【中文介绍】

   通过同时考虑极端降水、极端温度和极端风的强度变化（ΔI）、频率变化（ΔF）和年际变率变化（Δσ），构造了一个区域气候变化指数（Regional Extreme Climatic Change Index，RECCI），用于代表不同区域的极端降水、极端温度以及极端风对气候变化的综合响应。本文将全球陆地区域（80°S-90°N）分为26个子区域。在RCP8.5情景下的未来三个时段（2016-2035、2046-2065、2080-2099），根据RECCI的空间分布，识别并比较每个时段极端气候变化的热点。研究表明，2016-2035年期间，极端气候变化的热点分布在亚马逊、撒哈拉、东非、赤道非洲和赤道非洲南部；2046-2065年期间，对气候变化响应最显著的三个区域是东非、赤道非洲南部和亚马逊地区；2080-2099年期间，响应最剧烈的区域是阿拉斯加和亚马逊地区。由此可见，在RCP8.5情景下，极端气候变化的热点随着时间发生变化，但亚马逊区域是未来三个时段稳定的热点。由季节尺度上RECCI的空间分布可知，极端气候变化的热点会随着季节发生变化。进一步研究表明，在不同季节，极端气候要素对RECCI的贡献不同。以东亚地区为例，极端温度指数的季节性变化比较明显，在夏季，与极端高温相关的指数对该地区RECCI的贡献较大，而在冬季，与极端低温相关的指数较为重要。此外，东亚地区极端指数的"∆F" 对RECCI的贡献比"∆I" 和"∆σ" 大。

  【英文介绍】

    A Regional Extreme Climatic Change Index (RECCI), simultaneously considering the changes in intensity, frequency and interannual variability of three major extreme climatic variables (i.e., precipitation, temperature and wind speed), is constructed to represent regional changes of climate extremes in response to global warming. First, the daily outputs from 13 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 project in both historical and future simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario are used to compute the extreme climatic indices. Second, the RECCI is computed on both annual and seasonal time scales during three periods (i.e., 2016–2035, 2046–2065 and 2080–2099) over 26 subregions. Finally, the spatiotemporal change of the RECCI is investigated, and then, the 26 subregions are classified into four categories for each period. The first category with the largest RECCI value is very sensitive to global warming, which is called hot spots of climate extremes. The results show that most hot spots are not time invariant on annual and seasonal time scales with some exceptions. On the annual time scale, the Amazon Basin is the only persistent hot spot in all three periods. For the seasonal time scale in March‐April‐May, the climate extremes in the Amazon Basin always display the strongest responsiveness to global warming, and the Eastern Africa is the only persistent hot spot in June‐July‐August in three periods. Similar results are also found for the other two seasons and periods. In addition, the change in extreme temperature is crucial over the East Asia with change in frequency prominent.

  【关键图表】

       【引用格式】       

   Xu LL, Wang AH, Wang D, Wang HJ. Hot spots of climate extremes in the future. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2019, 124:3035-3049.