的联系. 最后分析了一个海气耦合模式的积分结果, 初步印证了由观测资料所得到的结论。

29) 王会军, 范可, 孙建奇, 郎咸梅, 林美静, 2007: 关于西太平洋台风气候变异和预测的若干研究进展. 大气科学, 31(6), 1076-1081 <摘要>

在概述近几十年来关于大气环流和海温等条件与台风活动关系方面以中国学者为主的研究之后, 重点介绍了最近关于西太平洋台风气候年际变异和预测研究的若干新的进展。主要包括: 西太平洋台风活动频次和登陆中国台风的气候年际变化特征, 以及从动力数值模式和动力统计方法两个方面如何进行台风气候的预测。关于台风气候的年际变异, 重点介绍了有关台风气候年际变异和南极涛动、北太平洋涛动、北太平洋海冰覆盖面积指数以及西太平洋暖池热状态之间的联系。关于台风气候的动力数值预测, 介绍了基于中国科学院大气物理研究所的气候模式所进行的第一个针对西太平洋台风气候的预测试验结果。本文还介绍了一个动力统计预测模型及其回报情况。

30) 孙建奇,姜大膀, 2007: 我院与北欧科技合作的一个典范——竺可桢-南森国际研究中心. 中国科学院院刊, 22(4), <摘要>

31) 王会军, 郎咸梅, 范可, 孙建奇, 周广庆, 2006: 关于2006年西太平洋台风活动频次的气候预测试验. 气候与环境研究, 11(2), 133-137 <摘要>

<div id="abstc_268" style="display: block">这是首次利用气候模式对我国2006年夏季西太平洋地区台风活动频次的实时气候预测的报告。根据这个初步的预测试验结果分析,西太平洋地区夏季(6~10月)对流层低层为异常辐散 而高层为异常辐合区,大气顶向外长波辐射为正距平,对流活动异常偏弱;同时,该地区对流层上下层纬向风的切变幅度异常偏大;海洋温度的距乎值很小。综合这些气候背景条件,今年西太平洋的台风生成数量将可能比正常年份偏少一些。当然,由于台风生成发展的复杂性,这一预测还有不确定性。</div>

32) 孙建奇, 王会军, 2006: 东北夏季气温变异的区域差异及其与大气环流和海表温度的关系. 地球物理学报, 49(3), 662-671 <摘要>

利用1951 2000年中国东北地区23个台站资料,对东北夏季气温的时空分布进行了研究,发现其变化除具有整体的一致性外,东北南部和北部的夏季气温在年际和年代际时间尺度都表现出很大不同,其中北部区域的夏季气温在1987 1988年间发生了一次显著的气候突变.另外,剔除夏季气温全区一致变化的年份,南北两区夏季气温与大气环流和海表温度的关系表:突变前,影响北部和南部冷,热夏季的大气环流形势存在显著的不同,关键海域亦有很大差异:影响南部的为中纬度西太平洋和印度洋部分海域,影响北部的主要为ENSO事件;突变后,两区的夏季气温及相应大气环流和关键海区都趋于一致.在整个分析时段内,北部夏季气温与东亚夏季风存在显著负相关,而南部的关系则不明显。

33) 孙建奇, 王会军, 2005: 北极涛动与太平洋年代际振荡的关系. 科学通报, 50(15), 1648-1653 <摘要>

<table width="100%"> <tbody> <tr> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td class="abstract"> <div id="abstc_266" style="display: block">文中研究了年代际时间尺度上冬季(11~3月)北极涛动与太平洋年代际振荡之间的关系. 结果发现, 北极涛动对于太平洋年代际振荡的变化起着重要的作用. 当北极涛动超前太平洋年代际振荡7~8年的时候, 两者的相关关系最好, 相关系数为0.77. 这种年代际时间尺度上的超前性对太平洋年代际振荡的变化有着很好的预测意义. 回归分析和超前滞后相关的结果表明北极涛动与太平洋年代际振荡耦合的关键可能在于阿留申低压: 强的北极涛动导致阿留申低压加深, 进而通过北半球中纬度的海气相互作用影响到太平洋年代际振荡, 反之亦然。</div> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
姓名 职称 研究方向
于水 博士研究生
韩双泽 硕士研究生
吴莎 助理研究员 东亚气候变化
敖娟 冬季气候变化及预测研究
明静 博士研究生 气候动力学
李戎遐

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