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人为影响增加了中国东部夜间热应激风险

Anthropogenic Influence Has Increased the Nighttime Heat Stress Risks in Eastern China

[2024-09-03]

中文介绍】


         在过去几十年,由于全球变暖的影响,中国东部夏季夜间湿热事件发生频次显著增加、强度增强,严重威胁人体健康安全,尤其影响睡眠质量,增加了死亡风险。本研究基于最优指纹法检测发现,人为因素,特别是温室气体排放,是湿热夜频次和强度变化的主要影响因素。在未来全球不同变暖情景下,中国区域极端湿热夜的强度和频率预计会继续增加,这将导致更多人口暴露于这些极端事件下,尤其是在中国北部地区。因此,采取适当的应对措施,减缓中国东部夜间热应激影响加剧的风险迫在眉睫。


【英文介绍】

       Nights with high temperatures and humidity often bring more fatal consequences during the human sleeping process. A significantly increasing trend in the intensity and frequency of humid‐heat nights has been observed in eastern China from 1961 to 2014. Based on a detection technique, the anthropogenic influence, specifically greenhouse gas forcing, has been identified as the primary driver of these changes. Despite some mitigation, the intensity and frequency of humid‐heat nights are projected to keep increasing under different warming scenarios. Consequently, the population exposed to these events, particularly in northern regions, will continue to grow. Urgent implementation of adaptation measures is crucial to mitigate the escalating risks posed by nighttime heat stress in eastern China.


【关键图表】                                    


                           

 图:单因子和双因子检测分析中中国东部夏季湿热夜(a) (c)强度和(b) (d)频次对不同外强迫响应的尺度因子β的最优估计值(中心点)和5%-95%的不确定性范围(误差棒)                                      

 Fig. Figure. Scaling factors (data points) and their 5%–95% uncertainty range (error bars) resulting from the optimal fingerprint analyses in the (a) (c) intensity and (b) (d) frequency of summer humid-heat nights over eastern China using single-signal and two-signal analyses, respectively.

  


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